The Real (Western Conference) Standings - 11/4/10

 

Q OFF.   GP W L WSO LOT PTS W% PRJ W%* PRJ* GB PS +/- PB
1 5 STL 9 5 1 1 2 14 0.778 128 0.667 109 0 5 4
2 2 DET 10 7 2 0 1 15 0.750 123 0.700 115 -0.5 4 5
3 1 LAK 11 6 3 2 0 16 0.727 119 0.727 119 -1 3 6
4 7 CBJ 11 6 4 1 0 14 0.636 104 0.636 104 -2 1 8
5 3 VAN 11 6 3 0 2 14 0.636 104 0.545 89 -2 1 8
6 6 DAL 11 5 4 2 0 14 0.636 104 0.636 104 -2 1 8
7 9 NAS 11 5 3 0 3 13 0.591 97 0.455 75 -2.5 0 9
8 8 COL 11 5 4 1 1 13 0.591 97 0.545 89 -2.5 0 9
9 12 SJS 10 5 4 0 1 11 0.550 90 0.500 82 -2.5 0 9
10 10 MIN 11 5 4 0 2 12 0.545 89 0.455 75 -3 -1 10
11 11 CGY 12 5 6 1 0 12 0.500 82 0.500 82 -4 -3 12
12 4 CHI 15 6 7 1 1 15 0.500 82 0.467 77 -5.5 -6 15
13 13 PHX 11 4 4 0 3 11 0.500 82 0.364 60 -3.5 -2 11
14 14 ANA 13 5 7 0 1 11 0.423 69 0.385 63 -5.5 -6 15
15 15 EDM 10 3 5 0 2 8 0.400 66 0.300 49 -4 -3 12

 

I added a pair of columns. Next to WIN% and PROJ (win percentage and projected final points) is "W%*" and "PRJ*", which show the team's win percentage an projected point total if you eliminate the "Bettman Point" and treat a loss as a loss (i.e. no points for you). What's the reason for doing that? Boredom. Also, it gives a little inflection to a team's record; which might be kinda important around playoff time, since a team that loses in OT in the regular season gets points, where a team that loses in OT in the playoffs, just loses. 

Other features of the "real standings," to reiterate:

  • Sorted by winning percentage (W%).
  • Only regulation wins and OT wins are counted as wins (W).
  • Shoot-out wins (WSO) are tallied separately. Why? Because they don't count in the "total wins" tie-breaker, so we need to keep them out of the W column.
  • "LOT" = loss in OT or shoot-out (i.e. Bettman point). 
  • "OFF." = the official standings, as rendered by ESPN. 
  • "PRJ" = projected final point total.
  • "GB" = games back, i.e. baseball standings. 
  • "PB" = points blown. Points-blown refers to the number of potential points a team has failed to earn. The fewer the better, obviously. This may seem like a needlessly confusing and pointless stat to keep track of, in which case, feel free to skip this column entirely. However, I find it's a useful way to correct for disparities in games-played. Think of points-blown as a kind of "hidden reason for optimism (or pessimism)" quantifier. 
  • "PS +/-" = points blown, relative to the 8th seed. In other words, how far above or below the post-season ("P.S.") cut-off a team is.
  • Except for the last five columns, Green indicates a projected finish 100 points or above (certain to qualify for playoffs). Yellow is 94-99 projected points (probable for playoffs), orange is 86-93 (projected to fall short), red is below 85 (falling short of falling short). For the No Bettman Point columns, the thresholds have been shifted downward slightly, to reflect the fact that teams across the board earn between 2-14 fewer points. For the last three columns, the colors translate to great, good, bad and screwed. 
  • If a team's row is multi-colored, that tells me that the team's ranking in the standings is comparatively less solid. For example, CGY, PHX and EDM are red across most of their rows, but orange in the "points blown" area. This indicates that those teams are slightly better than their records indicate, as they have not lost as many games as their neighbors, CHI and ANA. (i.e. they have games in hand; points-blown is a way to quantify games in hand; maybe I should have said that earlier... :))
  • I just love that Chicago is 4th in the ESPN standings, but in terms of W% they are 12th and in points-blown they are dead-last. 
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