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The Real Western Conference Standings (Philly West beats Philly East Edition)

PHILADELPHIA - FEBRUARY 13:  Jarret Stoll #28 of the Los Angeles Kings checking Chris Pronger #20 of the Philadelphia Flyers on February 13 2011 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Lou Capozzola/Getty Images)

First, thoughts on the game: 

  • I'm going to go a little against the grain and say that today's game could easily have gone either way. The Flyers had the post on their first shot and several other very scrambly crowded-crease moments. The Kings had Kopitar's post, Simmonds's breakaway and a few others (Ponikarovsky's cut to the middle). The Kings have lost several of these games this year. It was about time one went their way. I'm not taking anything away from them. It's just that sometimes you play a great game and lose anyway. (That's when Murray says he likes what he sees and everyone wants to fire him.)  
  • Another thing compounding the feeling that we dodged a bullet: two too-many-men penalties. 
  • Shutting out the Flyers AND winning both fights in Philly is especially delightful.
  • Westgarth's grab-hand assault was eye-opening. And I thought Kyle Clifford destroyed Daniel Carcillo. But I'm biased. 
  • I wouldn't be surprised if Stoll gets a game suspension for the Pronger hit. 
Q OFF.   PTS W% PRJ PB +/- to95 GR R/OTW R/OT/SO
1 1 VAN 81 0.7232 118.6 31 16 6-18-2 26 34 32-11/2-4/2-5
2 2 DET 72 0.6545 107.3 38 9 10-14-3 27 31 24-16/7-4/2-2
3 3 DAL 68 0.6071 99.6 44 3 12-11-3 26 26 22-19/4-2/5-4
4 4 NAS 67 0.5982 98.1 45 2 13-11-2 26 24 24-19/0-4/6-3
5 8 MIN 65 0.5909 96.9 45 2 14-11-2 27 28 24-20/4-1/2-4
6 6 ANA 68 0.5965 97.8 46 1 12-10-3 25 28 25-21/3-2/4-2
7 5 PHX 67 0.5877 96.4 47 0 13-10-2 25 26 25-19/1-6/3-3
8 10 LAK 65 0.5804 95.2 47 0 14-10-2 26 25 24-22/1-2/6-1
9 7 SJS 66 0.5789 94.9 48 -1 13-9-3 25 27 25-21/2-4/3-2
10 11 CHI 62 0.5536 90.8 50 -3 15-8-3 26 25 23-22/2-2/3-4
11 12 CBJ 61 0.5446 89.3 51 -4 16-8-2 26 24 20-23/4-3/4-2
12 13 STL 57 0.5278 86.6 51 -4 18-8-2 28 21 19-21/2-4/3-5
13 9 CGY 64 0.5517 90.5 52 -5 14-7-3 24 22 20-22/2-3/6-5
14 14 COL 56 0.5000 82.0 56 -9 18-5-3 26 22 17-25/5-6/3-0
15 15 EDM 40 0.3571 58.6 72 -25 n/a 26 15 13-32/2-1/1-7

 

Key to the standings: Q is my standings, ranked by points-blown. OFF is the official standings (via ESPN). PRJ is projected final point total. PB is points-blown. +/- is points-blown above or below the 8th seed. TO95 is the record each team needs to get to 95 points (the newly-adjusted best guess threshold for making the playoffs). GR is games-remaining. R/OTW is regulation and OT wins (the first tiebreaker). R/OT/SO is the team's record broken down by wins and losses in each of regulation, overtime, and shoot-out. 

Observations: 

  • The best EDM can do is 92 points. They are eliminated. 
  • Unless you think COL is going to end the season with an 18-5-3 run, they're done, too. 
  • The eleven teams from 3rd to 13th are still in play. That's six playoff spots for eleven teams that are currently separated by 8 points-blown or 11 official points. STL is 11 points behind DAL, but STL has two games in hand. 
  • I really don't think DAL (currently 3rd)  has a significantly better chance of making the playoffs than CGY (currently 13th). 
  • Everyone is sufficiently bunched together that I'm going to start running the season-series chart more often. Here it is, with a couple of added columns: W+/- shows the difference between the Kings' R/OTW from the above chart, and the R/OTW of the team in question (this is the first tie-breaker); the second new column is GD, which shows the difference between the Kings' goal differential and that of the team in question (this is the third tie-breaker -- I resist calling it goal-differential-differential). The second tie-breaker is head-to-head, or season series (unless it's a three or more-way tie, in which case it's the records of all the tied teams against each other, which is beyond the scope of this chart). 
  1 2 3 4 5 6 SS W+/- GD
STL -2 -2 -2   - - -6 4 41
CGY -2 2 1   - - 1 3 28
NAS 2 2 -2   - - 2 1 7
CBJ -2 2     - - 0 1 40
CHI -2 -2 -2 -2 - - -8 0 5
DAL 2 2 -2       2 -1 23
PHX -2 -2 -2 2     -4 -1 22
SJS -2 2 -2 1     -1 -2 17
ANA -2 2         0 -3 22
MIN 1 -1 -1   - - -1 -3 23

  • The chart is sorted in order of tie-breakers, first by W+/-, second by SS, third by GD. 
  • The boxes to the right of each team contain a value (2, 1, -1, -2) for each game against the Kings. The 1 and -1 values are for games the Kings either win or lose in OT/SO (since the series is a tally of the points the teams earned in head-to-head competition, an OT victory against a team is a net gain of only 1 point, when compared to the point tally of that same team). 
  • The Kings rock in GD, trouncing everyone they might ever be tied with. Too bad goal-differential isn't the first tie-breaker. 
  • The Kings have already lost the season series against STL and CHI. 
  • The rest of the season series are very much up for grabs.

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The fact that Pronger got called for a penalty after the Stoll incident

Hilarious…

"My lovelife is like my personality: dry"
"Drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. And by "we" I mean you.

by angelofdeath on Feb 13, 2011 10:54 PM PST reply actions  

Would have been double-extra tasty if he’d gotten another minor for that little tantrum afterward.

"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim

by DougX on Feb 13, 2011 11:16 PM PST up reply actions  

It’s just that sometimes you play a great game and lose anyway. (That’s when Murray says he likes what he sees and everyone wants to fire him.)

I’ll file that under “Ain’t That The Truth,” because we’ll probably need it again, eventually.

Without a doubt, it was a game that could have gone either way. Anytime you get outshot… what was it, 40-28?… and win, it could definitely have gone against you just as easily. I actually give Philly a little credit here; they played like they knew they shouldn’t expect the Kings to play as badly as the last game between them.

Clifford manhandled Carcillo. I don’t think Carcillo fully grasped what it meant to get a piece of Kyle Clifford, and Cliffy gave it to him. I was proud of the kid. And proud of Westgarth, too, for showing some crafty in his fight.

"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim

by DougX on Feb 13, 2011 11:15 PM PST reply actions  

I live for PB...

First off – great win. Huge victory, not only with the 2 points, but the mental “win” for the team, and a SO for Quick.

This whole points-blown charting has really been a revelation for me. I enjoy crunching data as well, so you inspired me to recreate my own P-B chart so that I could update it on my own on the fly, as league games finish.

(btw – and I’m not trying to be one of those guys … but I believe your OFF rankings are incorrect. Among other things: the Kings currently sit 9th.)

Again- great work and thanks for all the content you provide for the benefit of others, Quisp.

Sig-na...ture

by OneTimer. on Feb 13, 2011 11:53 PM PST reply actions  

NBD

That (renumbering that column) is usually what I forget to do before re-sorting for the other column. The worst part of it all is … the Ducks jump up to 4th. Booooo….

Sig-na...ture

by OneTimer. on Feb 14, 2011 6:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Once again, the Master speaks his wisdom. Excellent point.

Cheers.

Sig-na...ture

by OneTimer. on Feb 14, 2011 8:24 AM PST reply actions  

Just watched part of the replay on FSW — that was Jody Shelly that Westy beat, not some anonymous wanna-be goon. I thought Westy clearly outfoxed him with the grab-hand punches and the uppercut. Sweet.

"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim

by DougX on Feb 14, 2011 1:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Quisp, I’m surprised you resisted the temptation to change the caption on that photo. It was a golden opportunity for us all to giggle at our immature sides.

by King of Saskatchewan on Feb 14, 2011 1:29 PM PST reply actions  

You ever see a corgi/greyhound mix and wonder how that “works” logistically? Well…

The West Coast is the Best Coast.

by RudyKelly on Feb 14, 2011 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Looks like Stoll and Pronger just drove to Aspen on their scooter and didn’t stop for bathroom breaks

For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.

by Nut on Feb 15, 2011 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

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