Exciting Kings Stats You Can't Get Anywhere Else!
by Quisp on Feb 14, 2011 12:58 PM PST
in Weird Science
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PrintWell, some of them you can. But most of these, you have to have a special kind of OCD to bother. In the chart that follows, numbers refer to jersey numbers (e.g. "when 11 scores" means "when Kopitar scores"), and numbers in parentheses separated by commas means "one or more of" the players in question (e.g. "When (11,23) scores" means "when at least one of Kopitar or Brown scores"). Oh, and "and" means "and" (i.e. "when x and y happens" means both have to happen).
| Kings' Record | 31-22-3 |
| When a defenseman scores | 14-2-0 |
| When 23 or 11 score | 19-5-1 |
| When 14, 28 or 94 score | 25-10-2 |
| When (11,23) and (94,28,14) and D score | 8-0-0 |
| When 17 or 26 scores | 7-8-0 |
| When (11,23) and (17,26) score | 5-2-0 |
| When (94,28,14) and (17,26) score | 6-3-0 |
| No goals by 11,23,94,28,14 | 2-9-1 |
| When any other forward scores | 14-5-0 |
| When Kings' PP outscores opponent's PP | 11-2-0 |
| Kings' PP and opponent's PP are even | 18-10-3 |
| When Kings' PP is outscored | 2-10-0 |
| Kings outshoot opponent | 17-13-3 |
| shots even | 2-0-0 |
| Kings outshot | 12-9-0 |
| Shots 30 or over | 15-9-1 |
| Shots for both teams 30 or over | 6-1-0 |
| Kings 30+ shots, opponent 29 or less | 9-8-1 |
| both teams under 30 shots | 9-9-2 |
| Kings under 30 shots, opponent 30 or over | 7-4-0 |
| Kings score 0 goals | 0-3-1 |
| Kings score 1 goal | 2-7-1 |
| Kings score 2 goals | 2-6-1 |
| Kings score 3 goals | 9-4-0 |
| Kings score 4 goals or more | 18-2-0 |
| Opponents score 2 goals or fewer | 24-6-2 |
| Opponents score 3 goals or more | 7-16-1 |
| Both teams, 2 or fewer goals | 4-6-2 |
Some observations:
- Jarret Stoll, Ryan Smyth or Justin Williams score in 25 of the Kings' 31 wins.
- When Stoll, Smyth, Williams, Anze Kopitar or Dustin Brown don't score, the Kings are very likely to lose.
- When the Kings' powerplay outscores their opponent's powerplay, the Kings win nearly all the time.
- When the Kings' powerplay is not outscored by their opponents' (i.e. even or better), the Kings are 29-12-3. When the PP is outscored, 2-10-0.
- The Kings do not do much better than .500 when they get more than 30 shots and their opponent gets less than 30. But, they win nearly all the time when both teams get 30 shots or more. They are dead even when both teams get fewer than 30 shots. And they do extremely well when they get fewer than 30 and their opponent gets more than 30. This surprised me. Shot-fest, good. Out-shot, good. Even, a wash. nobody shooting, a wash.
- This suggests that the Kings benefit from a more wide-open game, doesn't it? Maybe not, but it sure looks that way.
- The Kings almost certainly will lose if they score two goals or less (4-16-3).
- The Kings almost certainly will win if they score three goals or more (27-6-0).
- I was surprised to see that the Kings are 2-6-2 when scoring 2 goals. Since they are an excellent defensive team, I expected two goals-for to net a better outcome.
- When a defenseman scores, the Kings almost certainly will win (14-2-0).
- They also do very well if a forward that's not one of the big seven (Kopitar, Brown, Smyth, Stoll, Williams, Handzus, Simmonds) scores, 14-5-0.
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I’m a numbers geek, so I find this quite enlightening. I’m willing to bet every team in the playoff hunt will have similar stats when it comes to the scoring success (or lack thereof) of their Top Six forwards.
On another note, I think you’ve scientifically proven how important the PP is. Maybe those commenters at LAKi are on to something when they call for Kompon’s head after every loss. ;)
by King of Saskatchewan on Feb 14, 2011 1:34 PM PST reply actions
Hits?
Was gonna add Hits by 23 … but compared to what?
vs. the opponents biggest hitter?
vs. the league average hits per game per player? (AHGP)
vs. 23’s average hits per game? (AHGB)
in games where Hits/AHGB > Points/PPG by 23?
Guess I’m still trying to decide if I prefer (read: what’s better for us all?) for:
Brown to be out running around throwing the body,
– OR –
Brown to be out trying to bury the puck and make plays,
– OR –
Both.
Cause although I’m a fan … I still ain’t 100% sure yet.
Sig-na...ture
How about these obscure and potentially irrelevant statistics?
KINGS RECORD WHEN…
Brown scores at least one point: 20-4-1
Brown takes three shots on goal or more: 15-10-2
Brown takes two shots on goal or less: 16-12-1
Brown is credited with three hits or more: 23-15-1
Brown is credited with two hits or fewer: 8-7-2
Brown takes a penalty: 10-7-1
Brown draws a penalty (according to ESPN boxscores): 12-11-2
I threw the penalty thing in because I recall Brownie being quite adept at putting the Kings on the PP. But since our PP is often ineffective, it doesn’t seem to have as much of an impact as I thought it might.
Obviously (as Brownie would probably say), getting #23 on the scoresheet is a huge lift for the team. Whether he shoots the puck or passes doesn’t seem to make a difference.
But the interesting thing I found is the hitting. I arbitrarily picked three hits to be the threshold because that sounds like an average number if you ignore the fact that Brownie averages 3.75 hits per game. So I did it again, putting the over-under at 3.75, and suddenly the record is 14-12-1 when Brown has 4+ hits. Yet we’re 10-1-0 when Brown has 4+ hits and scores at least one point.
Keep in mind that the hit statistic is very subjective. For example, Brown averages 4.7 hits per home game, but only 2.8 hits per road game. Is that because scorekeepers are biased? For the record, NHL-leader Cal Clutterbuck has 5.1 hits per home game compared to 4.2 hits per road game.
So, in short, I really don’t know how we could measure the captain’s performance. And to answer why I did this rundown – it’s a day off for me, so I have a lot of time on my hands…
by King of Saskatchewan on Feb 14, 2011 3:35 PM PST up reply actions
Wow...
that’s some serious data crunching. Day off? Looks like you worked your ass off. Fantastic post KoS.
The 10-1-0 stat is along the lines of what I was looking for. Same for the “3Plus hits vs 2Less hits” records delta… that’s a difference of +29 points (47 vs 18) for the team! Is there something to that? Does Lombardi have a chart for this? … although VERY interesting pull you found also about the home hits vs road hits. That seems fishy, for sure. Granted I’m just a beer-leaguer, but I seriously doubt NHL players skate around with a “mental governor” on – depending on whether they are on home ice or away. (Only explanation might be the home crowd effect?) They play the game, the way they play the game … the way they play the game. Skate – Pass – Shoot – Hit – Repeat.
I’ll repeat (louder this time) … that I’m a fan, a supportive fan, of our Captain. So much so that I want more from him (as I do any #1 pick) – but also because I believe in him and I don’t necessarily think trading him away is an effective answer (as we see so many fans clamoring.) A LOT of teams would love to have this guy. He may not shock and awe like Kovy or Ovie or Crosby or others might do most nights – but I think he’s got a big, big, purple tattoo (IYKWIM). And that’s sumthin’.
Sig-na...ture
Whoa, this is so cool.
When Stoll, Smyth, Williams, Anze Kopitar or Dustin Brown don’t score, the Kings are very likely to lose.
No kidding. These five guys account for almost 60% of all the Kings’ regulation and OT goals.
After that, the drop-off is steep. As we know, the usual third line (Cliffy/Poni, Handzus, Simmonds) isn’t putting up as many points at even strength as last year’s third line did. Fortunately, it looks like Simmer might be getting hot again. And Doughty has picked up the scoring lately as well.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
… and when the Kings score more goals than their opponents, they are undefeated.
by m_and_m on Feb 14, 2011 2:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Well, there was that one game in Ottawa….
by Passemoilapuck on Feb 15, 2011 7:53 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I noticed yesterday that the Kings goal differential is +24, way more than any other pacific division team, yet they’re in last place :(
www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Feb 14, 2011 2:51 PM PST reply actions
I know. It's crazy!
The only teams with better GD so far are:
Vancouver +57
Philadelphia +43
Boston +37
Pittsburgh +32
And Detroit is tied with us at +24.
What do these five teams have in common? They’re all locked in playoff position and will likely have home ice advantage in the first round at least. Logic tells us teams win if they score more than their opponents. If the Kings keep growing the GD, there’s no way they miss the playoffs — unless, of course, they win a few 6-0 games and lose a lot of 2-1 contests. But knowing our anemic offense, that’s not likely.
by King of Saskatchewan on Feb 14, 2011 3:12 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, it’s a bit depressing. Teams with good goal differentials have missed the playoffs before; they’d rather not have that dubious honor.
It’s not unreasonable to expect their record to improve, but it’s all on them.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
+23 is the best differential for a non-playoff western team in the last ten years.
Wait till this year.
Yeah…‘07 Avalanche were +21. I was thinking of Buffalo and the Wild too — you’re right they were lower. +19 and out of the playoffs is rare, but still disturbingly possible.
I am resolved to see it as a good sign that the team defense is solid and they’ll be able to keep this up, though.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
They're even in the Pacific
Interestingly, the Kings differential is a straight-up 0 so far against division rivals.
That’s a big point actually. Just goes to show how important division matchups are from here on out.
www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Feb 15, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
OT: Versteeg to the Flyers for a 1st and a 3rd…man, they’re loading up.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
I saw that. I must admit I find myself wishing Versteeg was headed our way. Obviously I don’t have a clue who was “in” and who was “out” but in a reportedly weak draft year I would have felt comfortable giving up a 1st and a 3rd.
Philly fans seem unhappy…they haven’t had a 1st round pick in a while, and they’re worried about the cap and re-signing Leino. I don’t get the Leino concern myself. Couldn’t they just easily move Versteeg in the offseason? Young LW? And if negotiations with Leino don’t go well (this is where everyone else in the league gets excited), they keep Versteeg.
Our 1st and 3rd are probably going to be more valuable than the Flyers’, esp. given the way our scouts find guys in later rounds. I dunno. We will see.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Yeah, our 1st and 3rd will definitely end up higher than the Flyers’, and that’s why I’m kind of left wishing we had grabbed Versteeg. He’s signed to an affordable cap hit (or at least I think he is prior to receiving a Quisp-down), he’s 24, a Stanley Cup winner, and he plays left wing. It would seem that with our prospect depth we could take the hit that losing a 1st and a 3rd would entail. Maybe Dean is up to something, or nothing, else, but I thought Versteeg would have been a real solid fit.
The Flyers’ first won’t end up any higher than 27th or 28th in all likelihood…I’m rather perplexed by Burkie’s logic on his one.
Yeah, that offer could have beaten it. Staying conservative doesn’t surprise me. We’ll probably find out later if we were ever in it at all. Until then, rumors.
Tomorrow a psychic chicken will reveal that DL is ponying up a 1st and Schenn for Kadri and Kaberle. But we will probably need to add a 4th. VOILA.
Bwak bwak bwak.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
…maybe the thinking is wait to get Versteeg in the summer?
Oh, what the trade deadline does to me!
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
That’s the kicker for me. Versteeg is signed through 2011-2012 at a hit of 3,066,667. At that price, with that resume and our needs, it seemed a perfect fit. In Dean I trust, but it seemed the right fit.
Burke is probably still holding a grudge for DL taking Schenn.
by sstephen17 on Feb 14, 2011 7:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
On the other hand — I know Toronto wanted him on the top line and that didn’t work out. I haven’t seen many Leafs games this year so I couldn’t say why. Maybe because he tops out at 20 goals, 50 points? Did they see something that turned them off? There weren’t any rumors from LeBrun that said we were interested.
It’s not like every team wouldn’t want to add scoring — and I have no idea what they expect of Sturm now — but if you go for that, it does limit your options. (I really want to keep Justin Williams so much that this may be skewing my thoughts.)
I can also see us bemoaning missing out on any option at all. I mean, we have Handzus as our left wing. I hope Sturm is close to coming back, and/or that the current lineup continues to work.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Also, I thought this was funny: Philly’s coach came out and said that the real reason they wanted Versteeg is because he reminds him of JW.
Oh dear, he is going to be the best RW UFA out there if we don’t extend his contract. Aaaaaaaah!
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Also, now that I’m rambling about 1st rounders, I think Nashville made that move not only for better publicity than money could ever buy, but also to keep the likes of Weber happy that the franchise is going somewhere. I give Poile and that organization a lot of credit, they’ve also made trades for guys that might not have worked out (like Kostitsyn) and yet Trotz can get them going. They don’t usually lose deals or overpay.
So two different teams with two different reasons to give those picks up. Though the draft is supposed to be weaker, I think the 1st round choices are still solid. I see what you’re saying too.
For Valentine’s, I would like the Kings to get Magnus Paajarvi wrapped in a bow. Shhh, don’t shatter my dreams.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
"weak" draft
i hear this argument every year.
the most plausible idea that i’m on board with about this year’s draft is that while it may be relatively deep, it’s not as top-heavy as the last few (Tavares, Hall, Stamkos and the four defensemen, etc.). Couturier, Nugent-Hopkins (boy, would i love to get a job in broadcasting just to be able to say that name in a game), Larsson, Landeskog: i don’t quite understand how people can classify a draft as “weak” before it even takes place and the players undergo their NHL development.
that said, i think the Flyers overpaid, but they could afford to.
I’ll give you the “weak draft” point, but I’d argue that a) everyone overpays this time of year and in free agency and b) we could afford to overpay as well.
I would have been pissed if we traded a first for Versteeg. Not good enough. I’m surprised the Flyers didn’t save their ammo for a goalie.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
They’re really into the Boucher/Bobrovsky tandem. I guess the model of the prior cup winner is still working its influence.
Good point though.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Bob’s good, Vokoun is better.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Seriously. I wonder what the asking price on him was. Or if Holmgren just went nope, I’ve made my choice.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
oh hells yeah
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Feb 14, 2011 11:45 PM PST up reply actions
Great stuff Quisp. I was thinking about the Kings excellent record when allowing so many shots. The only two plausible answers IMO:
1. Although the shot count is high, they come from the outside and/or bad angles. Bend, don’t break.
2. Quick gets better the more shots he sees.
Although the shot count is high, they come from the outside and/or bad angles. Bend, don’t break.
That’s a good point, “Bend but don’t break” is a phrase you hear lot in football about the zone defense; I think the hockey equivalent would be, “If the goalie sees it, he can stop it.”
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
So I'm watching the Calgary feed of the CAL-COL game
Which is kind of gross, considering that it’s 5-0 COL after the 1st. But it’s NHL Center Ice free preview week, so I’m determined to get the most out of it.
And there’s a hardware store commercial featuring Tyler Toffoli! He’s not shilling for the sponsor; the theme is profiling prospects, or some such. He looks like a middle-schooler with a buzz cut. Still a kid. But the highlight reel they put together for him suggests that he has great hands and excellent vision. Makes you want to fast-forward 2 or 3 years when he’s in the AHL, or even on the cusp of making the Kings.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Toffoli is ridiculous
worth paying to stream a game or two
super quick release, seeing-eye pucks…he’s not robitaille, but he reminds me of luc in the way that luc couldn’t skate as well as others but he had the instinct for where to be and when to be there.
hopefully, we’ll see schenn v. toffoli v. kitsyn v. vey v. czarnik v. deslauriers in the playoffs.
Wait till this year.
i think the avs are about to be dropped from Quisp’s highlighted “teams that matter to the Kings”
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Feb 14, 2011 11:46 PM PST up reply actions
Make that, 5-0 CGY after 1. Very ugly for the home fans.
But that was Tyler Toffoli in the commercial.
And Olli Jokinen looks more and more like a human tree trunk as he gets older.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Ugly, ugly game
8-1 in favor of CGY, which I presume is bad for the Kings.
Jokinen and Duschene both left the game injured.
Didn’t know that Charlie Simmer is now a broadcaster for the Flames.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
What about faceoff percentage as it relates to their record?
They seem to be doing pretty terribly in that category of late…but they are winning.
“Dustin Brown sucks!”
*Player worse than Dustin Brown is traded
“Hey, why didn’t we trade for that guy?!?”
Byfuglien signs new deal
The Thrashers just gave Big Buff (no way I’m writing his full name out more than once in one post) a 5-year $26M contract. What does this mean for the Kings and Doughty? Drew hasn’t won a Stanley Cup yet but he is a better defenseman that Buff. I thought Doughty’s contract would end up being similar in price point to the one Johnson just signed but this may set the bar higher. Can the Kings get Drew under contract for less than $6M a season now?
TSN Player Rankings
I always think it’s fun to check out the TSN Player Rankings and see where the Kings are at in the standings. At the NHL level it’s not too exciting- Quick is 12th overall (3rd among goalies), Kopitar 21st (8th among centers), Brown 54th (11th among right wings), Doughty 63rd (14th among defensemen), Johnson 85th (18th among d-men), Stoll 119th (28th among centers), and Smyth 135th (28th among left wings). And Scott Parse is actually 17th among non-qualifiers.
It’s when you look at the minors and juniors that things get interesting. In the WHL Kings prospect Linden Vey is 2nd overall (and 1st among position players) with a ranking of 92.57 and Jordan Weal is 24th (21st excluding goalies) with an 80.24. In fact, excluding goalies, Vey has the 3rd best ranking of all junior players, .04 behind the Q’s Jonathan Huberdeau of St. John who is in 2nd. First overall among all junior skaters and 2nd overall behind a WHL goalie (Darcy Kuemper of Red Deer, wose rights are owned by the Wild) is Tyler Toffoli of the OHL’s Ottawa squad with a ridiculous 95.84 (to put that in perspective, Crosby tops the NHL with a 96.17). Robbie Czarnik is listd as 16th in the OHL with an 83.52.
In the AHL the Kings also have Voinov and Moller at 24th and 26th respectively. I was a little surprised that Martin Jones is nowhere to be seen on the AHL players list though considering that he is 19-6-1 this season with a 2.18 GAA and .929 save percentage.
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