Just how bad ARE the Kings?
by Quisp on Dec 11, 2011 1:45 PM PST
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PrintKings lose fourth consecutive game: Changes coming? - latimes.com
[...] Who stays and who goes? A night of nostalgia ended in boos by the Staples Center fans on Saturday night as Dallas beat the Kings, 2-1. The frustration and anger was visible in the dressing room, which not a surprise if you consider the Kings have lost four in a row, scoring an underwhelming six goals in that stretch. A major player trade was expected from the Ducks and they ended up switching coaches, firing Randy Carlyle and replacing him with Bruce Boudreau. Do the Kings run the same play with Terry Murray? Or do they end up making a rare major mid-season trade? King captain Dustin Brown was asked if he thought individuals were anticipating a shakeup, in terms of a player move. "It’s hard to say. I’ve never been on a team that’s good, that’s gone through this," Brown said. "That’s probably the biggest difference for me. We have a good team in here. We’re capable of doing everything we need to with the people we have in here.
Let's start with that, the comment from Brown that I put in bold. I don't know what he's talking about here. Losing four games in a row? The Kings have done that multiple times over the last two years, several four game losing streaks, a few 1-7 runs, a 2-10, an 0-5. And that's just from memory. Does he not know this? Or does he think that this team, the 2011-12 team, is "good" while the previous two years were not? I kind of think that actually is what he's saying here, that the addition of Mike Richards and Simon Gagne -- and all the babbling about the Kings being cup contenders that went along with it -- made the Kings "good" on paper, whereas the other teams were merely "ahead of schedule" (or pick your own euphemism for "good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to go very far").
Not to belabor the obvious, but the not "good" team of two seasons ago finished with 101 points, third best finish in franchise history. The not "good" team of last year finished with 98 points. This team is currently on pace for 85 points, which is likely to be 12 points shy of a playoff spot. Their win-% is now at .517, which is worse than at any time last season. Last season, if you recall, the Kings dipped to .521 in January and everyone on the planet (but me, the eternal optimist) said they were doomed to miss the playoffs. Only a historic hot streak in which the Kings tallied 45 points in 29 games, for a win-% of .776, saved them from that embarrassment. And key to that streak was a hot-hand in the shoot-out (5-1 during the streak, 11-1 on the season) that simply is not sustainable. In other words, if the Kings need to repeat last season's shoot-out success to make the post-season, the last six years' worth of shoot-out data say that's not going to happen.
The Kings need to play at about a .632 pace to cross the playoff threshold. That would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 31-17-5 from here on out. There are currently ten teams playing above .632, five in each conference. In order, they are the Wild, Flyers, Rangers, Red Wings, Bruins, Blackhawks, Blues, Canucks, Panthers and Penguins.
Seven of those ten teams are in the top ten in goals-per-game. Of the other three, the Panthers are 12th, and the Wild and Blues are in the bottom ten. But the Blues and Wild are both better than the Kings in goals-against, and the Panthers are just a hair worse.
If you look at 5-on-5F/A (goals-for/goals-against ratio), six of the top ten teams are in the top ten by win-%, the other four are in the 11-19 range. The Kings are 23rd. No team that is currently in a playoff spot is in the bottom 10 in 5on5FA.
With last night's performance, the projected total goals for the Kings (180.9) dropped below the 1969-70 Kings (181.26; 168 in a 76 game season), which means that they are on pace to be the lowest goal-scoring Kings team in franchise history.
Changes coming?
There are three options. (1) do nothing, wait for the ship to turn around on its own. (2) fire the coach or coaches. (3) make a big trade to shake things up.
The first option, I think, would result in Lombardi getting fired. Unless of course the team makes a miraculous turnaround pretty much ASAP.
The second option is the clear winner. For all the obvious reasons, combined with what I'm about to say about option 3.
The third option: imagine Lombardi pulls off a big trade for a scoring somebody-or-other. Some big pieces will be sacrificed to make that happen. Who would that be? If we're lucky, it would be somebodies like Jarret Stoll or Matt Greene. If we're slightly less lucky, maybe we also lose someone like Jonathan Bernier, maybe Alec Martinez, maybe Kyle Clifford. More than likely, though, it would involve someone big, because teams aren't likely to cough up their big stars to a struggling team that has no leverage, without getting something delicious in return. Certain players are untouchable, but I would not put Brown or Jack Johnson on that untouchable list. I said this in yesterday's post. Brown is the captain on a team with leadership issues. And JJ, well, he's just a very attractive piece for a lot of opposing GMs.
I would hate to lose either of those guys. But I find it hard to imagine a big trade that doesn't involve one of them. Under these conditions.
Now:
Say Lombardi bites the bullet and deals some fan favorites away in exchange for a Big Gun. Say it's Zach Parise. Or Rick Nash. Or whoever your favorite superstar is. The Kings added Penner at the deadline, a guy who has scored 20-30 goals a year basically his entire career. Now he's virtually useless. Lombardi traded for Mike Richards, and signed Simon Gagne. They're both playing their asses off, or were, in the case of Richards. And the result is? The Kings suck. Alex Frolov was a 30 goal-scorer before Terry Murray got ahold of him. Teddy Purcell, Matt Moulson, Brian Boyle, all filled the net once they escaped his evil clutches.
Why does anyone think adding another Big Piece is going to make any difference? Since they're all asked to do the same thing, play the same way, and their numbers all plummet? Is anyone going to feel better with Zach Parise instead of Dustin Brown, if Terry Murray is still the coach?
I didn't think so.
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I think you’re taking DB’s statement a little too literally. He obviously isn’t talking about a 4 game skid. He’s talking generally about the struggles the team is having, scoring and otherwise. Underachieving so horribly.
more speculation to contribute
maybe he’s trying to say, “never been on a team that’s good, that’s gone through this [with the weight of expectations that were thrust upon us at the beginning of the season]”
which would actually go very well with your idea of “Underachieving so horribly.”
You wanna tell me that to mah face?!
YET ANOTHER Detroit Red Wings blog.
He’s talking generally about the struggles the team is having
That’s exactly right. The same struggles as past seasons. Which is why reading into the comment is necessary…
“I’ve never been on a team that’s good, that’s gone through this.”
Defining ‘good’ is part of it. Quisp’s idea that past teams were not good makes sense.
BUT
The other part is what troubles me most, which is defining what ‘this’ means.
I don’t think he’s talking about losing streaks or scoring. I think he’s talking about the mental and emotional state of the team, which is to say…
He’s never been on a team that’s good that has had severe motivational issues. In other words, even the past few seasons had guys more determined and motivated than this group.
I actually give him credit here because as the Captain, part of your job is to track that shit and nip it in the bud. (and I really don’t think he’s capable of doing so).
The other factor is exactly what this post is about… coaching.
I think that quote from Brown is evidence Murray has lost this team IMO.
Preseason dithering hurt the team in the first three games (four if you count Hamburg) and continues to haunt the locker room.
Job security continues to be a distraction for players on the cusp and in the bottom six.
Coaching, lack of a set roster, a poor choice in Moreau, (mis)use of Hunter, whatever the fuck is goes on in Penner’s head, the potential that is not Doughty and poor goal rotation add up to the 11-12 LA Kings.
No sense chasing a Parise or equal (especially an unsigned one) while these distractions are in place and LA is in a weak bargaining position.
IMO a major change in coaching and the system(s) is a must. Time is wasting. Additionally settle on a damned roster so players feel both confident and safe to make a mistake. Lastly, DL needs to find a couple of dependable bottom 6 wings…he’s good at that, right?
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
As for bottom 6
Who’s to say that the same malady that is smothering our ‘top 6’ scorers hasn’t been equally (or more) suffocating to guys like Lewis, Richardson or hey, even Westy?
For all we know they could all be 20-goal scorers in a different situation. I think the players we’ve already got are as talented a group as any team should need to solidly be one of the league’s elite squads.
Oh, I agree with you.
To restate, I feel Clifford, Lewis Richardson and Westy need to be augmented with better left and right wingers.
Fraser at center is almost OK but slow and not the sharpest (anyone now think Handzus wasn’t worth the $2.5m the Sharks forked out?). Hunter is on the far side of his days while Moreau was at end of days before the season started.
I am glad to have Richards but Moreau and Hunter are anchors; Fraser is the chain.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
Pending Shakeup
Like so many others, I share the sentiment the it is time for TM to move on. For reasons we may never know, the players are not responding to him. Pragmatically speaking there is nothing else management can do but dismiss him. It is just the way it is.
A roster shakeup is in some respects a separate issue. Trades are very hard to prognosticate whether or not the players you get will help you, and how much you will get hurt with the players you lose. I like JJ but he would likely be one of the departing, and he has the most “value” of our defensemen and the Kings have others to step into his role.
I’m a fan so it is hard to want players you have an affection for to leave. Having said that, I fuckin’ hate paying pretty hard earned money to go and see an underperforming team. We’ll see what happens…
The players are responding to him
That’s part of the problem. No one thinks he’s being tuned out given that the team is playing the exact way he tells them to. It’s that the way he tells them to no longer suits the team, and therefore he should have been gone weeks ago, and arguably before the season.
Well maybe
I sat right on the ice last night. The players looked lost in the offensive zone. No meaningful fore check. No ability to even get set up. Very few plays to the net. I see a lot of individuals trying hard I think, but not playing together on offense.
I think a large part of the TM problem is apathy among the players. Yes I understand that it is the players’ job to get up for games, but it is pretty clear that there is at least a critical mass of guys on the team that seem very confused about offensive play-making and execution. There is no “desperation” because that does not help confusion.
I realize that a mediocre team cannot be “coached” into an elite one, but the Kings do not have mediocre players…
Bottom line is, something's gotta give....
and I don’t see Lombardi pulling the trigger on a big deal, that’s just not his style; even the Penner trade was a bit of a surprise. So you’d think (and hope) he’d fire Murray to buy himself some time. PLEASE.
"Dusty Mitts":http://dustymitts.blogspot.com/
I vote for option #2, but here's the thing...
What coaches ARE THERE for DL to hire really? I thought about Randy Carlyle, but he was fired for pretty much the same reason. The one coach that WAS available was snatched up right away(You all know who I’m talking about. The one in Anaheim.) So, basically, it comes down to the assistants right now and if they’re STILL struggling, THEN TM gets the axe.
"Soo many games, soo little time"
People keep bringing this point up
And I don’t think any of us have the answer. Coaches can come out of left field because GM’s are much more in the know that we are as fans. Just because we don’t see any from our limited view doesn’t mean options don’t exist.
Which fan had even heard of Andy Murray (who actually sounds like a dream coach right now compared to Terry) out of Shattuck St. Marty’s when he first came here? I don’t know what people were thinking n Pittsburgh at the time but doubt anyone thought of Dan Bylsma when it came to getting a new coach.
This was exactly my response when Dennis Bernstein was trying to use that argument about replacement coaches. Just because a Kings fan can’t name one he deems acceptable, doesn’t mean someone in the organization can’t. He’s not very good at making logical arguments, although that might partially be a symptom of twitter’s character count limits.
There are plenty of coaches in the AHL that are hungry for an NHL job. How about the Penguins coach? He was coach of the year in the AHL last season.
Part of Dean’s job is to know who is out there and they have scouts everywhere.
Yeah there’s always great talent in the AHL (look at how Mike Yeo is doing with the Wild this year, for example) but I really doubt the Pens will let another team sign their Wilkes-Barre coach halfway through the season.
In the off-season there are definitely more opportunities in terms of AHL coaches and NHL assistants. The Sens seem to have the rebuild going very nicely with Paul MacLean out of Detroit, as another example. I’d love to poach some people from that organization rather than relying on Flyer castoffs. At the moment though, we’re likely to be limited to unemployed NHL coaches and those within the Kings’ organization.
At the moment though, we’re likely to be limited to unemployed NHL coaches and those within the Kings’ organization.
Both a very poor idea imo. You’re spot on in terms of waiting till the off-season. I don’t see the point of going the ‘interim’ route. What’s the point?
Yep, no argument there; it can be done. It was certainly decent of Nashville to give Carolina permission to hire him. It doesn’t hurt to try.
by SCSF on Dec 11, 2011 8:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Remember when the Habs fired their assistant? Peary Pern. Of course I only know about this guy because Ed Olczyk was talking about him on Versus and saying he was a very good hockey man…… and that his firing had nothing to do with the problems in Montreal.
So again, I don’t know much about him. But I will say one thing…. I definitely don’t see a coach whose been around the block as being right for this team. DL’s done it twice now, and while the points were there for two years, the consistency certainly wasn’t nor was the creativity or the power play.
And a thought that just comes to me this moment; they’d do well to find someone who can ‘recalibrate’ Doughty. He’s their key and they’d better find someone who can help him to find his wheel house…. i.e. the way that he feels most comfortable playing…. not imposing a certain system on him. That won’t help matters at all if the coach isn’t a good fit with Doughty.
Hire Larry Murphy?
"We will come with our guns blazing, and we just blazed." - Tim Leiweke
by DodgerBlueBalls on Dec 11, 2011 9:35 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Example of the Type of coach I'd be interested in
I say the type, because he’s with Dallas, so not available. But just by reading his quotes and about him, you can see that he’s flexible, not afraid to not know stuff, will ask for help when needed and all the rest. Beats the heck out of canned quotes at least.
He may flame out for all we know, but again, I’d lean towards this sort of a template if they were gonna make a change.
about coaching choices
Quisp, when Terry Murray was chosen, I didn’t hate the choice, but I was sort of ho hum about it. He didn’t seem like someone who could lead the team to a Stanley Cup is all and people (bloggers) were talking early on about getting someone later who could get them to the next level
So depending on if you look at DL as someone who doesn’t make good choices for coaches, what makes one think that the next coach would be a better one then his past choices?
Lucky Luc??
could it really get any worse?
Giants win the World Series! (soda spews from nostrils as I choke for joy)
IS there even a debate?
Of course its TM’s fault. You gave three or four prime examples of people who had offensive talent when NOT playing for TM. Personally, im boycotting until a change is made-hopefully i hear TM is fired. I cant stand the late 90’s-early2000’s devils…and i cant stand this teams dullness. Only difference between the two teams is that they actually won!
I want to see our players play hockey. I think they are being asked- no told- to think entirely too much out there thus eliminating their own God given natural instincts for the game of hockey. TM IS THE REASON. Not DB. Not the PP. TM.
The best thing i can say that makes me smile when i think of the Kings is that we have Kopitar and Richards(come back soon) on our team….and that VV has been given an open door and fucking jumped through that shit with all his being.
But for now…im not watching the Kings until we have another coach…i can find 100 other boring things to do for 3 hrs three nights a week.
"It's not illegal. It's frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane."-Alan Garner
Is Brown the real captain?
I don’t think so. I’ve never been good with him being captain in the first place. Should have been placed on Kopitar imo but that’s just me. I think he’s captain is because he’s Murray’s yes man. Everything Murray says and wants he does. TM says to jump Brownie says how high? Everything that TM says Brownie regurgitates like he’s a puppet with no mind of his own.
He’s unfit for the captaincy. If you are in this funk you’ve got to find a way to get them out of it. TM sure as hell won’t. He’s stated it once before that it’s not his “job” to motivate these players. They are playing in the highest level and they should “know this by now.”
I always thought his captaincy was a mistake
Murray’s first year as coach, the captaincy had just been vacated by Blake. The team was ridiculously young. It should have rotated through with several players having it for a month or so each, Brown, Kopitar, Frolov, maybe even Doughty. Just giving it to Dustin Brown was f***ing stupid.
Yes Man
If he is Murray’s “Yes man” that would be an arguement for him to be “C”.
“Everything that TM says Brownie regurgitates like he’s a puppet with no mind of his own.”
Statements like these devalue an arguement.
Leaders, real leaders, always support the people above them, wether it be coaches or bosses or military ranking, GREAT leaders find a way to do that while not loseing those they are leading.
by kevin_ebel on Dec 12, 2011 8:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Perhaps we can get Lou Lamoriello to step in until the end of the season and then send him back with a pick as part of a package for Parise’s negotiation rights?
Mistake
Dustin Brown won the NHL Foundation Award.
Leadership isn’t about doing what you are paid to do or what you have to do.
Leadership is about doing what is right, no matter what you are or aren’t getting paid or what you have or don’t have to do.
You know what's worse than sucking?
Sucking and being up against the cap ceiling… If we’re gonna suck this badly, move some salary out for picks/young players… Or a bag of pucks, in some players’ cases…
I’ve said it before, but Mark Morris of the Monarchs might be worth giving a shot…
I look in the mirror, and I don't like what I see. So I bought a new one.
I think mgmt is reading this blog
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-1212-kings-murray-20111212,0,3653815.story
Fire Murray!!! gaining some steam…
Road Trip
Hard to do before a road trip, but I guess something has to change.
TM has done a great job teaching this team a lot of good hockey fundimentals.
Now they need to learn a different set of rules, a different system, one that allows forwards to play in scoring area’s and put some rubber in the twine.
by kevin_ebel on Dec 12, 2011 8:04 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
TM will get fired before a big trade is done
It’s the simpler, more logical move. As the old adage goes, it’s easier to fire one guy than to fire (trade) the other guys on the team.
I think if DL fires TM and the Kings start playing well (especially on this road trip), he’s going to stick with his guns until the trade deadline. Maybe a coaching change is enough to shake the team out of the doldrums.
Richardson’s play against Dallas kind of highlights TM’s failing IMO. He was clearly the best King on the ice. For the past few weeks, I’ve wondered why he wasn’t inserted earlier, especially after Richards’ injury. Instead, TM chose to go with bigger, slower forwards like Moreau and Hunter.
kings
If u watch most of their games- they are in almost everyone. They do get many quality chances every game, but are seemingly unable to put the puck in the net. Most of The games they win, they are outplayed, but because the style of the game is more open, they tend to score more. Plus, in those games the goalies are far more active-which both Jonathans’ seem to feed on. When they are stagnant for long periods they give up goals, when they are making many saves in a row it keeps them in the game. Terry Murray is not the right coach for this type of team. They need a guy who is the opposite, and who demands every player be responsible for their man on the ice. Find a coach who can do that, and they will win. Make it fun for the team and not a chore
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