Tuesday Lunch: The Good, The Bad, The Real Standings

Sunday's Results

The Good: PHX lost, CBJ lost, MIN lost, CGY half-lost.

The Bad: ANA won (3pt game, boo!), CHI won. 

Last Night's Results

The Good: LAK won, CGY half-lost.

The Bad: CGY half-won.

Tonight's Games

EDM @ NAS -- Go Oil.

STL @ PHX -- Go Blues. 

Tomorrow's Games

FLA @ CHI -- Go Fla.

ANA @ DAL -- Ooh. If only both teams could lose. Well, solely because I want the most possible distance between us and the Ducks by the time we get to that home-and-home to end the season: Go Stars.

CGY @ SJS -- Go Sharks, in regulation. 

Now, the updated standings:

Q NHL   PTS W% PRJ LSF PB +/- TO 96 GR W! SS SSGR GD
1 1 VAN 103 0.7055 115.7 103 43 16 n/a 9 43 1 1 66
2 2 DET 95 0.6507 106.7 102 51 8 0-8-1 9 39 3 LAK 28
3 3 SJS 92 0.6301 103.3 113 54 5 2-7-0 9 37 -1 2 20
4 5 LAK 88 0.6027 98.8 101 58 1 4-5-0 9 33 n/a n/a 22
5 6 CHI 86 0.5972 97.9 112 58 1 5-5-0 10 34 -8 CHI 32
6 4 PHX 89 0.6014 98.6 107 59 0 3-4-1 8 35 -2 1 6
7 8 ANA 85 0.5903 96.8 89 59 0 5-4-1 10 36 1 2 -4
8 9 DAL 85 0.5903 96.8 88 59 0 5-4-1 10 33 3 LAK 1
9 7 NAS 86 0.5890 96.6 100 60 -1 5-4-0 9 32 4 LAK 18
10 10 CGY 85 0.5667 92.9 90 65 -6 5-1-1 7 30 2 LAK 11
11 11 MIN 78 0.5342 87.6 84 68 -9 9-0-0 9 33 1 LAK -19
12 12 CBJ 76 0.5278 86.6 79 68 -9 10-0-0 10 29 3 LAK -23
13 13 STL 73 0.5069 83.1 90 71 -12 n/a 10 28 -8 STL -13
14 14 COL 62 0.4366 71.6 95 80 -21 n/a 11 23 6 LAK -52
15 15 EDM 56 0.3889 63.8 62 88 -29 n/a 10 21 5 LAK -62

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY: Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong). PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. LSF is last season's final point total. PB is points-blown. +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. TO 96 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. GR is games-remaining. W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). SS and SSGR are season series against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. that team’s points-earned) and games remaining (team  name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss. GD is goal--differential. 

Observations:

  • Calgary is on the cusp of elimination. Not mathematical elimination, since they can still win out and end up with 99 points. But even the 5-1-1 needed to get to 96 points is unlikely. 
  • That leaves, really, six teams fighting for five spots. 
  • Those six -- LAK, CHI, PHX, ANA, DAL, NAS -- are separated by two points-blown and four official points (Phoenix's extra game played is what's throwing the official numbers off). 
  • Five of those teams (everyone but Nashville) are separated by a single point-blown. 
  • The Kings have won their season series against DAL, NAS and CGY, lost to CHI, with ANA and PHX still up for grabs. Yay.
  • This might not matter, since the wins tie-breaker (W!) comes first, and the Kings are three behind ANA, two behind PHX and one behind CHI in W!. 
  • In W!, the Kings are even with DAL, one ahead of NAS and three ahead of CGY. 
  • These last two bullets make winning in regulation and/or OT kind of important. 
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