My Kovalchuk Nightmare
by Quisp on Feb 3, 2010 1:20 PM PST
in Trade Deadline
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Perfectly reasonable, sane people have offered the opinion that it's crazy, stupid, a giant time-suck and possibly immoral or evil to sit around idly freaking out over every new trade rumor. This argument is especially persuasive in light of the fact that (1) all the rumors are basically the same, and (2) in a month we'll have actual concrete information to work with. In other words, until we get the lab results back, we're basically just trawling the internet looking for proof that this or that symptom means we're dying.
I've been negotiating with the Ghost of Christmas' Future about the different possible outcomes of the Big Kovalchuk Tease, and how I will feel about each. It goes something like this:
1) No trade. Kovalchuk re-signs with Atlanta. I am relieved and happy for him and Atlanta. Likelihood of this happening, according to me: 30%
2a) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the East. The price is steep. I am happy Dean Lombardi is our GM. Likelihood: 10%
2b) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the East. The price is surprisingly low. I think Waddell is insane for not sending him West. I assume that Lombardi knows something I don't, and don't lose sleep over it. Likelihood: 5%
3a) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the West that's not us. The price is steep. I am happy Dean Lombardi is our GM. I am happy that whoever paid the heavy price will be weaker for having given up so much. I wish for their self-destruction. Likelihood: 15%
3b) Kovalchuk is traded to someone in the West that's not us. The price is surprisingly low. I think Waddell blew it. I assume that Lombardi knows something I don't, and don't lose sleep over it. Maybe Kovalchuk wouldn't really fit in our system anyway. Also, I marvel at Ken Holland's genius and expect them to win the cup. Likelihood: 10%
4a) Kovalchuk is traded to the Kings as a rental. The price is low. For example, IK for Jarret Stoll and a swap of firsts. Lombardi is a genius and I am somewhat relieved but wonder who the #2 center is going to be. Brad Richardson, maybe. Likelihood: 4%
4b) Rental Kovalchuk to the Kings, price is high. Something like, IK for Stoll, Oscar Moller, Colten Teubert and a 1st. I am unhappy. I acknowledge that it's a complicated world and you have to give to get. I assume Lombardi made the best deal he could. Likelihood: 1%
5a) Kovalchuk (signed, sealed, delivered) is traded to the Kings. The price is low. For example, Kovalchuk for Jack Johnson, Richardson, Teubert and a 1st. I am happy that Lombardi made a trade that makes sense, excited to see Kovalchuk, but I'm sad about losing three guys I like. Likelihood: 10%
5b) Signed Kovalchuk to the Kings, price is high. Kovalchuk for Dustin Brown, Johnson, Thomas Hickey and Andrei Loktionov. I try to stay rational despite being depressed, especially about the amount of "character" going out the door, and also about Loktionov. I say something about how we won't know how good or bad this trade was for another four or five years. I don't really believe it. Likelihood: 15%
5c) Signed Kovalchuk to Kings, price is absurd. Kovalchuk for Wayne Simmonds, Moller, Loktionov, Vyacheslav Voynov and Jonathan Bernier. I am devastated and wish for Lombardi's resignation. Likelihood: 0%.
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If 1 happened I would be fairly indifferent. I would be happy for the Atlanta fans that their star player was staying.
If 2a happened I would be fairly indifferent. I would scoff at the price paid for a rental and move on.
If 2b happened I would be fairly indifferent, although I would envy the team that traded for Kovy and wonder why Deano couldn’t have done a similar deal.
If 3b happened I would be filled with jealousy and angst. I would be angry at Waddell for being an idiot and hate the team that traded for him. It would take me a couple days to recover.
If 4a happened I would be excited at the potential for a successful playoff run but ultimately feel rejected when Kovy signs with the Rangers.
If 4b happened I would anxiously await word from Deano that he had signed Kovy to a sensible long term contract. In the end, I am left dissappointed by the amount of good players gone from the roster.
If 5a happened I would be praising Deano for his shrewd maneuvering. I would wish the departed success while my expectations for the Kings increases dramatically.
If 5b happened there would be a moderate grieving period. I would initially hate Kovy for ruining my team but slowly embrace him as he leads the team deep into the playoffs. I would instantly designate Atlanta as my favorite team in the east.
If 5c happened there is a strong possiblity I would slip into a deep depression and turn to alcohol.
Check this out:
From From the Rink
Los Angeles have been perhaps the busiest shopper in the early goings of the this season’s trade deadline frenzy. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported today that the Kings were so close to an agreement with Carolina for Ray Whitney that Los Angeles GM Dean Lombardi spoke to Whitney’s agent about an extension — a conversation that reportedly ended when the 37-year-old forward, who has a no-trade clause — asked for a three-year extension.
Does this not frighten the hell out of anybody else? Why would we move to Kovy FROM Ray Whitney? Jebus.
Does it say what you say it say?
In the passage you quote, I see no indication of the order in which the Kings pursued Whitney v. Kovalchuk, or that the deal for one was permanently dead before DL moved on to the other. Or what DL was willing to offer for one vs. what he was willing to offer for the other — a very important relative consideration when making the judgment you’re trying to make here. For instance, if DL offered a used Toyota for Whitney before he began talks about Kovalchuk, that would not bother me in the least.
Sorry, the passage about that was after the one I quoted.
It would have helped to read the whole article.
Regardless, I cannot imagine any scenario in which I would want Ray Whitney at any price, let alone for an extension on his current deal. I just wouldn’t go after him. Period.
by 88fingerslukee on Feb 4, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Right now I’m just fretful thinking about all the guys and prospects I don’t want to lose — I mean, I trust Dean not to overpay, or go after him just as a rental, but still. Ugh. I’m worn out. Only Nut’s ideal situation takes me to a happy place.
I’m sure you’ve seen this already, but The latest McKenzie really doesn’t add anything — though mitigate doesn’t mean what he thinks it means.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
The problem with the IK signs on 7/1 scenario is
if you assume IK really is going to insist on the numbers he’s talking about in ATL (12 years, 11MM per year — not the piddly $100MM he turned down), then it’s not really an option for us. Because to do that, if you take the players we have now, add IK at a cap hit of $11MM, re-sign Frolov at an affordable $3.9MM, and make room for Schenn at a Doughty-esque ELC with bonuses, the Kings would be…$10MM over the cap. Which means, even if you don’t give up anyone in trading for IK, you still have to give up at least TWO of Stoll, Brown, Frolov, Williams, Handzus, Scuderi or Greene and then hope that Doughty or Schenn don’t hit their bonus marks, or else we’d have to dump ANOTHER of those $3-4MM salaries. Which means, one way or another, two of those names are going to have to go.
My conclusion is, if IK won’t take less than $8MM over 10 years, DL isn’t interested. However, if he WILL accept a front-loaded long term deal, with a cap hit around $7-8MM, $11MM for a couple of years, and dwindling down to $1MM in the last year, AND if Waddell will take, say, Stoll or Frolov, it’s at least worth considering.
Also, if McKenzie is right about what Waddell “must get” in return — a top six forward, a top four defenseman and a blue chip prospect or a high pick, then Lombardi is not interested, because he’s not giving up one of Scuderi, Doughty, Johnson or Greene. Maaaaybe he would give up Johnson if he were the only big roster player in the trade, but even then I doubt it.
SHort version: if Waddell’s demands are really that high, IK will not be a King, and I will be glad.
Wait till this year.
Because to do that, if you take the players we have now, add IK at a cap hit of $11MM, re-sign Frolov at an affordable $3.9MM, and make room for Schenn at a Doughty-esque ELC with bonuses, the Kings would be…$10MM over the cap.
That is a very good point. In my fantasy land (la la la) I was assuming his refusal of Atlanta might not be entirely about the money, and/or that other teams wouldn’t be able or willing to offer that much to him either. In other words, I don’t know anything about anyone, so I daydream at will. But at that price…I’d rather secure Doughty and the other guys in our system. Fro, too. People may be down on him, but I don’t have a problem with him making Handzus money.
As for Waddell…eh…I know there’s things he insists he “must” get, but best of luck to him with that, huh? It is a good time to have faith in Dean. I think most fans will be A-OK with passing on the big name player, this time. (Well, I suppose you could never count an LA Times rant out, but even she seems down on it if it means parting with her favorite stud JJ.)
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Fortunately, trading the players ATL wants from us and signing IK for the contract he's insisting on is so stupid and untenable that no-one could pull the trigger on such a deal.
Waddell and IK both have to return to earth. Maybe when they do, he signs with them. Which is fine by me. Alternatively, I hope Chicago trades three of their $3-4MM contracts for IK, and destroys themselves, simultaneously making Atlanta a threat and a fun team to watch.
Wait till this year.
I hope Chicago trades three of their $3-4MM contracts for IK, and destroys themselves, simultaneously making Atlanta a threat and a fun team to watch.
Ahahaha. Yes. I like it. I have long wondered how the postseason will be handled by the Mayors of Crazytown, but if even they are balking at your Ilya price, somebody needs to calm the heck down.
I know he has to TRY, but still. I don’t care how many prospective deals he leaks as part of his grand stra-tee-ger-y, it still doesn’t mean he’s dealing from a position of strength. Everyone else can sit tight. He’s up against the running clock.
(Oh, wait, this is the NHL. Watch someone be that demented five seconds after I post this.)
In Dinglebarn We Trust
True story
A good friend of mine who is a Boston Bruins fan just sent me a text, gloating because it’s being reported that the B’s are now in the running for Kovalchuck. My reply was that it’s crazy because now everyone seems to be in on it. His next text to me said this:
You guys wouldn’t part with johnson
to which I simply said
Would you be willing to part with your Johnson?
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