Saturday: The Real Standings

Q NHL   PTS W% PRJ PB +/- TO 95 GR W! R:W L OT:W L SO:W L
1 1 VAN 97 0.7029 115.3 41 16 n/a 13 40 37 16 3 4 4 5
2 2 DET 88 0.6471 106.1 48 9 2-9-3 14 36 28 20 8 5 4 3
3 3 SJS 85 0.6250 102.5 51 6 4-8-2 14 34 29 22 5 4 5 3
4 4 DAL 82 0.6029 98.9 54 3 5-6-3 14 32 27 23 5 3 5 5
5 5 CHI 81 0.5956 97.7 55 2 6-6-2 14 32 30 24 2 2 5 5
6 6 LAK 81 0.5956 97.7 55 2 6-6-2 14 31 30 25 1 3 7 2
7 7 PHX 81 0.5870 96.3 57 0 6-5-2 13 31 29 23 2 7 4 4
8 9 ANA 79 0.5809 95.3 57 0 7-5-2 14 33 27 26 6 3 4 2
9 8 CGY 81 0.5786 94.9 59 -2 6-4-2 12 29 27 25 2 3 7 6
10 10 NAS 78 0.5735 94.1 58 -1 7-4-3 14 28 28 24 0 6 6 4
11 11 MIN 77 0.5580 91.5 61 -4 8-3-2 13 33 28 27 5 2 2 5
12 12 CBJ 71 0.5299 86.9 63 -6 11-2-2 15 27 23 27 4 4 4 5
13 13 STL 71 0.5221 85.6 65 -8 11-1-2 14 27 24 28 3 4 4 5
14 14 COL 60 0.4478 73.4 74 -17 n/a 15 23 18 33 5 7 3 1
15 15 EDM 55 0.3986 65.4 83 -26 n/a 13 21 19 37 2 2 2 7

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY: Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong). PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. PB is points-blown. +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. TO 95 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. GR is games-remaining. W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). R, OT and SO are regulation, over-time and shoot-out,  and W and L after each indicates wins and losses for each of those three categories (e.g. R:W is regulation wins, OT:W is over-time wins, etc.). 

Some observations:

  • One official point separates 4th from 8th.
  • Two official points separate 9th from 11th.
  • Eight official points separate 3rd from 11th. 
  • The Kings have pulled even with PHX in tie-breaker wins, but they are still one win behind DAL and CHI, and two behind MIN and ANA. They need to close that ground. Someone is going to get screwed on the tie-breakers, and I don't want it to be us. 
  • In goal-differential, the Kings are in pretty good shape (+24), but are behind Chicago (+34) and only just slightly ahead of San Jose (+18), Calgary (+12) and Nashville (+14). 
  • Normally, I wouldn't worry about the Chicago point-differential, since Chicago beats us in head-to-head points. But there's a reasonable chance of a three or even four-way tie, in which case the head-to-head tiebreaker becomes "head-to-head-to-head", or, points earned in games played "among" the tied teams. I haven't even begun to look at the Kings' record against pairs of teams (in a three way tie, for example, you would basically be looking at a mini-league in which Team A's games against Team B and C are compared to Team B's against A and C, etc.), but I imagine there are surprises. 
  • My point about goal-differential is, every goal counts. Every chance a team has to drive up the score counts. The old way of thinking -- that's, for example, it's poor sportsmanship to put out your best players on a power play when you're already ahead by five goals -- doesn't apply anymore. Unless you're Vancouver.
And here's the significant middle of the West, 4-11:
Q NHL   PTS W% PRJ PB +/- TO 95 GR W!
4 4 DAL 82 0.6029 98.9 54 3 5-6-3 14 32
5 5 CHI 81 0.5956 97.7 55 2 6-6-2 14 32
6 6 LAK 81 0.5956 97.7 55 2 6-6-2 14 31
7 7 PHX 81 0.5870 96.3 57 0 6-5-2 13 31
8 9 ANA 79 0.5809 95.3 57 0 7-5-2 14 33
9 8 CGY 81 0.5786 94.9 59 -2 6-4-2 12 29
10 10 NAS 78 0.5735 94.1 58 -1 7-4-3 14 28
11 11 MIN 77 0.5580 91.5 61 -4 8-3-2 13 33
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