Kavka's Toxin / Kovalchuk's Intent
by Quisp on Jul 24, 2010 1:37 AM PDT
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PrintKavka's toxin puzzle - Wikipedia
- An eccentric billionaire places before you a vial of toxin that, if you drink it, will make you painfully ill for a day, but will not threaten your life or have any lasting effects.
- The billionaire will pay you one million dollars tomorrow morning if, at midnight tonight, you intend to drink the toxin tomorrow afternoon.
- He emphasizes that you need not drink the toxin to receive the money; in fact, the money will already be in your bank account hours before the time for drinking it arrives, if you succeed.
- All you have to do is...intend at midnight tonight to drink the stuff tomorrow afternoon.
- You are perfectly free to change your mind after receiving the money and not drink the toxin.
(Hat-tip to Puck Daddy, whose commenter invoked Kavka.)
Gregory Kavka was a moral philosopher whose work dealt with what he called paradoxes of (nuclear) deterrence, some (many? all?) of which dealt with the concept of intent. In the case of the famous toxin, Kavka's argument (if I am qualified to paraphrase it, which I'm probably not) you can't actually intend to do something later, in order to receive a pay-off now, when you know that when "later" arrives, there will no rational reason to do what you "intended" to do, because the pay-off has already occurred and can't be retracted.
Related to Kovalchuk, Kavka -- if he were a sports lawyer for the NHL, and not a deceased moral philosopher on the topic of mutually assured destruction -- would argue, not only is it not possible for him to promise to do something that he has no reasonable expectation of being able to do, but it's not possible for him to intend to do it either.
Shorter Kavka: get paid up front.
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Quisp:
Since puck daddy brought up the RFAs, I figure I will ask the questions here. Is the compensation level for draft picks determined by the cap hit?
If true and the NHLPA wins their fight over Kovalchuk’s contract, what would stop a team from offering Drew Doughty a $115/23 contract for a cap hit of $5 million. This would only cost the team a 1st, 2nd & 3rd pick. Not a bad trade to have Doughty locked up for a $5 million cap hit for life.
Of course this is an extreme example, but you know some GMs will be salivating for some of the RFAs on teams with low cash budgets.
keep in mind the kings can match any offer and also doughty would first have to accept the offer
neither of which would happen
Wait till this year.
cap hit is not what is used for compensation
per section 10.4, the compensation is determined by the total amount of contract / # of years or 5, which ever is less. So for the $115/23 contract example, the compensation would be 115/5 = 23. That’d cost ’em 4 first rounders.
by -J on Jul 25, 2010 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions
True, but...
…we really don’t know what some players will or will not sign. And there isn’t a lot of evidence that AEG would spend this amount of cash for 1 player. I don’t think anyone would offer that contract or that Doughty would sign it, but some strange offers could end up being made if the CBA is broken by Kovalchuk’s contract. How about $150/30? He would be 50+, but remember that 1 player played into his 50’s. :)
Remeber when everyone was saying Lou would never do one of these extremely long contracts?
but (i think, I would have to research it in detail) you bring up a good point in general
which is the possibility of RFA offer sheet wars. It’s another argument that the league could make. If the KOvalchuk contract were to stand, it would open the door to absurd-term offer sheets, which the team would be forced to match, causing even the teams that don’t wish to be stupid with 100 year contracts to be stupid against their will, just to retain their players.
I will look into the offer sheet language in the CBA, to see if there isn’t some simple provision preventing this from happening. Otherwise I think it’s a pretty persuasive detail in general.
Wait till this year.
Bobby Ryan anyone?
Would the Ducks be able to match a $126/21 offer sheet for Bobby Ryan (if signed by Ryan)? You could easily put some massive money up front and still only have a $6 million cap hit (1st,2nd & 3rd pick). Not a bad trade for Ryan.
Of course, the same long term risks still apply for the team offering it, but why not for the rich clubs?
I can’t imagine that there would be contract limits for RFAs and not UFAs in the CBA. Aren’t they all just SPCs? The only difference is that there is compensation for RFAs.
Not that any of these doomsday signings could take place, but who really knows?
Retirement rules in CBA?
Hey Quisp, everyone says that the cap hit goes away when a player retires, but where is this in the CBA? I was searching for anything in the CBA that deals with retirement and couldn’t find anyting.
Do you know which article states what happens to the SPC when a player retires?
I'll look it up for you. It's true, though.
And if you think about it, how could it be any other way. You can’t stop a guy from retiring. And the club certainly can’t be expected to pay for a guy who retires. All the CBA can do is make it hard for a retired guy to come back, to deter fake retirements. There are provisions for this, but I don’t have them mentally handy.
Wait till this year.
I don't know if people have seen this...
dchesnokov Traktor’s (KHL) Director said #LAK prospect Voinov and #FLA prospect Dadonov will return to KHL if either can’t make NHL team this season.
I wonder how much of that is posturing. Would Voinov really leave? Hmm.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I love the “I’m leaving if I don’t start mentality”…if true, they’re in the wrong league, and I’m not referring to the KHL.
yeah, but don't give the rumor more power than it deserves
Voynov didn’t say these things. Otherwise it would be a quote from a journalist.
Or do we have to believe everything that some guy on twitter or a comments section says his friend who plays roller hockey with daigle said that blah blah…
Wait till this year.
I put zero stock in anything that guy says.
Anyone can say that any russian might go play in the KHL if he can’t cut it in the NHL. Voynov is here. He has not to this point been even close to being ready for the NHL. If he shows up in camp and is ready, he’ll make it. If not, not. If he is obviously not ready and he decides to go back to russia, then it’s not much of a loss, really. It’s just meaningless to say what that guy said.
Wait till this year.
“That guy”…Chesnokov or the KHL guy? I was assuming the posturing was coming from the latter.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Isn’t he also the “Frolov will decide in 10 days” guy? I wonder what’s up with that. Isn’t this day 10?
I want Fro back so badly right now, I can’t even express it. Though he’d probably go back to being the fandom pinata again because he’s not you-know-who, I wouldn’t even care.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Yes, it could be like his personal scapegoat
It will take all the punishment, so he doesn’t have to.
hilarious! i wish he looked that menacing
instead of actually like jimmy neutron
Wait till this year.
Some awesome person named Hauspaint drew these. I can’t stop giggling. Fab work.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
these are great. get him over here ASAP. or he is here already??
WELL?? ARE YOU??
Wait till this year.
I have been worried about this for a while...
But according to this Q&A in hockeysfuture.com, he wants to stay here, and is really hungry to make the NHL (but shouldn’t all prospects).
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/11582/qa_with_vyacheslav_voynov/
HF: How many years of AHL will you play before considering other variants?
VV: My goal is to play in the NHL, and I’ll do everything it takes to play there.
by Clever Kings Handle on Jul 24, 2010 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions
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