-- we can still win if our rivals lose. Here are 14 big games between now and then.
- STL @ TBL (Sunday)
- EDM @ NSH (Monday)
- CHI @ CGY
- COL @ PHX
- SJS @ WAS (Tuesday)
- STL @ FLA
- CBJ @ PIT
- SJS @ CBJ (Wednesday)
- NSH @ DET
- COL @ MIN
- PHX @ DAL
- OTT @ CGY
- CHI @ EDM
- ANA @ VAN
- LAK @ PIT (Thursday)
Now, let's play a thought experiment. If everything goes exactly right (from the Kings' point of view) with the above-mentioned games, the standings on Friday morning, will look like this:
[THESE STANDINGS ARE NOT TODAY'S STANDINGS; DON'T BE FOOLED]
4th place. Very nice.
However, if everything goes exactly wrong, the Kings lose, and all our rivals win (and when they don't win they get loser points), the standings on Friday will look like this:
Ew. 10th. And a gap starting to form between us and the 5th-8th seeds. Obviously, what happens is likely to fall within the two extremes. But still. One loss has the potential to drop you six spots.
Now, these are the real standings. As of this minute:
- The Kings are in 8th.
- The Kings are 3 points out of 4th.
- The Kings are 3 or 4 points out of 12th, depending on how you look at it (PTS, points-blown, W%).
- The Kings are on pace for 93 points.
- According to Sportsclubstats, in the 100,000,000 simulations they've run of the season, 93 points is good enough for the Kings to make the playoffs 86.5% of the time.
- At 94 points (which is where they'll be if they win on Thursday), the odds go up to 95.7%.
- The Ducks have played more games than everyone else. So their two point lead over the Kings is illusory.
- At this point, the teams in the blue box (4th-12th) are still so close that anyone can still make it or blow it.
- Anyone who slumps (worse than .534 from here on) is out. And better than .587 (if you're the Kings) and you're in. In that sense, everyone is master of his own fate.
- Oh yeah. I switched the games-played column (GP) to games-remaining (GR). I kept having to make the calculation in my head anyway.