The Real Standings (Hawks or Stars Edition)

by Quisp on Apr 8, 2011 10:33 PM PDT in Standings

Q	NHL		PTS	W%	PRJ	MAX	LSF	PB	+/-	>9th	GR	W!	SS	SSGR	GD	Qcl
1	1	VAN	115	0.7099	116.4	117	103	47	18		1	49	-1	VAN	76	115
2	2	SJS	103	0.6358	104.3	105	113	59	6		1	42	-2	SJS	33	105
3	3	DET	102	0.6296	103.3	104	102	60	5		1	42	3	LAK	19	100
4	4	NAS	99	0.6111	100.2	101	100	63	2		1	38	4	LAK	27	100
5	5	PHX	99	0.6111	100.2	101	107	63	2		1	38	-1	PHX	7	100
6	6	LAK	98	0.6049	99.2	100	101	64	1		1	36			23	100
7	7	ANA	97	0.5988	98.2	99	89	65	0		1	42	-1	1	2	95
8	8	CHI	97	0.5988	98.2	99	112	65	0	0-0-1	1	38	-8	CHI	34	95
9	9	DAL	95	0.5864	96.2	97	88	67	-2	1-0-0	1	37	5	LAK	-4	95
10	10	CGY	93	0.5741	94.1	95	90	69	-4		1	32	2	LAK	14	95
11	11	STL	85	0.5247	86.0	87	90	77	-12		1	33	-8	STL	4	85
12	12	MIN	84	0.5185	85.0	86	84	78	-13		1	35	1	LAK	-29	85
13	13	CBJ	81	0.5000	82.0	83	79	81	-16		1	29	3	LAK	-42	80
14	14	COL	66	0.4074	66.8	68	95	96	-31		1	23	8	LAK	-62	65
15	15	EDM	61	0.3765	61.8	63	62	101	-36		1	23	7	LAK	-75	60

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY:

Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong).
PRJ is projected point total for 82 games.
LSF is last season's final point total.
MAX is maximum points possible for that team.
PB is points-blown.
+/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
TO 97 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold.
GR is games-remaining.
W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker).
SS and SSGR is season series against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. that team’s points-earned) and games remaining (team name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss.
GD is goal-differential.
Qcl is clustered points, which corrects for variance in games-played and then rounds point totals to the nearest multiple of 5. The idea is to emphasize which teams are bunched together, or, to put it another way, are "more or less tied." It may be useless or annoying. Feel free to ignore.

Observations:

Everything just got a whole lot simpler.
It's down to Dallas or Chicago now. If Dallas wins in regulation or OT (but not in a shoot-out) and Chicago loses (but not in OT or SO) Dallas is 8th and Chicago is done.
If Chicago earns one point, they're in.
If Dallas wins in a shoot-out, they're out.
If Dallas loses or half-loses, they're out.
~~Whoever is in, plays Vancouver.~~
~~As far as seeds 2-7 go,~~ I'll address the various match-up possibilities in the next post.

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Comments

Alright Ducks, you got your gift

We better fucking win tomorrow… I have a feeling one of NSH or PHX (not both) will lose… #5 seed is ok with me…

"A wedding is a funeral where you smell your own flowers" -Eddie Cantor

by angelofdeath on Apr 8, 2011 10:53 PM PDT reply actions

Whoever is in, plays Vancouver.

If Chicago wins and the Kings lose, the Kings are 8th and play Vancouver. If the Kings win tomorrow they are no lower than 6th.

by Garrett79 on Apr 8, 2011 11:04 PM PDT reply actions

yeah, i was just returning to correct that. thanks.

Wait till this year.

by Quisp on Apr 8, 2011 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions

really really really hoping the kings knock the quacks off today to prevent that

by Garrett79 on Apr 9, 2011 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions

DVR that Dallas game if Chicago loses in regulation Sunday!

Aside from the possibility of pulling the goalie in OT for the first time ever and possibly losing the Bettman point by being scored on, can you imagine the potentially hilarious consequences if it goes to the shootout? Dallas won’t care. They may even forfeit and just leave the ice. Who on the team would want to stick around and participate in a road shootout when their season just ended 5 minutes earlier?

Please hockey gods… make it so.

by TonySCV on Apr 8, 2011 11:31 PM PDT reply actions

Also, if Chicago wins and the Ducks lose then the Ducks are 8th. Or if Phoenix and/or Nashville lose and we lose to Ducks in OT or shootout then we really have a mess with a bunch of teams tied. It’s a lot simple now than before tonights’ games, but I think it is still pretty open where all 5 teams actually end up seeded.

by GoKings09 on Apr 8, 2011 11:33 PM PDT reply actions

I just sort of ran through the various possibilities of this weekend’s games, and holy crap! Even with just one game left each, it is an absolute clusterfuck trying to figure out who finishes where. I’m seeing an awful lot of 7th and 8th place finishes for us if we lose and our competitors win.

I guess the bottom line is if the Kings win (they damn well better), they can finish no lower than 6th. Right now, I’d take that. I’d also take three goals in a game. Hey, a guy can dream, right?

by King of Saskatchewan on Apr 9, 2011 12:32 AM PDT reply actions