New Jersey's Cap Situation After the Kovalcalypse
by Quisp on Jul 7, 2010 11:39 PM PDT
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PrintSince the New York Post insists on printing these things, I guess I should pretend to take them seriously. The latest is that Lou Lamoriello has offered Ilya Kovalchuk the $10MM/yr he's looking for. So let's review:
- New Jersey has $4-5MM in cap space.
- In the summer you get an extra 10% of the upper limit. That's $5.94MM.
- But you have to get back down below the cap by the end of training camp.
- If the Devils use their remaining cap space and their smallish bonus cushion and all of the 10% overage, they've got about $10MM in cap hit that they can absorb.
- After which they would have to go on a salary dumping frenzy, to the tune of at least $7MM net. That's the $5.94MM overage they have to give back, plus at minimum $500K for each player they dump (since they have to replace said dumpee with the cheapest possible replacement).
So let's go to Cap Geek and see what the Devilchuks look like:
(I promoted the cheapest guys I could find to fill out a roster of 12 forwards, 7 defensemen and 2 goalies; your results may vary, but they won't have a lower cap hit.)
| 2010-11 New Jersey Devils | ||
| PLAYER | BONUS | CAP HIT |
|---|---|---|
| FORWARDS | ||
| * Ilya Kovalchuk | — | $10,000,000 |
| Patrik Elias | — | $6,000,000 |
| Brian Rolston | — | $5,062,500 |
| Jason Arnott | — | $4,500,000 |
| Travis Zajac | — | $3,887,500 |
| Dainius Zubrus | — | $3,400,000 |
| Zach Parise | — | $3,125,000 |
| Jamie Langenbrunner | — | $2,800,000 |
| David Clarkson | — | $2,666,667 |
| Vladimir Zharkov | ($240,000) | $850,000 |
| Jean-Sebastien Berube | — | $531,667 |
| P-L Letourneau-Leblond | — | $525,000 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Anton Volchenkov | — | $4,250,000 |
| Henrik Tallinder | — | $3,375,000 |
| Colin White | — | $3,000,000 |
| Bryce Salvador | — | $2,900,000 |
| Andy Greene | — | $737,500 |
| Anssi Salmela | — | $612,500 |
| Dan Kelly | — | $583,333 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| Martin Brodeur | — | $5,200,000 |
| Johan Hedberg | ($500,000) | $1,500,000 |
| BUYOUTS | ||
| Jay Pandolfo | — | $833,333 |
| Andrew Peters | — | $166,667 |
| LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS | ||
| NONE | ||
| CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS | ||
| ROSTER SIZE | 21 | |
| SALARY CAP | $59,400,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $66,506,667 | |
| BONUSES | $740,000 | |
| CAP SPACE | $-6,366,667 | |
Okay, so they're $6.4MM over, $7.1MM over if you exclude the bonus cushion, but let's go with the more generous figure. How to shed $6.4MM in salary...hmm...okay. I'm just going to look at them coldly, as numbers. To see what adds up.
- Brodeur, Elias, Rolston, Arnott, Langenbrunner, Volchenkov, White and Hedberg all have NTC/NMCs. And I don't see why any of them would want to willingly leave the Devilchuks. So cross them off.
- Zajac ($3.9), Tallinder ($3.4), Zubrus ($3.4), Parise ($3.125), Salvador ($2.9), Clarkson ($2.7), those are the candidates. The rest don't make enough to make a difference.
- Tallinder just signed last week, so it would be cruel and/or weird to deal him, but stranger things have happened (I suppose; I can't think of any, but I'm sure at some point...).
- If you trade the two most expensive guys away for picks, you subtract Zajac and Tallinder's $7.3MM, and add two minimum wage players to take their places. Let's see what that gets you...back to Cap Geek...survey says:
Nope. Still $156K over, using all of your bonus cushion ($740K). So even dumping the two most expensive guys, you're still going to have to move someone else. Someone who makes at least $800K. You could dump Greene or Zharkov, and you would be over the cap ceiling by just a little less than your total bonus cushion. Which is insanely tight. But at least then you wouldn't be in circumvention of the CBA. So that's one option:
Option #1: trade Zajac and Tallinder for picks, get rid of Greene or Zharkov however you want (I chose Zharkov), use all of bonus cushion, enjoy your $98K in cap space and a roster that includes eight minimum wage employees and only 12 forwards so I hope no one gets hurt. And the team looks like this:
| * Ilya Kovalchuk | — | $10,000,000 |
| Patrik Elias | — | $6,000,000 |
| Brian Rolston | — | $5,062,500 |
| Jason Arnott | — | $4,500,000 |
| Dainius Zubrus | — | $3,400,000 |
| Zach Parise | — | $3,125,000 |
| Jamie Langenbrunner | — | $2,800,000 |
| David Clarkson | — | $2,666,667 |
| Michael Swift | — | $541,667 |
| Jean-Sebastien Berube | — | $531,667 |
| P-L Letourneau-Leblond | — | $525,000 |
| Nathan Perkovich | — | $515,000 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||
| Anton Volchenkov | — | $4,250,000 |
| Colin White | — | $3,000,000 |
| Bryce Salvador | — | $2,900,000 |
| Andy Greene | — | $737,500 |
| Harry Young | — | $536,667 |
| Matthew Taormina | — | $510,000 |
| Rob Davison | — | $500,000 |
| GOALTENDERS | ||
| Martin Brodeur | — | $5,200,000 |
| Johan Hedberg | ($500,000) | $1,500,000 |
| BUYOUTS | ||
| Jay Pandolfo | — | $833,333 |
| Andrew Peters | — | $166,667 |
| LOST VIA REENTRY WAIVERS | ||
| NONE | ||
| CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS | ||
| ROSTER SIZE | 21 | |
| SALARY CAP | $59,400,000 | |
| PAYROLL | $59,801,667 | |
| BONUSES | $500,000 | |
| CAP SPACE | $98,333 | |
I think that looks terrible. Plus, how stupid would it be to sign Tallinder and trade him for picks in the same summer? Let's see if there's another way.
How about getting rid of Salvador and Clarkson? They're cheaper, so that's a problem. But they're also not as good. So, trade those two for picks. Savings, $5.6MM. But you have to replace them with two cheap bodies. So that's really only a savings of $4.5MM. Another $1.9MM to go (which means $2.5MM when you figure in the minimum wage replacement). Anyone make $2.4MM? No. So that's not so good. Okay, it's Zubrus, I guess. $3.4MM. So let's go back to Cap Geek:
Okay, that gives you $260K in cap space. Call it Option #2.
Option #2: trade Zubrus, Salvador and Clarkson for picks and/or prospects, enjoy your $260K in cap space and a roster that includes eight minimum wage employees and only 12 forwards so I hope no one gets hurt. I can't tell if that's better or worse than #1.
And then there's
Option #3: Try to talk one of the NTC guys to agree to take the bullet.
Any other ideas? Does this sound like a good plan? Eight or nine guys making $500K-800K?
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Hmm
Send the $$ to to minors, and think about it later.
by Jove on Jul 8, 2010 12:05 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Dunno about that
I don’t see anyone they could stash in the minors without it being a real slap in the face. I don’t see any Huets on their roster.
I have no idea
except that possibly they could talk Kovy into taking only a contract with a 9 million cap hit and have a little relief there. I still don’t think the Kings are totally out of it just like they weren’t last time. It’s just more of the same game with the Kings saying publicly we don’t HAVE to get you and ruin our young core so either take a lower cap hit and tons of money or go somewhere else. I thought one of the most interesting parts of Leiweke’s quote was “its not about the cash, its about the cap” meaning we will pay you a ridiculous amount of money as long as we make the contract long enough to lower the cap hit. If he wants to play with the Kings or Devils I just think he has to come down on his cap demands if not his money demands
Zubrus and Salvador are the trade candidates for shedding salary, Lou would be more than happy to take some bad, minor-league-stashables in return for the help. The Post is a piece of garbage paper that no one really believes. Sure they get something right on occassion but if you toss enough crap at a wall…
I think what they said was that he was offered his $100M (which I doubt) but didn’t offer terms. It may well have been a deal that would take him till he was 39 or 40, making the hit a little more than $8M/year, and making it such that, while damn close, Zubie and Salvs space would be enough.
Your assumptions
I don’t take the Post seriously at all, and the one thing that is a truism about Lamoreillo, is that nothing leaks from negotiations…….. However, I think the tweet said 100M (lifetime), not 10M/10yrs. So your assumption of Kovy taking a 10M cap hit per year is off. For a 27 year old, lifetime could be 13 years so that is about a 7.7M hit – which is about where he should be, no?
they're not MY assumptions though
it said the 100MM he was looking for. he’s not looking for 100MM. he’s looking for 10MM/yr.
just saying 100MM is gibberish, as you point out. if lou was offering 100MM, that in and of itself would not be persuasive.
Wait till this year.
He doesn’t believe the Post, he’s just demonstrating how ridiculous it would be.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
No way that Lou trades Zajac for anyone to fit in Kovy. I would look to Zubrus, Salvador, and White if he waives his NTC to St. Louis for picks and one player. No way in hell LL trades Zajac the teams best center and Tallinder he just signed to take over Martin’s role I guess.
Piece by piece we are slowly turning into the 2000 Devils team, anyone up for the A-Line: The Sequel?
by RolliePollieKovy on Jul 8, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
The Blues don't need defensemen...
… especially not a pair of lower-pairing guys with a collective near-$6MM price tag.
They’ve got plenty of underachieving forwards on the roster already, and most of them are cheaper than Zubrus.
That salary would have to be shed somewhere else. The Devils don’t have anything they’d be willing to trade that would help St. Louis in its rebuilding efforts.
Just a thougt: Rolston, Arnott, Zubrus and Clarkson are overpaid. Langenbrunner and Parise are underpaid. And one another at least: under salary cap no team can afford a 10MM guy which is actually wrong, ’cause without big names the league quickly will become a drag to watch.
Do we know if it's the same guy athe Post writing these "stories"?
Sounds like somebody was promised a payday by Grossman to help bid up the player. Grossman seems rather desperate or dull to think that he can play games with two of the savviest GMs in the league.
by 88fingerslukee on Jul 8, 2010 11:10 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
I covered this in a fanpost on ILWT
http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2010/7/6/1554731/kovalchuk-math-and-irrational
Essentially, If Kovalchuk takes 8m per, the Devils could sign him if they give away Zubrus and Salvador (the only two players who are tradeable, making more than 1 million, recently acquired/signed and not named Zajac or Parise) and filled out the roster with players making less that 1m per. But the number are very tight, and make lots of assumptions.
Zubrus
Which team will want to help out NJ by paying this perrenial underachiever who has never scored more than 24 games in a season $3.4 million annually until the 2012-2013 season?
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 8, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Such as?
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 8, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
If you read my post, you would know that I used the word “magician” when talking about a Lou Lamoriello that could make this happen.
Sorry, I didn’t venture over to ILWT to study the diction of the fanpost. In your comment above, you describe Dairius as “tradeable.” I counter that his underachieving results and overpriced contract makes Zubrus very much untradeable. But if I understand your most recent comment correctly, you are saying that Dairius Zubrus is actually tradeable*
*tradeable only if your GM is one who practices magic or sorcery
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 8, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
tallinder
could be wrong, but isn’t there something in the cba that prevents trading a just-signed ufa?
This from a man who thinks the plural of goose is sheep.
Quisp… I just have to say that your coverage of Kovy-Gate has been superb.
by ChrisKontos on Jul 8, 2010 1:18 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
NTC
Trade Elias and Salvador plus a prospect or pick to your kings for Johnson and Loktionov. Everybody wins! :D
Holy facepalm
All the world’s Frankincense and all the world’s Myrrh would not come even close to covering up the amount of stink in that proposed trade…
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jul 8, 2010 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Why is no one thinking rolston
This is by far lou’s most nestalgic move paying an ex devil way to much to get him back. Arnott has yet to prove if he makes to much. Zubrus is not a scorer but his big body and good forecheck open doors for elias and I am guessing Arnott. I like the idea of that line. Honestly I don’t see where kovy fits in to devils hockey. In lou I trust and I see the need to win in the next say two years with Marty, but Paraise is just as good he just is not as pretty. I say Rolston takes a pay cut to say one mil (can’t trade him anyway no one will pay him what lou is) and you offer Kovy 7. You cant pay him what he wants and keep Jamie and Zach next year when they become free agents and they are the heart of the team.
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