Penner Trade, Pt 1: What will that 1st Round Pick get you?
by Quisp on Mar 2, 2011 8:23 PM PST
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PrintThere has been some talk in the puckosphere about how the Kings gave up too much in the Dustin Penner trade. One aspect of this opinion stuck out for me, and that's the idea that it's not Colten Teubert, but the 1st round draft pick, that was "too much." That of course depends on what the Oilers do with the pick. As an exercise, I decided to look at Edmonton's draft history regarding picks in the 14th-to-30th over-all range. Here they are:
Number in parentheses after player's name is career games played.
- 2008 (22nd overall) - Jordan Eberle (51)
- 2007 (15th overall) - Alex Plante (4)
- 2005 (21st) - Riley Nash (0)
- 2005 (25th) - Andrew Cogliano (310)
- 2004 (14th) - Devan Dubnyk (44)
- 2004 (25th) - Rob Schremp (97)
- 2003 (22nd) - Marc-Antoine Pouliot (179)
- 2002 (15th) - Jesse Niinimaki (0)
- 2000 (17th) - Alexei Mikhnov (2)
- 1997 (14th) - Michel Riesen (12)
- 1996 (19th) - Matthieu Descoteaux (5)
- 1993 (16th) - Nick Stajduhar (2)
- 1991 (20th) - Martin Rucinsky (961)
- 1990 (17th) - Scott Allison (0)
- 1989 (15th) - Jason Soules (0)
- 1988 (19th) - Francois Leroux (249)
- 1987 (21st) - Peter Soberlak (0)
- 1986 (21st) - Kim Issel (4)
- 1985 (20th) - Scott Metcalfe (19)
- 1984 (21st) - Selmar Odelein (18)
- 1983 (19th) - Jeff Beukeboom (804)
- 1982 (20th) - Jim Playfair (21)
- 1981 (29th) - Todd Strueby (5)
- 1979 (21st) - Kevin Lowe (1254)
I put the good picks in italics. There are five of them. I count 13 of 17 picks pre-2003 in which the prospect played between 0 and 21 career games. So we'll call it 5 out of 24, or a 21% chance (historically) of getting a really good NHL player.
And, for good measure, here are the rest of the Oilers' first round picks (1st through 13th overall):
- 2010 (1st) - Taylor Hall (64)
- 2009 (10th) - Magnus Paajarvi (62)
- 2007 (6th) - Sam Gagner (287)
- 2001 (13th) - Ales Hemsky (490)
- 1999 (13th) - Jani Rita (66)
- 1998 (13th) - Michael Henrich (0)
- 1996 (6th) - Boyd Devereaux (627)
- 1995 (6th) - Steve Kelly (149)
- 1994 (4th) - Jason Bonsignore (79)
- 1994 (6th) - Ryan Smyth (1050)
- 1993 (7th) - Jason Arnott (1162)
- 1992 (13th) - Joe Hulbig (55)
- 1991 (12th) - Tyler Wright (613)
- 1981 (8th) - Grant Fuhr (868)
- 1980 (6th) - Paul Coffey (1409)
That's 10 out of 15, or 67%, for the Oilers when picking in the top 13. That's three times better than they did with the 14th-30th pick.
Slightly off topic, but I would just like to stop and marvel at the following draft record (draft round in parentheses):
- 1979 - Kevin Lowe (1), Mark Messier (3), Glenn Anderson (4).
- 1980 - Paul Coffey (1), Jari Kurri (4), Andy Moog (7)
- 1981 - Grant Fuhr (1), Steve Smith (6)
- 1982 - :(
- 1983 - Jeff Boukeboom (1), Esa Tikkanen (4)
- 1984 - :(
- 1985 - Kelly Buchberger (9)
I guess the main thing that caught my eye was that their first three picks in their first NHL draft were Lowe, Messier and Anderson.
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absolutely incredible drafting and signing. explains the 5 cups
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Mar 2, 2011 11:40 PM PST up reply actions
Oops.
Regardless, all that WTFing still applies.
by 88fingerslukee on Mar 3, 2011 6:52 AM PST up reply actions
To be fair, their scouting has improved much over the last few years....
Stu MacGregor is their head of scouting now and he has started to clean up the mess Kevin Prendergast and Barry Fraser had made through the 90s and the early part of this decade. Many scouts have said MacGregor’s performance in last year’s draft was the best they’d seen in years, or ever.
So they have a better chance at getting an actual player with that pick (and even the conditional one.) It’s still a good trade for both teams though.
Giv'r
And I don't mean to single out EDM; I just used their draft history because they were our trading partner and it was convenient
I wouldnt expect any other team to do better. the draft, all things being equal, is a crap shoot. That’s my point. if i have a point.
Wait till this year.
True enough.
I just thought you were trying to assess what they got in return for Penner. The way I look at it, even if they do draft two good players and Teubert develops into a dependable NHLer, good for them. As long as Penner enjoys some kind of success in LA, then we can come away from this deal happy. We had a need and addressed it and should be a better team for it. You have to give up to get, as everyone was saying after the Kaberle deal.
Giv'r
by DontDoughtDrew on Mar 2, 2011 11:53 PM PST up reply actions
I agree. The trade is a win-win.
Wait till this year.
by Quisp on Mar 3, 2011 7:19 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Many scouts have said MacGregor’s performance in last year’s draft was the best they’d seen in years, or ever.
They were able to tell that less than a season after the draft?
Haha maybe a bit of an exaggeration, but I have heard scouts marvel at what he did. And at this stage nearly every player he has drafted seems to be progressing steadily. Lowetide has mentioned this multiple times in his blog and on Oilers Nation and MacGregor has already earned the nickname “MBS” (Magnificent Bastard Stu)
Giv'r
by DontDoughtDrew on Mar 3, 2011 7:25 PM PST up reply actions
When people look back on this trade 5 or 10 years from now, I think it will be too easy to let hindsight do all the talking: What numbers did Penner put up as a King? Who did Edmonton actually draft, and what did they do? It should not be forgotten that the Kings gave up assets they had in surplus — young, developing talent, and the chance to acquire more young, developing talent — and that Edmonton acquired the possibility of developing three useful player in exchange for one definitely useful player. Given the realities of the moment (as opposed to what might reality might be years from now), it’s a deal that makes sense for both teams.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
by DougX on Mar 2, 2011 10:48 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
well said
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Mar 2, 2011 11:41 PM PST up reply actions
I’m really suprised that noone has mentioned what the guys over at The Copper and Blue think this was a pretty terrible trade (from the Oilers perspective).
I kinda noticed that. There seemed to be a strong body of opinion there before the trade that both Penner and Hemsky could be kept as part of the rebuild, so that probably has something to do with it. It’s a reasonable point of view, but debatable.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Agree. I did and truly enjoyed their comments. Can’t say a lot of them are real happy … they see the potential value- but know it’s really NO guarantee.
Sig-na...ture
As a small market team if they shift to drafting and build now overall costs will drop and they may end up with a young, affordable and talented team in a small market. It only took the Kings about three years.
The path they were on was a dead end.
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