Why, Drew, Why? Actually, I Think I Know...
by Quisp on Mar 8, 2011 2:28 PM PST
in Game Recaps
Email
Print
The Kings had a power play in the 3rd period of last night's game, with a chance to go up by two goals. But instead -- as you know -- Drew Doughty made an ill-advised flip pass that was intercepted by Jamie Benn and converted into a short-handed (breakaway) goal. Almost as troubling, earlier in the shift, Doughty misread the play in the offensive zone, leading to turnover and a short-handed 2-on-1 against. I'm not singling Doughty out to blame him for last night's loss. He's certainly entitled to his fair share of the blame, but by no means all of it.
What I would like to know is, what was going on during that shift? The two mistakes I just described, on a single power-play, during a critical time, of a critical game, against our closest rival in the standings (though there are several candidates for that title). What is the differential diagnosis?
1. Drew Doughty is an idiot.
Since Doughty's hockey sense is his main superpower, I'm going to rule this one out.
2. Drew Doughty has brain damage from his early-season concussion, which has resulted in lapses of judgment and, more generally, explains his sub-par season.
Sub-par? Doughty's numbers:
- Points per 60: Last season, 1.10; this season, 1.09. Verdict: THE SAME.
- +-/60: Last season, 0.76; this season, 0.76. Verdict: THE SAME.
- Relative Corsi (+- of shot "events" relative to team): 5.5; this season, 8.8. Verdict: MUCH IMPROVEMENT.
- Team shooting % when he's on the ice: last season, 8.92; this season, 10.04. Verdict: IMPROVEMENT.
- Team save % when he's on the ice: last season, .921; this season, .914. Verdict: slightly worse.
- PDO (combined SH% and SV%): last season,1010; this season, 1014. Verdict: THE SAME.
- Offensive zone starts (this is a measure of the coach's trust; the higher the number, the less likely the coach puts you out for defensive zone draws): last season, 56.2%; this season, 54.2%. Verdict: MORE TRUST.
- O zone finishes (where the face-off ends up when he's on the ice): last season, 49.7%; this season, 53.4%. Verdict: MUCH IMPROVEMENT.
- Penalties taken: last season 0.8 per 60; this season, 1.0 per 60. Verdict: slightly worse.
- Penalties drawn: last season, 0.7 per 60; this season, 0.7. Verdict: THE SAME.
- Last season QUALCOMP .024; this season, QUALCOMP .025. Verdict: THE SAME.
- Last season, QUALTEAM .096; this season, QUALTEAM .024. Verdict: WTF!
Verdict: HE'S NOT HAVING A SUB-PAR SEASON. He's being trusted more to play a more defensive role and is playing with significantly worse teammates. And the only negative effect of this...is...well, every eleventh game he takes an extra penalty...and...he's also on the ice for an additional goal-against for every 125 shots-against, or about every eight or nine games.
But since his +-/60 is the same as last year, his offense is, by definition, exactly off-setting any additional goals-against. And since overall team defense is much better this year than last, a fair conclusion would be that Doughty is playing with worse linemates, allowing better teammates to play when he's not on the ice, which reduces the goals against of the rest of the team (and this is borne out by Doughty's GAOFF/60, which was 2.34 last year and 2.06 this year). Murray is giving Doughty a tougher assignment, thus spreading out the defensive talent, and the result is improved team defense with virtually no discernible negative impact on Doughty's numbers.
3. The power play sucks and Doughty was trying to do too much.
There is plenty of frustration to go around regarding the Kings' power play. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that (1) their numbers are in the bottom third of the league, (2) they appear to be standing around a lot, (3) fans and bloggers and journalists and message-board back-seat drivers have been harping on it for a couple of years now (even last season, when the power play was good). The result is, I think, that the power play "problem" has been imbued with supernatural gravity. I read a lot of what's written about the Kings, including fans' comments, and the general attitude seems to be that the Kings power-play is a momentum-killer and its impotence is singularly responsible for a great many losses, last night being one.
I mention this because I think it's become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy; I think the players are aware of it; and the result is that Doughty is trying -- for example, on that last power play -- to take matters into his own hands. He's trying by force of will to make the power-play work.
The problem is, a successful power-play doesn't succeed by forcing it to. If anything, it's the opposite. Power-plays are zen. If you are impatient, the only thing you will force is mistakes. Yours.
And that's what I think happened last night. Doughty's mistake was in trying to go off-map. Because, for whatever reason, the power-play is bi-polar and we're in a depressed phase of the cycle. Undoubtedly, Murray will counsel Drew to play with patience, within the system. This is likely to be as infuriating to the players as it is to the fans, since it sounds so much like an excuse for a failing system. The thing is, the power play "system" might well be failing, but that's incidental: even the mythical perfect power-play requires patience. All systems fail when you start doing whatever you want because you've decided the system doesn't work.
(Even if it really doesn't work.)
One More Thing
I think people have assigned too much blame to the power-play. The Kings' PP is operating at 16.8%. That's in the bottom third (19th, actually). Last year, it was at 20.8%, which was in the top third (7th overall). Both seasons, the top team was at 25%. The difference between last year's (good) and this year's (bad) power-play is 4%. Pretend the Kings were playing at last year's level. That would net them 9 extra power-play goals. Microstat geniuses (A peek behind the curtain: how do numbers get analyzed? - Broad Street Hockey) have quantified the value of an NHL goal at 1/3 of a point in the standings. Therefore, those nine goals translate to 3 additional points. Which would put us at 80 points, 5th place, instead of our current 77 points, 8th place.
That would be nice. But there are lots of ways to lament games we've frittered away. You could, for example, look at the difference between the output of Michal Handzus, Wayne Simmonds and Alex Frolov last year (20+16+19=55 goals), and Handzus, Simmonds and Alexei Ponikarovsky this year (9+12+4=25 goals, in 66 games, which prorates to only 31 goals over 82 games).
That's a shortfall of 24 goals, or 8 standings points according to the microstat conversion rate.
I count 18 games in which the Kings lost and the PP was shut-out. I'm going to make the (safe) assumption that those losses correspond to 18 comments sections in which fans cursed the Kings power-play as the bane of their various existences. I feel I've read every single one of those threads, and every other one going back several years, including last year, when the PP was at nearly 21%. Notice, though, that had the Kings gotten a PP goal in each of those games -- thus shutting everyone up (though not really) -- their rate would have been at around 25.8%, which would have been #1 in the league.
The Kings have many good players, but I see no reason to expect or require them to have the #1 power play in the NHL.
45 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Awesome
So what you’re saying is really it’s all Simmonds’ fault.
Reason #4
Jamie Benn made a great play. Well, actually, two. He knocked Doughty’s fluttering pass out of the air with the shaft of his stick.
Off on his own, he then fooled Bernier and tucked it between the pads. Two great plays.
Benn’s move was high risk- if he doesn’t get the puck, the Stars are in a tough position, with Benn out of the play. He does make it, and well, you know the story.
Sometimes all the stats in the world don’t matter- make the play and you’re gold.
Me? I tip my hat to Benn’s two remarkable plays on that shift. Too bad for us, but stuff happens.
Yeah, from an opposing team's viewpoint I'd like to think that Benn just made an amazing play.
More than Drew messed it up anyway.
I wouldn’t stress over what Drew did there. Seemed like some bad luck on his part mixed in with the awesome-ness that is Jamie Benn. :)
Defending Big D: A Dallas Stars blog on SBN: easy to use, free to join.
GameTimeArt.net: A personal blog not on SBN that's just free and easy.
@GameTimeArt: Offending and/or boring sports fans one tweet at a time!
#KeepRichardsInDallas
by Art Middleton on Mar 8, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
Benn did play a pretty good game last night, I'll give him that
But I do think Drew was trying too hard. Taking too much onto himself. In any sport, that’s a recipe for spectacularly bad stuff happening.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
No mirage...
Benn did the same thing during the AHL playoffs last year to Hershey in the Calder Cup Finals. Got the AHL Stars two wins…
Good player!
Why don’t the Kings have one like him???
I agree: Benn made more of a good play than Doughty made a bad play.
Knocking the puck out of the air with the shaft of your stick is part luck and part skill. I say give him credit.
I also think Doughty (and to a slightly lesser extent, Johnson) is trying to do more—I wouldn’t say too much, though—to create more because we don’t have enough guys who can skate the puck up the ice. I think that Johnson’s complaints, that were partially publically aired, had an effect on the coaches because immediately thereafter you saw the two of them skating the puck up more often and getting more involved in the offensive zone.
Nope, stupid play by Doughty. If you’re holding a lead with a PP, why give Benn the opportunity to make a good play?
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
by Nut on Mar 8, 2011 5:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep, bad move by Doughty, no question in my mind.
However, some people are suggesting that he be benched, and tend to let the anger at his mistakes overwhelm their memories of all the other plays he’s made. We could not afford to lose one of our most effective players at this point in the season. For most of the year, his rel. Corsi has been even higher (9-10 range). It’s just like what Stoll said on HNiC: he helps control the play.
Another factor to consider is that he’s 5th in the NHL for TOI/game (25:37). Every defenseman ahead of him (Boyle, Keith, Bouwmeester, Chara) is far more seasoned and experienced. They’re putting a lot on him but he’s still improving.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
some people are suggesting that he be benched
That’s ridiculous.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
by Nut on Mar 9, 2011 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
However, some people are suggesting that he be benched, and tend to let the anger at his mistakes overwhelm their memories of all the other plays he’s made.
These people think life is a movie. It is not.
I thought it was Kung Fu Panda II: The Adventures of Penne and Doughnut.
It’s one thing to say “Since Doughty is Doughty, he should make faster progress toward the Norris” and quite another to say that he’s been terrible, or not even as good as Jack Johnson. If you’re only going by point totals, OK — and even now he’s not that far behind. By any other measure, no. Things get extreme.
We’re all carrying around our own biases; that’s why re-examining our beliefs can be useful. This is a really good article on the limits of observation. We’re kind of hard-wired to craft narratives out of events.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
He’s not lazy, he just has dashing good looks.
Nobody ever accused Mike Ricci of being lazy. Dashing is the Anti-Ricci.
by Passemoilapuck on Mar 8, 2011 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
Patient Urgency
The ramped up urgency on that fateful PP (and the one before it) is what I like to see. And to your point, it was in that moment of “going for it” (trying to do too much) that he screwed the pooch. It’s when there’s 1 minute left in the game and you’re down by a goal that “super-focus, urgent” (yet patient) play can create magic on the ice. It’s not an easy balance, as the Kings have experienced this year. But they can get it back at any time if they follow this formula…
Play the Power Play like it’s do-or-die every time, with intense urgency and focus, yet pull back when you know you’re about to take a “Doughty” right there on the ice. If they do that, the PP will catch fire and the season will be saved.
p.s. “too much blame” on the PP this year depends on how blame is defined. I think you made the case for it being the main problem in the standings. Zus usually scores a number of PP goals if I recall correctly and that right there could be the issue. Simmonds has growing pains and Poni ain’t no Froni (and Poni doesn’t play the PP). So all around, the PP is as good a reason why the Kings are living on the razor’s edge as any.
Regardless, Doughty fucked up (trying to do too much). Then Jack Johnson fucked up in OT. I agree the power play is faulting because they think it’s going to. You can see when Kopitar and Doughty shoot that they are afraid it’s going to be blocked (kinda the inverse of Nik Lidstrom, or even Alec Martinez).
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
From a Kings and Dodgers fan point of view
It’s always Matt Kemp’s fault….
Trade deadline- Like watching paint dry
"Have I forgotten to fire anybody?" -Bill Parcells
It’s probably as simple as attitude. In a recent post-game interview (Wings I think,) Brown was asked what made the KIngs PK so good. Brown replied “Attitude.” The guys believe they are good.
The same holds for the PP. It’s in their heads, they don’t have the Mojo, so to speak.
The team needs some success to break out of this PP slump. Hopefully they’ll find it on the road.
Psychological death spiral
The last couple of games, I’ve sensed that the Kings lack any sort of confidence when they’re out on the PP. They’re playing scared. like they just know a critical fuck-up is right around the corner. And I don’t think it has anything to do with the system or the coaching, so much as all they can envision right now is failure. It’s attitude, which affects execution.
So I think you’re right. A little success, even if it’s just dumb luck, is what will get them out of this death spiral.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Why not keep forward lines intact for the PP?
I thought that the Penner/Kopitar/Williams line played fairly well 5v5 last night. Why not keep them together on the PP? Maybe mix the second unit but I would like to see Williams out there more, especially with Kopitar.
Also, Martinez seems to do a decent job getting shots through quickly. He doesn’t play around with it at the point nearly as much as Johnson and Doughty.
Martinez seems to do a decent job getting shots through quickly. He doesn’t play around with it at the point nearly as much as Johnson and Doughty.
He also doesn’t try to touch the rafters with his stick when he takes a slap shot.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Chalk it up to being young
And that’s not just on Doughty but on Bernier too and some of the other kids. On the PP I noticed one time where our first unit w/ Kopi couldn’t seem to deal w/ Dallas’ aggressive play. Then the next unit came out with Stoll and Smyth and the two of them made what seemed like 5 or 6 simple passes back to each other. It was kind of perplexing and I briefly wondered when were they going to share the puck or take a shot. But then I noticed it kind of settled everything down. It isolated one Dallas defender as the lone guy trying to go back and forth between them while the other Dallas guys kind of watched. Then the other Kings got into position and were able to receive passes.
The last couple games Doughty has really come alive but he knows to know when to pick his momemts better.
great thread quisp.... but
I don’t totally agree with you. As you well know, they say that sometimes it’s not about how many saves a goalie makes, but when he makes them.
Well last night I felt that being up one zip and having several pp opportunities plus the 3min major that if they didn’t score it could be trouble. The Stars scored right after that and the game was never the same.
Thats my analogy to the timing of a goalie’s saves.
It to me is not just the wins and losses (I for one have never been saying that) but it is an indication to me that the forwards are limited in terms of their creativity be it on the pp or 5 on 5.
The Power Play is for more than just scoring goals.
With a late lead, the man advantage could be used to pad the lead with a goal. It could also be used to take time off the clock and tire out your opponents with smart, controlled play. Making the goalie make a couple saves wouldn’t hurt either. The Kings haven’t been able to do any of that lately.
The TWO man advantage, however, is for scoring goals. 0-2 in a tie game against Vancouver is unacceptable.
1. Drew Doughty is an idiot.
heheh i got a good chuckle out of the fact that this was even considered.
I blame this on
Canada Post/USPS for not giving me minute by minute updates on the location of the jersey I purchased nearly two weeks ago. Status of “the shipment has left Canada” just doesn’t suffice.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on Mar 9, 2011 6:06 AM PST reply actions
Therefore, those nine goals translate to 3 additional points. Which would put us at 80 points, 5th place, instead of our current 77 points, 8th place.
I can’t tell you how much better I’d feel with three more points in this conference. But I think it’s natural that we fans focus on what’s not working. Our 5v5 scoring is up, our defense and PK have vastly improved, we look around and just want more goals. It’s true that we have a fortunate record in one-goal games (top ten in the league, even) but the Sharks, the Stars, and the Ducks have been even better and more fortunate in those situations than we have. It causes angst.
I have to quote a Quisp classic, because it stuck in my mind: sometimes our power play can look like “something that came out of the wrong end of a sick dog.” I do believe it can get better, though. With Drew as a part of it.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
regarding special teams...
hey quisp, you note how many more pts we could have with a better PP, what about the number of points we have earned as a result of the PK? i mean we have a pretty bad ass pk….that has to offset the pts lost by the pp, which at 3 pts isnt horrible…..imagine if our pk sucked too?
As for DD’s play….i think if you try that play, 9 out of ten times it makes it past benn, so theres that….should DD have just played it smart? sure….does he get his ass chewed in the locker room after the game…he sure had better….
but ill take that from him…high risk high reward…..
honorable mention: JB is awful on breakaways!!!! why do you think he sucks so much balls in shootouts???
if you watch the play again, he lets his stick blade get away from the five hole….and bites on benns first move….if that was quick…it gets stopped…
"It's not illegal. It's frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane."-Alan Garner
but...
JB looks much better to me on redirections and deflections….
just saying take that into account….i think if we dont score in the ot that game still ends as a shootout loss….
"It's not illegal. It's frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane."-Alan Garner
I don't buy this at all.
I was reading the same thing over at LAKi. That’s a conclusion drawn from comparing Quick’s stellar shootout #s this season against Bernier’s two admittedly not good shoot-out appearances this year. But, if we know anything about the shoot-out, it’s that success one year does not predict success the next year, and over time everyone regresses to the mean. Look at career numbers:
Quick: 26 goals allowed on 98 attempts, .735 GAA.
Bernier: 3 goals allowed on 11 attempts, .727 GAA.
And, since Bernier has allowed 3 goals on five attempts this season, subtraction tells us that he was perfect on six attempts before this year.
Wait till this year.
ok...agreed...
but i mean i was using this year as an example…JB has not performed well in the shootouts….
what about the pk thing….cmon dont chop me up for the bernier thing then dont comment on the pp/pk thing…
idk…honestly…when we were up 3-2 i said to my wife…we will be lucky to get to ot…to me it just felt like something bad was going to happen…like the game against col….and using ONLY THIS SEASON FOR COMPARISON….wed lose in a shoot out….just my feeling worth just about bupkiss…..
BTW…Quisp…i read that post about the avg and mean involving JQ and JB….can i get you to do that for me???
except for me in my mens league my GAA is like 5 and a save % of .835….and thats good for 3-4th best!!!! lol
"It's not illegal. It's frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane."-Alan Garner
The numbers do bear this out, but watching actual gameplay you can see Bernier bites more easily on the first move and doesn’t go side to side as well as Quick (and leaves his 5 hole vulnerable when he does), just as Quick moves side to side really well but is susceptible to shots low on his blocker side. I’m sure Bernier will approve but right now Quick is the better shootout goalie (and I would probably put him in the top 5 in the league)
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Jewels From The Crown
Related FanShots on Jewels From The Crown
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
