How many 50 goal scorers have gone on to play at 44?
by Quisp on Jul 19, 2010 1:18 PM PDT
in Kovalchuk
64 comments
Zero. Okay, how about age 43? One. Messier. Scored 18 goals. Age 42? Three. Messier, Andreychuk, Bucyk. (scored 18, 6, 5.) Age 41? Bucyk, Recchi, Messier, Bobby Hull, Gary Roberts. (scored 20, 18, 7, 6, 4.)
Is Kovalchuk in the same league as those guys? Well, yes, he's in the NHL! Sorry. Other than that, no, he's not.
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So what you’re saying is… the Devils were trying to circumvent the CBA?
That’s okay… Los Angeles would’ve done the same thing to get him if they could.
Denis Gauthier sucks at hockey... and life.
They could and they didn’t. As Leiweke said, it’s about cap not cash. The Kings could throw the millions at Kovy and the years, but they made the smart choice and didn’t.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't have a problem with exploiting loopholes
i just wonder where the line is. maybe it’s at age 45.
Wait till this year.
Howe was what, 52? Maybe that’s it.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Seems like a bitter post, which for sure wouldn’t have been written had Kovy signed with L.A.
by st.pattysdaymassacre26 on Jul 19, 2010 1:28 PM PDT reply actions
Now, GFY.
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 19, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
don't be so sure.
read my post from over the weekend about the expected decline of 50 goal scorers after age 26.
Wait till this year.
i actually found that post great
as you said there, it doesn’t take into account intangibles that players bring to the locker room, but I don’t see Kovy being in Messier or Yzerman’s league in that sense as he gets older.
happy ninja is happy....and wants to share its new toy!
by puppetmasterp on Jul 19, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
15 year, $80 mil
cap hit: $5.333/yr.
Now that Rich has confirmed that offer, I’m extremely discouraged with our organ-I-zation. That’s shockingly low for a player of his quality, well below what we all figured it would cost to sign him, and well below what Quisp and others recognized was our max offer (while still being able to retain DD, JJ, etc.). If DL knew he wouldn’t be going above that annual salary, he was very misleading to the fans in his desire to sign IK. If he was restricted from going higher by ownership, then it’s on them, and that’s pathetic. We’re never going to sign an elite talent if we’re not going above $5.333/yr (unless it’s a 30 year/$160mil deal?).
What a brutal day to be a Kings’ fan. Why don’t you stay in Europe Liewecke, see if you can Zidane and Roberto Baggio to $80mil contracts to play for the Galaxy.
3 points in response
1) The value of the Kings’ best offer really doesn’t matter that much until we know for sure the value of NJ’s best offer. If the Kings’ couldn’t have beaten it anyway no way no how without selling the farm, I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it. So far, the most credible report I’ve seen so far is that NJ got him for $102 mil over 17 years, and I don’t know how it’s structured.
2) We can make all the educated guesses that we want. But Lombardi and Solomon know better than any of us what it will probably take to lock up Doughty and the other young studs. It’s that calculation that has more influence than anything else on what the Kings could really afford to offer Kovalchuk.
3) See Quisp’s post on aging and its effect on goal production. For that matter, see this post. There is clearly a point beyond which opening up the vault for Kovalchuk is sheer folly. I have a feeling that NJ will not see that much of a net gain from this signing even in the short term because they’re in a cap crunch now and they will have to lose at least 1, probably 2 valuable players before the summer ends.
Another way of looking at it
If Kovalchuk had signed with the Kings for 15 years and $80 mil, I would not be entirely relieved or happy. Somewhat, yes. But not entirely. These things would be nagging at me:
1) For that kind of money, Kovalchuk had better score 200 goals in the next 5 seasons, or he’s not worth it. In short, the flip side of great expectations is the pressure to live up to them, and less margin for error if you lose a little bit of your edge.
2) He’d better not get hurt. The memory of Jason Allison and Adam Deadmarsh is still like a punch to the solar plexus.
3) For that kind of money and term, he’d better get a Kings tattoo on his ass. A big, colorful one. Because if he can get away with being anything less than a totally committed team player when he has a contract like that, it can’t be good for the team as a whole. And I think it’s hard to read the last few weeks and come away with the feeling that IK isn’t just a little selfish in his aims and goals.
What DougX said. Agreed in full.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Your 1st 2 Points Are Valid, but...
after that I have to disagree with you. With that logic, you shouldn’t sign any players to longterm deals because of the risk. Problem with that is, you’re not going to sign any elite players, and you’re team is going to peak as a perennial 2nd round playoff team. In today’s NHL, if you want elite talent, you can either (a) be the worst team in the league, or (b) sign them to an absurdly long deal to bring the cap hit down while giving the player the money for which they are looking.
At the end of the day, there’s just as much risk in sticking to the belief that you’ve drafted a stanley cup winning group of players, as there is in signing a guy who is already one of the best offensive players and fills several glaring needs in your team to a 15-year deal. And while you are correct, @DougX, the Allison/Deadmarsh injury days are definitely still painful, so is the rest of the Kings’ history.
I’d like to conclude by clearly stating that I’m not one of these, “we should’ve paid Kovy whatever it took to get him here” fools. I firmly believe that keeping our core intact is our top priority, period. I just think $5.333 is a joke. We’ve done the math. We’ve read the articles. We’ve fallen asleep at the computer analyzing the price at which Kovy becomes too big a risk. And $5.333 wasn’t it. Wasn’t close, in fact. That’s what disappoints me most.
And to answer @Great ice’s post: no. If $5.333/yr. was their offer, I don’t think they tried hard enough.
Oh, and For the Sake of Argument, I'm Under the
Assumption that the widely reported 17 year, $100million deal is accurate (forget about the bonuses, that is sketchy to say the least).
In that case, then:
Would you, if you were Dean Lombardi, have offered more than that?
If not, then your disgust at Kings’ management is actually rather silly.
Yes, if You're Going to Offer 15/$80mil,
and you’re told 17/$100 is better (it is), then you figure out a way to make your bid more enticing. In all likelihood, probably 15 years for $90 million. For an extra $667k per year (one entry level contract), you’re still getting a cap hit lower than most of us expected ($6mil), while also presenting an offer that is significantly higher per year than the Devils’. Otherwise, what’s the incentive for Kovalchuk? How did this go on for almost 3 weeks? What were we pitching him? Endorsements? Well, I’m sure the Devils were able to convince him that he could make the same endorsement money as well as staying with teammates he’s already played with. Add in the argument that he’d continue on with a proven, winning franchise as opposed to a franchise that hasn’t done anything.
If Kovy walks away from 15/90 (not a lot of $$$ for an owner who paid 32 year old Beckham $250 over 5 years), you can tell your fans you did everything you could and that you still believe your deal was better, he just chose the $$$. Again, how does this go on for 3 weeks if the Kings offer wasn’t close to the Devils? Something doesn’t add up.
Also, you didn’t answer my question: which “elite NHLer” (subjective term), making $5.333/yr. or less (non-ELC) would you sign, if you were GM of the Kings? I’m guessing you haven’t answered because, in your opinion, none of these guys should be given longterm deals because there’s too much risk involved in all of them.
(hope this makes sense. finishing up the little work I did today while typing this and dealing with my frustration. it’s possible this is completely incoherent)
What I was trying to communicate was...
If we were never even in the same ballpark, how/why did the organIzation put the fans through this for 3 weeks?
also, the 15/90 was just an example. If $90mil is too much, then you do 10/$65, 12/$75, etc. The point is, if they’re offering more years AND more per year, how could there have been a “98% chance he was going to sign with us”? Why would we he fly him out here? Why would talks be on/off 3 times?
During the entire process, I was convinced it was b/c DL was sticking to his # and Kovy didn’t have any other real suitors (as a Dodgers fan myself, the back n’ forth reminded me a lot of Boras’ negotiation w/ Dodgers re: Manny’s new deal). I fully supported DL not giving in to Kovy/Grossman’s games, and thought he was doing a really great job. Now that the details of the contract are out (http://lakingsinsider.com/2010/07/19/money-matters), it seems obvious to me that Grossman was playing DL and the rest of us as the whole time. We were the “favorites”, Kovy had so many reasons to come out here, etc . Secretly though, he was waiting for the Devils to finally give him what he wanted. Looks like Grossman knew what he was doing all along, as did Kovy for hiring him.
I agree with you about Kovadonnachuk....
Here is the numbers on HIS contract
a NMC to 2016-17 and an NTC from 2018-19 to 2026-27. The salary breakdown is as follows:
2010-11: $6 million
2011-12: $6 million
2012-13: $11.5 million
2013-14: $11.5 million
2014-15: $11.5 million
2015-16: $11.5 million
2016-17: $11.5 million
2017-18: $10.5 million
2018-19: $8.5 million
2019-20: $6.5 million
2020-21: $3.5 Million
2021-22: $750,000
2022-23: $550,000
2023-24: $550,000
2024-25: $550,000
2025-26: $550,000
2026-27: $550,000
to me, this looks rediculous.
Yes, it does seem that the Kings got played
But I don’t see how what Lombardi did was unreasonable, much less “buffoonish.” On the contrary, it seems to me that he made a serious, sincere effort to sign a major free agent (just what so many fans wanted him to do). He figured out the best offer that he felt that he could afford to make; he made it; and he kept it open until Kovalchuk formally turned him down.
It seems abundantly clear to me that he did stick to his guns in that he absolutely refused to pay more than he felt he could afford. Good negotiators are both flexible and firm.
And FWIW, it seems Hammond was a little off in his report on the term of the Kings’ offer. Lombardi says here that he offered $80 mil over 13 years, which would make the cap hit a little over $6 mil/year, which is actually slightly north of the cap hit of NJ’s offer. That may or may not convince you to reconsider your argument that Lombardi is clownishly incompetent. FWIW.
the problem is, you can't have a limitless number of "elite" contracts
we have kopitar’s, and doughty’s is imminent. That’s two huge ones. if you have three…you are by definition in a dangerous area.
Wait till this year.
I disagree. I think they did try hard enough. Lombardi is known as a guy who does all the math, breaks down all the charts, and lays out what the future looks like. Let’s say Doughty gets a Duncan Keith like deal, $5.5mm. Then Johnson get’s a Seabrook like support deal, $3.5mm. Then Simmonds get’s a 2nd line winger type deal, let’s be real kind and say $2.7mm. Okay, now let’s add in Kovy’s expected deal (I’m hearing now it’s 17 years, $102mm). That’s 6 flat. That’s $46.575mm against the cap with 6 forwards, 4 defenseman, and 1 keeper. And that 1 goalie is Quick, not Bernier. That’s 11 players. You at least need 20, preferably 22. Do you want the Kings in a Chicago-like cap-meltdown?
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
I Want the Kings to
win the Stanley Cup. I don’t think they can do that with their current roster, but I think they would’ve been one of the favorites to do so with their current roster, plus Kovy, plus a top 4 Dman. I further believe both of those pieces could’ve been added with some creativity, while also managing to keep the core intact. Don’t forget that players like Smyth ($6.25) and Williams ($3.5) come off the books, too.
Great re-post btw, @Quisp. What a brutal day to be a Kings fan (especially with the salt-in-the-wound, aka Gagne going to TB for NOTHING).
I want them to win the cup too. Those numbers I crunched were without Smyth and Williams, that’s next years cap if we were to sign Kovy. So those 6 fwds were Kopi, Kovy, Brown, Stoll, Simmonds, and Parse. Hardly enough.
I respect your opinion, I just disagree.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Right on
I respect yours too, my man. You’re clearly not one of these fools who writes things without taking the time to research your opinion. Further, today’s news is a lot to stomach, and obviously the number at which Kovy becomes a bad signing is 100% subjective. Frankly, I’ve read several good arguments today on both sides of this issue.
The biggest question that remains, imo is: which player would you sign at a cap hit of $5.333 or less (who is not an ELC) that would improve our squad more than Kovalchuk? If not Kovy, then who? Or, do you believe so strongly in our system (like DL), that we can just hold the course and win the cup 2, 3, 4… years down the line? (I’m genuinely asking that question and looking at cap numbers as we speak)
Right on
I respect yours too, my man. You’re clearly not one of these fools who writes things without taking the time to research your opinion. Further, today’s news is a lot to stomach, and obviously the number at which Kovy becomes a bad signing is 100% subjective. Frankly, I’ve read several good arguments today on both sides of this issue.
The biggest question that remains, imo is: which player would you sign at a cap hit of $5.333 or less (who is not an ELC) that would improve our squad more than Kovalchuk? If not Kovy, then who? Or, do you believe so strongly in our system (like DL), that we can just hold the course and win the cup 2, 3, 4… years down the line? (I’m genuinely asking that question and looking at cap numbers as we speak)
i think you also have to consider the possibility that Lombardi did not think he was worth more
which, frankly, is a valid argument.
Wait till this year.
Long-term contracts are almost never in a team's best interest
And for precisely the reason that they present teams with such considerable risk. They are a result of the fact that the balance of power between players and teams has shifted so dramatically in the last 40 years.
I understand that in practical terms, elite players demand these kinds of contracts. But I’m not arguing that the Kings should not have offered one to Kovalchuk at all. I’m pointing out that the more of a team’s resources you commit to a single player, the more risk you take, and the greater the anxiety over whether or not this particular move was a good idea. And that is something that has been widely forgotten in the hysteria of the past three weeks. Not so much around here, but in other quarters (ahem, Hammond’s commenters, ahem).
Yeah, how many years after Tampa signed Vinny was it before they were trying to unload him? How long did it take for DiPietro to become Capt. Injury? How long after the Hawks sign Hossa for 12 yrs do they have to blow up their team?
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Another counter-point to your counter-point
You’re averaging out the cap hit under the assumption that the Kings would have a $5.3 mil/year cap hit every year for each of the next 13 years. If that is, in fact, how the Kings’ offer was structured, how would you feel about the Kings sucking up a $5.3 mil/year cap hit 10 years from now in exchange for pretty much nothing?
Amen.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
@DougX, Again, It's All Hypothetical
How would you feel absorbing a $5.3mil cap hit if we win 5 cups during Kovy’s 15 years and he wins 2 Conn Smythes?
FYI, according to capgeek, there are 50 players in the league with a cap hit of at least $5.7mil. What kind of buffoons (nicest word I can use there) are in the Kings’ front office if they think a guy who turned down a 10-year, $100mil deal a year ago is going to accept being viewed as the (approx) 65th highest paid player in the league?
Again: if the Kings weren’t willing to go past $5.333 million, they grossly misled us. He was never going to sign a deal like that. And shoveling all this crap down our throats for three weeks, getting our hopes up, genuinely makes me sick.
Which elite NHLer do you think will agree to the same cap hit as the 65th highest paid player?
That's an extreme hypothetical
But to take it at face value: If the Kings were to sign Kovalchuk to a 13-year contract and win 5 Stanley Cups largely because of his contribution, then all of those Cups would have to come within the next 5-6 years, because the odds strongly favor Kovalchuk declining in importance to the team after the age of 32 (or have you not read what Quisp demonstrated on this matter?). How likely is that to happen? I would say not at all.
But yes, if the Kings are stuck 10 years from now with a $5 mil+ cap hit that offers no present return because of a deal that they made with a player who is no longer offering a significant contribution, I would regret it, no matter how successful they had been in the past. I’m a Dodgers fan, and I’ve learned that consoling yourself with past glory only gets you so far. I strongly suspect that 10 years from now, a lot of New Jersey fans will regret that Lamoriello pumped this kind of cash/cap hit into trying to fan the embers of a faded dynasty.
The flip side of your argument — and this is especially true in a salary cap environment, where there is a legislated limit to what you can spend on payroll — is ask in all seriousness whether ‘elite’ players as you define them are always a good value for the incredible contracts that they command? Did Hossa win the cup for the Hawks, or was the emergence of Keith, Toews and Kane more important, combined with the fortuitous arrival of Niemi?
A couple of years ago. a lot of Kings fans who thought as you appear to think were disappointed when Lombardi could not sign Gomez, Briere and/or Drury. But you could make a case that all of them (who signed for a lot less money than Kovalchuk is getting) were badly overpaid compared to what they have actually contributed to their teams.
That’s one big reason why I think it’s pretty damned harsh to call Kings’ management “buffoonish” for offering IK a paltry $80 million over 15 years. That sounds like a pretty good offer to me.
Another is that you did not address my question of whether you, as Kings’ GM, would have beaten NJ’s offer of $102 mil over 17 years. If you can honestly say yes, I’d say you’re nuts. If not, you have no reason to complain about anything the Kings have done, because there was no way that they would netted the big fish anyway.
Read this
and tell me they didn’t try hard enough. http://lakingsinsider.com/2010/07/19/lombardi-quotes-part-i/
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
After reading that, I must say....
He just played DL for a fool. He really didn’t want to play for the Kings. He used the Kings to up the Devil’s offer. At least DL didn’t get suckered in too badly. Kovadonnachuk, what a joke he became.
I disagree, I think he really wanted to play for the Kings. I think if he were playing for no money and he looked at NJ’s roster and the Kings he would come to LA, but the desire for $$$ just outweighed (for him) the desire to play with an optimum team.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't buy it.
If he wanted to play for the Kings, he would have taken the $80MM. That’s plenty of compensation to do what you want to do.
Wait till this year.
Correction
I think his desire to play for the Kings was high, but his desire for money was higher. Much higher. About $22mm higher.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Let me be clear, I am by no means defending Kovy.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Nor should you feel the need to.
Let’s face it, Kovi was looking for a combo of $$$ (#1) and the possibility of winning (#2) and he got what he wanted. It was a business deal pure and simple and as much as I wanted Mrs. Kovi to twist his arm into taking less I understand that this was a business decision and he took the best deal on the table.
I have to disagree.
“plenty of compensation” is relative and subjective. You get offered 20M more and see where you go.
While I agree with most everything you say Quisp, that just sounds bitter.
by 88fingerslukee on Jul 19, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
but the devils didn't up their offer, really
he came out here to see if the kings could be played into beating the new jersey offer, and they didn’t bite, so he took the new jersey offer.
Wait till this year.
I believe DL gave him an offer around 10 years, 75MM. Kovadonnachuk wanted his 100MM contract and the Devils caved in to his demands.
Yup, I think that's it
NJ caved and gave him the $100 mil contract. :-/ Didn’t think Lamoriello would give in like that, but he did.
Just out of curiosity…who is the oldest guy to have ever played in the NHL? Howe with the Whalers?
In Dinglebarn We Trust
yeah, howe and then chelios
elite snipers do not age gracefully, the possible exceptions being Selanne and Brett Hull, but I wouldn’t be paying $100MM to get Selanne/Hull numbers. No thanks.
Wait till this year.
Yeah. I’d just be tickled to hear the fight over league approval.
“No one plays until they’re 44!”
“Well, there was Howe…he scored 15 goals.”
“Oh, so one guy? And then Chelios?”
“Hey, you allowed Hossa!”
“@#%&!*!”
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Don’t forget, Hossa is supposed to play until he’s 44. That’ll totally happen (eyeroll)…
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
42*
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
But of course!
Seriously, NHL, no fair acting grumpy last year for nothing — if you didn’t retaliate, you could see this coming.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
It’s vexing.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s human nature. Bound to happen. And why not try? What harm is there?
Regardless, if it’s true he’s getting 11.5 million a year when he’s 30-35, regardless of the low cap hit, I find it hard to believe any team would take him in trade. He’s not going to be worth it at that point in time. Heck, he isn’t even worth 11 million now. But what do I know.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
The harm in trying is that, technically, if the league rules that your contract is void, it can also penalize the team for the circumvention.
it’s not just, oh that’s not approved. it could be “oh that’s not approved and you have to give up picks and also your cap is lower by 5MM, have a nice day.”
if there wasn’t that threat, every contract would be 700 years long.
Wait till this year.
Totally off the wall and speculative:
But how would we feel about going after a guy like Fleischmann?
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2010 4:40 PM PDT reply actions
Thanks for the link!
That is a good read, and I’m glad to have it.
“The salary cap can legislate against some things, but it unfortunately cannot put the brakes on the kinds of grandiose notions some hockey executives get when their passion and competitiveness usurps their common sense.”
Word.
Not that it will stop the declarations from other quarters that Lombardi’s head should be displayed on a pike on a street corner in El Segundo, or that Tim Leiweke is worse than Hitler, or that AEG clubs baby seals and serves them to Mr. Anschutz on a silver platter, all because they failed to sign Ilya Kovalchuk. But it’s always good to hear a voice of reason.
I think that I will largely stick around here until training camp opens and avoid LA Kings Insider except for the stuff written by Rich.
You are quite welcome.
Oh, yeah, I swore off the comments section of anywhere but here a few days ago. If you want to see some truly funny ones, check the comments below Helene’s post today in the Times (online).
Good find, JZ. Thanks for sharing.
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 19, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions
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