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Can YOU Afford Kovalchuk?

6/30 UPDATE: Please see Can You Afford Kovalchuk NOW?

 

Four days till Thursday. Lots of time for everyone to twist themselves into pretzels. I keep hearing how much cap space the Kings have and how they/we are the "front-runners" to land Kovalchuk. Frankly, I'm not sure what front-runner means in this context, other than I guess they have to say there is one.

I will take a different approach. Take a team's current cap hit, add in a very low estimate for any RFAs the team is generally thought to be re-signing (in the Kings' case, it's Richardson and Lewis), and then add in $8.5MM cap hit for Ilya Kovalchuk, and see where that gets you, cap-wise.

The teams in red are the ones who simply can't sign Kovalchuk because doing so puts them seriously over the cap. (My definition of "seriously over the cap" in this context is, "team has several players yet to sign to get to a full roster and zero dollars per player to do it with.")

Teams in orange would be foolish to try to add a Kovalchuk cap-hit to their rosters, but they could sort of almost just barely do it. The orange teams would be putting themselves in the position of having to fill out their roster with several players who make "minimum wage."

Teams in yellow can do it and will still have $1-2MM left over per player they need to sign. Teams in green have more than $2MM per player left to sign (or else would already have a full roster), and so are obviously in the best position of all the teams.

Atlanta is in black, because he's not signing there.

Columns: CAP = cap hit; SGN = players signed; C-Sp = cap space; /P22 = cap space per player left to sign to get to a roster of 22; /P20 is the same thing but for a minimum roster of 20; LTS = left to sign; LTS22 = number of players left to sign to get to a roster of 22; C-Sp(bonus) = cap space when adding in the bonus cushion; #FA = the number of RFAs or UFAs I am subjectively determining the team is likely to sign; $FA is a ballpark (minimum) that those players are going to cost; (FA) suffix means the calculation assumes the free agents previously estimated; (IK) suffix indicates that the calculation includes Kovalchuk at an $8.5MM cap hit. BC! suffix indicates the number assumes the GM has insanely decided to spend his bonus cushion.

The charts are sorted by draft rank, with the best teams at the top. I did it this way because it is assumed Kovalchuk wants to sign with a "contender." There is a lot of information here, but the most important stuff is in the last four columns (in either chart, but more legible in the second chart). Those show what each team's cap situation would be like post-Kovalchuk (with minimal RFA signings), in terms of cap hit, cap space, players left to sign and cap dollars left for each of those players needing to be signed.

The first chart is exhaustive and you need to click on it to open a bigger, legible version. The second chart is boiled down (same stuff, fewer columns).

Picture_17_medium

Picture_18_medium

Some observations:

  • Washington - they are in a much better position to be Kovalchuked than I would have thought. This is mildly terrifying. I have to think there is a reason they won't go for it.
  • New Jersey is very high on the list. For some reason, I have mentally ruled them out, but obviously they haven't ruled themselves out or they would have traded Lombardi the negotiating rights.
  • Basically, everyone in green and yellow are viable. Thirteen teams. Four (orange) that shouldn't but could. And twelve that, as it stands, just can't. (And one Atlanta.)
  • The Kings are by no means the team in the best cap position to sign Kovalchuk. In fact, they are 13th. As sorting by "cap space remaining per player left to be signed to get to a full roster" illustrates.

Picture_19_medium

More Kovalchuking:

Vacillating Wildly

Kings Roundtable 2.0 (now with more Kovalchuk!)

 

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What really astounds me

… is the number of people engaged in speculation about Kovalchuk who pretend to know his mind. From reading some of the comments on Hammond’s blog, you’d think some of those guys are bestest buddies with him, or even neurons inside his own brain.

I don’t know what will happen with Kovalchuk because I have no idea what he values. Does he want the best chance of winning the Cup? Does he want the most money because of the ego value of being highly paid? Does he want the most money because he wants to buy a fleet of expensive cars? I have no idea. And yet the answer to that question will determine what happens over the coming days and weeks.

by DougX on Jun 27, 2010 10:17 PM PDT reply actions  

My personal opinion

is although money is no doubt important to him, I feel being on a cup winning team is the biggest factor. Is LA there? Maybe with Kovy. But I feel he will sign with one of the playoff teams who have been in them for awhile and will give him the best chance to succeed. AKA; the devils, wings (if they had the space or Kovy was being REALLY generous), Penguins, Vancouver, Washington, etc. Not all of those teams have the space, but I doubt he goes to a fringe playoff team (the constant 7/8th seeds that change almost every year) or one who hasn’t been in post-season play for awhile either.

by skly27 on Jun 28, 2010 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

if so

that means the devils or caps. the others can’t do it.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Crap

Could you imagine Kovy in Washington. Their style of play is probably closer to how he wants to play than most of the other teams in the league.

by Connie Kim on Jun 28, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

he’d fit right in. They’re basically Team Russia

I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours

by BoulderDodger on Jun 28, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Russians

The Caps only have 3 Russians on their roster, they just happen to be the biggest names in OV, Semin and Varlamov.
Last year they also had Kozlov and Fedorov, but…

by Skuba7 on Jun 30, 2010 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Okay

You’re certainly entitled to your opinion (even more than one opinion) and to speculate as much as you like.

But do you actually have any evidence to support your opinion? That’s my point.

by DougX on Jun 28, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

A message from Kovalchuk's neuron:

Hi everybody. This is one of Kovalchuk’s neurons. A lot of folks have been talking about me and other neurons, so I figure “hey, why not clear the air a little?”. Anyhoo, I, like my colleagues in Kovalchuk’s noggin, spend a lot of time thinking about cabbage as well as poonanny. When those needs are taken care of, however, we do turn our thoughts to where our host, Kovalchuk, might play ice hockey next season. The consensus? I think we’d all like to play for the Maple Leafs. Toronto is known as a pretty neuron-friendly town, and there are also some terrific Korean restaurants. We also think that playing in a hockey-centric town will be good for focussing our attention towards ice hockey and less on, well, cabbage and poonanny.
Well, gotta run. Kovalchuk’s thinking about what to eat next and it seems he needs my help.
Love,

Kovalchuk’s neuron.

by Kovalchuk's neuron on Jun 28, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

What are your thoughts on blinis? Sour cream, yes or no?

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cabbage and poonanny

Hey, that means that Kovalchuk thinks like me! Except for the cabbage part….

by DougX on Jun 28, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another gripe of mine

There are also people talking about paying for Kovalchuk as if they don’t understand the psychology of an auction, or how to manage your finances when you’re on a budget, or indeed (as Quisp would put it, and has), how to add.

This analysis does nothing to allay my suspicion that there will be an auction for Kovalchuk. And when you are in an auction, it is always possible to overpay for something, no matter how precious it is.

My opinion is unwavering: Kovalchuk would be a great addition, but only at the right price. Because in the salary cap era, where you are strictly limited in how much you can spend on players, long-term success is mainly a matter of getting good value for what money you are allowed to spend.

by DougX on Jun 27, 2010 10:23 PM PDT reply actions  

as if they don’t understand the psychology of an auction, or how to manage your finances when you’re on a budget, or indeed (as Quisp would put it, and has), how to add.

Most of America, basically. I too have felt the eBay effect! Fortunately, it’s not my job to manage a team and resist those urges.

I think the other psychologizing comes from having too much time to contemplate the whole thing, frankly. Humanity almost can’t help itself. We want to imagine a story that a) gets us what we want and b) makes a reasonable amount of sense. So they start telling themselves that Kovy would place playing for a contender above just money. Maybe that’s true, maybe it’s not; until he’s signed, it’s an agonizing wait.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes but...

You have to start thinking like Dean Lombardi and looking FORWARD – The Kings have to sign Doughty (projected 7 mil cap hit) and JMFJ (projected 3.5-4 mil cap hit), plus if Schenn makes the team he has a 3.1 cap hit PLUS they still have to sign a defenseman (2.5-3 mil cap hit) and if Hickey makes the team that’s another 1 mil cap hit and Bernier’s salary will be offset by Ersberg playing in Manchester.

Minus Williams and Handzus next season = 7.5 mil savings so you really only need to add 4 million for JMFJ and DD. The FOLLOWING season you minus Stoll and Smyth = 10 mil savings.

If you trade for Carter, what’s he going to make a year from now when he’s a RFA? Kovalchuk cannot top 8 million cap hit period, otherwise ANY team is screwed.

Okay, this year will be TOUGH but the following seasons,

by Matthew Barry on Jun 27, 2010 11:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Yes

As I have been arguing for awhile (though mostly not here), overpaying for IK this week will cost us assets a year from now when we have to sign Doughty, Johnson, Simmonds, Bernier and Moller. Over at Hammond’s site, I commented in response to someone that if IK is signed and our RFAs are signed next summer, even letting the UFAs go, we’re $5MM over the cap. So bodies will have to be sacrificed. Beyond williams and handzus (who I would like to keep, actually — zeus i mean).

Frankly, I think Stoll will be moved as soon as Schenn shows he’s ready, and maybe sooner. One of Greene or Scuderi. Brown maybe. Decisions that most fans don’t want to contemplate.

Which is why every penny counts. It could be the difference between having to lose two big contracts, and just losing one.

My point has always been that IK is doable, and in fact desirable at $7MM for the Kings. My proposal was a 10 year / $70MM deal, starting at 11MM and tapering down to 1MM in the last year. Above $8 is insane, I think. I picked $8.5 for the charts in this post because it’s the middle ground between what I think the Kings can afford (7) and madness (10). Also, $8.5 allows for someone to come in above where we’re willing to go, if DL offers 7.5, for instance. I wanted to see who was actually able to top an offer in the 7.5 range. Interestingly, changing the number to 7.5 doesn’t allow more clubs to partake. the ones who are screwed are still screwed.

also, your comment ends with a cliffhanger, and though something were about to

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

…The suspense is killing me!

by JZarris on Jun 28, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

$8 mil/year seems reasonable...

… as an estimate of the upward limit on what Kovalchuk can expect from an NHL owner. The thing is, I’m okay with $7 mil/year, but $8 is just about the point at which I start to get itchy. Hence my concern about Lombardi getting sucked into the eBay effect (which Niesy alludes to elsewhere). It’s tempting to go just a little higher than what good sense tells you you ought to be willing to pay.

My question to the panel is, will the KHL have any effect? I’ve heard that they’re in not so good financial shape right now. But OTOH, their commish told the entire world at the Winter Olympics that they would make a serious effort to get him back to Mother Russia.

by DougX on Jun 28, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

KHL

Although I think Kovy’s agent will certainly try to use the KHL to his advantage, Kovalchuk seems pretty intent on playing in the NHL. The lure of the KHL would obviously be money and being able to play in the country you were born. But Kovalchuk has been here for 10 years, and while he may retire from the NHL to play in Russia in another 10 years, now is his time to win in the Best League in the World.
How viable is the KHL when so many teams struggle at the gate?

by Skuba7 on Jun 29, 2010 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

I meant to ask

how do you handicap this playing out, as we get down to the wire?

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Given this Senario

I can see it happening as Matthew lays it out considering the apparent bounty of talent that will be developed and ready in the next two years.

Otherwise it seems like the developmental system that DL has labored to put in place with have will have been for naught.

One thing, the market aspect, correct me if wrong but it seems like there have been more Gretzky endorsements this past year then all the years in LA combined.

by USHA#17 on Jun 28, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

re #99

Yes, amazing what can happen when you’re uber-famous and suddenly unemployed.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Gotta do something to feed the dog..

…or you may wake up minus a couple of toes.

by USHA#17 on Jun 28, 2010 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow. I knew plenty of other teams had room, but this is eye-opening.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 7:29 AM PDT reply actions  

Nice Work

I’m assuming internal team budgets eliminate ATL, NSH, DAL, CAR, FLA, PHX, CBJ and TBL from that list of green teams. That leaves NYI, COL, ANA, STL, LAK, NJD as the potential bidders for his services (to my mind at least). Don’t know enough about the NYI to guess about their spending intentions, but with only 5 bidders the price could end up being much less than the $10 for 7 years he turned down from ATL.

All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com

by The Falconer on Jun 28, 2010 10:30 AM PDT reply actions  

COL supposedly will not be in the mega UFA market, so you can cross them off if you're comfortable crossing the others off

not sure about TBL, given their evolving situation. Ditto PHX.

Anaheim, if they want IK, will have to act on it before they have a deal for Bobby Ryan, which strikes me as dicey. I would not want to lose Ryan if I were the Ducks.

The other thing to keep in mind is that IK’s agent will undoubtedly remind his client that in Los Angeles there is an exponentially greater opportunity for licensing deals, than in, say, St. Louis or Long Island, or Phoenix.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Excellent Point!

Combine those opportunities with the fact that LA is a sports Mecca ( NBA,MLB,and NHL fans)…..
We also have the young talent….maybe he sees what Hossa did with Chi last year and wants to do it here in LA…which is win the cup….and make a s*@t load of cash…either through salary or as you put it licensing/endorsement deals….

"It's not illegal. It's frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane."-Alan Garner

by card_base on Jun 28, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

there is also the persistent rumor (that could be totally made up, but it's had "legs" for awhile)

that Mrs. Kovalchuk wants to live in (and/or was seen shopping for houses in) Beverly Hills.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, apparently there’s some rumor that he wants to play for “a good hockey market” and that will trump all…I don’t know where that comes from, but the Leafs fans sure believe it. (Or they are being ironic. Either way.) But there was that article in the Globe and Mail saying he was interested, but Burke wasn’t.

Also, they say your cap numbers for their team are wrong. This is supposed to freak us out (?).

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Of course Burke isn’t interested. He doesn’t want anything that doesn’t punch first and ask questions later. TRUCULENCE!

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 28, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

PUGNACITY!

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

who is "they"?

All the numbers are from Cap Geek, as of last night.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 28, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ta da. I don’t know why they think it’s wrong, or even if they’re serious. Expecting to lose some people soon, or something?

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I should probably add — I know they joke around a lot, but OTOH there seems to be a lot of sincere belief that Phaneuf will be great just because he’s a Leaf now. So sometimes it’s difficult to sort out the real vs. fake delusions.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

From Leafland

It’s not that the cap numbers are wrong… it’s that there are 2 important caveats to those numbers that aren’t being reflected:
1 – Tomas Kaberle is being shopped (no matter what Burke says in the media) and $4.25M will likely come off the books, or at least come down depending on the roster player we get back
2 – Jeff Finger is waiver fodder if it becomes necessary to clear up cap space – that’s an additional $3.5M

Coupled in with the fact that you can go over the cap by 10% in the summer (in this case, up to approx $65M until the end of Sept., Toronto definitely has the cap room. If you take away Kaberle, Finger (& Irwin who should not be on that roster list, he’s a minor leaguer) that leaves Toronto at $43M in salary (including bonuses that can be applied to the bonus cushion), and $21M under the cap with 15 players signed. Throw in the fact that you can go 10% over temporarily… there is plenty of room.

As for the “good hockey market” rumours… well that’s mostly just Leafs fans dreaming. I’d have to think that at least 1 or more of the following criteria is true:
1 – He wants to win a cup
2 – He wants to get paid. Hansomely.
3 – He wants to enjoy the city where he lives (cross Edmonton off the list)
4 – He wants to go where hockey is appreciated.

It’s that #4 rumour that has Leafs fans salivating, but there is no proof that such a condition is even on his mind. We know for a fact that WHERE he play matters more than how MUCH he gets paid (turning down that rediculous offer by Atlanta, not having darted to the KHL yet).

Apologies if any Leafs fans shit on your analysis because it was really thought out and well done. Burke has said publicly “he will not be involved in that race” but frankly, Burke is a tricky lawyer wordsmith and I don’t trust 1 thing he says when it comes to the moves he’s going to make. There hasn’t been an offseason yet where he doesn’t try to make a splash, and with the extremely thin UFA crop, I don’t see how he doesn’t at least make a pitch to acquire an elite talent in his prime without expending draft picks like the Kessel deal.

Tick Tock, Tomas. Tick Tock.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.

by nhlcheapshot on Jun 29, 2010 4:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

The reason those caveats aren't reflected in the numbers

is that they apply to every team, since anyone can say if they dump a bunch of salary they will have room.

The thing about the 10% summer cap increase is that, if a team signs a player using that temporarily available 10%, they put themselves in a position of having to make $6MM worth of deals by the end of the off-season, and everyone knows they have to make those deals, so the team will have no leverage whatsoever. Imagine how little return Toronto, for example, would get for Finger and/or Kaberle if 29 GMs knew Burke had to make a deal. Since it was actually Burke who got burned by this a couple of years ago when everyone knew he had to dump salary by the end of training camp, I would be surprised if he would be willing to put himself in the same position again.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 29, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

As long as we're talking about parsing quotes

From the phrase that you cite, it sounds to me like his position may not be much different from Lombardi’s, in that he has in mind a price that he wouldn’t mind paying for Kovalchuk, but anywhere north of that is a no-go.

It sounds to me like he’s saying that he won’t get caught up in an auction for Kovy (a sensible position). But that doesn’t necessarily mean that he wouldn’t be interested at the price he has in mind. I gotta figure he’ll at least ask Team Kovy about their demands.

by DougX on Jun 29, 2010 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess I can’t imagine a situation where there wouldn’t be a race for Kovalchuk. And I don’t see the point of any Burkiean misdirection, either. Am I missing something?

That’s not to say he can’t/won’t change his mind. He might.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 29, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah, this is all true.

I’m not arguing one way or another about which teams have the will or desire (or internal budget) to play Wheel of Kovy. I don’t believe anything anyone says related to that. Certainly many people will call and those who don’t call will be called, etc., and certainly there will be some participants who have been crossed off every list, and there probably will be some teams who decide it would be okay to eat up their summer overage if they can sign IK. The numbers only tell you what’s more feasible, which teams can do it painlessly and which can do it only with a ton of pain. The numbers (except Chicago’s) don’t tell you who is insane.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jun 29, 2010 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I meant that as a reply to the Burke-quote parsing. But “Numbers don’t tell you who is insane”…true that. Haha.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 29, 2010 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

All together, now:

“Wheel… of… Kovy!”

With some tall, leggy Nordic blonde to play Vanna….

by DougX on Jun 29, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kovalchuk will sign for what Eric Staal got and we’ll get married on top of a mountain AND YOU WON’T BE INVITED.

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Jun 28, 2010 10:40 AM PDT reply actions  

Problem is, raw cap space doesn’t say anything about need. Some teams may have a ton of cap space, but desperately need more defensemen, not forwards.

Maybe Kovalchuk wants to play with the best offense in the league? Maybe he’ll take a big pay cut for 1 year to do so? Imagine Ovechkin-Backstrom-Knuble on the 1st line, and Kovalchuk-ANYBODY-Semin on the 2nd line. Scary…

You had me at no problem.

by Ninjak on Jun 28, 2010 11:32 AM PDT reply actions  

The best part about that is the opposition’s forwards skating past the turnstile that is known as Mike Green.

In Lou We Trust: Now More productive than a New Jersey Devils Powerplay
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by Kevin Sellathamby on Jun 28, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

I still don’t get how that meme keeps going when Mike Green finished second among all D in +/- and his Corsi is comparable to Duncan Keith’s. Just sayin’…

See below. Washington’s not going to want Kovalchuk. What would they do with another not-so-physical goal scorer? They’ve got those coming out their ears, Ovechkin the Russian wrecking ball notwithstanding. They’ll be looking for a center for Semin and/or a 3-4 D.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 28, 2010 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I read KS’s comment as a joke, but not sure.

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
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by red army line on Jun 28, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

+/- really doesn’t mean anything. Just being on the ice for goals scored means that you’re part of a high scoring team. Christian Erhoff was like +30 this season, and he’s horrible at defense. Just because he’s +30 doesn’t mean he’s good defensively.

In Lou We Trust: Now More productive than a New Jersey Devils Powerplay
"Pfft, Wii’s where it’s at. *Swings toy plastic racquet, separates shoulder"- RudyKelly

by Kevin Sellathamby on Jun 28, 2010 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t want to rehash a ton of arguments, especially since they’re off-topic as well, but here’s a pretty comprehensive discussion, and pretty funny too.
BSH—Pronger not a Norris finalist

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by red army line on Jun 28, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mike Green’s season recap from Japers’ Rink

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матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 28, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mark it — he’s going to St. Louis.

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jun 28, 2010 12:12 PM PDT reply actions  

That’s the place I had pegged for him. He can be their superstar!

New Zealand's 4th best Philadelphia Flyers fan

by ToddtheFox on Jun 28, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

That wouldn’t surprise me at all.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jun 28, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kovy to STL

It only makes too much sense, and they have more Cap Space than anyone, with still some 10 players to sign. He would be the Premier player there, he would just need a Center.

by Skuba7 on Jun 30, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hello from Capsland!

Washington won’t take Kovalchuk – they have no interest. They don’t need another goal scorer (good God) – between Ovechkin, Backstrom, Semin, Fehr, Green, and Fleischmann, and with John Carlson likely to be full-time next year, they’ve got goals coming out of their ears. They might be able to do it under the cap, but I don’t think they will.

Look for Washington to go after these in free agency:
#. A big and nasty shutdown defenseman. This is what a lot of people are clamoring for. Expect John Carlson and his D partner Karl Alzner to very likely wear red next year, and for Jeff Schultz to qualify, so there may be an opening for a 3-4 Dman if Shaone Morrisonn takes his cookies and goes home.
#. A center for Alexander Semin. A playmaker with a little bit of nasty and a lot of wheels would be the order of the day here, and one who can PK would be ideal. You don’t want to put Ovechkin and Semin on the same line for everyday use, because while Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin is absolutely unholy in terms of pure offense, turnovers and excessively cute play do become a problem.

I wouldn’t worry about Washington acquiring Kovalchuk – they might be able to afford him, but they’ve got other fish to fry and aren’t likely to go chasing that kite.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 28, 2010 1:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Makes sense to me

In the age of the salary cap, it’s all about priorities, not about collecting players (Hey, I got a complete set of Russian mega-scorers! And it only cost me six bizillion dollars on eBay!). Washington has plenty of scoring punch.

by DougX on Jun 28, 2010 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, does Sean O’Donnell have any gas in his tank for another year of 17-18 minutes a night?

Atta dinnin stick a who!

by Gould Old Days on Jun 28, 2010 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the Kings would like to know that

If they thought so, they would probably want him back. One of their priorities this summer is to find someone for that role.

by DougX on Jun 28, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’d hope his minutes get pared down to 11-13 a night.

by Connie Kim on Jun 28, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Furthermore, if Kovy were to come to Washington, anything beyond 1 or 2 years max means bye-bye to one or more of Mike Green, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Brooks Laich, Semyon Varlamov, and Michal Neuvirth. Ow.

Although AO and Kovie are like best friends or something. Just sayin’…

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 28, 2010 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

If the Caps take Ilya

A question arises – If you’re Bruce Boudreau, are you sending Ovie or Kovy to 2LW? This is not a simple answer.

by EmilyB on Jun 28, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Flash can play C, so can AO

Well, maybe it’ll be like a power play. AO/Kovy at LW/LD, depending on who feels like blasting away and who feels like lurking.

Feels like 1A/1B, really.

Reminds me of that funny post on pros/cons of getting a guy at the deadline. Something like:

Caps get Kovalchuk

Pros: long summer due to each series being ended in four games or less
Cons: possible shoulder strain due to raising arms to celebrate a goal every shift

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 28, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Heck with that, Ovi’d end up with a sore shoulder from hitting the glass every shift.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 28, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Alexander Semin would get an upper body injury a la Juice hug

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
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by red army line on Jun 29, 2010 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nah, that would have to be a hand injury from playing bongos.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 29, 2010 5:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Caps fan here.

 The only way the Caps even consider it is if they do one of the following: trade Semin, get Kovy for a year or two only, or Kovy wants to be in Washington badly and signs on the cheap. Note cheap doesn’t mean a million, but say, a friendly deal or a two or three million discount

by Chimaera on Jun 29, 2010 3:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Why would they trade Semin to sign Kovalchuk? Semin’s making enough that prospects and picks won’t make a fair trade, and neither will a guy going UFA. You’d have to take a roster body back, and since Kovalchuk will make more than Semin wherever he signs anyhow, it seems like a waste of cap space to no good purpose.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 29, 2010 5:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Keep Semin; it’s the better option (long term) for you guys overall.

by Connie Kim on Jun 29, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not with Backstrom & Ovechkin locked up, plus presumably Green, Schultz, Alzner, and Carlson all very good players and possibly a long-term option in goal coming up in Varlamov, Neuvirth, or Holtby. Semin’s a 2nd liner and part time 1st liner because AO plays in front of him, and is on wing, which is the forward position of less importance.

Also, the Caps can just squeeze under the cap while keeping Semin and Kovalchuk, with cheap guys and good RFA resignings.

Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
Follow me on Twitter!

by red army line on Jun 29, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure that’s the case. Semin is a Jekyll and Hyde type of player – one night he’ll come out and crush the other team singlehandedly almost, and the next night he’ll take three dumb penalties, hit a post, and fail to backcheck twice, resulting in goals against both times. He’s good for 35-40 goals a year but part of that salary pays for the Excedrin required for fans and coaching staff. :)

Between Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, and Semin, Semin is the most expendable of the four.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 30, 2010 5:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why would they trade Semin to sign Kovalchuk?

I was commenting on your original statement.

by Connie Kim on Jun 30, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

If Tom Hicks wasn’t broke, I’m sure the Stars would have interest in Kovalchuk. We have plenty of cap space, but no money.

Here's to all us girls who love hockey...and the men who play it.

by Brad_Richards_Rocks on Jun 29, 2010 11:02 AM PDT reply actions  

$45 Million

Seems to be Dallas’ self-imposed Cap for this coming season. Boy you guys need a new owner.

by Skuba7 on Jun 30, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Burke's Laws

Law #1 NEVER give more than a 5 year term on contract.

Law #2 NEVER frontload a contract ( can you say PRONGER?) over a ridiculous term…it’s cheating. Burke said that, not me.

Law #3 If you are gonna be paid in the 10 mil range and only play at one end of the rink, you better SCORE 70. At 5.4 mil, Burke expects a minimum 35 every year from Kesticle, and Phil knows it.

So don’t worry, Toronto will be the LAST team that gets in this upcoming bidding war.

by Petepuck on Jun 29, 2010 10:15 PM PDT reply actions  

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