Chapter IX: In Which I Vacillate Wildly Re Kovalchuk
by Quisp on Jun 5, 2010 3:15 PM PDT
in Capmania, Capaphobia, Capaphilia, Capnesia
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PrintAn interesting point/counter-point on the value of Kovalchuk. First, a pro-IK piece from Yahoo Sports (Inside Kovalchuk's value, where he will sign as free-agent star - Puck Daddy - NHL - Yahoo! Sports), and then the con-IK rebuttal from NBC blogs (Ilya Kovalchuk isn't worthy of a big raise - ProHockeyTalk - Hockey - NBC Sports). Both are worth reading, and if you take the average of the two, you end up with my opinion, which might be summed up as:
Kovalchuk is a huge talent and a true sniper the likes of which we are not likely to see in free agency any time soon, who may or may not be a team player, and who is willing and able to play a defensive system, unless he isn't, and who is driven, and/or unable, to succeed in the playoffs -- all of which will make him ultimately worth it no matter how much he is paid, until later on, at which point whoever signs him will live to regret it.
[Rudy? A little help here]
All I know is, I can only make sense of signing Kovalchuk if his deal is in the neighborhood of $70MM/10 years range. Cap hit of $7MM, structured so that he's the richest player in the NHL for a couple of seasons, and tapering it off down to peanuts in the last years. Something like: 11, 11, 10, 10, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2, 1. Highest paid player in the league for two years, then tapering down to a respectible $8MM after five seasons, and then becomes a relative bargain in his declining years. He gets a cap hit higher than Kopitar, which makes him the biggest cap hit on the team (until the Doughty contract, anyway).
Generally, I think people think a cap hit of $7MM for IK is a pipe dream. I'm not so sure. I think it makes sense. And if Kovalchuk really wants to be on a team that's built to win for the foreseeable future (as opposed to the Rangers or Leafs, to pick two names), he'll take that deal over $100MM/10 years from Sather or Burke or whoever.
I doubt Lombardi would offer more than what I just outlined (maybe as high as $8MM? I don't know. I'm not privvy to the fly-on-the-wall stuff, so i can't judge). I can't really think of a better team for Kovalchuk to want to come to, if he's as interested in winning as he says he is. Would he really rather be in St. Louis, or Vancouver?
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Are we for him before we are against him, or against him before we are for him? And what is up with those nipples?
The positive quote by Lou in the PD article was interesting to me, but then it dates to after the acquisition — all sorts of reasons to be gushy in the press about how much of a team player he is. Hmm. Maybe we should try to find more post-playoff ones.
Here’s an interview with Lemaire where he defends letting Kovalchuk play his own way. I don’t even know how to take that — was it assumed it would be a bad idea to even try to change his game? Or just that the Devils obviously needed firepower? It does at least suggest that he wasn’t asked to change and then failed to do so. Sigh. Oh well. I’m back to trusting in Dinglebarn, etc, etc.
Long summer.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
i'm against him except at the price i mentioned
And at that price I might still be against him. Would I rather have marleau? Under certain conditions. At what price? Do I get to sign. Volchenkov? Doubt it either way. Would I rather have volchenkov and no forward? Sometimes I would. But then most of my frustrations have to do with inability to finish. If u add kovi’s output to our top six — and basically ur subbing him for PURCELL — that’s a huge upgrade.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jun 5, 2010 7:07 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
A Repost of Comments with Player X and a PS
Repost:
I am not keen on IK as a King. This off season presents a special challenge; There isn’t a great selection of offensive free agents on the market this year, much less one which (IMO) fits the Kings. Do we want the Kings to choose a free agent or settle for one?
Be patient and skip an expensive offensive free agent until 11-12. Why bind the team to a free agent who’s main contribution would be goals against teams like Columbus? Do we really want another skilled player who goes soft in big games?
Use this season to firm up the defense, add two 25-30 goal grinders and one defensive forward, wait until next season to shop for an offensive free agent. These days its too easy to blow up a team’s future ability to maneuver.
PS
Leave to a Russian to commend a Russian for honoring a contract that “paid him $7.5 million per year in his last two years” then add “And Kovalchuk stuck with the team.”. What will he do next, play some D? Let him sign with team Koba.
Should the Kings really scrap their plan and risk all on a player moving past his peak?
I agree with much of what was said in the PD article. If DL is responsible, which his track record entirely shows, is that if IK is signed, it will be under terms that DL has allocated to “the plan.” Acquiring IK would be a tremendous boost for any club, I especially thought the multiple quotes my Lamiere shed light on IK’s character, that he was entirely a team player. This was the first season where he was actually on a playoff team with capable teammates. Unfortunately for the Devils, trying to fit IK onto the roster 1 month before the start of the playoffs and then expecting him to lead to the cup was wishful thinking, but still a worthy endeavor. Give him a season of playing with the team before evaluating his playoff abilities.
It’s the same thing DL has been saying all along: it’s all about the right player at the right price, and I would add at the right time, exactly why DL didn’t get IK at the deadline. He’s never saying never, but, not at this time.
Off topic but I'm surprised you haven't said much about it Quisp
The Kings not giving Geordie Wudrick another contract, therefore he goes back into the draft. Mistake by DL or did K. Clifford, Clune and the emergence of Dwight King make Wudrick expendable?
It's a 50 contract limit problem
which I plan to attempt to address soon, before the draft (since obviously he will be re-entering the draft pool). I will have to do some complicated adding on fingers and toes, but I believe we’re close enough to 50 that if we assume Schenn and Clifford make the team this fall, and assume we add 2 or 3 free agents, there would be literally no room for GW.
and to answer the other part of your question, yes, I think the LW power forward depth chart includes Clifford, King and Wudrick, and there wasn’t likely to be room for all three. Clune, not so much, he’s a different sort of player. Clifford and King are more in the Lombardi mold. Snarly.
Of course it could turn to be a mistake, but if it’s a choice between Geordie and CLifford or King, I think it’s the right mistake to make.
Wait till this year.
Kovalchuk is a huge talent and a true sniper the likes of which we are not likely to see in free agency any time soon, who may or may not be a team player, and who is willing and able to play a defensive system, unless he isn’t, and who is driven, and/or unable, to succeed in the playoffs — all of which will make him ultimately worth it no matter how much he is paid, until later on, at which point whoever signs him will live to regret it.
[Rudy? A little help here]
Kovalchuk doesn’t play defense. Corvettes don’t have a lot of trunk space. Kovy’s a good teammate, he can score by himself at a level unmatched by anyone except Alexander Ovechkin, the playoff thing is dumb, he’ll probably be overpaid, he’s Russian, I love him so much.
The only problem I see with your plan to sign Kovy is that he’ll only be 36 at the end of the deal. I don’t know why he’d be okay with only making a million dollars at that point.
And if I’m being 100% honest I’m a little skeptical about signing Kovy because he’s a goal scorer and they don’t age that well. He won’t score as many goals in the next 5 years as he did in the previous 5.
RudyKellikov
I don’t know why he’d be okay with only making a million dollars at that point.
Oh. Because he “retired” five years earlier and went to the KHL.
And if I’m being 100% honest I’m a little skeptical about signing Kovy because he’s a goal scorer and they don’t age that well. He won’t score as many goals in the next 5 years as he did in the previous 5.
Somebody smart ran those numbers and showed that most scorers peak at 27.
I mostly don’t think Lombardi will sign him. Because of the things you mentioned, Marleau will look better to him. Marleau has a better chance of aging nicely into a defensive guy who can still hurt you. And his contract won’t be as long, or as lucrative.
Lombardi will end up doing something we haven’t yet considered.
Wait till this year.
Or, There's Plan C
Namely, that he packages prospects and picks for an established player, which (as far as I can tell) is something that he has talked about more often that pursuing a UFA this summer.
Dropping Geordie Wudrick is yet another reminder that the Kings are probably stocked with as much young talent that they can use, and they stand to pick up even more in a few weeks. Trade is all about swapping what you have in abundance to fill your needs. It’s just a matter of picking the right assets to swap out.
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