Kings-Blackhawks Preview: Dad Time
by Niesy on Dec 28, 2011 12:59 PM PST
in Game Previews
Email
PrintSince we last lost a game to the Chicago Blackhawks...
IN: Brandon Pirri was recalled from the AHL to center Sharp and Hossa against Columbus.
OUT: Marcus Kruger experienced a renewal of his concussion symptoms one game after his return. (The Jackets targeted him all night. Sad.) Dan Carcillo may be close to returning.
Also of note: Patrick Kane missed practice with flu symptoms, and Steve Montador had a "maintenance day."
Possible lines:
Brunette-Toews-Kane
Sharp-Pirri-Hossa
Bickell-Bolland-Stalberg
Carcillo (?)-Mayers-Frolik
Keith-Seabrook
Hjalmarsson-Leddy
Montador-O'Donnell
Crawford
Kings lines:
Gagne was placed on IR with a concussion, and did not travel with the team. Andrei Loktionov remains on the 23 man roster and shifts to wing.
Richardson-Kopitar-Brown
Loktionov-Richards-Lewis
Penner-Stoll-Williams
Clifford-Fraser-Westgarth
Scuderi-Doughty
Mitchell-Voynov
Johnson-Greene
Quick
Game outlook: The Blackhawks are the NHL's hottest team (8-1-1 in their last ten), and speed always gives the Kings trouble. Though they have improved markedly possession-wise since Murray was fired -- that's including the John Stevens road trip -- Detroit, St. Louis, and Chicago remain a cut above. It's going to take an all-out team effort and some fatherly inspiration to win this one.
19 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
You may find it interesting to note…
Chicago has taken only 55 more shots on the season then LA but tallied a whooping 41 more goals then the Kings.
Roughly, LA will have to out shoot Chicago 7:5 just to tie.
A tall order.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
But remember that LA’s shooting percentage thus far has been abnormally low (Chicago’s is top 5 in the league). Being abnormally low in the first bunch of games in the season does not make it more likely they will continue to shoot that way going forward.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
I double checked. The Kings are still dead last in the entire league as far as shooting luck so far. Currently 6.8% when they had been averaging 8.5% the last two years. They didn’t lose all their skill overnight, and the underlying numbers are pretty good. Fortunately shooting percentage has been going up like we’d expect.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
another good sign is that our fenwick numbers are vastly improving. I think we’re 11th in the NHL now in close games.
The Kings are 7-1 to win the division right now in vegas. Seems like a pretty decent bet to me.
Free Marc-André Cliche.
Yeah, the team jumped a good 5-6 places at least. The biggest gains are when they are down by one goal. They used to be second to last, eesh.
The team turned around before Sutter arrived. But of course he will get the lion’s share of credit. :)
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Its not that he gets credit...
…it having to see that smile when he gets it!
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
It makes it more likely that our mean shooting percentage is lower than originally assumed.
by BobKnob on Dec 28, 2011 2:49 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Didn’t think on terms of percentage…just that a 41 goal difference is a wow that pops.
I agree that the Kings should trend upward…a game of averages playing out afterall
Love to see it continue tonight…till then.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
by USHA#17 on Dec 28, 2011 2:59 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
So you’re saying in the NHL’s recorded history (of shooting %), no team who was at some point in the season (say, the 36 game mark) below the league average ended up with a worse shooting % by season’s end?
You also realize that the way you phrase the question makes it seem as though the Kings all along “deserved” to have a league avg shooting % (let’s assume luck was equalized or something) and will naturally trend right to that number given enough time, instead of trending to some number somewhere between the current value and the league average.
We very likely would have trended towards some value below the league avg, is what my point was, because that more closely represents our expected value given everything that happens on the ice, and the half-season’s worth of data indicates we play bad.
Either way, our “extreme bad luck” so far this year does not mean we are due for a run of extreme good luck to cancel it out, so our final numbers will probably be below the average even if your assumption, that we are a league-avg shooting % team, is true. Flip a fair coin 100 times, if the first 50 were heads, your final expected value is not 50% heads, it is 75% heads, because each trial is independent, and you have 50 trials left.
I don’t doubt our numbers will improve now with the changes in our play (I see differences other than the players are trying harder) and new head coach, but I’m pretty confident our numbers would not have moved much in either direction under TM. We just did not have enough good scoring chances or near misses to score many more goals than we did. We were not more snakebitten than any other team we played against, imo. We were just really bad offensively.
I don’t think it’s precise to say it will always trend towards the league average any more than it is to say it will trend to 50%, in summary. I don’t expect you to pinpoint a specific number, but just claiming it will go to exactly avg is a major leap in logic.
Ah, I think I misunderstood you. Yes, even if the Kings shoot average from here on out the final total for the season is more likely to be lower than 8.5. Unless they have a streak of above average luck for a very long time, which I have never predicted (just a return to average would be a big improvement in scoring).
I thought you were saying that given the talent on the team we should have expecting something below 8ish from the get go.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
by Niesy on Dec 28, 2011 5:30 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Under Murray, I would say yes, unless he somehow figured out how to be a good coach. Under DS, who knows. Need to see more. I think we have te talent to at least be average.
by BobKnob on Dec 28, 2011 8:18 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Also, I don’t think Rick was claiming it will go exactly avg, to pinpoint but there is a greater likelihood the team will shoot around avg. than well above or below in any given segment of a season.
But 82 games is not very long so some teams can finish above and below that average and regression/progression is seen next season.
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
by Niesy on Dec 28, 2011 5:44 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
We have career averages for most individual players. Going off of that, it shouldn’t lead us to believe in a lower baseline
Dinglebarnin' It JftC
Agree, but
I tend to look at that data as well but then you need to track the delta.
I assume delta is the “system”, unless someone else can build a different schema with that info.
Big One
Tonight is one of those big games I have a star on next to my Kings schedule @ work.
I am really interested in how well we do against the (current) #1 team in the NHL.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Jewels From The Crown
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
