I Don't See a Problem for the Devils Signing Kovy This Year and Parise Next Year
by Quisp on Aug 10, 2010 7:05 PM PDT
in Capmania, Capaphobia, Capaphilia, Capnesia
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PrintPeople have said they won't be able to keep Zach Parise if they sign Ilya Kovalchuk, but I don't see that at all. I'm not an expert on the ins-and-outs of the Devils' roster -- who must stay, who can be dealt, who must be re-signed; all that stuff that a team's fans know better than outsiders -- but just looking at the numbers for the next two years, they can:
- Sign Kovalchuk with a $7.5MM cap hit and get under the cap by dumping one big contract (Travis Zajac?).
- Sign Parise with a cap hit of $7MM (starting 2011-2012) and get under the cap for 2011-12 simply by letting Jamie Langenbrunner and Jason Arnott (both UFAs) walk. They might have to do some minor shuffling (e.g. to get more $600K contracts in there to replace some $900K ones). But that's not too shabby.
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I'll believe that IK comes into the fold...
…When he and his Agent go in front of cameras and microphones and say publically that they will take less money (less than $102 MM) for the good of the team.
Otherwise, I don’t see the Cap hit getting underneath $8MM/yr. AND passing NHL muster. If IK insists on 11.5MM/yr. x5 years anywhere during the contract, they will not get underneath $8MM/yr. and still beat the Kings offer (another IK ego benchmark)…
Quispie, show me the money.
Spread out the years.
Tell me how they will sell it to IK and his Agent…
A Possible Contract Scenario
Not Quisp (he’s a busy guy) but I can propose a rough estimate…
7.5
7.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
8.5
7
5
4
2.5
2.5
1.5
1.5
= 7 mil cap hit
To Kovi: “Kovi, you still get the league maximum for 5 years plus now you’re making $105 million in only 15 years.”
To NHL: “Contract is only 15 years until Kovi is just 41 years old. 12 million over last 5 years is pretty good for a player 37-41 years old.”
I'd also try to avoid dropping the last years that low
Working with a 13 year term, to take him to age 40, I got $100MM/13yrs/$7.692MM cap hit. It’s only $2MM less than the proposed contract, it’s not a ridiculous tail-off, he gets near-max for the first four years of the contract and still top money for the next six, with the last three being at what I consider low star level. I’m only saving about $300k cap space compared to Quisp’s proposal, but the tail’s less severe. I also think that any NMC would have to extend over the entire contract, rather than the NMC/NTC split NJ attempted.
2010 11.5
2011 11.5
2012 11.5
2013 11.5
2014 8
2015 8
2016 8
2017 6
2018 6
2019 6
2020 4
2021 4
2022 4
Honor is no substitute for victory.
$104MM/13yrs/$8MM cap hit
2010 11.8
2011 11.8
2012 11.8
2013 10
2014 10
2015 10
2016 8
2017 8
2018 7.6
2019 6
2020 4
2021 3
2022 2
Takes him to age 40. (like the Kings offer.) Gets to be the highest paid player in the league for 6 years, league maximum salary for the first three years. Then a nice gentle taper down to a perfectly respectable $23MM in the last five years, ending at $2MM.
I think a 13 year term is crucial, as is keeping the last five years of the contract above $1MM at the absolute lowest.
The dollar amount is $2MM MORE than the rejected contract, so that’s an upgrade.
But he doesn’t get his $10MM for 10 years. And Lou doesn’t get his affordable cap hit. So it remains to be seen if either party is interested in this sort of compromise.
Wait till this year.
$8 million would be rough for the Devils
Most NJ fans have them moving Salvador and Zubrus, but that still leaves them with no wiggle room with only a 22 man roster:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Zach Parise ($3.125m) / Travis Zajac ($3.887m) / Patrik Elias ($6.000m)
Ilya Kovalchuk ($8.000m) / Jason Arnott ($4.500m) / Brian Rolston ($5.062m)
Jamie Langenbrunner ($2.800m) / David Clarkson ($2.666m) / Vladimir Zharkov ($0.850m)
Rod Pelley ($0.550m) / P-L Letourneau-Leblond ($0.525m) / Kevin Cormier ($0.500m)
/ / Brad Mills ($0.505m)
DEFENSEMEN
Anton Volchenkov ($4.250m) / Henrik Tallinder ($3.375m)
Colin White ($3.000m) / Anssi Salmela ($0.612m)
Andy Greene ($0.737m) / Mark Fraser ($0.500m)
Matthew Taormina ($0.510m)
GOALTENDERS
Martin Brodeur ($5.200m) /Johan Hedberg ($1.500m)
BUYOUTS: Jay Pandolfo ($0.833m) / Andrew Peters ($0.166m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled using the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $59,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $59,656,667; BONUSES: $740,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $483,333
But $7 million is doable
With all respect to Quisp, I still like my scenario better.
It’s reasonable that a player of Kovi’s caliber can play until he’s 41 (big difference from 43).
If there’s going to be no fines from the NHL, why not continue to push the envelope?
It would be very dangerous for Lou to play more games with the league
15 years is stull pushing it and is risky. If it is rejected, the NHL could fine NJ for both contracts.
13 years is much safer with a better structure to the deal.
I Agree. But to play Devil's Advocate (sorry)...
Now that the arbitrator has rejected the contract, should’t NJ be entitled to know if/what penalties will be assessed before restructuring a new contract?
Kind of A Right To Speedy Trial sort of thing.
that goes back to the whole 11 v 26 issue.
i don’t think a separate process (in Article 26) is necessary to assess penalties, but smart people disagree with me, and if that were the case then days, weeks, months (years?) could pass before fines are assessed — which would be a penalty all on its own, having to wait to find out what the penalties are. How could they sign IK (or anyone) knowing that at any moment their cap ceiling could drop?
So I guess I agree with you. Yes, my reading of the CBA is that penalties follow the arb’s ruling and lou should know what if any penalties are coming his way, sooner rather than later.
Wait till this year.
I think that they could get him at $90-94/13
NJ is the only team bidding for his service and it is “not about the money”. He has unfinished business with NJ.
At the risk of setting the hair of the entire ILWT community on fire
I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that NJD is the only team bidding for his services right now. Although the psychological aspect of this whole rejection chapter shouldn’t be discounted, in every other way we are exactly right back where we were before the (rejected) offer came down. Lou is saying he still wants to make a deal (just like he was saying before). Lombardi is being coy. Kings people are basically saying nothing. The Kings official blog is essentially not posting at all, just a post every couple of days, or less. The same crazy GMs (e.g. Wang) still have cap space. Blah blah blah.
The fact that even without fines LL will have to dump one more veteran than he would have otherwise, simply because he’s going to have to take on about $2MM more in cap hit, tells me that this could still go any which way. Especially since even if Lou is willing to take on an $8MM cap hit, nobody knows if Kovalchuk is willing to lower his salary requests. The fact that he has said nothing will soon start to be remarkable if this drags on any farther.
The guy doesn’t have a team and camp starts in three weeks.
Oh, and the Kings still don’t have a sniper. So, go figure. I can see IK taking a one year or two year deal and trying again in a couple of years. I can imagine a lot of things happening at this point.
we simply don’t know what IK thinks of what’s happened.
Wait till this year.
Kovalchuk's mom said everythings fine. :)
I also read a rumor that Grossman stonewalled Lombardi when he inquired about Kovalchuk.
Kovy’s mom said she feels the contract with the Devils will be reworked before the start of the season; Ilya himself isn’t panicking.
Wouldn’t set my hair on fire. He’s a UFA. An expensive one. But we have a better idea of what kind of contract is going to be approved.
A deal that gets him up to the Olympics is a possibility someplace. He really wants to play for Russia, and the NHL says it won’t send players. So a couple years, a season in Russia and then back to the NHL? Maybe. Anything is possible at this point.
My prediction is, and not because I am drooling over Kovy in red and black, is Devils, 13 years, 90M. Just under 7/year. Never going lower than half the cap hit. 7M is possible, not comfortable, and I’m on the fence as to whether or not Kovy in the long run will be worth what he costs us in terms of flexibility, prospects and picks a couple years from now. But it’s clear that the organization wants him. The fans are just along for the ride.
And on your analysis, I would be shocked if Zajac was included in the package to make Kovy room. If he leaves, it was most certianly not worth it. Zubrus and Salvadore could make the necessary room, and there’s rumblings that Rolston could be an attempted trade (2 more years at $5M per and a NTC not withstanding) or possibly waived for the 2M it would free up after he’s taken by someone wink wink on re-entry waivers and a minimum wage filler takes his place. The latter being incentive to waive the NTC if he can choose his destination, still an unlikely even given his cost. Although he could be a solid vet for a young team trying to hit the floor.
Back to lurking and reading.
Agreed. Zajac should be interpreted as "Zajac or someone of similar cap hit"
like I said, I am not qualified to say which players the Devils should or shouldn’t get rid of. Just looking at the numbers as an abstraction.
Wait till this year.
I thought the official Kings offer was $80M over 15 years?
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
$80 million/13 years
Lombardi spoke about the contract on a radio program. He specifically said 13 years and the contract would take Kovalchuk to 40 years old. He discussed how they used a bell curve to structure the contract and used Selanne’s late thirties contract as a guide.
Skuba7 – Here is a link to the Dean Lombardi radio interview mentioned by Sydor above. It’s from Toronto’s Fan 590. If you have never listened to Dean before, give it a chance. Lombardi is certainly one of the most candid General Managers in the League these days…
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 11, 2010 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Good listen
Its good to hear candor from someone in power. I find it interesting that he thought the deal was legal, even though its clear he didnt like it.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
savard question
I am asking you because I am not really sure what the big deal is with Savards contract? Ithought it was like a 7 year 28 mil deal? Seems reasonable to me? Is he older than I think he is? I know I could look it up, but why not just ask the hockey/cap/cba/contract Yoda himself?
by 4thliner on Aug 10, 2010 7:45 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
i believe he is 32-33 and the contract takes him till he's 39.
haven’t looked it up though.
Wait till this year.
He's 33 and it will take him to 39
7
7
6.5
5
1.5
.525
.525
It starts this October.
Well, anyone can sign anyone and move contracts to remain under the cap. That is rather simplistic. Signing Kovalchuk to a $7.5 million contract puts them almost $4 million over the cap with only 21 players signed. They have to move 2 vets and replace them with cheap players.
I contend that building your team with 2 LWs is not a good move. $14.5 million tied up with LWs is a strange way to build a team. But what do I know? Lou is the genius.
Well, FWIW I'd agree that it's strange :-)
The tricky thing for NJ seems to be that so many of the players who are good candidates for dumping have NTC/NMC, so moving them would take some persuasion on Lou’s part. Basically, he will have to persuade at least one of his warhorses to jump over the side of the boat with a salute and, “It’s been an honor serving with you.”
Wouldnt be the first time. And Im hoping it happens once again with Rolston.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
True enough
But, back before IK’s contract was rejected, I started speculating as to whom the Kings could poach from NJD to relieve their salary cap pressure. And just about everybody who struck me as both useful to the Kings and a substantial dump for NJD, when I brought up their names, I was rebuffed with, “He’s got an NTC/NMC.”
Rolston, I think the odds are slim that someone else would take him without requiring that the Devils take some salary in return. But his cap hit is, what, $5 mil? NJD could take some salary back and still possibly clear enough room for their purposes.
Devils perspective
Luckily, my hair is not on fire, but thanks for the heads-up.
My perspective is that if IK were to go anywhere else, his reputation would take an even bigger hit than it already has this summer. After seeing/hearing the press conference and interviews after his signing, him signing elsewhere would be mutiny basically. I understand there is a chance of him leaving, but I dont see it.
As far as IK’s salary, we have been deliberating much, and think we can get him in there for a $7M Cap hit without upsetting him or the League. I came up with something similar to WildKaRD while maintaing a $6.533M Cap hit over 15 years.
6.0
6.0
11.5
11.5
11.5
11.5
9.5
6.0
6.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
His rejected contract had $6M for both of the first 2 years and then jumps to Max money. This contract would make IK 41 (turning 42 late April). It would certainly placate IK and the Devils hope for a low Cap hit. The issue of course would be with the League. But here’s the thing with the next contract. The Devils will have the League’s ear before any contract is handed down to IK, to be sure no more Circumvention talk continues. However the contract is structured, I firmly believe IK will be taking a few less Million, not a few more.
As far as who has to go, yes, we have been talking about Salvador and Zubrus as most likely as they are big money guys who either become redundant (Salvador) or are versatile enough to be coveted (Zubrus). That accounts for a maximum net gain of $5.2M towards the Cap. Presuming Kovy takes $7M against the Cap (to give us some buffer), would mean the Devils would have $1.7M left for 3 players. That would of course be tough, but there are rookies/prospects that could fit in there. More than likely however, if we were left with just $1.7M, players like Dean McAmmond would make their way back into the fold for the League minimum.
But, and what has been sneaking into the conversation, is Brian Rolston. Yes, he has a big ugly NTC. However, when questioned from ‘regular’ Devils sources (Fire & Ice, Rich Chere, etc), his comments led us to believe he has already been spoken to regarding a possible departure. He did not include himself when speaking of the Devils team, referring the Devils as ‘them’ and not ‘we.’ Other comments, and his tone, indicate he may have been asked to move, and his reply was ‘I have to do what is best for the team.’ If Rolston is able to be moved instead of Zubrus, the entire situation changes.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
You have 16 years there. Your math is way off, you have $98/16 listed.
Not going to happen. Even at $96.5 for 15 years (removing the last $1.5 you have), it is very close to the Kings offer of $80/13. I don’t care what IK said at the press conference, he was seriously considering playing for LA and the extra $22 million pushed him to NJ.
It’s going to have to be closer to $90-94 million for 13 years to keep him in NJ. They have to maintain their edge against the Kings.
I agree, from reading the reports and rumours and articles, it did sound like Kovalchuk would be an LA King. That being said, I still dont see Kovy being a King now as he has gone thru the process with New Jersey.
Dont mind my math.
But how is $96M/15 years very close to $80M/13 years? $16 Million is a pretty big chasm, isnt it?
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
I just don't think that 15 gets approved anymore
The Devils had their chance before they turned in their $102/17 contract. If they had turned in the $96/15, then it would have been approved, but not anymore.
NJ will have to be very careful, especially if they don’t get any penalties. The NHL is just waiting to see what they will do next. A 15 year deal that has any front-loading will not sit well with the league.
Who knows though, if anything, the Kovalchuk saga has taught everyone that anything can happen.
With you on that last sentence for sure. My guess is, since nothing was spelled out (at least not for public consumption) as to what the NHL will deem ok, the Devils will ahve the NHL’s ear in regards to the contract before its offered to kovalchuk for signing as to avoid any penalties.
I cannot find the link, but I believe James Mirtle had reliable information that the NHL was not looking to punish the Devils with any fines or sanctions. Also, the arbitrator stated that the Devils did not intentionally circumvent the Cap, so no penalty would be coming forthwith.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
I would be worried about the length of the contract, anything above 13 years
but something in that ballpark could certainly work.
p.s. you have a drop of $3.5MM between years 7 and 8, which is more than the $3MM allowed drop (half of the lower of the two first years of the contract = 6/2=3).
hair/fire +heads/up = pun! rec
Wait till this year.
Like I said, dont mind my math, I will certainly be more careful next time. What I was trying to structure was $98M over 15 years, Cap hit of $6.533M. I agree it would be tempting fate with the League at 15 years, but I dont see the Devils making a deal for more than $7M Cap hit unless Lou already has a deal set to dump Rolston.
This exercise would be a lot easier if the Bloch/NHL had an actual clear cut ‘line’ as to how old the contract can take a player until.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
Where is the fun in that?
The NHL tried to put limits in the CBA and the NHLPA wouldn’t go for it. Plus, Bloch and the NHL can’t amend the CBA and add limits. The SPCs have to be looked at as a whole, not just the sum of their parts.
Agreed
Although I hate seeing that phrase “amend the CBA” as I am still stung about the decision that sure seems like the NHL got a favorable ruling to alter the CBA without negotiating with the PA.
At 15 years, the contract becomes very similar to Hossa’s, so alot is dependent on their wording regarding his contract. Dont get me wrong, there is NO WAY the NHL will overturn any contract that has been in place during a season already, but… their ‘findings’ should answer some questions regarding what they will allow.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
seems like the NHL got a favorable ruling to alter the CBA without negotiating with the PA
The grey areas in the CBA were there from the beginning, as both sides were jockeying to get what they wanted back in 2005: the league, a cap, and the NHLPA, some contract wiggle room.
Bloch’s ruling hasn’t “altered” the CBA, but he has delivered his interpretation of it. And that’s what every judge and arbitrator is supposed to do: interpret those kinds of documents when there’s a dispute. If the NHLPA and the NHL want to negotiate something more black and white next time, it’ll take willingness on both sides.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
Oh and the article
Trading Zajac will not happen while Lou is GM. He is the Number 1 Center without any question and is getting better and better. Also, we do not have a plethora of Centers as it stands now, and Arnott will most likely not be returning next season. His spot will be taken by Jacob Josefson, who may arguably be the Number 3 Center this season, and is expected and being groomed to be No. 2 behind Zajac.
As far as Langenbrunner goes, there is a division over at ILWT for sure. It depends to me, entirely on his performance this season if he stays or not and not because of the Devils wanting him to stay or not, but rather what he can command on the open market. Right now, even though he failed us down the stretch and in the Playoffs, Langer is a high-value player with a $2.8M Cap hit. If his play merits him a raise of anything more than a ‘qualifying’ type offer, I dont see him coming back to Jersey. If his salary demand is $3M or less, then I think he will stay, but likely pass along his Captain’s C to Zach.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
yeah, i really just meant a player with a contract of that size, not zajac specifically.
Wait till this year.
Totally agree with this...
I can’t see them letting go of Zajac.
The Spirit of MeatTrain'10!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Aug 11, 2010 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
In Fairness
I just want to see Parise on the Islanders finally, fixing one of Milbury’s huge mistakes.
Dominik signed me for 20 years, and all I got was a press conference and a voided contract...
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Huh?
The Devils traded with Edmonton to get the pick to obtain Parise. I guess you mean picking Robert Nilsson. With so many mistakes Milbury made, this one has to be considered minor as he didnt actually trade Parise, but allowed him (and 14 other teams, SJ twice) to go undrafted.
"Don't worry about my Cap." - Lou Lamoriello
Final Contract Proposal?
Okay, let’s try this one more time…
Upon further review of the voided Kovi contract and everyone’s valuable input here regarding the matter, I propose one final guess as to what the new contract may look like. It meets these criteria:
a) Maintains the “spirit” of the CBA by terminating in 13 years when the player is still just 40 years old.
b) Further maintains the “spirit” of the CBA by keeping the later years of the contract at $1 million dollars (which appears to be the magic number on long term contracts, re: Hossa, Zetterberg, Franzen.)
c) Appeases Kovi by emulating the original contract offering him $11.5MM in 5 consectutive years and keeping the bulk of the total contract value within 10 years (which is most likely the term of his hockey life.)
d) Keeps within the restriction of not dropping more than half of the lower of the 2 first year’s salary in any consecutive year (thanks for that info Quisp, thought I read that in one of your posts many moons ago.)
e) Keeps the NJ cap hit at $7MM/season (I really don’t see Lou agreeing to anything more than this given the team’s cap issues, and that’s assuming there are no fines. He only accepts this just to save face.)
f) Satifies Devils ownership by keeping contract payout of 10 years at $88MM instead of original $95MM.
VOIDED CONTRACT / NEW CONTRACT
2010-2011 $6MM / $6MM
2011-2012 $6MM / $6MM
2012-2013 $11.5MM / $11.5MM
2013-2014 $11.5MM / $11.5MM
2014-2015 $11.5MM / $11.5MM
2015-2016 $11.5MM / $11.5MM
2016-2017 $11.5MM / $11.5MM
2017-2018 $10.5MM / $8.5MM
2018-2019 $8.5MM / $6.5MM
2019-2020 $6.5MM / $3.5MM
2020-2021 $3.5MM / $1MM
2021-2022 $.75MM / $1MM
2022-2023 $.55MM / $1MM
2023-2024 $.55MM
2024-2025 $.55MM
2025-2026 $.55MM
2026-2027 $.55MM
Total new contract value: $91 million over 13 years = $7million annual cap hit.
Obviously, Kovi has got to be willing to take a hit from the voided contract (which he’s gotta at this point, right?) But $88 million for 10 years to stay with a team that he’s “got unfinished business with” still looks pretty good I think.
Anyone???
looks fine to me (I mentally edit out those last four years there, since I assume it's a typo...)
i also agree that the big question now is, will lou go above $7MM? And the related question, will IK budge from $100MM/10yrs?
Wait till this year.
The new contract is on the right...
…it ends at 13 years (2022-2023).
If I was Grossman, I go with $102/13. Didn’t Lou say that the 17 year deal wasn’t about circumventing the cap? Well, just move the money from the last 4 years into the final 2 years of the 13 year contract and call it a day.
…What was that? Lou doesn’t like the cap hit and walks away? Wouldn’t that just prove the intent of the first contract? ;)
Yeah, sorry about that
I couldn’t format the way I wanted to.
Obviously, the last 3 years are a way to get the cap down but I would think the league would have to let it fly based on former contracts.
What I don’t like is that it pretty much guarantees Kovi retires after season 10, or maybe even season 9’s 6.5 million at age 36/37.
There’s a lot of work to be done at the next CBA meeting. I would suggest something like restricting the minimum yearly salary to at least 15% of the highest year’s salary and not allowing a single year’s salary to increase/decrease by more/less than 50% of the previous year’s salary.
That would mean with this particular contract Kovi’s salary couldn’t be more than $9MM in season 2012-2013 (or it would have to be around $7.67MM in season 2011-2012.)
Also, the 1MM years would have to start at at least $1.75MM and the other last 2 would have to be at least $1.73MM based on the 15% rule.
More “respectable” numbers IMO.
One thing people don't realize is...
Kovadonnachuck wants a contract similar to Ovechkin. Here are the numbers I came up with.
2010-2011 $6MM
2011-2012 $6MM
2012-2013 $11.5MM
2013-2014 $11.5MM
2014-2015 $11.5MM
2015-2016 $11.5MM
2016-2017 $11.5MM
2017-2018 $10.5MM
2018-2019 $8MM
2019-2020 $7MM
2020-2021 $3MM
2021-2022 $2MM
2022-2023 $1MM
2023-2024 $1MM
This is a 14 year deal with the same amount of money with a cap hit of $7.28571429MM.
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