Algorithm Plays Out Rest of Season; Kings Make Playoffs 9,800,000 Times (UPDATED)

Terry Murray's secret line-combinators, recently retired.

...because in the time it's taken you to get around to this post, the Kings beat the Devils and, among other things, the new Flames sucked just like the old ones. 

One of my favorite sites is SportsClubStats.com. Essentially, what they do is run computer simulations of seemingly every sporting event (actually, seasons) on the planet. They have an NHL page. It works like this: they use as their starting point today's standings; then they play out the rest of the season, randomly assigning a winner or loser (or OTL/SOL) for each game (there's two versions: a true random "coin toss" model, and one which weights the outcome in favor of the home team and the team with the better record); they play out 10,000,000 seasons and tabulate the various final standings. You're left with a chart that shows  your team's overall chances of making the playoffs and their chances of finishing at each position of the standings. You can also see how each individual game's outcome (from that day's games) will affect your team's odds.

As of today, the King's chances of making the playoffs are

96.1%. 98%

Of all outcomes, the most common were in the 96-106 97-106 point range. The single most common outcome was 100 101 points, which would require a record (from here on) of 15-10-3 15-10-2.

In all outcomes, the magic number of points that is likely to result (i.e. above a 75% chance) in a playoff seed is 92.

At 94 points, the playoffs are a virtual certainty (95% 96.3%).

At 96 points, the playoffs are a certainty.

In 36% 44% of the simulations, the Kings finished 4th. Next likely was 5th (26% 27%), 6th (18% 16%), 7th (10% 7%), 8th (5% 3%), 9th (2% 1%), 10th (1%). All other finishes (1st-3rd, 11th10th-15th) round down to 0%.

A win tomorrow night against the Rangers raises the Kings' odds another 0.7%.

 

Here's the full chart.

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