Standings in Points-Blown Make It All So Clear
by Quisp on Mar 5, 2010 10:23 PM PST
in Standings
15 comments
The Good: Canucks lose, Preds lose, Wild half-lose; (and last night) Stars lost, Avs lost.
The Bad: Hawks win, Wings win, Flames win; (and last night) Kings lost, Preds won, Blues won, Yotes won, Sharks won.
Yeah, so?
Only 13 points separate 3rd from 13th. This would be why so many teams think they still have a shot, and why the 3-6 teams would do well not to fall asleep at the wheel, because a losing streak now could kill anyone's playoff hopes (excluding the Sharks and Hawks, who -- as the bottom of the post illustrates -- would have to crap out on a level unprecedented in human history in order to drop out of the playoff picture).
Here are the standings*:
- San Jose Sharks 37 (1) +9
- Chicago Blackhawks 37 (2) +9
- Los Angeles Kings 46 (4) --
- Vancouver Canucks 48 (3) -2
- Phoenix Coyotes 49 (5) -3
- Colorado Avalanche 50 (6) -4
- Nashville Predators 53 (7) -7
- Detroit Red Wings 56 (8) -10
- Calgary Flames 57 (9) -11
- Dallas Stars 58 (10) -12
- St. Louis Blues 59 (12) -13
- Minnesota Wild 59 (13) -13
- Anaheim Ducks 59 (11) -13
- Columbus Blue Jackets 67 (14) -21
- Edmonton Oilers 82 (15) -36
And here's the record** each team needs from here on, to get to the assumed (by me) magical point total of 95:
- San Jose Sharks (18) 2-16-0
- Chicago Blackhawks (18) 2-16-0
- Los Angeles Kings (19) 7-11-1
- Vancouver Canucks (18) 7-10-1
- Phoenix Coyotes (17) 7-10-0
- Colorado Avalanche (18) 8-9-1
- Nashville Predators (18) 10-8-0
- Detroit Red Wings (18) 11-6-1
- Calgary Flames (18) 12-6-0
- Dallas Stars (19) 13-5-1
- St. Louis Blues (19) 13-6-0
- Minnesota Wild (19) 14-5-0
- Anaheim Ducks (19) 14-5-0
- Columbus Blue Jackets (18) 17-1-0
- Edmonton Oilers (18) n/a
*standings in points-blown explained: two points "awarded" for every loss, one point for every OTL/SOL. Lowest point total is best. Number in parentheses is the official standings (via ESPN). Last number (+/-) is number of points (in my system) ahead or behind Los Angeles. Because it's a Kings-centric universe.
**Games-remaining in parentheses.
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The way I like to look at it is
For any of those teams in the current 3-13, if you blow it and drop out of the picture, you didn’t deserve to be there, and you if get hot and make it on the last day of the season, then you deserved it.
Wait till this year.
Anything is possible until it's mathematically impossible
But at this point, it would take a truly astounding collapse for the Kings to fall all the way out of the playoffs, something akin to the worst possible gypsy curse. The last time we saw something like that happen, the players had effectively tuned out the coach and stopped playing for him. There’s no evidence that the current Coach Murray has worn out his welcome in a similar way.
Is it just me, or are the Predators looking like a scary team going into the playoffs? Their players run so hot-cold…
Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 6, 2010 9:32 AM PST reply actions
They’re mostly scary against the Kings…
2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Mar 6, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
funny, because my (wings fan) brothers used to always complain
about how tough the preds were against the wings.
Wait till this year.
good analysis.
here’s a good site for looking at likelihoods of teams making the playoffs. it’s very thorough, and will be good to watch over the next month.
Official Ambassador for Nucks Misconduct.
Canadian beer is better than Miller, but I only like my vodka.
GO CANUCKS GO!
oh okay, i didn’t look at the margin, my bad.
but still, it’s good.
Official Ambassador for Nucks Misconduct.
Canadian beer is better than Miller, but I only like my vodka.
GO CANUCKS GO!
well, I just looked
and the whole “stats” section of links is missing. So there! There’s lots of great stuff in that section, once we — uh — find it.
Wait till this year.
i want to do a post like this over at Nucks Misconduct. just tried to work on it though, and it seems as though almost everyone still has a chance at 1st place in the western conference (i want to also look at likely finishing positions, and what is the best possible finish). so, maybe next weekend or so, once a few more games have been played, it will be much more useful then.
Official Ambassador for Nucks Misconduct.
Canadian beer is better than Miller, but I only like my vodka.
GO CANUCKS GO!
sports club stats is obviously a great resource for that
especially with regard to the tallies at the bottom of the page for each conference, where you can see the cumulative odds of each team finishing at which seed. Actually, i think that’s at each team’s page. either way.
as far as finishing first, you can see (from SCS) that there is a remote chance of San Jose or Chicago not finishing 1st or 2nd, but I’m going to estimate that that the odds of BOTH teams dropping to 3rd or lower is tiny approaching zero. So in that sense, it’s safe to say that one of them will finish first. And one of Vancouver or Colorado will therefore finish 3rd (slim shot at 2nd). One of San Jose and Chicago are highly likely to finish 2nd. So we basically know the identities of the top three teams, down to a pool of four teams (CHI, SJS and one of VAN or COL).
And, as far as 3-6 (LA, PHX, VAN/COL, NSH), the odds are very good to excellent for each of those teams taken individually, but by no means a lock. However, what is a virtual lock is that no more than one of those teams will crap out and miss the play-offs. Which means that we we know for a fact that the top six will include five (and possibly six) of the current top six teams. Nashville, I don’t think we know which way they’re going to go. Could beak into the top 6, could drop out completely. And Detroit, Dallas, Calgary — those three teams have a shot at 8th. Flip a three-sided coin. But odds and history favor Detroit, I think.
The odds are small that any of the 11-13 teams get hotter than hot and sneak in. But I think the odds are about zero that more than one of them does.
Wait till this year.
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