Too tired to bother with mid-term "grades"
by Quisp on Nov 21, 2011 9:32 PM PST
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I've decided to skip the B.S. and just give you my notes on the data for the first twenty games.
- Slava Voynov -- leads Kings defensemen in goals and points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time (G/60, P/60) and in power-play G/60 and P/60. Highest QUALCOMP (quality of competition) among Kings' defensemen and third highest on the entire team (just a hair behind Dustin Brown and Dustin Penner). First among d and second on team in plus-minus/60 (behind Gagne). First in the league in goals among rookie defensemen, second in points (5 points in 8 games; the leader -- Marc-Andre Gragnani -- has 6 points in 20 games).
- Penner -- highest QUALCOMP on the team. As much as it would be easy to jump on the "Penner sucks" bandwagon, I still think this has more to do with yet another 20-30 goal-scoring left-wing trying in vain to fit into Terry Murray's system. Penner, Alex Frolov, Alexei Ponikarovsky, all three bore the brunt of tough defensive minutes and all three saw their numbers suffer. Are all three "enigmatic"? Sure, maybe. But come on. It's not all Penner's fault.
- Jarret Stoll -- lowest QUALTEAM on the Kings (besides Kevin Westgarth). Yes, his offensive numbers are underwhelming. But after several years of playing with top-six line-mates, he's suddenly got no support whatsoever. He's also starting only 44% of the time in the offensive zone ("zone starts"), which means Murray is putting him out for defensive zone draws much more often than not.
- Scott Parse -- Third among Kings forwards in plus-minus/60, behind Simon Gagne and Brown. Fourth on the team in G/60, behind Gagne, Anze Kopitar and Mike Richards.
- Ethan Moreau -- has dressed for every game. For some reason, I thought he was a healthy scratch at least once.
- Stoll, Trevor Lewis, Matt Greene, Moreau and Colin Fraser are the five guys most likely to be on the ice for a defensive zone draw. Not all at once, obviously.
- Fraser leads the team in drawing penalties (per 60 minutes), followed by Brown, Lewis, Richards, Brad Richardson, Kopitar and Parse.
- Voynov also leads all Kings defensemen in GFON/60 (goals-for, for which the player is on the ice, per 60 minutes of icetime), followed (in descending order) by Martinez, Greene, Jack Johnson, Rob Scuderi, Willie Mitchell and Drew Doughty.
- Mitchell leads Kings D with the lowest GAON/60 (1.23) followed by Doughty (1.24) and Voynov (1.40).
- Doughty (0.2) and Martinez (0.3) lead Kings' D with the lowest PTAKE/060 (penalties taken per 60 minutes). Greene (1.2) takes the most penalties. Gasp.
- Doughty and Voynov lead all Kings' D with the highest PDRAW/60 (penalties drawn), with 0.5.
- The Kings are 25th in goals per game (2.4).
- The Kings are 8th in GAA (2.3).
- 9th on the power-play (19%).
- 18th on PK (81.2%).
- Dead last in first period goals (9).
- 3rd in second period goals (22).
- 23rd in third period goals (15).
- 3rd in the league in hits (492).
- 5th in the league, 1st in the conference, in missed shots (262).
- 4th in the league in giveaways (203).
- 29th in takeaways (100).
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Highest QUALCOMP (quality of competition) among Kings’ defensemen and third highest on the entire team (just a hair behind Dustin Brown and Dustin Penner). First among d and second on team in plus-minus/60 (behind Gagne).
Not to puncture the balloon, but that’s what happens when you have a few games vs. others with 15-20 or more. The results weighted per 60 minutes of ice time skew to greater extremes (see also Loki’s corsi).
He has still faced top pairing competition most often, which is solid.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
by Niesy on Nov 21, 2011 11:14 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
also
the whole point of /60 stats is to level the playing field in order to compare players who have played different amounts, both per game and over the course of the season. I think we all know that a batter who has one at-bat and gets a hit is batting 1.000 in a fairly meaningless way. and we all know that players who play 25 minutes a game experience a different game than those who play 5 minutes, etc., etc..
I don’t think you understand what I mean.
It’s high Qualcomp. It should be high Qualcomp. It’s the sample size that needs a while to level out before you can give them much significance. We have an already small sample size for the other players (20 games or fewer), and in Voynov and Lokti’s case they’re less than half that.
All of these stats have been fluctuating quite a bit after even one game, because it’s a small number of games. Weighting it per 60 minutes of ice time will level the playing field over time, but until Voynov plays more games, it’s skewed.
Technically Drewiske has the highest Qualcomp of all defensemen — 0.524, which is more than triple anyone else’s! It’s because he was in one game.
If Voynov had played in all 20 games, he would be at Willie Mitchell’s Qcomp (likely a little less, since Mitchell is sent out for some more shutdown situations).
If you say that it is significant that he has the highest Qcomp of defensemen who have played two or more games, to what extent do you mean? I do think it’s significant that he’s been given top pairing responsibilities for the most part, as I said.
Do you fundamentally reject the notion of small sample size affecting the results? Because BTN would disagree.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
I would say some of those samples are far from being actuarially credible. But that never stopped me from trying to get a bunch of numbers to say what I want them to say. :-)
by Passemoilapuck on Nov 22, 2011 3:14 PM PST up reply actions
no, i just think you're being overly rigid
i never said the numbers were concrete proof of anything, nor did I use them to make an argument one way or another. of course small sample sizes affect results; that’s common sense. but it does not “have to be” that Voynov’s qualcomp is high just because he’s played fewer games.
to what extent do I mean? i don’t know, neisy. voynov could have a bad plusminus/60 instead of a good one, or a low qualcomp instead of a high one. the numbers are significant in that they are real numbers for his first eight games. I don’t think anyone should infer that voynov will ride these numbers out until his jersey is retired. I didn’t say he was better than doughty, or that he should be rookie of the year. I also don’t think that scott parse is better than kopitar just because his g/60 has been consistently better over (I think) Parse’s entire NHL career.
as far as “fundamentally rejecting” the importance of sample size: the standard for “hey voynov is playing well” is somewhat lower than it is for “vaccines cause autism.” nobody is making definitive conclusions about voynov or anyone else based on 8 games.
the fact is, voynov has played very well in his short career, and the numbers bear this out. that’s significant because if he sucked and his numbers were bad, it would make a difference in personnel decisions. for example, who exactly would be playing now? Hickey, probably, right? anyway, the team can hardly justify sending voynov down at this point. so who is going to get moved? it’s likely that the futures of voynov, hickey and/or martinez will be affected “significantly” by how voynov plays in a very small number of games, a smaller sample than would be needed to reach a definitive conclusion (and in hickey’s case, he so far has a sample size of zero), but that’s the hand the kings are dealt.
I’m not trying to be overly rigid, I’m just trying to add context. I also am trying to understand what you mean by significant, since I can’t tell what part of my statements you disagree with.
but it does not "have to be" that Voynov’s qualcomp is high just because he’s played fewer games.
This is my point: he’s played almost every second of his time 5v5 with Willie Mitchell. His Qualcomp and Mitchell’s were not different for those games. If someone were to look at that and conclude that he was given tougher assignments than Mitchell, that is not correct. That is all the context I am trying to add. The number of games he has played has impacted that number.
Trent Hunter had the team’s best relative Corsi — like, Datsyuk +20 levels — just a few games ago. Is he a magic hidden talent? We will have to see, but I’m betting it’s the small amount of games he’s played creating more noise.
These numbers are fluctuating a lot. Just to give an example, Doughty’s Qualcomp right before the Johnson/Doughty experiment was .136. Three games later, it’s all the way down to .056. A game or two on the top pairing will draw it back up again.
Whoever plays with Richards’ line (like, say, Richardson) rockets up the team Qualcomp charts after a single game, and falls if they are taken off of it.
These are very early returns and I think it’s fine to take that into account.
the fact is, voynov has played very well in his short career, and the numbers bear this out.
I agree with this, I just think we have a different way of talking about the same number. I think they say he’s faced top pairing competition, and I would definitely take that as evidence for the above.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Who knew Fraser was gonna be useful? For a throwaway, he's a nice 4th liner...
Top 5 in missed shots and giveaways, no surprise there, it’s been killing us…
And the PP has been fine, but now PK is a problem… 7(or 8) straight games allowing a PPG, either we stop committing penalties or improve our PK…
First of all, nobody's ever thought that. Ever.
You're more than welcome to #Occupymybed
I always thought Fraser always was a useful depth guy in Chicago. Edmonton was just a bad place for him, as it is for everyone not named Ryan Smyth.
Fuck if I know
by DontDoughtDrew on Nov 22, 2011 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That’s just PK percentage, though. I don’t think it factors in all the shorties we’ve had (does it?). I don’t know if we have stats for PK +/- per minute or something, but I think we’d see an improvement.
I’ve felt for a long time (that means under DL’s guidance) that the skill quotient is too low.
So, leading the league in missed shots doesn’t surprise me. It’s not just the missed shots though, because very often those end up being the equivalent of turnovers (unless I’m mistaken about that) and especially on slap shots that can lead to the opposition coming back the other way.
Two ways to look at it. Missed shots stem from puck possession, which in and of itself is a good thing. I’d like to see if their ES shooting % is abnormally low, which might suggest “pent up” goals if they eventually regress to their mean shooting %. I’d like to see their raw team Corsi to maybe parse out whether the missed shots are turning into chances going the other way.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Nov 22, 2011 7:49 AM PST up reply actions
Missed shots depend on the team...
Watching the Red Wings dismantle the Kings/Ducks road trip made this clear, once again…
A shot banked off the boards deliberately (or accidentally) is a miss but can lead directly to a goal.
A wrist shot soft as a pillow can score a beautiful goal.
The hardest of slap shots can carom out of the zone and cause an outnumbered attack the other way.
In other words, it totally depends on the circumstances.
Data Sources?
I assume the league rankings are via NHL.com.
From whence come the Moneypuck numbers?
The stats that matter:
Dead last in first period goals (9).
3rd in second period goals (22).
23rd in third period goals (15).
How inconsistent is THAT?
Could that be related to the long changes in the second period? But then, they come up with this:
4th in the league in giveaways (203).
29th in takeaways (100).
What can I say?
—It’s all Moreau’s fault!
Just off the top of my head, it seems to me that the second period has been problematic in most of the Kings’ losses, just as it seems to have been instrumental in their wins. So there may be something to the long changes being significant, for good or for ill.
"I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly
I think I missed that
on the first reading of Quisp’s stats.
OK. So, perhaps all the giveaways cause they have the puck so much? Maybe.
But I imagine it’s because passes aren’t connecting, and the skill level isn’t magnificent amongst forwards. No such complaint re: the dmen
The other telling stat is the no. of shots:
???
If the team leads the conference in total shots missed, how are they in total shots?
Maybe this isn't accurate, but
it seems like a cycle-in-the-corners/dump-and-chase/defensive mindset game plan will inherently lead to more giveaways and fewer takeaways…
by maxwellian_demon on Nov 22, 2011 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
Anyway, these stats are quite interesting
and somewhat revealing. I probably don’t feel the Kings are as good as some people think they are. Either they’re playing below their capabilities, or they simply aren’t a true Stanley Cup contender as some in the press seem to think.
Maybe it’s somewhere between the two. It’s hard to get a grasp on this team, but what Quisp said about ten days ago (re: scoring after 16 games and how it tended to play out over the season, for those who remember that post), it’s not what I’d call overly encouraging.
Actually, I think the Kings should be much, much better.
I say, take the restraints off & let these guys run and gun a bit…
My worry is Brown. Check out this article:
http://goo.gl/I9wCV
Games Dustin Brown has played this season: 20
Penalties drawn by Dustin Brown this season, according to Yahoo!: 17…
Penalties Dustin Brown will draw this season at this pace: 70
On one hand, the guy draws penalties & hits everything that moves.
On the other hand, the guy couldn’t hit the net if it were water and he was sitting in a rowboat with an oar…
On on hand, Brown makes a move like he did against the Red Wings, holds onto the puck, patient, patient, open in front of the goal for 1-2 seconds, then hits the goalie right between his numbers with the puck, and I realize he will never be an elite goal scorer.
What to do, what to do…
I say he is a third line monster, if only we had the top six forward to replace him.
—Trade, anyone?
Jim Fox mentioned it before, but it seems like Brown isn’t hitting nearly as much as he used to. According to ESPN stats, he’s ranked #30 this year. In the last three years, he’s finished #3, #2, and #3 respectively.
October (11 games): 20 hits ( 1.8 hits/game)
November (9 games): 26 hits (2.88 hits/game)
He’s still not hitting as much as he did last year but he’s been hitting more recently.
It's the residual from the new anti-concussion rules.
He sees the light, now…
by BakoCA on Nov 22, 2011 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
A note about the numbers, from an interested observer:
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/eau9u6
So now, I’ve got more questions for Q:
—Breakdown of PP/PK per period
—Even strength vs. PP vs. shorthanded goals/ per period
Oh, and for SharkCircle:
—We have Richards/ has at least 3 shorthanded goals (by memory)
Two other things that might be interesting
Corsi Rel: a measure of how the player is driving the play forward (measured in shot differential) relative to the team
Kopitar, Richardson, Martinez, Gagne, Doughty and Williams have been very good. Richards, Johnson, Scuderi, Brown and Moreau haven’t. Considering that most of those players are facing the opponents top competition (I use Corsi Rel QoC), that’s a stark difference in outcomes.
Also, the Kings rank 16th overall in Fenwick% when close, or 8th in the Western Conference. Fenwick close/tied has been shown to be a good predictor of team quality and future success.
Tracking the Flyers scoring chances at Broad Street Hockey
It’s so great that you can get that at BTN now, and not have to run the script for individual teams.
Richards should be given better support on wing, I think, and unfortunately, the Johnson/Scuderi pairing is still not helping there.
It will be interesting to see how much that changes over time, esp. if they get different bottom 6 personnel.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
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