Kings 2, Coyotes 3 (OT) - DVR "tape delay" Bullets
by Quisp on Oct 29, 2011 10:14 PM PDT
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Print- The game is already over. But I don't know what happened. I'm watching the recorded game. So this is a backwards version of live-blogging. Live-blogging on tape-delay.
- Drew Doughty in; Viatcheslav Voynov to Manchester. I'm not going to complain about this. I get it. I'm kind of liking my idea of trading Matt Greene and going with pairs of Rob Scuderi - Doughty, Jack Johnson - Voynov and Alec Martinez - Willie Mitchell.
- Simon Gagne is hurt? I guess it's time for Penner to step up. I think he's up to the challenge. [post viewing note: eh, not quite]
- I hope Scott Parse scores tonight.
- Will Trent Hunter persist in being underwhelming? [post-viewing note: yes]
- "Mid body injury." Ha ha.
- Richards to Parse. Still like.
- I wish the Time-Warner remote had the "skip ahead 30 seconds" button.
- Parse great pass/then shot. (@17:00-ish). Buzzing.
- @15:00-ish: Martinez nice puck battle along boards cancelled out by hideous up-the-middle pass.
- Brad Richardson - Jarret Stoll - Justin Williams? Is that a line? No, just half a change.
- Doughty, bad pinch but got back.
- Kings power-play...
- I hate the power-play dump-in.
- Williams gives the puck to two Yotes...
- With "beard", Doughty looks even more like Booger from Revenge of the Nerds.
- Great drawn-penalty by Richardson.
- I do not want Williams and Stoll making cute passes at the blueline on the power play.
- Mitchell - Greene, the post-PP speed unit.
- Ah, Patrick O`Sullivan... Not that he did anything. I just forgot he was there.
- We do love the left to right ring-around. By we I mean the Kings. Not me. I do not like.
- Richardson and Parse have been the most lively Kings so far. @3:11
- Nice take-away by Williams. Bad neutral zone pass by Penner.
- Trent Hunter break-out turnover. Sit on bench, please.
- Hey, Heidi Androl at the rink where my kid plays.
- Yes, and that's what the new Kings logo looks like at center ice. It's not too dark, as some thought it might be (I mean, if the Kings were to do it at Staples). So why again does Staples have the secondary logo?
- What would you call this shade of red in the Phoenix jerseys? It's slightly deeper than the Red Wings' red, isn't it?
- Hunter doesn't understand deliberate offsides rule. Strike two.
- Another nice takeaway by Parse.
- GOAL. Mike Richards. Quick release. I hope Parse gets a point. He made that play.
- Willie Mitchell, assist? Why?
- No, that's got to be changed. It was Parse.
- Turnover by JJ, but is there a reason Kopitar doesn't stay on his feet there? Oh well. 1-1.
- Nice skate pass to Brown by Parse. Mike Richards has too many teeth to be on that line.
- I saw a fake scar at a Halloween store today that looked exactly like Greene's new one.
- Nice battling in front of the net by Penner.
- Nice job by Greene to get that shot through.
- Why is Williams the forward in deep in the defensive zone?
- Haven't seen POS in a while.
- Nice movement by Parse, Brown, Doughty, Richards.
- Oh, f-ing Radim Vrbata.
- Blown assignment: Justin Williams.
- 4-on-3. Why wasn't that puck cleared (Greene, Kopitar)?
- The Coyotes power-play reminds me how much I hate the Kings power-play. Yes, I know the Kings are very good by the numbers.
- There's O'Sullivan.
- 3rd period. Kings power-play. Grrrrrrr.
- I'd rather see more of Richards and Parse on the PP. And more Martinez and Voynov. Oh.
- GOAL by the post-PP Richardson - Kopitar - Hunter line.
- I like sending Kopitar out first thing after the PP.
- Williams, Lewis and Clifford. That would be punishment for the missed assignment?
- Great play by Klesla on Kopitar.
- Another nice drive by Penner.
- Hey, Greene got back fast.
- I know Brown said recently that he absolutely hasn't changed his hitting philosophy because of the head-hit rules. But I think he's changed his style. Maybe he's just consciously trying to be less "big hit" and more "big gun."
- Kings are in their third period "prevent defense", but they're not ahead. This is dangerous, isn't it?
- Ethan Moreau cross-ice pass in the defensive zone, with 4 minutes left? Nearly picked off. Take a seat.
- Parse penalty...I think Daymond Langkow clamps down on that stick. Veteran move.
- Quick and Mitchell save game.
- Hmm. Power play in OT. JJ game winner? He's got two...
- Doughty misses by ten feet.
- Four guys standing around...
- Kopitar shanks it.
- Mitchell almost scores.
- QUICK.
- Fox says "toe nail save."
- Parse back on D. That's not good.
- Not offside. Boo.
- What?
- What was that?
- Okay, that was just silly. Not JJ's fault. Just flukey.
- Blame the loss on PP failure.
- Kopitar needs to finish those. The OT one, and the one in the third.
- Did the Kings out-shoot the Coyotes? I'll bet they did. That would make them 1-2-1 when they out-shoot their opponents.
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Didn't see the game, but saw a lot of Parse in the bullets
I knew you’d all come around on Parse… Hope he keeps getting more time as a top-6…
Yay loser point…
First of all, nobody's ever thought that. Ever.
yep
You wanna tell me that to mah face?!
YET ANOTHER Detroit Red Wings blog.
Parse – 2nd good game in a row
Williams – isn’t speedy enough to play with an anchor
Penner – better butttttt I’m sick of his no look passes and he never-never stands in front of the goalie. What good is standing in the net if your going allow the goalie clear views?
Doughty – clearly was not ready to return. Very selfish when Voyonv could have played.
Clifford – another good night of chasing/keeping pucks deep.
Hunter – actually had two decent sequences.
Powerplay – the real power play showed up and it cost the game. Again Doughty not 100%. Selfish.
Kings – have broken two habits. After last season they finally regained the ability to regain leads late in games. They are losing the ability to hold those newfound
Moreau – through didnt stand out played a solid game.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
by USHA#17 on Oct 30, 2011 8:29 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Again Doughty not 100%. Selfish.
Roster decisions are made by the coaching staff, and Voynov was sent down by our GM. Doughty was trying to push things too hard, but I think that’s a mental over a physical thing. In any case, not his decision, so it can’t be selfish.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
I hadn’t considered…your right, not selfish…so I shift to management.
Doughty told Fox he was not 100% in the 1st and would just focus on his defense and a “basic game”. Assuming Murray knew that why would Murray sent him out on the power play(s).
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
I don’t know. If he’s not 100% they certainly could have kept Voynov up. I’m very confused.
Before the injury I thought he was settling in fine. Then TM said he needed Doughty to dominate and take over games. I think he’s pressing too much when he got nailed. His trademark composure was MIA last night. If he’s not 100% comfortable out there I don’t know why they made that decision.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Murray pushing people to "dominate and take over games" is last year's problem, the old "play the system" but "step up" contradiction
And now “I’m not 100%” ?
I don’t blame Doughty for wanting to go. I don’t blame Parse in the playoffs for wanting to go. That’s what players must do.
Doughty at less than 100% is not worth the risk to Doughty, forget the wisdom (or lack thereof) of playing an injured Doughty instead of a healthy Voynov.
Kings with Voynov: 4-1.
Kings with Doughty: 1-1-2.
2-1-2 if you count the Philly game, in which he played one or two shifts.
Voynov: 2 goals, 1 assist, +3.
Doughty: 0 goals, 1 assist, +0.
Voynov played well. In fact the underlying numbers have him doing better than JJ.
Kings with Doughty 1-1-2.
I get what you’re saying but again, I think people will take it the wrong way. I told you Quick’s SV% was due to come down. I guess that it would probably happen with Doughty in the lineup, and that everyone would flip out. All through the streak people took that as proof the Kings don’t need a (healthy, functioning) Doughty. Quick was just freaking awesome.
Someone wrote an article on ‘early season mirages’ based on usual sv%, and the Kings could have / should have been included. They have not been as good as their record might lead us to believe.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
To date Derek Zona was wrong about Penner making those around him better.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
by USHA#17 on Oct 30, 2011 8:37 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
In Penner’s time in Edmonton, the players he was with had better production with him than without him (at least there).
The Kings not so much.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
the counter-argument would be that
(1) the list of LWs who have clicked with Kopitar is very short
(2) Smyth was good with Kopi for the first part of his first season. But then when Smyth and Williams moved to the Stoll line, that line was as good as Smyth on the first line, while Kopitar (reunited with Brown) proceeded to struggle.
(3) Gagne has clicked with Kopitar in their handful of games.
(4) Penner clicked with Kopitar when he first arrived.
(5) Penner/Richards/Brown are saddled with huge defensive responsibility, and Penner’s defensive numbers (before last night, which I haven’t checked) were solid.
(6) If Penner makes everyone around him worse, then the problem is worse with Brown. I’m talking about chemistry issues. Just because a player is great and valuable doesn’t mean he’s going to be that in every situation.
Penner/Richards/Brown are saddled with huge defensive responsibility, and Penner’s defensive numbers (before last night, which I haven’t checked) were solid.
I agree with all of the above. Especially this.
For ‘Kings not so much’ I meant the offensive production hasn’t been the same.
The funny thing is that Williams and Kopitar generally click, but Williams was out of sorts for another game, and was punished. But this morning everyone has concluded the gigantic problem is Penner.
TM has yet to come up with three functional lines. One game sample sizes only work if you’ve already made up your mind about something.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
I will make you a promise.
Nothing in hockey is truer then your observation that this is a game of highs and lows that average out on the karmic faceoff circle. And right, one game knee jerk criticisms tend to be meaningless.
As for Doughty and the rest; While we have a better team on paper this is a team that has yet to define who they are and discover their character.
IMO a big part of this is due to four things:
—The failure to settle the 3rd and 4th lines
—Penner’s inability to find his game.
—The potential fluidity on defense is a distraction effecting the focus of players.
—Coaching
I had hopes for Penner last night. Last season he was on the verge of clicking with Kopitar and Williams But with Penner….well, where did his hockey sense go?
Oh, the promise…I will refrain from my typical constructive (joke!) comments and will endeavor to make only positive comments on both tonight’s thread and going forward. More so I will find nice things to say about Penner…but that’s a one game promise, only! ;>)
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
Oh goodness. Say anything you want. I like reading your comments. Don’t mind me!
I feel bad now. My one game sample size comment wasn’t directed at you. I actually meant TM and his line changes.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
General thoughts
IMO a big part of this is due to four things:
—The failure to settle the 3rd and 4th lines
Funny how neither Quisp nor Niesy is taken with Moreau (I think) or Hunter.
Yet every year DL seems to bring in a Poni, or someone like Hunter or Moreau.
Yet they can’t flush out a consistent 3rd or 4th line (clear exception being Simmer and Zues). But now that they’re gone no one seems to be stepping up to establish those lines.
I emailed you about this before...but they were due to have their luck come down to earth.
That would make them 1-2-1 when they out-shoot their opponents.
I’m afraid that some people are going to conclude that being out-shot is a good thing. Or that winning while being out-shot and out-chanced is a long term, sustainable trend.
The fact is that Quick put in an incredible performance while Doughty was out, and that covered up a lot of ills. A save percentage of .966 over five games? Three shutouts when you’re drowning in shots? That’s going to normalize.
The Kings are being out-chanced even in games where they outshoot their opponents, like vs. New Jersey. We might complain about not getting the bounces in this game, but we can’t gloss over the good fortune they’ve had before this. We owe Quick a debt of gratitude for those points. Meanwhile, the whole team in front of him needs to be better.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
It could very well happen that they collectively do more of the right things, and yet not be rewarded with the same winning % for a while.
I thought they might be .500ish to start, and that’s probably more of what they deserve. But ten games in, they have some time to work things out.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
winning while being out-shot may well be a good thing for the kings under terry murray. it is a sustainable trend, I believe, in terms of last season.
let me check.
.5888 when out-shooting
.5882 when out-shot
1.000 when shots are even (2 games)
.800 when both teams shoot over 30 (8-2-0)
.589 when both teams shoot under 30 (15-10-3)
so, based on last season, you would argue that if the Kings are out-shot or not is not relevant, but if the Kings and the opp BOTH get a lot of shots, the Kings win at a much higher rate. and if both teams shoot less, the Kings do less well.
therefore, holding down shots for everyone = less good results. higher shots for everyone = better results.
although that only happened 10 times, because murray spends all of his time trying to limit shots against while increasing shots for (i.e. kings outshoot). but there’s no evidence that “kings outshoot” or even “everyone is stifled on both sides” gets to a good outcome.
to clarify, the thing i postulated in the bold part of the above comment turned out not to be right, but a related thing turned out to be closer to the truth maybe
namely that shoot-fests might be better than mass mutual shot repression.
to clarify, the thing i postulated in the bold part of the above comment turned out not to be right, but a related thing turned out to be closer to the truth maybe
namely that shoot-fests might be better than mass mutual shot repression.
The real truth of the matter is that the number of shots you give up is completely irrelevant. The important number is the the quantity of quality shots you give up.
The Kings may give up a lot of shots sometimes but they generally do not give up many good shots. There are a lot of shots coming off angles and from the outside. You can give up 50 of those every game and still win with regularity.
The problem shots are those coming from the slot, on outnumbered breaks, and off rebounds.
I’m not suggesting the Kings never give up bad shots, but frankly, they give up fewer than most any other team. And that is why they can be outshot and still win. Unfortunately there is not really a statistic for that, and even if there was it would be far too subjective.
Shots For Is the Kings' Biggest Problem
And for the exact same reason. Too frequently you have Dustin Brown taking a stupid shot from the top of the circle as he breaks into the zone. No goalie is ever going to let that in and it doesn’t lead to a second opportunity because the goalie either swallows it up or a defenseman deflects it back out to center.
The focus defensively is fine- don’t give up shots from prime scoring zones.
The fous in the offensive zone is terrible. Only a handful of players (Kopitar, Gagne, Williams) are taking good shots and too many are taking stupid shots (Brown, Johnson, Doughty, Penner, Stoll).
The Kings may give up a lot of shots sometimes but they generally do not give up many good shots.
The scoring chance data C&B did from February through the playoffs, plus the games recorded so far this year by fans of other teams, point to the opposite. I wouldn’t assume that the Kings are only giving up low quality shots in the games that they’re outshot. That needs to be documented for a longer stretch.
And better quality chances are better than shots from anywhere. But speaking for the entire NHL, looking at Corsi/Fenwick% has been a better predictor for team success than anything else anyone has come up with.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Since that goes against the anaylsis that more shots correlates with more chances and goals, and also winning…
To be comfortable with that conclusion I would like to have detailed scoring chance reports. And to look at score effects, how well they generate shots/chances when tied, etc.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
And under TM’s system I can well believe that not all shots are created equal. The Kings take tons of shots from the point.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Unfortunately, the accuracy of the NHL’s recordings of shot location is under question.
But they were league average in shots generated on the power play, yet apparently took most of them from long range. That fits our impressions.
The Kings are weird.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
What your talking about is outside-inside.
Unscientifically it appears that other teams have so far managed to bring and keep pucks inside, closer to the Kings net for longer periods then visa versa. Last night may have been an exception with several prolonged scrambles in front of Smith.
Whereas the Kings seem to spend a lot of quality time on the perimeters.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
There are scoring chance reports recorded by fans of other teams that agree with you.
I would really love help with recording scoring chances on our own, so we’d have all games (shots that are taken inside the ‘home plate’).
It would help so much. The Pacific teams in general need more people doing that. I should make a fanpost.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
I’ll try to take note tonight and see if I am any good at it.
What I’ve seen several times, including last night is that 2nd and 3rd chances are often missed or not counted. Seemed to happen to Phoenix several times last night (at least in the commentary).
Is that deliberate? Say a shot is stopped and drops in front, then a player then gets a couple of whacks which are stopped…in my book that’s three shots…correct? Last night it seemed to count as two.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
Of course for inside-outside counts that sequence would count as 1 out, 2 in.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
Each arena has a recorder, and they’re not always accurate. Rebounds should count if they’re on net.
In the fan-powered scoring chance project, shots directed at the net from the home plate area are counted, including missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. If you’re ever interested in trying to track those, let me know. I’d do backflips and cartwheels. I was going to do go back and do the Phoenix and St Louis games this week.
There’s also a website that helps.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
I encourage people to get on board with scoring chances, I am currently doing the Flyers and I really enjoy. I don’t watch the games live, but use Gamecenter to track the game. It takes me just over an hour to score the game in this way.
Use this script to track for this season.
Here’s my recap of the Kings-Flyers game (and Flyers-Canucks).
Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey
Hi Todd!
I read that post before and am going to link to it today. Thanks very much.
If the game hadn’t had so much special teams time the Kings would have been in more trouble, I think.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Thats what I like about you Niesy. You don’t create any illusions. (Oh, and I’m not being funny….. some people say ‘wow, look at their record’, but they honestly haven’t played outstanding so far and you noted it wrt to the play of Quick).
Just call me Niesy Downer. Whomp!
I do feel like I live in a different universe from these people though. The heck?
I think I need to quit this gig.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
while working on weekend
I needed something to make me laugh.
Thanks!
Also, some links to what I'm talking about
Intro guide to Corsi and Fenwick
Predicting future winning percentage based on Corsi/Fenwick is more accurate than prior winning percentage
Hockey analytics are in their infancy, but more info tracked the better.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Yes, in fact and
last night I watched the Dallas NJ telecast. So, NJ clearly outplayed the Kings yet went 1-3 on their roadtrip. That in and of itself is a tad worrying.
Also, what is it that JJ rises to the challenge when Doughty is out? Don’t know what the team’s record is when Doughty is playing (he’s only played, what, three games … can’t count Philly?). But while that is miniscule as a %, they only lost once while Doughty was out I believe.
They lost twice last season when he was out, both times to eventual playoff teams (Phoenix and Chicago). Only once this time.
I don’t believe that Doughty’s presence causes JJ to suck, but if it’s a mental thing with him, he’ll have to deal with it. I’m not worried about turnovers as much as I used to be. However, he’s still on the ice for a lot of shots, and more even strength scoring is what they’ll need from him. When I get the other games scored we will be able to see how the scoring chances stack up.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Against everyone’s previous wishes, Johnson was a -3 with Doughty back in the lineup.
Besides the 3 racked up during the penalty fest against Philadelphia, Greene (often the criticized for his penchant for penalties) has only two minor penalties in 9 games. This is half of what Parse has in the past two games.
Later on in the year, it would be interesting to see the number of minor penalties taken normalized by TOI… Could be a better indicator of overall responsibility than plus-minus? I’m not saying there aren’t times when the right play is to take a penalty, but often it’s because you messed up in the first place…
by maxwellian_demon on Oct 30, 2011 10:19 AM PDT reply actions
Other then having been suckered I felt Parse played an excellent game last night.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
SPECIAL REQUEST
Quisp, would it be possible for you to do the DVR breakdown more often. That was better than the game. Actually that was far better than the game (though I only heard it on the internet).
Oh, I’m not being tongue and cheek. I found the comments interesting but fun the way you express them.
I think I will do it again. Thank you for the compliment. I enjoyed doing it.
tonight’s game i fast-forwarded through. it was one of those games you could just tell the kings were going to lose and were going to bore the shit out of me along the way.
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