Wednesday: The Good, The Bad, The Real Standings

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 28: Dustin Brown #23 of the Los Angeles Kings stands on the ice in the game with the Detroit Red Wings at Staples Center on February 28, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. The Red Wings won 7-4. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Last Night's Results

The Good: STL lost, PHX lost, NAS half-lost, CBJ half-lost.

The Bad: CGY won, DAL won, SJS won.

The silver lining: SJS won in a shoot-out, which doesn't count in the tie-breaker wins column. 

Tonight's Meaningful Games

MIN @ NYI - go Moulson.

CGY @ CHI - go regulation.

DET @ ANA - go Wings.

Now, the updated standings:


Q NHL   PTS W% PRJ PB +/- TO 95 GR W! R:W L OT:W L SO:W L
1 1 VAN 89 0.6953 114.0 39 15 2-14-2 18 37 35 15 2 4 3 5
2 2 DET 84 0.6667 109.3 42 12 4-12-3 19 35 28 18 7 4 4 2
3 3 SJS 80 0.6250 102.5 48 6 6-9-3 18 32 28 21 4 4 5 2
4 6 DAL 74 0.5873 96.3 52 2 9-7-3 19 29 25 23 4 2 5 4
5 7 CHI 74 0.5873 96.3 52 2 9-7-3 19 29 27 23 2 2 5 4
6 8 LAK 74 0.5873 96.3 52 2 9-7-3 19 28 27 24 1 2 7 2
7 4 PHX 76 0.5846 95.9 54 0 8-6-3 17 30 28 22 2 6 3 4
8 10 MIN 72 0.5714 93.7 54 0 10-6-3 19 31 26 24 5 1 2 5
9 5 CGY 75 0.5769 94.6 55 -1 9-6-2 17 27 25 23 2 3 6 6
10 9 NAS 73 0.5703 93.5 55 -1 10-6-2 18 26 26 23 0 5 6 4
11 11 ANA 71 0.5635 92.4 55 -1 11-6-2 19 29 26 25 3 3 4 2
12 12 CBJ 69 0.5565 91.3 55 -1 12-6-2 20 27 23 24 4 3 4 4
13 13 STL 65 0.5159 84.6 61 -7 14-3-2 19 25 23 26 2 4 3 5
14 14 COL 60 0.4688 76.9 68 -14 n/a 18 23 18 30 5 7 3 1
15 15 EDM 50 0.3906 64.1 78 -24 n/a 18 19 17 35 2 1 2 7

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY: Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM. PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. PB is points-blown. +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. TO 95 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. GR is games-remaining. W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). R, OT and SO are regulation, over-time and shoot-out,  and W and L after each indicates wins and losses for each of those three categories (e.g. R:W is regulation wins, OT:W is over-time wins, etc.). 

Some observations:

  • The bulk of the log-jam is 4th-12th. 
  • Three points-blown separate 4th from 12th. 
  • COL is out. Can't get to 95. (Yes, I know they're not mathematically eliminated; but the point is: if they never lose again, it will still -- at best -- be a crap shoot whether they get in or not; therefore, they're out.)
  • STL is hanging by a thread.
  • SJS is oh so slightly separating itself from the others. 
  • PHX and CGY are much worse off than they appear in the official standings. 
  • MIN, DAL and LAK are marginally better off than they appear in the official standings. 
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