$100 Million Dollars is Actually a lot of Money
Some people seem to think that Lombardi's ego is what's stopping sweet little Ilya Kovalchuk from signing with the Kings. These people are of the opinion that Lombardi should just "man up" and pay him what he wants. Because, you know, "great players get paid to be great players." Well, this is for you. (warning: math to follow)
[clarification: as you will see in the comments, some people think maybe I don't understand the difference between $10MM in salary and $10MM in cap hit. I do. This post is based on the assumption that Kovalchuk is not wavering from his demand of $10MM per year, i.e. $10MM cap hit. Some people still think I'm overpaying Moller next year, at $1.5MM. Make it $1.1MM. It doesn't matter, as you will see.]
Kings Cap Situation 2010-11
| * Kovalchuk | — | $10,000,000 |
| Anze Kopitar | — | $6,800,000 |
| Ryan Smyth | — | $6,250,000 |
| Michal Handzus | — | $4,000,000 |
| Jarret Stoll | — | $3,600,000 |
| Justin Williams | — | $3,500,000 |
| Dustin Brown | — | $3,175,000 |
| Brayden Schenn | ($2,115,000) | $3,140,000 |
| * Brad Richardson | — | $1,800,000 |
| Scott Parse | — | $900,000 |
| Oscar Moller | ($212,500) | $875,000 |
| Kyle Clifford | ($215,000) | $870,000 |
| Wayne Simmonds | ($240,000) | $821,667 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Drew Doughty | ($2,600,000) | $3,475,000 |
| Rob Scuderi | — | $3,400,000 |
| Matt Greene | — | $2,950,000 |
| Jack Johnson | — | $1,425,000 |
| * ufa d | — | $1,250,000 |
| Jake Muzzin | ($285,000) | $900,000 |
| Davis Drewiske | — | $616,667 |
| Peter Harrold | — | $583,333 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| Jonathan Quick | — | $1,800,000 |
| Jonathan Bernier | — | $843,333 |
| BUYOUTS | ||
| Alyn McCauley | — | $666,667 |
| ROSTER SIZE | 23 | |
| SALARY CAP | $59,400,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $63,641,667 | |
| CAP SPACE | -$4,421,667 |
|
And that's just this year. That's $4.4MM OVER THE CAP. So, pick one of Handzus, Stoll, Brown or Williams to get rid of right away, dumping him for picks, two of them if you're not comfortable spending the bonus cushion provided by Brayden Schenn's bonus (ask Stan Bowman for advice). You might be able to make it work by getting rid of Brad Richardson and one of those guys from the above list. But it would be tight.
Don't bother mentioning Smyth, because no-one is taking that cap hit. Yes, that big $6MM cap hit on a guy who is 34. It's hard to move. If you think $6MM at 34 is hard to move, try $10MM at 37.
But it gets worse. Let's look at 2011-12. Why? Because Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson, Wayne Simmonds, Jonathan Bernier and Oscar Moller are all RFA and will get new contracts.
- Doughty $6MM (I really think it might be more, but this is the smallest I think it could be)
- Johnson $3MM (he will wait longer than Doughty to sign, and this will be his break-out season)
- Simmonds $3MM (because he's worth every penny)
- Bernier $2.25MM
- Moller $1.5MM (this is a nod to the people who said I was nuts to suggest OM would get $1.8MM)
With that, here's the 2011-12 roster.
| * Kovalchuk | — | $10,000,000 |
| Anze Kopitar | — | $6,800,000 |
| Ryan Smyth | — | $6,250,000 |
| Jarret Stoll | — | $3,600,000 |
| Dustin Brown | — | $3,175,000 |
| Brayden Schenn | ($2,115,000) | $3,140,000 |
| * Simmonds | — | $3,000,000 |
| * Brad Richardson | — | $1,800,000 |
| * Moller | — | $1,500,000 |
| * Trevor Lewis | — | $1,250,000 |
| Scott Parse | — | $900,000 |
| Kyle Clifford | ($215,000) | $870,000 |
| Andrei Loktionov | ($212,500) | $816,667 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| * Doughty | — | $6,000,000 |
| Rob Scuderi | — | $3,400,000 |
| * Johnson | — | $3,000,000 |
| Matt Greene | — | $2,950,000 |
| Thomas Hickey | ($500,000) | $1,316,667 |
| Jake Muzzin | ($285,000) | $900,000 |
| Davis Drewiske | — | $616,667 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| * Bernier | — | $2,250,000 |
| Jonathan Quick | — | $1,800,000 |
| CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS | ||
| ROSTER SIZE | 22 | |
| SALARY CAP | $59,400,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $65,335,000 | |
| CAP SPACE | $-5,935,000 | |
Yes, that's right. We're nearly $6MM OVER THE CAP THE FOLLOWING YEAR. Even after dumping Handzus and Williams, who were UFA. So pick another three big players to dump, maybe only two if you're willing to eat into your bonus cushion. And remember that for each player you dump for picks, you have to replace him on the roster, so dumping a $3MM player gets you a savings of around $2.2-2.4MM. Pick three of Stoll, Brown, Simmonds, Scuderi, Johnson and Greene. Replace with minimum wagers. (Oh, right, if the cap goes up next year, you can salvage one of of those guys, probably. Woot.)
So one year after signing Kovalchuk to a cap hit of $10MM, you've dumped Stoll, Greene and Williams, maybe Richardson. Williams, I think everyone can live with (but it would be nice to be able to trade him as part of a package to get someone back -- that top 4 defenseman, for example); Stoll and Greene, that's a sacrifice that requires Schenn to be ready for second line center and Teubert or Muzzin or Campbell or someone TBD to be ready to be a shut-down guy, shot-blocking machine, humorist and leader. I will also point out that these are all Lombardi hand-picked character guys. A lot goes out the door when they leave.
Alternatively, maybe you just didn't re-sign Johnson, Simmonds and Moller. Lombardi would never consider anything that would force him to lose those guys. Seriously, who in the entire league would Lombardi be willing to trade Johnson, Simmonds and Moller for? Crosby? Ovechkin? Yeah, probably. But anyone else? No.
2 recs |
25 comments
|
Comments
I get the feeling more and more that Kovy’ s priorities are in his wallet and not playing for a potential winner.
http://www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 5, 2010 1:04 AM PDT reply actions
stupid
Stupid article. Maybe it’s just me but I thought you actually had to have some knowledge about hockey to have a ‘professional’ blog (one assumes, or did before reading the blog anyway). You have 13 forwards and 8 defenseman going against the cap. I don’t know where you’re getting some of your numbers either, because capgeek lists the L.A Kings as having 17 million in remaining cap space. That’s enough to sign Kovy to a 10 mil cap hit contract, with 7 mil remaining to fill out the rest of the team, which is more than plenty. But, more importantly, who ever said Dean should sign him at 10 mil per year? The Devils can’t give him 10 per year, or anywhere close. The Flyers can’t give him 10 per year, or anywhere close. Which means if the Isles really are offering 10 mil per year, they’re offering way, way more than any of these other teams. And since Kovy hasn’t signed with any of the other teams, it means he would have signed with the Isles, or the KHL, if he was looking for that money. It’s obvious that he wants to go to either the Flyers, Kings, or even Devils, and is trying to get 8 – 8.5 from those teams. Gaborik at 7.5 per did wonders for the Rangers, a team much closer to the cap than the Kings, and Kovalchuk is a much better, much more durable player. Getting him at 8.5 per would do wonders for the Kings. Also, given how (suddenly) ambitious Kings ownership has gotten, who’s to say they wouldn’t be willing to either bury in the minors, or buy out the likes of Smyth, or J Williams?
There is a deal to be had here. If Dean can get it done, or rather if he could have gotten it done, the Kings may have won a cup this coming year. The west is wide open with Lidstrom and Rafalski aging in Detroit, and Chicago being forced to ship off half their team because of the NHL’s insipid rule about bonuses being carried over to the next year. It’s wide open, and if Dean offered a front loaded, 8-12 year deal that gave Kovy the equivalent of 8.5 mil per year, at maybe a lower cap hit than that, the Kings would be much better for it.
Take a look at this, for instance. 14 year deal that takes Kovy until he’s 41 years old…
10, 10, 10, 10, 10 , 10, 10, 10, 10, 10 (there’s his 100 mil/ 10 years), 7, 3, .5, .5.
7.9 million cap hit. If Kovy retires at age 38, the kings only have 4 million on the books over three years. If they bought him out at age 39 they’d only have to pay around 2 million to him.
And that’s overkill.
How about 10, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 8 , 7, 7, 4, .5, .5, .5,
That’s 86 mil over the first ten years (throughout the remainder of when he’ll actually be playing, the equivalent of 8.6 million per year for ten years, a great contract for Kovalchuk). But because of the last four years, the cap hit is only… 6.5 million. Less than Patrick Marleau’s supposed “home town discount” with the Sharks. That’s less than Kopitar’s!
See? Easy as pie. Kovalchuk at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit? That’s an incredible deal.
To quote Roosevelt, don’t tell me it can’t be done, jackass.
Nice to Meet You.
There is an unnecessarily ugly tone to your comments boyled. You come off as one of those guests at a hotel that yells at his kids in the lobby, gets his credit card rejected then yells at his wife, and then stomps away back to the Motel 6.
Let’s look at some of the meat in your spew…
You say, “You have 13 forwards and 8 defenseman going against the cap.” Yes, correct, that was Quisp DEFINING THE PROBLEM. In your rush to dump on Quisp you totally missed the point, which is made when he suggests an offset to the defined problem by saying, “That’s $4.4MM OVER THE CAP. So, pick two of Handzus, Stoll, Brown or Williams to get rid of right away, dumping them for picks.”
You say, “Take a look at this, for instance. 14 year deal that takes Kovy until he’s 41 years old…”
Quisp’s article is about the FACT that the supposed cap space we have now will be diminished by looming contracts for vital players like Doughty, Simmonds, Jack Johnson and Jonathan Bernier. Elsewhere, Quisp defined Kovalchuk as a “franchise killer.” Maybe in your world a 14 year deal (roflmfao) makes sense, but to me that is exactly the perfect way to kill a franchise. 14 year deal? Seriously? When you cannot even competently look at the very next season?
Your second option in the 14 year deal scenario is what really makes me laugh, though, this is priceless. “10, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 8 , 7, 7, 4, .5, .5, .5”. C’mon Dean, anybody in the world would want an aging one-dimensional sniper whose hands went away 5 years ago to be making .5 million for three years, just think of the motivational inspiration he would lend to the new kids coming up. And of course Kovalchuk would just leap at the chance to guarantee .5 million a year, skating for less than the entry-level contract amount. Definitely!
To quote Roosevelt (Franklin)-There are as many opinions as there are experts.
To quote Roosevelt (Theodore)- I think there is only one quality worse than hardness of heart and that is softness of head.
End Corporate Personhood.
by Player-X on Jul 5, 2010 6:40 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Excellent reply. Wasted, but excellent. Rec'd
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
Insipid means flavorless.
The rest I will respond to after I take my kid to camp. I appreciate the thought you put into your comment.
Wait till this year.
Why bother dignifying his “post” with a reply? You’ve already said it all — and very well I think — in your column. Guys like Kovalchuk are team killers. Note how well the Devils did with him in his brief stint there. Why Lou wants him back I cannot fathom. Bet Parise, Langenbrunner and co. don’t.
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
Let's take your points one-by-one
(first, to everyone else, dignify shmignify, he’s got his opinion, he’s entitled to it; I’m happy to dignify.)
I thought you actually had to have some knowledge about hockey to have
a ‘professional’ blog.
Not at all. Also, I’m amused by your use of the word "professional."
You have 13 forwards and 8 defenseman going against the cap.
One of the defensemen is a forward/defenseman hybrid who frequently plays
forward these days. The Kings typically carry 21 skaters on their active roster.
I don’t know where you’re getting some of your numbers either, because
capgeek lists the L.A Kings as having 17 million in remaining cap space.
The numbers from CapGeek. You also have to include the rest of the team, however,
which means Richardson’s and Lewis’s RFA contract, promoting a defenseman
from the prospect pool (I picked Muzzin but you can pick Hickey or Voynov if
you want – though they cost more). Schenn and Clifford will likely make the
team. Bernier will all but certainly replace Ersberg. That, plus the Kovalchuk cap
hit which has been reported in the press as his demand, is more than $17MM.
That’s enough to sign Kovy to a 10 mil cap hit contract, with 7 mil remaining to fill
out the rest of the team, which is more than plenty.
No, see above. Or look at the original post, which does the adding for you.
But, more importantly, who ever said Dean should sign him at 10 mil per year?
Nobody said "should." I said "should not." $10MM cap hit is Kovalchuk’s widely
reported demand.
The Devils can’t give him 10 per year, or anywhere close.
They can, of course, because clubs are allowed an extra 10% of upper limit
during the summer and Lamoriello has said that he will dump salary to make room. I
find it hard to believe he will pay that much. But he can.
Which means if the Isles really are offering 10 mil per year, they’re offering way,
way more than any of these other teams.
No kidding.
And since Kovy hasn’t signed with any of the other teams, it means he would
have signed with the Isles, or the KHL, if he was looking for that money.
That doesn’t follow.
It’s obvious that he wants to go to either the Flyers, Kings, or even Devils, and is
trying to get 8 – 8.5 from those teams.
Kovalchuk hasn’t said anything about who he wants to play for, other than "a
contender." Flyers don’t have cap space.
Gaborik at 7.5 per did wonders for the Rangers, a team much closer to the cap
than the Kings, and Kovalchuk is a much better, much more durable player.
Getting him at 8.5 per would do wonders for the Kings.
Possibly true. But Kovalchuk’s salary demand is purportedly $10MM CAP HIT.
Not $8.5MM. The Gaborik thing is a non-sequitur. Brown at $3MM+ did wonders
for the Kings, too. So what?
Also, given how (suddenly) ambitious Kings ownership has gotten, who’s to say
they wouldn’t be willing to either bury in the minors, or buy out the likes of Smyth,
or J Williams?
Why would Lombardi have to do that to anyone, since according to you there’s plenty of cap room? Another thought: Lombardi would never bury Ryan Smyth in the minors, or buy him out, out of respect alone. The guy waived his NTC to come here. And, um, we like him. Williams? Yes, he was one of the players I said would have to be moved. Lots of people would have to be moved or otherwise lost. That’s the point.
There is a deal to be had here. If Dean can get it done, or rather if he could have gotten it done, the Kings may have won a cup this coming year.
I agree there’s a reasonable offer to make to Kovalchuk and that Kovalchuk at that (reasonable) price is a good thing. The point is, Kovalchuk’s line in the sand is not reasonable.
The west is wide open with Lidstrom and Rafalski aging in Detroit, and Chicago being forced to ship off half their team …
Chicago was forced to ship off half their team because Tallon signed Campbell and Huet to giant albatross contracts. The bonus cushion penalty was the least of their problems.
because of the NHL’s insipid rule about bonuses being carried over to the next year.
I don’t think you understand the rule. But that’s fine. Call it flavorless if you like.
if Dean offered a front loaded, 8-12 year deal that gave Kovy the equivalent of 8.5 mil per year, at maybe a
lower cap hit than that, the Kings would be much better for it.
Two things. (1) You’re negotiating with yourself. (2) Not only do I agree with you, but I have proposed that very thing (with cap hits ranging from $7MM to $8MM) about a dozen times. This tells me you have not done your homework.
Take a look at this, for instance. 14 year deal that takes Kovy until he’s 41 years old…
10, 10, 10, 10, 10 , 10, 10, 10, 10, 10 (there’s his 100 mil/ 10 years), 7, 3, .5, .5.
7.9 million cap hit.
Yes. No kidding. I have proposed many MANY (many) versions of this. The cap hit can be lowered by extending the term. BUT THAT’S NOT WHERE WE ARE NOW. The point is, Kovalchuk doesn’t want $10MM for several years and then still be under contract for less. He wants $10MM per year average.
How about 10, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 8 , 7, 7, 4, .5, .5, .5 [blah blah blah cap hit of] 6.5 million. Less than Patrick Marleau’s supposed "home town discount" with the Sharks. That’s less than Kopitar’s! See? Easy as pie. Kovalchuk at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit? That’s an incredible deal.
Why, yes, it is! Go back into the archives to find where I mapped out the $6MM cap hit ten year deal. It would be an incredible deal, but for the fact that Kovalchuk wants a $10MM CAP HIT. (until we are informed otherwise, we have to assume that the confirmed reports of his salary demands are true; this of course may change any second now.)
But it’s pointless for you to negotiate with yourself in an alternate reality with its own rules that you yourself are cherry-picking to make your point, which is essentially that if only Lombardi would listen to you and do what, by the way, he has almost certainly already done — make an offer that is front loaded with $10MM or more in the first years tapering down to nothing in the final years with a cap hit in the $7-8MM ranger — that then Kovalchuk would accept it despite the fact that he has already passed on it.
To quote Roosevelt, don’t tell me it can’t be done, jackass.
To quote Woody Allen, be fruitful and multiply. But not in those words.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Jul 5, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Real Point or Second Guessing?
Until this mess it seemed everyone was happy, anticipating incremental progress towards ultimately developing a system producing a string of contenders.
Realizing the fudge factors, if the numbers were this close was it worth (or smart) passing on the FA market in pursuit of this (or most) marque players and rocking the development process…as it seems some trades will be needed just to match last years success.
Perhaps this will be the wake up call needed in these post “Loweist” days of the NHL.
If the Islanders I suppose the fun part will be aging with the team. Arthritis, aching muscles, flow control and locker assignments based upon senility rather then seniority. And, AARP memberships can include a free Islander’s sun cap.
Yeah, I'd agree that some minds have been clouded
I know you and I both read the threads at LAK Insider, and it does seem that some folks have forgotten that the Kings will be a pretty good team next year even without Kovalchuk.
As long as they can fill Frolov’s spot (either with him or someone else) and find a D equal to or better than O’Donnell (not impossible by any stretch of the imagination), the Kings will be a better team than they were this past season. Bernier will swap in for Ersberg, and the young core guys should be physically stronger and a a year more experienced just as a matter of course. And I’m not even counting on unproven prospects (unless you count Bernier as such) to step in and make a huge impact.
All our trials, soon be over
Kovy signs later today.
And the Kings can put all that crap behind them and get on with things that are real.
You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.
January 11, 1976
for some reason the link didn’t attach<a http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/nhlblog/kovalchuk_expected_to_sign_with_6bXr165ziolHuq8eWQQKLO" >
FYI – anything written in the New York Post should be taken with a grain of salt.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
Just a thought -
I’m not of the opinion that Kovalchuk rates the kind of money he’s demanding. The $8M+ cap hit usually means a player that isn’t just a game-changer, but a team-changer. Only three guys in the NHL rate that kind of pay – Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin. All three of these guys, when they came in, immediately changed the face of their clubs. They are truly the faces of their franchise, able to pick up a flagging team and carry it on their backs seemingly single-handed. These are once-in-a-generation talents, players that are untouchable.
Kovalchuk isn’t that level of player. He can change an individual game now and then, and every defender needs to know where he is whenever he’s on the ice, but he doesn’t backcheck and he doesn’t sacrifice himself. Atlanta actually did pretty well for themselves after he left, scoring by committee. Their defense is up and coming, and all hail Evander Kane for dropping Matt Cooke :) If they got decent goaltending, they had a chance to win on any given night. And someone tell me how much of a difference Kovalchuk made for the Devils :) He’s not the guy who can take a team on his back and change them just by being there like Ovechkin or Crosby does.
A closer and fairer comparable for Kovalchuk would be more in the range of an Alexander Semin, a Zach Parise, or a Marian Gaborik. Can change an individual game, but doesn’t by himself change or define a team.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by 







