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Around SBN: SB Nation MMA Rankings for August 2010

$100 Million Dollars is Actually a lot of Money

Some people seem to think that Lombardi's ego is what's stopping sweet little Ilya Kovalchuk from signing with the Kings. These people are of the opinion that Lombardi should just "man up" and pay him what he wants. Because, you know, "great players get paid to be great players." Well, this is for you. (warning: math to follow)

[clarification: as you will see in the comments, some people think maybe I don't understand the difference between $10MM in salary and $10MM in cap hit. I do. This post is based on the assumption that Kovalchuk is not wavering from his demand of $10MM per year, i.e. $10MM cap hit. Some people still think I'm overpaying Moller next year, at $1.5MM. Make it $1.1MM. It doesn't matter, as you will see.]

Kings Cap Situation 2010-11

* Kovalchuk $10,000,000
Anze Kopitar $6,800,000
Ryan Smyth $6,250,000
Michal Handzus $4,000,000
Jarret Stoll $3,600,000
Justin Williams $3,500,000
Dustin Brown $3,175,000
Brayden Schenn ($2,115,000) $3,140,000
* Brad Richardson $1,800,000
Scott Parse $900,000
Oscar Moller ($212,500) $875,000
Kyle Clifford ($215,000) $870,000
Wayne Simmonds ($240,000) $821,667
DEFENSEMEN
Drew Doughty ($2,600,000) $3,475,000
Rob Scuderi $3,400,000
Matt Greene $2,950,000
Jack Johnson $1,425,000
* ufa d $1,250,000
Jake Muzzin ($285,000) $900,000
Davis Drewiske $616,667
Peter Harrold $583,333
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Quick $1,800,000
Jonathan Bernier $843,333
BUYOUTS
Alyn McCauley $666,667
ROSTER SIZE 23
SALARY CAP $59,400,000
PAYROLL $63,641,667


CAP SPACE -$4,421,667

 

And that's just this year. That's $4.4MM OVER THE CAP. So, pick one of Handzus, Stoll, Brown or Williams to get rid of right away, dumping him for picks, two of them if you're not comfortable spending the bonus cushion provided by Brayden Schenn's bonus (ask Stan Bowman for advice). You might be able to make it work by getting rid of Brad Richardson and one of those guys from the above list. But it would be tight.

Don't bother mentioning Smyth, because no-one is taking that cap hit. Yes, that big $6MM cap hit on a guy who is 34. It's hard to move. If you think $6MM at 34 is hard to move, try $10MM at 37.

But it gets worse. Let's look at 2011-12. Why? Because Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson, Wayne Simmonds, Jonathan Bernier and Oscar Moller are all RFA and will get new contracts.

  • Doughty $6MM (I really think it might be more, but this is the smallest I think it could be)
  • Johnson $3MM (he will wait longer than Doughty to sign, and this will be his break-out season)
  • Simmonds $3MM (because he's worth every penny)
  • Bernier $2.25MM 
  • Moller $1.5MM (this is a nod to the people who said I was nuts to suggest OM would get $1.8MM)

With that, here's the 2011-12 roster.

* Kovalchuk $10,000,000
Anze Kopitar $6,800,000
Ryan Smyth $6,250,000
Jarret Stoll $3,600,000
Dustin Brown $3,175,000
Brayden Schenn ($2,115,000) $3,140,000
* Simmonds $3,000,000
* Brad Richardson $1,800,000
* Moller $1,500,000
* Trevor Lewis $1,250,000
Scott Parse $900,000
Kyle Clifford ($215,000) $870,000
Andrei Loktionov ($212,500) $816,667
DEFENSEMEN
* Doughty $6,000,000
Rob Scuderi $3,400,000
* Johnson $3,000,000
Matt Greene $2,950,000
Thomas Hickey ($500,000) $1,316,667
Jake Muzzin ($285,000) $900,000
Davis Drewiske $616,667
GOALTENDERS
* Bernier $2,250,000
Jonathan Quick $1,800,000
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER SIZE 22
SALARY CAP $59,400,000
PAYROLL $65,335,000
CAP SPACE $-5,935,000

 

Yes, that's right. We're nearly $6MM OVER THE CAP THE FOLLOWING YEAR. Even after dumping Handzus and Williams, who were UFA. So pick another three big players to dump, maybe only two if you're willing to eat into your bonus cushion. And remember that for each player you dump for picks, you have to replace him on the roster, so dumping a $3MM player gets you a savings of around $2.2-2.4MM. Pick three of Stoll, Brown, Simmonds, Scuderi, Johnson and Greene. Replace with minimum wagers. (Oh, right, if the cap goes up next year, you can salvage one of of those guys, probably. Woot.)

So one year after signing Kovalchuk to a cap hit of $10MM, you've dumped Stoll, Greene and Williams, maybe Richardson. Williams, I think everyone can live with (but it would be nice to be able to trade him as part of a package to get someone back -- that top 4 defenseman, for example); Stoll and Greene, that's a sacrifice that requires Schenn to be ready for second line center and Teubert or Muzzin or Campbell or someone TBD to be ready to be a shut-down guy, shot-blocking machine, humorist and leader. I will also point out that these are all Lombardi hand-picked character guys. A lot goes out the door when they leave.

Alternatively, maybe you just didn't re-sign Johnson, Simmonds and Moller. Lombardi would never consider anything that would force him to lose those guys. Seriously, who in the entire league would Lombardi be willing to trade Johnson, Simmonds and Moller for? Crosby? Ovechkin? Yeah, probably. But anyone else? No.

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I get the feeling more and more that Kovy’ s priorities are in his wallet and not playing for a potential winner.

http://www.prosportsblogging.com

by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 5, 2010 1:04 AM PDT reply actions  

This.

You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jul 5, 2010 8:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

stupid

Stupid article. Maybe it’s just me but I thought you actually had to have some knowledge about hockey to have a ‘professional’ blog (one assumes, or did before reading the blog anyway). You have 13 forwards and 8 defenseman going against the cap. I don’t know where you’re getting some of your numbers either, because capgeek lists the L.A Kings as having 17 million in remaining cap space. That’s enough to sign Kovy to a 10 mil cap hit contract, with 7 mil remaining to fill out the rest of the team, which is more than plenty. But, more importantly, who ever said Dean should sign him at 10 mil per year? The Devils can’t give him 10 per year, or anywhere close. The Flyers can’t give him 10 per year, or anywhere close. Which means if the Isles really are offering 10 mil per year, they’re offering way, way more than any of these other teams. And since Kovy hasn’t signed with any of the other teams, it means he would have signed with the Isles, or the KHL, if he was looking for that money. It’s obvious that he wants to go to either the Flyers, Kings, or even Devils, and is trying to get 8 – 8.5 from those teams. Gaborik at 7.5 per did wonders for the Rangers, a team much closer to the cap than the Kings, and Kovalchuk is a much better, much more durable player. Getting him at 8.5 per would do wonders for the Kings. Also, given how (suddenly) ambitious Kings ownership has gotten, who’s to say they wouldn’t be willing to either bury in the minors, or buy out the likes of Smyth, or J Williams?

There is a deal to be had here. If Dean can get it done, or rather if he could have gotten it done, the Kings may have won a cup this coming year. The west is wide open with Lidstrom and Rafalski aging in Detroit, and Chicago being forced to ship off half their team because of the NHL’s insipid rule about bonuses being carried over to the next year. It’s wide open, and if Dean offered a front loaded, 8-12 year deal that gave Kovy the equivalent of 8.5 mil per year, at maybe a lower cap hit than that, the Kings would be much better for it.

Take a look at this, for instance. 14 year deal that takes Kovy until he’s 41 years old…

10, 10, 10, 10, 10 , 10, 10, 10, 10, 10 (there’s his 100 mil/ 10 years), 7, 3, .5, .5.

7.9 million cap hit. If Kovy retires at age 38, the kings only have 4 million on the books over three years. If they bought him out at age 39 they’d only have to pay around 2 million to him.

And that’s overkill.

How about 10, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 8 , 7, 7, 4, .5, .5, .5,

That’s 86 mil over the first ten years (throughout the remainder of when he’ll actually be playing, the equivalent of 8.6 million per year for ten years, a great contract for Kovalchuk). But because of the last four years, the cap hit is only… 6.5 million. Less than Patrick Marleau’s supposed “home town discount” with the Sharks. That’s less than Kopitar’s!

See? Easy as pie. Kovalchuk at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit? That’s an incredible deal.

To quote Roosevelt, don’t tell me it can’t be done, jackass.

by boyledshark22 on Jul 5, 2010 2:35 AM PDT reply actions  

I completely agree

with Player-X, not boyledshark.

by kiwi93 on Jul 5, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Excellent reply. Wasted, but excellent. Rec'd

You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jul 5, 2010 8:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Insipid means flavorless.

The rest I will respond to after I take my kid to camp. I appreciate the thought you put into your comment.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Jul 5, 2010 7:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Why bother dignifying his “post” with a reply? You’ve already said it all — and very well I think — in your column. Guys like Kovalchuk are team killers. Note how well the Devils did with him in his brief stint there. Why Lou wants him back I cannot fathom. Bet Parise, Langenbrunner and co. don’t.

You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jul 5, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ditto. Dignifying this one would be a mistake, especially considering that ‘Tony’ here did a bang up job already. Anybody throwing insults around on these boards should be ignored and potentially dropped.

Besides, you gave fair warning that there would be math involved…

by JZarris on Jul 5, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

I didn’t know you killed trolls in your spare time Quisp…..

by superfan#99 on Jul 5, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Real Point or Second Guessing?

Until this mess it seemed everyone was happy, anticipating incremental progress towards ultimately developing a system producing a string of contenders.

Realizing the fudge factors, if the numbers were this close was it worth (or smart) passing on the FA market in pursuit of this (or most) marque players and rocking the development process…as it seems some trades will be needed just to match last years success.

Perhaps this will be the wake up call needed in these post “Loweist” days of the NHL.

If the Islanders I suppose the fun part will be aging with the team. Arthritis, aching muscles, flow control and locker assignments based upon senility rather then seniority. And, AARP memberships can include a free Islander’s sun cap.

by USHA#17 on Jul 5, 2010 7:56 AM PDT reply actions  

lmao!

End Corporate Personhood.

by Player-X on Jul 5, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I'd agree that some minds have been clouded

I know you and I both read the threads at LAK Insider, and it does seem that some folks have forgotten that the Kings will be a pretty good team next year even without Kovalchuk.

As long as they can fill Frolov’s spot (either with him or someone else) and find a D equal to or better than O’Donnell (not impossible by any stretch of the imagination), the Kings will be a better team than they were this past season. Bernier will swap in for Ersberg, and the young core guys should be physically stronger and a a year more experienced just as a matter of course. And I’m not even counting on unproven prospects (unless you count Bernier as such) to step in and make a huge impact.

by DougX on Jul 5, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

All our trials, soon be over

Kovy signs later today.
And the Kings can put all that crap behind them and get on with things that are real.

You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jul 5, 2010 9:13 AM PDT reply actions  

Thank you for that. And amen.

In Dinglebarn We Trust

by Niesy on Jul 5, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Judgement Day is upon us today

here is what the New York Post have posted up on their website

by The Ram on Jul 5, 2010 10:50 AM PDT reply actions  

FYI – anything written in the New York Post should be taken with a grain of salt.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jul 5, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

FYI – anything written in the New York Post should be taken with a grain whole lot of salt.

You're living in a parallel universe. Do not attempt angle parking.

January 11, 1976

by TopShelfTony on Jul 5, 2010 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just a thought -

I’m not of the opinion that Kovalchuk rates the kind of money he’s demanding. The $8M+ cap hit usually means a player that isn’t just a game-changer, but a team-changer. Only three guys in the NHL rate that kind of pay – Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin. All three of these guys, when they came in, immediately changed the face of their clubs. They are truly the faces of their franchise, able to pick up a flagging team and carry it on their backs seemingly single-handed. These are once-in-a-generation talents, players that are untouchable.

Kovalchuk isn’t that level of player. He can change an individual game now and then, and every defender needs to know where he is whenever he’s on the ice, but he doesn’t backcheck and he doesn’t sacrifice himself. Atlanta actually did pretty well for themselves after he left, scoring by committee. Their defense is up and coming, and all hail Evander Kane for dropping Matt Cooke :) If they got decent goaltending, they had a chance to win on any given night. And someone tell me how much of a difference Kovalchuk made for the Devils :) He’s not the guy who can take a team on his back and change them just by being there like Ovechkin or Crosby does.

A closer and fairer comparable for Kovalchuk would be more in the range of an Alexander Semin, a Zach Parise, or a Marian Gaborik. Can change an individual game, but doesn’t by himself change or define a team.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jul 5, 2010 10:53 AM PDT reply actions  

All hail Evander Kane, indeed! That was so sweet…

by JZarris on Jul 5, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

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