Hawks Catch a Break How to Make Your Cap Nightmare Worse
I don't even know what to say. It's like an April Fool's joke.
Blackhawks exceed salary cap by millions - The Globe and Mail
What wasn’t clear until today, however, is just how far over they went this season – and how that will hurt them in 2010-11.[...]The only two Blackhawks regulars with bonuses on their contracts this season were Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who had a combined $5-million of them available. We heard yesterday from TSN’s James Duthie that Toews earned a $1.3-million bonus for winning the Conn Smythe Trophy, which puts Chicago over the cap at least $1-million. What wasn’t revealed was the fact that both players hit all of their entry-level bonuses this season, meaning an extra $5-million in addition to their base salaries against the cap. It’s exceptionally complicated to calculate exactly how far over the Blackhawks now are, but in looking at the numbers and talking to a few people today, I believe it to be about $4-million.
The situation in Chicago is now so bad that I feel horrible even going through the numbers. Just check out my previous post, which had the Hawks current roster (assuming new contracts for Niemi, Ladd and the guy whose name I can't spell) about $14.5MM over the cap. Now it appears there's an extra $3.7MM to subtract from their cap ceiling? On top of the $1.3MM I subtracted yesterday??
There are a couple of ways to look at that.
- $4,000,000 over the cap with 5-7 players left to sign.
- $18,200,000* over the cap, keeping the team together.
I'm speechless.
However, let's take this moment for a stroll down memory lane. This is from a post of mine from last July.
Idiots Chart (#5) 7/10/09 now with exciting new columns! - Jewels From The Crown
Some people are wondering if Tallon is going to dip into his bonus cushion this season in order to keep his team going. After all, what are the odds that KANE AND TOEWS are going to earn their bonuses?Accordingly, the new column is called MADNESS [follow link for the chart]. The figure in the madness column represents a team's cap space per player remaining to be signed, assuming you raise the cap ceiling by the amount of the team's bonus cushion and assuming you're shooting for a roster of 22. Why did I choose 22? Here's my reasoning: A GM that is willing to fritter away his cushion is not also going to be carrying a roster of maximum size. I am making the assumption (or guess) that he will have already "saved" by going for the 22-man roster. Of course, he could "save" further by cutting the roster down to 21 or even 20, but I don't think there's a GM on the planet who's that crazy. So blowing the bonus cushion on a roster of 22 is the most crazy I was willing to imagine anyone reasonably being with another millionaire's money. [...] Teams who are over the cap have no entry in the columns indicating how much money they have left to spend, since they don't have any. Note that Chicago is over the cap but they still have room to spend if they flirt with MADNESS.
Oops.
*Many people appear to be having trouble wrapping their minds around the $18MM figure, and so assume I must have lost my mind. The $18MM number arose from my desire to look at the Hawks 2010-2011 by starting with the cup winning team, and working from there. Essentially I assumed re-signing key RFAs (Niemi, Ladd, the defenseman whose name I can't spell) and letting nearly all the UFAs walk. I also assumed Beach is ready to play on the big club in the fall (because, obviously, if he is ready but he can't be promoted because of cap considerations, that is a cap PROBLEM). Follow the link to the previous post for the full rundown. Starting at $13MM+ (it only turned into $18MM because of the bonus cushion folly), I then proceeded to whittle away at it, until the Hawks were under the cap, having had to shed only around nine roster players.
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I will stock up on popcorn
It’s like watching an action movie where you pretty much know how it’s going to end, but you want to see how they stage each car crash along the way.
well said
this story gets even more exciting, and waiting to see how it unfolds is almost as exciting as seeing who the kings pick up this summer
I love how gleeful you are about this, Quisp. I can imagine your den, filled with charts and figure, 2 calculators running simultaneously, astrolabes lying about, your tearful wife begging you to come to bed while you scream, “HOLD ON! I HAVE TO EVALUATE PATRICK SHARP’S BONUS!”
Patrick Sharp sure would look nice on the Kings.
Quisp, I have thought this for a long time, but you should really get this mug.
So many people are still in denial. Heh.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Well, obviously winning was great. I’m not even going to get into how dicey it is to pin so much of your hopes on one year, since they pulled it off (dang it, Preds!). To me it’s not “One Cup, or no Cup?” so much as “One cup, or dynasty?” The point of all this is that they probably could have had the championship this year and kept a lot more of their players with just a bit more foresight. And people react to Mirtle’s article by saying the numbers aren’t right and they can’t be true, or it was all completely justified because of the win.
I think what they don’t get is: yes, depth is a good strategy. Managing depth with an eye to the basic realities of the cap is better.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
by Niesy on Jun 12, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
great minds
yes, i totally agree and wrote a much more meandering comment saying the same thing…
Wait till this year.
Mirtle is right; people can't add
the only thing that’s up in the air is which players you’re going to get rid of.
Wait till this year.
I swear, you could give an entire class on behavioral econ or real options using examples from sport contracts alone. (I suppose it’s oddly reassuring that people make the same mistakes everywhere, but I’m left wondering why in the heck so few people learn the lesson.) Wake up, kids. Tallon was fired for very good reasons.
The thing that grates me is the way folks are jumping to the conclusion that because the Blackhaws won by being in cap debt up to their eyeballs, it’s the only way they could have won this year. No. I’m sorry. I refuse to accept that premise without a better supporting argument. “This is the way it happened, so it’s the only way it could have happened” is not very reflective analysis. But whatever. Anything that weakens the Hawks is good for us, and it’s not bad/weird/insane for us to recognize that now. Wake up, kids. Tallon was fired for very good reasons.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I CAN say it though
I have a theory, which I have so far kept to myself. Which I will share now. I don’t think winning ONE cup is that big a deal. Look, obviously it’s a big deal, especially for teams with no cups. And it’s a much better outcome than not winning. But my theory goes something like this: parity sucks. A league with 30 exactly equivalent teams is great for YMCA Jr Lakers basketball, age 5-6 division (from which I just returned), but it’s terrible for a pro sport. We need our heroes and villains. We need to hate the Yankees (or the Red Wings, etc.). We need to feel bad for Northwestern and pull for the upset. This is, for me, one of the reasons the shoot-out sucks; because it creates false parity, making bad teams look better and good teams look worse. Now, about those cups:
We all know as soon as the Kings are lucky enough and good enough to win their first cup, everyone will just say so what Anaheim, Carolina and Tampa did it and then proceeded to suck. If winning a cup is no guarantee of future success, then it’s relatively meaningless. Relative to the way it used to be. The Bruins may have won only two cups in the 70s, but they were there every year, losing to PHI, losing to MTL.
Chicago, I believe, is in a better position than Carolina or Tampa or Anaheim, but they have — to put it mildly — not done themselves any favors. If the Kings were to win the cup at the expense of the future, I would be fleetingly happy followed immediately by being depressed and angry, clinging to that one cup like grim death as the Kings flail impotently for the rest of my life.
The Wings, Canadiens, Oilers, Islanders, Flyers, Penguins and Devils all have a claim on lasting greatness, in various eras. More so for the first four, less so for the last four. (I’m only going back to the 67 expansion.) Put Colorado about halfway in there, maybe three-quarters of the way. But they are all a cut above Dallas, Anaheim, Carolina and Tampa, the one-and-done club.
I will be glad for the Kings to win one cup, but one is much closer to zero than it is to two. And two is closer to one than it is to three.
Three cups is the goal, if you ask me. That gives you elite franchise status. Teams hate you because you win too much. People long for your demise. This is what I want.
I have no special dislike for Chicago, other than their style of management is suicidal and I find that offensive on some level.
if the Kings were to throw it all away just to win once, I would be just about ready to root for someone else. This would be like saying, at age 18, I will gladly submit to castration if I can have sex just once with the most beautiful girl in the world. Seems like a good idea before, not so much after.
(also, I am annoyed by the “I want to win a cup I don’t care what team I’m on” gambit; I didn’t mind Hossa going to Detroit, but leaving Detroit and going to Chicago seemed pathetic to me; I was a huge fan of Ray Bourque, but to me it was pathetic and meaningless for him to “win” in Colorado. it’s a team sport. I don’t believe that every great player “deserves” to win the cup. You have to be on a great team. You have to have some luck. Winning a cup is not supposed to be easy. I’m fairly repulsed by the “I’m a winner I want to go play on a winner” attitude — i.e. Rob Blake.)
I accept that my point of view is not shared by many people. But imagine if the Kings were on a cup run and we knew that we were going to lose nine players out of the twenty on the cup-run team. I would be sick.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jun 12, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good theory...
but ask Oilers fans how awesome that “lasting greatness” is right now…
also, just imagine how incensed Hawks would be next year if they didn’t win the cup? That would suck.
by 88fingerslukee on Jun 12, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m sure any of them that lived through the 80’s and early 90’s will say it was amazing. That’s a long time to be happy with a team.
"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda
I would feel a whole lot better about the Kings the past 15 years (while we blew) if I could look to the decade before that and think about how we were the most dominate team in the league.
Yeah, I think it's meaningful to be able to say, "that team was one of the best ever"
You just can’t say that about Anaheim, Carolina, Dallas or Tampa. The very fact that if the Kings were to win the cup people would say that doesn’t mean you don’t suck is proof that one cup is not enough. It’s necessary but not sufficient.
Wait till this year.
Trust me,
I actually go to Edmonton and know plenty of people there and none of them look back at that with anything more than a sigh.
Sports is all about “what have you done for me lately?” Edmonton has basically sucked since then and no matter how good your team WAS, if they’re not good now people are upset.
Those 5 banners, though, are not that much of a consolation when you’re at the game watching the Oilers blow another season before they get to November.
by 88fingerslukee on Jun 13, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Part of that may be Pocklington
I mean, my recollection is that the Peter Pocklington era didn’t end gracefully, what with him having to trade Gretzky and all of the other good players because he was running out of money. He basically went belly-up because the oil boom had ended, yes?
But you’re right that sports is all about recent history. That’s why I think that AEG is good with what Lombardi wants to do, as opposed to what the Hawks just did. They want warm bodies flooding to the Staples Center area year after year, to see a Kings team that is always in contention. One boom year followed by a rapid fall-off in interest doesn’t fit their business model.
I end up somewhere in the middle...
I want the Kings to become an established franchise. They need a Cup to do that. I want to remian viable as a serious (top 4 in conference) contender for many years. But, right now, this summer, I want to seriously commit to a 2 year plan. I want the Kings to go after vital pieces, and use some assets in the development pipleine to get those assets. I want to do that, but in a reasonable, methodical way. I don’t want to mortgage the future, I don’t want to sell the farm, or quit on developing players.
I have my own theory that (1) you need to do it once, and that will make the second one a lot easier, and (2) we need to “culture shock” the organization with an infusion of fresh experience from proven winners, to help those that have never “been there” feel that it is indeed possible.
Imagine the Hawks looking down the bench and seeing John Madden. Imagine them knowing he is gonna go out there and just do the smart thing. He wasn’t vital in any particular play, but he was vital just in the aggregate. His presence alone added credibility to their efforts and hopes.
We need to get some of those kind of guys. Richard Clune, or John Madden on your 4th line? Ben Eager, or Raitis Ivanans?
The Kings have the core, they have some solid defenseman, they have the goalies in place. They have a limited window, due to cap space (as would any team) and right goddamn now is the time to make the moves. I would rather have Johnny Weismuller or Michael Phelps teach them how to swim, than simply toss them in the deep end and let them get stronger by not drowning.
And, another theory is that once you do have major success, those assets you traded to get the veterans are easily replaced when your core becomes so much more valuable for being winners.
I am not saying gut the team, or empty the prospects, I am saying it is obvious what the team needs, and we have many younger players that other teams (The Hawks) would be happy to trade salary for. Give the Hawks an out, let them save face by picking up guys that will probably be good in two years, and might be great in 4 years, but when the Hawks have to give up guys that are RIGHT NOW very good and could still become great, the Kings need to make the sweetest offer.
Use the depth you drafted, let someone else wait for a few of them to become NHL quality; we have plenty of active, young players that are ready to be led to the ultimate goal.
End Corporate Personhood.
Well, there's Ryan Smyth
A big part of the rationale for getting him was that he was a proven winner who could impart his experience to the young core. Same with Scuderi, for whom the Kings probably overpaid just a bit. So it’s not as if Lombardi is not doing what you suggest,
I would not be opposed at all to poaching Sharp, and other valuable assets from Chicago that would fit under the cap.
But when it comes to what the Kings should give in return, remember that the Hawks are the team over the barrel, not the Kings, and when we’re talking about the most valuable assets here, it’s cap space and not just talent. The sweetest deal of all may be to give draft picks (i.e., no cap hit) to the Hawks, because the more cap hit they can clear in a trade, the fewer players they’ll have to sacrifice.
I will freely admit that if the Kings were to win just one Cup in my lifetime, I would die a happy woman. One Cup is nothing to sneeze at; it’s a tremendous achievement. On the other hand, if you were to ask any fan, “Which would you rather see, one championship in your lifetime, or two?” Anyone who doesn’t say “Two, please,” is lying.
I want three Cups, too, but I have never been brave enough to admit it. Woohoo!
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Amen to that
In particular, this:
“If the Kings were to win the cup at the expense of the future, I would be fleetingly happy followed immediately by being depressed and angry, clinging to that one cup like grim death as the Kings flail impotently for the rest of my life.”
And flailing impotently is no fun at all. I think we Kings fans have learned that all too well over the last several decades.
Plus, one Cup and out doesn’t create much of a legacy for Dean Lombardi. Even a blind pig can find a truffle once, etc. Building a Red Wings-like dynasty, after building a highly competitive team from nothing in San Jose, would make him a HoF GM.
As a Blues fan...
I’m all weepy over this news. Someone hold me puleeeeze.
Just a chew toy for the hockey gods
Another way to say it is this:
The Kings want to be (or I want them to be) a team that expects to get to the 3rd round and after that everything is possible. This year we were happy to make the playoffs. Detroit, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Jose — those teams see anything short of the third round at bare minimum to be a somewhat catastrophic failure. That’s where we want to be. Not just some team that’s lucky to be there.
Seriously, which would you rather have:
1) ten straight seasons of making it at least to the third round and half the time getting to the finals, but no cup.
or
2) a cup next year then never getting out of the first round again for the rest of our lives.
Wait till this year.
Honestly, I don't know, if you put it that way
As regards option #1, I don’t know what it was like to be a Lakers fan in the 1960s (a little too young to remember), or a Bills fan in the 1980s (didn’t live in Buffalo, so just kind of chortled at them for losing 4 Super Bowls). So I shouldn’t say that I’d definitely choose that.
But as long as we’re talking about what the Hawks did and comparing philosophies, it’s important to keep in mind that the Hawks did not guarantee themselves a Cup by loading up on talent for one year, knowing that they’d have to dissolve the team immediately. They got themselves a chance to win the Cup, and like I said above, things could easily have gone wrong. And they’d still be screwed, only without a championship to enjoy. I’d say that what they got themselves was maybe a 50% chance of winning the Cup vs. a 30% chance. Then you roll the percentile dice and see how it comes out.
So it’s not a matter of having a guaranteed win now and sucking for 10 years vs. contending for 10 years and maybe winning the Cup once. It’s a matter of having (say) a 50% chance of winning the Cup this year and guaranteed mediocrity for a long time thereafter vs. having (say) a 25-30% chance at winning the Cup every year for the next 10 years.
To which I would add that Kings ownership almost certainly favors Quisp’s option #1. Every season that the Kings are in contention, they will draw people to Staples Center. Whereas the coattails of a Stanley Cup only last so long.
Yikes, what a choice. I guess I’d still take the Cup. But it makes the most sense as a strategy to win it even once to be competitive for several years. Even with all the skill in the world, you have to allow for the potential of injuries to key players, bad bounces, insanely hot/lucky opposition goalies, etc., etc…you know, The Randomness.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
In my hockey watching life,
I was a Bruins fan the entire 70s (until Orr retired and I left home and didn’t have a TV for 6 years). They won two cups that I didn’t get to see much of because it was pre-cable. Then, starting immediately after the second cup (72), I got to see a lot of them. In that period they lost three times in the finals, three times in the semi-finals, lost to Montreal 5 times (almost always in classic fashion), the Flyers once (when they should have won), the NYIs once, the isles first cup year. It was the best hockey I ever saw and the most exciting and riveting fan experience I ever had. 99% of my experience of that team (by which I mean, getting to watch the games, as opposed to reading the newspaper), was in almost making it. It was horrible and it was great.
When Gretzky came, we had a similar period here in LA. From ‘88 to ’93, the Kings were always almost there, culminating in McSorley’s stick. It was a great era to be a fan. We obviously never won. But it was great and we all still talk about it.
Of course, the Kings have provided two eras ‘94-’98 and ‘03-’08 that were no fun at all. I don’t know if it would have made those times more fun if we had won the cup in ’93. I doubt it. I would have just made me angry.
But then, that’s my preference always. I was just telling my six year old the other day that I would much rather lose every game by one point than win every game in a blow-out. I like being “in the game.”
This is why I’m singularly unimpressed by what the Hawks did. They have done their own franchise a disservice, and I think that will become apparent sooner rather than later. Although, you know, congratulations and all that.
Wait till this year.
Well, I’ve only ever had the Kings, so I guess that’s why I’d really like to see them go all the way. I mean, I only have childhood memories of the Fabulous Forum. Payoff would be sweet. I’m just jealous of you all who still live down there — I’m sure there’s tons of great hockey yet to come, the kind of Bruins dominance you still miss.
I totally get your point about Chicago, though — a bigger payoff would be sweeter, and they even got away with playing some stretches of pretty sloppy hockey in the finals (really, how many times are you going to be able to do that?). I understand if they just want to avoid thinking about next year for the moment; they’re probably on top of the world. However, they shouldn’t click on the numbers and then try to deny the math. Every other team is looking to the future, and it’ll catch up with them eventually.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
was enjoying reading the posts until...
You just had to bring up the stick, didn’t you. Now I depressed again :>)
A question...
We were discussing earlier that any trade that would put a team over the cap would not be permitted. What if the trade occurred when the team was already over the cap, but would put the team closer to being under the cap? Would that trade be allowed? For instance, we trade picks and a prospect to Chicago for Sharp. I’m assuming no.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 13, 2010 10:23 AM PDT reply actions
Technically, you can't be over the cap
so you can’t make a trade to get under the cap from the position of being over, because you can’t be over.
The bonus cushion rule (and the summer overage rule, whatever it’s called), allow GMs more flexibility, but technically it doesn’t allow teams to go over the cap. The bonus cushion rule specifically allows GMs to spend potential future bonus monies on the assumption that the bonuses will not actually be paid. The penalty is that, if the GM is wrong, the overage comes off next year’s cap. The reason for this exception is that potential bonus payments are not real until they stop being potential and become actual. The league chose to count these merely potential payments as though they were actual (i.e. they are counted in the cap hit), but allowed the GMs this leeway as an acknowledgment that the bonuses might not ever have to be paid, and frequently aren’t.
Since all transactions are subject to league approval, I’m not even sure there is a circumstance whereby a team could actually exceed the cap, since the league would be bound by the CBA to disallow the transaction.
For example, a team can’t make a trade that puts them over the cap. That would be disallowed.
A team can’t activate someone off of LTIR unless they have cap room.
A team can’t pick someone up off waivers if that causes them to exceed the cap.
Ah, I just thought of the circumstance. Duh. It’s the summer. You could sign a UFA that put you over the cap ceiling, but was under the 10% summer “upper limit increase”. The team has until the end of camp to get down below the cap ceiling. So that’s a circumstance where the GM has an affirmative responsibility to do something that, if the GM doesn’t act, the team will be over the cap and the league will have to take action.
Back to your question: let’s say Chicago doesn’t get it done this summer and at the conclusion of camp they are still $2MM over the cap ceiling. Your question is, would Chicago be permitted to make a deal that fixes this?
After the deadline, it would be out of their hands.
If a specific contract is deemed to be the cause of the “circumvention,” an arbiter decides whether the contract is voided or not; if a circumvention occurred, the contract is voided. However, the summer overage situation could create a situation where no one contract is to blame. In theory, the arbiter would get to decide which contract is the offending one and would rule accordingly.
That would take care of the violation, without the team making any subsequent deals as you described. However, there would also be penalties for “circumvention.” The league is given wide discretion on this.
The league (that is it say, the commissioner) could void contracts, level fines and/or suspensions, reduce the team’s cap ceiling the following year, strip the team of draft picks. Or he could do nothing (though that would be insane — right now the CBA has teeth because no one dares violate it; if the penalty turns out to be lacking, then all bets are off). I would imagine he would at the very least fine the team the amount of the overage and subtract it from their cap hit for that season and require that the team get down below that now even lower cap ceiling.
Wait till this year.
but just to be clear --
the penalties would be in addition to voiding the contract(s) that constituted the “circumvention.”
Wait till this year.
Got it. On an unrelated note; my art school degree now appears to be useless.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 13, 2010 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I think they’ll have to do what the flames did last year and dress less than 20 players for each game.
In Chicago’s case, probably like 4 players less. Also, any player they don’t dress would have to be waived. This is why i advocate a 29 team “Don’t save chicago” conspiracy.
Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism
Tyler Ennis: Freed from Portland!
Of the most importance, as they are currently (almost) over the summer cap, they would not be allowed to qualify RFAs, and therefore you could poach them without paying picks.
Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism
Tyler Ennis: Freed from Portland!
that will become more clear once we know what the cap is for 2010
at which point, yes, they are vulnerable.
Wait till this year.
that would be madness though
you would be burying players in the minors who would never clear re-entry waivers anyway, so you may as well trade them and get picks. plus if you waive them and then recall them, you’re on the hook for half the salary.
Plus, I’m not sure “I got greedy and over spent in quest of the cup” counts as “emergency conditions.”
Wait till this year.
I think there will be some temptation to let Chicago sink
If nothing else, I suspect that, deep in his heart of hearts, Bettman would like to see the Hawks be made an example of. “To encourage the others,” as the old French expression goes.
I think it would be hilarious to watch all of the other GMs get together and play hardball with Young Bowman and refuse to accept trades that didn’t have Chicago taking salary in return, thus forcing them to totally dismantle that team. But embargoes like that are rarely successful in professional sports. Someone generally refuses to hold the line.
My favorite Mirtle-article comment of the day:
Hold on, your selling half of the team that won Stanley Cup. Why fix what`s not broken?
This guy would have to go over the cap by 4 mil just to buy himself a clue. Stop making things sound so DRASTIC, Quisp!
In Dinglebarn We Trust
i'm being conservative, actually -- that's the funny part
people who think they can keep Campbell (because “he had a good playoffs”) can’t yet see that this means dealing two MORE of the big players.
Wait till this year.
But what you don’t understand is, depth won them the Cup. They can’t possibly let these players g—
Oh wait.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
They could always………………… hold Bettman up at gunpoint and force him to convince the league to raise the cap to $65 million next season. Problem solved!
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 15, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
yes, if only
The cap weren’t tied to revenue
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jun 15, 2010 2:59 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh he’d find the revenue……….. if they held him up at gunpoint! How is this a bad plan?
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 15, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Quisp, your articles on the Hawks' situation have been very informative
Thanks for writing them. Although I can see you get a little happy-joy kick out of the situation (don’t know how I know that….just a feeling ;) ).
One thing I find interesting in the cap-era is the dynasty vs. going all-in discussion, as you guys have talked about. Obviously fans want a perennial contender, but I don’t think that’s really a viability these days, because let’s be honest, what really matters is winning the cup. Like was said above, who looks at the Bills and says – “yeah, what a dynasty they had there”. I think most people would say “Man, they couldn’t win a single Super Bowl in four tries!”
Unfortunately in pro sports, first is the only thing that really counts, unless you made a Cinderella run (Ducks in ‘03, Oilers in ’06, etc.), and even then losing in the finals sucks. So if you have a team that annually finishes near the top of the pack, but can’t get it done all the way in the playoffs (i.e. Sharks, Canucks, Caps), I’d say it’s more of a disappointment than anything – even if you were to make the finals multiple years in a row and not win.
And even then, holding a dynasty together is ridiculously hard with a cap – unless you sign everyone to really long-term contracts, which doesn’t happen. So a team pretty much has a limited window in which to go for the Cup win, and if they don’t do it, it’s going to take a looooong time to make it back (Ottawa comes to mind here).
Of course, putting your team in a clusterfuck of a cap situation like the Hawks have isn’t really the main answer, I think building a solid base is really important, but you need to have the balls to pull the trigger on some really short-term gain deals when you think it’s your year to go for it. Which I think you could say the Hawks did…although it’s very very early into their “base” years to do something like that. And I’m not sure it was really a ballsy move or a stupidly mismanaged one. Sometimes those are hard to tell apart when they work out well.
But yeah, just my thoughts.
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
It's not that I'm happy the Hawks are in this situation because I dislike the Hawks
I’m happy (or something, vindicated is closer) that the world works the way I thought it did, that Chicago is going through exactly what I said they would go through a year ago, and — to the degree that I am delighted by their imminent suffering — that people who can’t add are punished.
Personally, I think “going for it” at the expense of the future is short-sighted. In any case, the mistakes Chicago made were not necessary mistakes en route to the Cup; they were just stupid.
But you a likely to be right about “dynasties.” The cap requires that GMs be extra brilliant and visionary, if there is ever any hope of the NHL seeing a dynasty again. If one should come, that GM deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
Wait till this year.
As much as the Salary cap era has eliminated the Dynasty of yesteryear, you have to look at teams like Detroit. They may not win every year, but they have been competitive for at least a decade, and as much as I haaaaaaaaaate them, they are what I would hope teams will strive for in terms of long term competitiveness, smart contracts, and shrewd signings.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jun 16, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Hopefully if they can’t get it all sorted out (which I imagine they will, even if they have to hold a bit of a firesale) the actually do get punished for breaking the cap. The worst thing would be if they do end up over, and then only get a slap on the wrist, as then everything is just going to go to hell in a handbasket.
"Playin hurt, baby that don't faze me. I don't got time for pain. The only pain I've got time for is the pain I put on fools who don't know what time it is!"
Detroit's success is a lot more about their European scouts, and Scotty Bowman, than anything real recent.
Sure, they have great front office and staff, and an owner that was willing to SPEND. But the system and players are European, and Scotty Bowman turned Steve Yzerman into a near-god. Once they learned to win, they were able to maintain it through veterans bringing along the younger players. Which is what I want the Kings to do— use a few of the current top prospects to get those proven good players, 3 or so 3 to 4 million type guys, not one 6-7 mill guy, so they can train the core now, and then also train the next crop of prospects when they coem of age.
End Corporate Personhood.
In other words, stop dicking around with Clunes and Ivanans' and Jones'. Pay for talent.
End Corporate Personhood.
Seriously, the more I think about it, why would we ice those guys with all that cap space?
End Corporate Personhood.
I like Clune. He's still a kid, remember. Give him a couple of years.
Jones? Eh. He had his moments (both great and not-great). I won’t bash him.
Raitis went to see Billy Elliot when the team was in NYC. I loved that. I also like RudyKelly’s one-act plays with him as a character.
Wait till this year.
Plus, two of those guys won't be back anyway
Jones and Ivanans are both UFAs and I would be surprised if any effort went into re-signing them. So if you’re looking forward to next season, there’s no point in having a conniption over either of them.
Clune has the potential to become Sean Avery without being Sean Avery. So it’s worth giving him another season or two to develop.
I just didn't like seeing him bounce off of people he was trying to decimate.
He has heart, and grit, good attitude, but he was seriously overmatched in the playoffs against the Canucks.
Am I just old school or something thinking that development is what the minor leagues are for, and that the big show is where you show off what you already know?
I just want the Kings to have a solid lineup, with one or maybe two spots filled by guys trying to earn their wings. 19 players, one of them like a Sean O’Donell, and 3 prospects/newbies/whatever you want to call them competing for ice time. Most games you have one guy getting into the lineup and playing like a madman to stay in, and then every 5th game or so the O’Donnell type gets a rest so you have two “temps” in the game. The rest of the roster should be solid guys.
And for DougX, dude, I am not sure if I am over-sensitive to you or what, but I just do not like the sound of “conniption” and it certainly does not fit the tone of what I wrote.
End Corporate Personhood.
Old School, or somewhat unrealistic
The fact is. in every professional sport, the big leagues have a learning curve all of their own. Rookies who don’t improve over their rookie years are called ‘flashes in the pan.’ 20-24 year-olds who don’t continue to mature physically until about the age of 27 are either freaks of nature, or they stunt their own development through bad habits. This has always been true, ever since professional baseball players had waxed moustaches.
I’m sure I’ve mentioned this before, but Bill James once did a comprehensive study that showed that baseball players tend to peak at the age of 27, plateau until they’re 32, then decline. Having followed hockey for about 35 years now, my observation is that hockey is not much different. Therefore, you can’t make definite judgments about a player who is only 22-24, only judgments about probability.
Clune has had less than half a season to adjust to the big show and show what he can do. Statisticians call that a small sample size. Plus, as Quisp said, he’s still young. He has shown some knack for getting under the other team’s skin. One may argue about the probability of whether or not he will develop into a valuable NHL player. But to say that the Kings need to “stop dicking around with him” is no less hyperbolic than using the word “conniption.”
An endnote on the development of athletes
The only exception to this rule of professional athletic development that I have ever seen is NFL halfbacks, who almost always seem to flame out by the age of 30 (Jim Brown being a classic example). Intuition tells me that the particular demands of the position can explain this.
I guess I appreciate the effort you put out, based on length of post
I really do not think it “unrealistic” to imagine a team with only two unproven AHL guys trying to break in getting regular ice time. That is the main point I am making, not whether development is valuable. It’s a matter of degree, which I thought I had made clear I wished lessened. It’s not black and white, one or the other, development good or development bad.
But it’s amazing how condescending your tone often is, when you speak to me, as if you speak irrefutable facts because you have this long viewing history. I appreciate your opinion, but it is only based on your viewpoint.
There is this point of view, also. A guy has a personal development curve; it is not specific to his age alone. Not all 22 year olds are at the same point; they are only at that particular point on their own particular curve. Sidney Crosby’s 22 is very different than Richard Clune’s. That is to cite an extreme, in Crosby, but Simmonds’ 22 is also different than Clunes. Clune is what he is now, and right now he isn’t good enough. I would not want to sabotage my team’s progress so that any one player can “develop” at a lesser pace, especially if his upside is that of Clunes. Plus, his position is also easily filled; it is 4-5 minutes of ice and go piss them off, try to get some hits and don’t take bad penalties. Dime a dozen.
I would be fine with one Clune or Ivanans in the lineup, not both. That is actually what my post was about, that my lineup would have fewer Clunes and Ivanans and more Richardsons and Simmonds. They are young, they were given their chances, and they are NHL quality players now.
To continue to give significant ice time to Clune and Ivanans would indeed be dicking around; that is my opinion. You are welcome to your opinion, but please don’t speak to me as if my ideas are preposterous, or as if yours are the rule. Honestly, bickering with you seems unavoidable, but I do not want it. If you want to disagree, fine, spare me the hyperbole and attack language like conniption. Ironically your behavior in using the word conniption to describe my posts is closer to an actual conniption than was my behavior in posting what I said.
Try this: Hey X, I disagree. Clune could become better if we give him time, but I hear you about not giving him too much time. Still, we have to give guys like him a real chance, he is so young he might get there.
That kind of tone would inspire dialogue, discussion.
End Corporate Personhood.










