No Cap-22 for Sharks
by Quisp on May 24, 2010 2:32 PM PDT
in Capmania, Capaphobia, Capaphilia, Capnesia
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I do enjoy it when big lurching behemoths spend themselves into a Cap-22. However, looking at San Jose's cap figures for next year, I don't see any kind of crisis. Unlike Chicago, who has to choose among several variations of hideous roster moves, the Sharks basically have the option of staying pat, provided that they manage to do the following things:
- Re-sign Evgeni Nabokov at $3MM (50% of current cap hit). He will be 35 this contract, so there's no cap relief if SJS want to buy him out. Plan B: sign someone cheaper (e.g. Marty Turco).
- Re-sign Rob Blake at $2MM (50% of current cap hit). Assuming he or anyone thinks he has anything left in the tank. I think he'll want to stay on for another year and will take what they offer. Plan B: pick-up a crusty old UFA defenseman for even less money than that.
- Re-sign Patrick Marleau to a front-loaded long-term deal than pays him more than he's getting now (in salary) for a few years, but which gives the Sharks a net savings in cap-hit. Somewhere around $5.5MM cap hit (which is down slightly from $6.3MM). Plan B: let Lombardi sign him and watch Marleau kill you several times a year for several more years as you rebuild.
- Re-sign RFAs Devin Setoguchi and Joe Pavelski to contracts with a cap hit that totals (for the two of them, added together) no more than $6MM per year. Make it $3.2MM and $2.8MM, or whatever, I don't care. But these guys are getting raises and it seems doable to me (an outsider who nothings nothing) at those prices.
- The rest of the roster is filled out with ELCs and other minimum wagers.
I cap-geeked these moves and plugged in any old names for the $500-$900K contracts. You can sub in or out anyone you please. And it looks something like this:
The Sharks end up with essentially exactly the same team as 2009-2010. With under a million in cap space. That's workable. Now, there's a whole other conversation to have about what they should do, whether they should stick with these guys, who, as Kukla's Korner said this weekend, "have shown that they know how to almost win," or embrace a vision of the future that involves losing Marleau, upgrading (or downsizing the salary of) their goaltending, trading Joe Thornton, trading Dany Heatley (whose stock has to be up from last summer; they could flip him and get themselves a nice return; me, I would keep him), or any other rebuilding model you care to consider.
Bottom line: I'm sad to report the cap will not force them to do something painful and stupid. But that doesn't stop them from being stupid all on their own. One can dream.
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As a Sharks fan...
One thing that is pretty much thought out is that we need to upgrade our D for next year. And also, it seems that Pavelski is going to get a contract between 4 and 5 million.
and it would be money well spent
but a front-loaded deal could get the cap hit down under $4MM. On the other hand, if the goal is to upgrade the D, the Sharks could let Marleau walk and go for one of the big UFA defensemen instead (Volchenkov, Hamhuis, etc.). The other option would be to trade Thornton for a defenseman and some other pieces and sign Marleau. Of course, Thornton’s NTC will make it hard to send him somewhere that would actually have the cap space to do it.
Wait till this year.
yeah, i will go back and fixed the pavelski numbers and see where that leaves things
Wait till this year.
So Marleau may, in fact, re-up with SJ
Whenever there has been talk about the UFAs available this summer, it has always been taken as a given that Marleau would be leaving San Jose. I assumed this meant that San Jose just wouldn’t be able to afford to keep him, since it’s not like Marleau had some kind of irreconcilable break with them, like with Kovalchuk and Atlanta. But it looks like what you’ve demonstrated here is that San Jose could re-sign Marleau at the same salary, provided that they choose not to use the cap space that he’s now occupying to upgrade in other areas.
Has Marleau publicly declared that he wants to test the market this summer? Or is it just assumed that there will be a bidding war for him, and San Jose can’t afford to give him a real raise?
Whenever there has been talk about the UFAs available this summer, it has always been taken as a given that Marleau would be leaving San Jose.
Where have that been a given? Cause over at FTF, BoC, we’ve all been saying we think he’ll stay. And I’ve seen that elsewheres.
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin
"It's getting harder and harder to differentiate between schizophrenics and people talking on a cell phone. It still brings me up short to walk by somebody who appears to be talking to themselves." -- Bob Newhart
Other Kings fans, mostly
So I’ll admit it’s not a crowd that keeps real close tabs on the Sharks.
But Quisp’s re-analysis is worth noting. His revision certainly makes it look like Marleau will either have to take a pay cut to stay, or the Sharks will have to dump some salary.
Personally, I could never see why the Sharks would let him go without fight unless they had to.
Malhotra will definitely command more than 700K, UFA and 2nd in league in faceoff percentage
My guess is Nabokov is done and Marleua is gonesville, on his own wishes. Makes room for trades and signings, goalie is likely their number one need.
End Corporate Personhood.
Agreed. I doubt Nabokov would go for $3million either.
prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on May 25, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, I'm not saying he would. But my line of reasoning is:
1) He’s thirty-five this year. So his contract is in that cap-danger-zone. (no buy-out relief)
2) Here are the goalies over 35: Brodeur (38, $5.2MM); Tim Thomas (35, $5MM), Khabibulin (37, $3.75MM), Roloson (41, $2.5MM), Osgood (38, $1.475MM), Hedberg (36, $1.087MM), Legace (36, $500K).
Brodeur has been the best goalie in the world for the last couple of decades. The Tim Thomas contract may or may not be a Huet-like error. Khabibulin has injured for the first year of that contract, so he gets an incomplete at best. The rest are $2.5MM and under. Nabokov has no rings, no wins past the second round, and a reputation for being great in the regular season, not in the playoffs.
3) It’s reasonable to assume, if you’re San Jose, that you can do apprpoximately as well even with a less skilled goalie. Maybe they lose a few more games. But I think they’re done trying to win the Presidents’ Trophy.
4) Why not sign Dan Ellis? Making $1.75 this year. Or trade for someone similar.
5) Who are the goalies in the cup finals? I don’t know (PHI) and not Huet (CHI).
Wait till this year.
true, re malhotra; i was just plugging in salaries at that point.
I will go back and fix. What will Malhotra get, you think?
Wait till this year.
Insomniac wandering around the Web last night...
… and I found myself over at Mike Chen’s blog. He and the commenters were talking about what the Sharks will do this summer, of course.
I think the salary figure floated for Malhotra was 1.5 mil. Also, there seemed to be a strong consensus that Nabokov does not represent good value at his current salary and should not be re-signed at that level, but that some numbnuts GM will overpay for him. It was generally accepted that a cheaper goalie splitting time with Greiss would represent better value — not the same results, but a more efficient use of cap space.
I like this guy's potential, and his realized stats are already good
1.5 to 2.0 would seem reasonable, I would not be surprised to see him get 2.25 somewhere, I think he will get serious interest across the league. 14 goals in 71 games. 6’2", 217, good size and not at all slow. Plays all forward positions. Defensive emphasis to his game, perfect checking line guy for wing, and could back up Handzus if Zus got hurt. As you know, in my preferred lineup guys have to be versatile, utility types, and his faceoff ability seals this deal.
End Corporate Personhood.
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