Bernier or Ersberg?
by Quisp on Mar 11, 2010 8:26 PM PST
in Prospects
13 comments
Jonathan Quick is taking a few days to experience the miracle of childbirth. Jonathan Bernier, the Kings' 2006 1st round pick (and literally the first pick Dean Lombardi made upon his arrival in LA), the so-called "future of the franchise," and the best goalie in the AHL this season, has been called up and, by now, has arrived Dallas. Terry Murray says he hasn't decided who to start. Helene Elliott says Bernier is likely to and expected to start. The poll on LAKingsInsider is 2:1 in favor of Bernier, but that's not a ringing endorsement, as the comments section bears out. The argument that Erik Ersberg should get the start is, variously (from the above-linked comments): that he's earned it, that he has more NHL experience, that he needs to get in a start or two to shake off the rust in case he's needed in the playoffs, and even (my favorite) that if Bernier does well, Quick's confidence will be shaken. Because, you know, Quick is twelve. There also seems to be a consensus (among the comments) that if even if Bernier stands on his head and does the best Ken Dryden impression since, well, Ken Dryden, Bernier will be on the next plane back to Manchester.
Three or four months ago, I argued in favor of bringing up Bernier for 10-15 games, even if it meant zipping him back and forth to/from Manchester a dozen times. [THIS POST CONTINUES AFTER THE JUMP, LINK AFTER THE POLL; POLL IS RUDE AND PUSHY.]
My reasoning was that Ersberg was not inspiring confidence and it would be foolhardy to ride Quick for 75 games and expect him not to burn out, or worse, get inj****d. It also seemed unwise to put the team in a position where a post-deadline inj**y to Quick would leave us at the 11th hour with a choice between a cold Ersberg and an untested Bernier, neither of which were good options. But of course it has always been Lombardi's plan to have Bernier play the entire season in Manchester, for all the reasons that have been covered a million times (experience, maturity, learning to win). And so Bernier did not get his 15 games.
(There is also a faction of Kings fans who believe that one of Bernier or Quick is likely to be traded this summer, but I think that's crazy talk. Lombardi lived this plot already in San Jose. He's going to continue to water and grow his assets at the NHL level, because that's how to maximize their value. Quick and Bernier will be 1a/1b in LA next season, Jeff Zatkoff will be the starter in Manchester, Martin Jones will be the back-up, and Ersberg will be waived or traded. Otherwise, to trade Bernier before he ever plays meaningful games in the NHL, or to trade Quick before Bernier has been tested in NHL games, that would be borderline criminal. Milburyesque.)
Given today's news, I tried to be a responsible grown-up and decide if it really was the prudent, fair, responsible thing to do to start Ersberg. After all, he is cold, and he does need to shake the rust off. I mean, what happens if Quick gets inj***d in the playoffs and Ersberg got the call? 
But then I realized, if Quick gets inj***d, Ersberg will finish that game, but then Bernier comes up and we have the same exact choice we're facing now. And I really don't think, in that scenario, there's even much of a choice. Is Bernier going to sit on the bench because Erik Ersberg has played 50 NHL games?
Bernier starts in the playoffs.
Do you think Lombardi (yeah, yeah, I know it's Murray's decision...) would be willing to lose with Ersberg in net with the future of the franchise sitting on the bench the whole time? I don't, either. And if Lombardi has thought this through (the odds of him not having played out this decision tree about a million times are, frankly, zero), he also knows that Bernier needs to start tomorrow's game, to give him a chance to shake off the jitters, so he doesn't have to do it in April or May). There's no point in shaking off Ersberg's rust if Ersberg is never going to play.
Now. Say Bernier plays tomorrow and is average, sucks, or is otherwise not spectacular. That would of course be disappointing, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was sent down as soon as Quick returned. But starting him still would have been the right call, because what we're doing is preparing for the unexpected. And the unexpected scenario we'd like to avoid is Bernier called into action in the playoffs without having played an NHL game in almost three years.
However: what if, tomorrow, Bernier stands on his head? I've heard people say he gets sent down no matter what. Sounds mature and responsible to say that. I certainly feel immature thinking otherwise. But...why is that again? Why not give him another start? Give Quick some more rest -- let him get in some practice time with Ranford, one of those little checks of the fundamentals, which he's had no time to do lately -- let Bernier play until he's not Jesus walking on water. If Bernier drops the ball, fine. But if he delivers a string of shut-outs (etc.), I think Lombardi would be crazy to send him down.
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I have to disagree with you, here Quisp. Ersberg is a solid backup who, literally, never plays. He deserves the start. He’s been patient and positive and he can get the job done.
Bernier means more to the organization than Ersberg but this is not his season to take the reigns. I’m fine with trading/waiving Ersberg next season. Let the Bernier/Quick tandem rock the NHL in 2010-2011.
But it’s not his time. Ersberg is the guy that will be in the playoffs. Let’s get him some games.
I reserve the right to disagree with myself
And I don’t think it’s do or die. I won’t pull my own head off if it’s Ersberg all the way. And I guess the other way to look at it is, if horrible thing “a” happens (Quick gets hurt) and Ersberg plays and plays great, then there’s no problem, but if he sucks, we’ll see Bernier.
Wait till this year.
Instinct tells me that Bernier stays with the Monarchs
I think the plan is for JB to take Manchester all the way through the playoffs, no matter what.
That being said, I come around to your point of view the more I think about it. If (Heaven forbid) the Kings ride Ersberg into and through the playoffs and he is anything less than brilliant, DL and TM will be lynched for tanking the Kings’ first playoff run in six years.
which is why if EE were to see any action in the playoffs and he was no good
bernier would get his shot.
Wait till this year.
Yes
And interestingly enough, it was looking at the comments at Hammond’s blog that helped convince me. Because I was reminded of how many fans out there either have the memory/attention spans of goldfish, or are badly in need of lithium.
If Ersberg plays significant minutes in the playoffs and the Kings lose a series, I’ll bet $ to donuts that the first person to make a hangman’s noose for DL or TM will be someone who stepped up for Ersberg today. Ditto for next season, when Bernier is on his way to playing 20-35 games and establishing himself as a legitimate NHL goalie.
I couldn’t resist sticking it to one guy who argued that it would screw up team chemistry if Bernier started tomorrow, because Ersberg has been with the team all season and Bernier is the “new guy.” [/sarcasm on] Because of course, we all know that DL has put together a team of petulant, fragile little children instead of dedicated professionals who want to win more than anything else. [/sarcasm off] And overlooking that fact that most everyone on the team can remember when Bernier was the starting goalie.
not to mention the fact that it's a business and they're in the business of winning
or the fact that EE is, for better or worse, not going to be with the team on 10/1/2010.
The meme that Bernier is not ready or hasn’t paid his dues or whatever is totally played out now. He has paid his dues, in full, as far as the AHL is concerned. Not that he won’t finish the season there.
Wait till this year.
The argument that Bernier hasn’t paid his dues doesn’t hold up. Quick played roughly 80 games in the minors before sticking with the Kings last year. Quick became the starter last year despite EE being on the team before him. Bernier has played over 100 games in the minors up to this point.
Seniority didn’t secure EE the starting job last year when Quick was called up and it shouldn’t now that Bernier has been called up.
Kudos Q
Great article Quisp. Well-thought out and very interesting to read. Naturally, I enjoy reading Hammond’s blog and check it through out the day. However, the comments left on the Bernier/Ersberg debate are a prime example of why I prefer to interact here at SB Nation as opposed to at LA Kings Insider. There are some knee-jerk, impulsive commentors there who have a very difficult time envisioning the big picture.
My thoughts on the matter? Give Bernier some NHL starts while the opportunity is here, plan on using Quick for the playoffs and take comfort in the fact that the AHL’s permier goalie will be available for the Kings should anything unfortunate happen to Quick.
2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Mar 12, 2010 9:37 AM PST reply actions
I would have to think that if Bernier is in nets tonight, that Ersberg has played his last game in LA — barring the “i-word” of course. To me that would be a terrible snub of Ersberg.
I doubt it. I’m sure Ersberg recognizes that the combination of Quick’s strong play and his less than solid play has resulted in the amount of games he’s been in. Kings are still better served with Bernier taking the Monarchs to the playoffs. That being said, Zatkoff has been solid as well and it wouldn’t be a big downgrade statistics-wise (since thats all I can go off of) if he was the starter.
I can't imagine Ersberg is stupid
It’s been obvious for a while that he’s really the #3 goalie in the organization, and that next year he will be the odd man out unless something Wile E. Coyote-like happens to Quick or Bernier (anvil falls on his head, etc.). I’m sure he’s smart enough to understand that. So I think any talk about his feelings being hurt is probably overblown.
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