Goal Targets and Crazy Talk
by Quisp on Sep 10, 2010 11:18 AM PDT
in Could Happen
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PrintSince the lock-out, no team with an even-strength goal differential of +14 or better has missed the playoffs. In that span, the Kings' differentials have been +1, -44, -33, -31 and +16 (that's the last year of Andy Murray, two Crawfords and two Terry Murrays). Those numbers exclude power-play goals-for and short-handed goals-against. Adding those back in, the Kings' differentials, since the lock-out, are -26, -54, -37, -24 and 20. It's pretty easy to see why the Kings made the playoffs last season.
Two years ago, before Terry Murray had coached a game, I suggested the Kings needed to get their GAA down around 2.75, which was about 1/2 a goal per game lower than the previous season. The idea that this was possible was met with gales of derisive laughter. They ended up at 2.78 (226 goals), one goal-against above the target of 225. But they didn't score much, and the result was an improved but still not playoff-worthy differential of -24.
So, this time last year, I said, if the Kings want to make the playoffs, it would be a good idea to get their GPG up to 3.00 and their GAA at least to hold steady in that 2.75 range. That meant 246 goals-for and 225 goals-against. For the sake of simplicity, I rounded 246 up to 250 and called that the target.
There was some head-scratching. So I budgeted it out. I assigned goal-targets to the different likely scorers (this is the T09 column in the chart below). I tried to be conservative in my expectations, while still pushing for something worth striving for.
The Kings finished the season with 231 GF and 211 GA. So they closed about half the distance between the target and where they had been the season before (202 GF). And that 231 (which is the A09 column -- A for actual -- in the chart below) does not include ten shoot-out "game winning goals" which I ignored because (well, because they're stupid, but also because) those goals aren't assigned to anyone.
And of course, 231 - 211 = +20, which is above the +14 needed to be a playoff team (since the lock-out anyway).
Looking ahead to 2010-11, I think the same targets hold. Keep the goals-against below 225 and shoot for a goals-for of 246+.
I looked at the likely roster -- and being an optimist -- I started to feel like 250 is too low a target. After all, we expect Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson and Wayne Simmonds to improve, and it's (possibly) reasonable to expect Justin Williams to top last year's total of 11, and Scott Parse should do better than last year, and Alexei Ponikarovsky ought to be able to top Alexander Frolov's paltry 19 goals. Just making those assumptions (or are they wishes?), while keeping everyone else at a conservative target (Ryan Smyth, Jarret Stoll, Poni, Michal Handzus all at 20 each, Dustin Brown at 25, Anze Kopitar at 35)...the Kings end up with 280 goals.
That seems impossible somehow.
So I thought I had better reduce the targets for some of these players. I started to do that, but it really seemed, not only depressing, but really unlikely. I included in the chart below what I consider to be a worst-case scenario, the result of which is 210 goals...still better than two seasons ago. But I'm keeping the 280 as the target because I like having something to shoot for. Even if it's just in my own mind.
(The 280 target is represented by the T10 column of the chart; the low-ball target is LB10)
last year
T09
A09
this year
LB10
T10
C1
Kopitar
35
34
Kopitar
30
35
RW2
Brown
25
24
Brown
20
25
LW2
Frolov
35
19
Ponikarovsky
15
20
RW1
Williams
25
10
Williams
15
20
LW1
Smyth
25
22
Smyth
15
20
C2
Stoll
20
16
Stoll
15
20
RW3
Simmonds
15
16
Simmonds
15
20
LW3
Purcell, Parse
15
15
Parse, Schenn
15
20
D1
Doughty
10
16
Doughty
15
20
C3
Handzus
15
20
Handzus
15
20
D3
Johnson
10
8
Johnson
15
20
LW4+RW4
Moller, Modin, Halpern, Segal
10
7
Moller, Clifford, Lewis, Clune
10
15
C4
Richardson, Elkins
8
12
Richardson
10
15
D2, 4-7
Greene, Jones, O'Donnell, Harrold, Drewiske
2
12
Mitchell, Muzzin, Hickey, Voynov, Fransson, Greene, Harrold and Drewiske
5
10
TOT
250
231
210
280
T09 = Target for 2009-10.
A09 = Actual for 2009-10.
LB10 = a Low-ball Target for 2010-11 (a.k.a. worst case scenario).
T10 = Target for 2010-11.
****
I was sitting around idly admiring my beautiful chart, and I realized: I have ten or eleven players (Parse and Brayden Schenn share a slot) scoring 20 goals or more. That would be, literally, the league record for 20 goal scorers in one season. Eleven, set by Boston in 1977-78.
- Bruins (1977-78) - 11
- Blues (1980-81) - 10
- Bruins (1970-71) - 10
- Habs (1974-75) - 10
- Sabres (1974-75) - 9
(Thanks to Gabriel Desjardins, Derek Zona and Robert Lefebvre for pulling these numbers out of the ether.)
Probably that alone makes the 280 target out of reach.
I don't care.
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I think it's more likely the Kings will lower their GA then increase their GF.
With a solid (barring injuries outside of Greene to start) defensive core and the Quick/Bernier combination in goal, I don’t think it’s a stretch to see them improving defensively by a significant margin. In any case, I fully expect the Kings goal differential to be improved this year.
by sstephen17 on Sep 10, 2010 11:50 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
My guess for 250 goals for with 5 20 goal scorers.
Kopitar 34
Brown 24
Ponikarovsky 19
Williams 17
Smyth 22
Stoll 17
Simmonds 21
Parse, Schenn 15
Doughty 24
Handzus 18
Johnson 13
Moller, Clifford, Lewis, Clune 6
Richardson 12
Mitchell, Muzzin, Hickey, Voynov, Fransson, Greene, Harrold and Drewiske 8
Total 250
Pretty reasonable except for Doughty
He could put up 20 goals, but that would be a phenomenal season. Expecting 24 goals is a pretty big stretch. The only defenseman I would expect numbers like that from would be Mike Green. I’d knock at least 5 goals off of him though
I expect Murray to keep Doughty and Johnson on the points with Kopitar’s #1 PP unit. I think that Kopitar and Johnson will be feeding Doughty for the one-timer. Doughty has a much better shot than Stoll from the point and could score 15+ PP goals.
Doughty did get 3 goals in 6 playoff games and I expect him to conitinue to improve. He was a monster on the PP once he was paired with Johnson and I expect the Kings PP to be one of the best in the league next year.
Only 9 defensemen in NHL history have over 15 PPG in a season.
If you’re curious, they are:
19 – Souray
18 – Mike Green, Denis Potvin, Adrian Aucoin (?)
17 – Al McInnis, Brian Leech
16 – Scott Stevens, Bobby Orr, Dion Phaneuf
Adrian Aucoin? (Who is hilarious because his top 3 seasons are 18, 7, and 5 PPG)
On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Hmm. Well, I like optimism! It is reasonable to expect some of the young guys to improve, but goal totals don’t always go up and up (see Brown).
I’d say off the top of my head that I don’t expect the optimistic totals for Johnson and Stoll to be reached, even though I expect Johnson will still improve. Williams-if-healthy should be a lock for 20, but eh, that’s a wildcard. I don’t know what to expect from Parse or Schenn. Hopeful, though.
I definitely expect Kopi to maintain a 30+ clip, and for Doughty and Simmonds to get a few more (18 and 20?). So 235-240 doesn’t seem crazy. At least five players getting 20 or more. If the hockey gods decide to smile upon us and we go even higher than that, I will build them a shrine and be grateful.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I was also thinking about the way Chicago got its scoring last year, with so many people talking about how a team “has” to have more than one 30-40 goal sniper to succeed. Only Kane got 30 goals (Hossa’s total was lowered because he only played 57 games), but still, it’s impressive that the scoring was so spread out along the board.
I’m not saying we’re on Chicago’s level yet, but it shows how different strategies can work.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
I think 250 is reasonable and I think GA is going up this season for everyone. With Chicago winning and Washington blowing everyone out of the water there’s going to be higher scoring games regardless of what the coaches want. Also Detroit is healthier this year. Lets face it a big part of the reason goaltenders aren’t “worth” as much and got horrible contracts is that everyone expects more scores and only occasional big saves anymore. The time is ripe for some more goal scoring.
I think the 280 column looks good except:
Johnson: 15
Parse/shenn: 10
Handzus: 15
Moller…: 10
thats -25 so unless there are injuries. 255 should be an attainable number. Injuries scare me :)
by Sev The Montreal Kings Fan on Sep 10, 2010 8:09 PM PDT reply actions
I hate to say this, but...
I think there is a problem in that not all of the goal scorers will get the premium ice time that contributed to their numbers last year. For example, if Williams plays the whole year, it will take ice time away from someone else. More importantly, one player’s ice time with a top line will demote another player to a lower line with different duties and abilities.
If somebody played with Crosby, or Joe Thornton, one would expect a higher goal total than if they played with someone else. Same with Kopi, and Doughty, our assist leaders; not everyone will get enough ice time with those guys.
We’re gonna need instant chemistry between Ponikarovsky and one of our centers, hopefully that will happen so the lines can be set early and kept together long enough so that the “intuition” of knowing where a linemate is going to go can take hold. If that happens, the numbers could be as high as you hope, but many will have to imrove their assists numbers to yield those goal numbers, which I think only comes from chemistry.
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