Win/Win?

The Spin - The Expected Result


Who knows? An arbitrator could, theoretically, shock the hockey world today. But most don't expect that to happen, and instead it's likely Ilya Kovalchuk will officially become a New Jersey Devil, with his controversial 17-year, $102 million deal approved.


I just (think I) realized something. If you predict the arbitration is almost certainly going to go in the union's favor, then if it doesn't, you get to run with the "shocking development" story, which of course is much sexier than "this is how the coin toss went" story. Whereas, if you predict a victory for the league, and that actually happens, your follow-up coverage might be seen as gloating, but regardless it's just more of the same (e.g. "I said this was going to happen and it did happen" -- as a narrative, that lacks the twists and turns we like in our dramas). I'm not suggesting that people are keeping their real expectations to themselves, but I do think the media as a whole (and without even needing to plan it or think about it) naturally tends toward a prediction of the most exciting story.

I half-disagree with myself. But there's a real idea in there somewhere.

Okay, how about this: it's better drama to say x is absolutely going to happen or is guaranteed not to happen, because even if you're wrong, then you've got yourself an exciting turn of events, even if that turn is just how wrong everyone was.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Jewels From The Crown

You must be a member of Jewels From The Crown to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Jewels From The Crown. You should read them.

Join Jewels From The Crown

You must be a member of Jewels From The Crown to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Jewels From The Crown. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker