Another Philly to Philly West trade rumor
by Quisp on May 12, 2011 11:37 AM PDT
in Could Happen
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PrintThe Hockey News -- Rumor Roundup: Flyers Ready to Shuffle the Deck?
[T]he additional year on Michael Leighton's current contract could make Boucher the odd man out of the Flyers’ goalie tandem. Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal offered a suggestion for the Flyers to improve their goaltending: trade center Jeff Carter to the Minnesota Wild for Niklas Backstrom, or to the L.A. Kings in exchange for Jonathan Quick. Matheson pointed out the Wild weren't winning with Backstrom, who will earn $6 million next season, and badly need more offense. The only problem with that theory is trading away Backstrom for Carter leaves the Wild without a quality starting goaltender, meaning they'll be trading one problem for another. Quick has established himself as the Kings starting goalie, but there's a belief he’ll face a serious challenge from backup Jonathan Bernier next season, not to mention speculation Kings management sees Bernier as the future starter. Carter would certainly provide a boost to the Kings’ first line, but GM Dean Lombardi would have to consider the ramifications of taking on Carter’s 11-year, $58 million contract.
Because this was written by Lyle Richardson, I can't dismiss this rumor out of hand. But I would add that (1) I did not know -- and I'm not sure I buy -- that "there's a belief" that Bernier will give Quick a "serious challenge" next year; (2) speculation that Bernier is the goalie of the future is such old news that it's in kindergarten now; (3) the "ramifications" Lombardi would have to consider would include dumping a lot more salary that Quick's $1.8MM; say, another $3-3.5MM worth, as the Kings will be close to the ceiling this year just by signing their RFAs; (4) there is a rumor that won't die about locker-room poison, involving Carter and I forget who else; I barely pay attention to such things. But if there's fire to go with that smoke, I would expect Lombardi, who traded Sean Avery and Mike Cammalleri, and didn't trade for Dany Heatley, to steer clear; (5) the Kings already have a first line center; (6) the Kings have more centers than they know what to do with (Anze Kopitar, Jarret Stoll, Trevor Lewis, Brad Richardson, Andrei Loktionov, Brayden Schenn); it would be weird for Lombardi to tie up the two top-six forward positions for the next several years; (7) it's not really Lombardi's style to destabilize the back-end by suddenly thrusting Jonathan Bernier (who he's brought along very slowly) into the limelight; the Kings' goalie situation is literally the best it's ever been (okay, that Rogie fellow was pretty good, but in terms of tandems...). Why mess with that, especially since Lombardi believes you build a team from the goalie outward?; (8) Jeff Carter isn't injured, is he? Lombardi only goes for players recovering from injury. This is why Zach Parise makes so much more sense...
But what do I know. The trade will probably happen this afternoon.
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Richardson is a respectable source, as sources go. But note his source: It’ an Edmonton writer who seems to be thinking aloud, not reporting. Richardson is just noting that it seems like an interesting idea.
He’s just blue-skying. He implicitly admits that there’s no substance, in that there are no sources in Philly, the Wild or the Kings cited.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Never been a huge Carter fan. Just doesn’t strike me as a solid character guy. And there is no way Lombardi moves Quick and takes on that cap hit.
Giv'r
by DontDoughtDrew on May 12, 2011 11:51 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
But
Is there any chance in holy hell that the Flyers trade Giroux? Maybe they can’t move Carter’s contract— Giroux seems to be the type of player the Kings could benefit from. Course, that could probably be said about every team.
by CrownedRoyal on May 12, 2011 11:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I would prefer Giroux to Carter – but I think Philly does as well. What if the Kings try and sign Flyers UFA Ville Lieno? You’d have to move someone to make room, but I like Lieno as well.
Leino looks good at 800K, but if he wants something in the $3M to $4M range I’d stay clear of him. I think he gets to take advantage of weaker matchups being on a deep team like the Flyers, so if you’re looking for a bona fide top 6 forward there’s a good chance you’ll be disappointed.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on May 12, 2011 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
do what .... say what?
the only one of those guys who would really be worth it is Giroux. he’s a major talent….. and philly knows it. they probably would part with him though….. for bernier, 2 first round picks and maybe kyle clifford….
(in other words, rather untouchable).
I can see DL licking his chops now. Not.
Flyers fan here
Carter is my favorite player, but seriously, there is NO CHANCE the Flyers trade Giroux. NONE. He and JVR are the future.
Carter’s ideal role is as a number 2 center on a team without great wingers, or with a winger who can get him the puck. He’s not the best passer, but he puts the puck in the net. He’s much better as a center than a wing because he can create his shot better.
I really hope this doesn’t happen…IMO Carter is way more valuable than Quick. I’m imagining we’d need a lot more than just Quick, considering Bobrovsky is our “goalie of the future.” We really don’t need a logjam of young goalies if management honestly believes that.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Philly is gonna have to do something. They have a squad capable of winning a cup.
But their goaltenders won’t get them there, and any semi-competent GM knows it. Whether you think DL is a smart GM or not (imo, he is very smart), he is unquestionably thoughtful. He only seems to pull the trigger when it seems like a no-brainer. And Carter for Quick (+ Greene?) is not close to meeting that criteria.
This ain’t gonna happen.
I think they could do much worse in goal in terms of personnel…no fix for when those guys, to start with not better than average, go cold.
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If I reference a lot of stats, just assume I haven't seen anything to contradict or invalidate them.
by red army line on May 15, 2011 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Ilya Bryzgalov?
I am just guessing, obviously, but I woudn’t be surprised to see Philly try to dump salary to go after Ilya Bryzgalov. It seams like a good fit for Ilya and the Flyers. Just throwing it out there haha. I don’t see the Flyers trying to move Carter this soon after signing a huge contract.
Thing is, IF (and it’s a big if) they are having “buyer’s remorse” over the contract Carter’s NMC doesn’t kick in until later this year, so it’s their chance to do it. That being said, I HIGHLY doubt it. You don’t trade a right handed shot that consistently scores 35+ goals and is only 26.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Carter only has a NTC clause. The only Flyers with NMC are Briere and Timmonen.
by flyersphan17 on May 13, 2011 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Check your facts. Hartnell has a NMC. Carter’s new contract, which hasn’t started yet, has a NMC. Richards contract has a NMC in it that kicks in shortly.
Defending Carter until 2021...
NTC
I think Philly would consider trading Jeff only because Carter’s NTC doesn’t kick in until the second year of his deal and then it’s a FULL NTC for 5 years and then becomes a limited one after that. Holmgren has made a lot of mistakes in signing players but his biggest was handing out NTC & NMC like a pediatrician hands out lollipops to his patients.
by flyersphan17 on May 13, 2011 8:33 AM PDT up reply actions
They might not need a major salary dump to get Bryzgalov — depending on exactly how much the cap goes up and exactly how much it takes to get Bryzgalov, they might be able to do something like this:
CAPGEEK.COM CAP CALCULATOR
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Daniel Briere ($6.500m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($1.654m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jeff Carter ($5.272m)
Kris Versteeg ($3.083m) / Mike Richards ($5.750m) / Andreas Nodl ($0.715m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Blair Betts ($0.700m) / Darroll Powe ($0.761m)
Ben Holmstrom ($0.750m)
DEFENSEMEN
Matt Carle ($3.437m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($3.200m) / Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m)
Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.900m)
/ Oskars Bartulis ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($3.000m) / Brian Boucher ($0.900m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $62,400,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,108,738; BONUSES: $975,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $291,262
Bryzgalov makes the most sense to me
But I can also see Nabokov come into play at some point since Philly still may need to dump some salary.
But, but
This will totally crush Rangers fans dreams of trading Gaborik to the Kings for Schenn or Brown or Johnson or…
The 11 years is too ghastly to overlook, but Carter’s been one of the more consistent goal scorers in the league the last couple of seasons. And as was already pointed out, he’s coming from a team with an abundance of centers thus forcing him over to the wing on occasion so he’s got that experience. He scores a lot at ES and isn’t a slouch on the PP and generates a ton of shots. I don’t think it would be the worst thing in the world for you guys to slot him and Koptiar in at 1C and 2C and let Schenn adjust to the game at 3rd line minutes against relatively weaker competition.
But it’s just not as simple as trading a goalie for Carter. Not many 30+ goal scorers that aren’t impending UFAs get traded at all and while everyone knows the Flyers need a goalie for now I’m guessing it would take a lot more than just a goalie to pry away the guy that’s led one of the better Eastern conference teams in goals the past 3 seasons.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on May 12, 2011 12:35 PM PDT reply actions
This is a Philly pipe dream
Jeff Carter has unquestioned ability, however his work ethic (especially in the playoffs) is suspect at best. Add to that an elephantine contract and it doesn’t make much sense for the Kings. The Kings CAN part with a goalie but no need to add a lazy player with a long term contract. Or in otherwords a Dustin Penner with an extra 10 years on his deal!
Carter is a much better scorer than Penner. He’s averaged 36 goals over the past 4 seasons. He was injured for part of the last 2 years in the playoffs although his other playoff seasons have been ok. It’s tough for me as a Rangers fan to promote a Flyer, but he’d definitely be a useful asset for the next several seasons for any team.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on May 12, 2011 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Philly fan here
Yea, the “Carter has no work ethic” comment is just wrong. He is one of the best Flyers’ forwards on defense. He used to kill penalties but we signed Blair Betts and Powe so we could use Carter more often at ES and on the PP. This year a freak collision after the whistle with Myers cost him, but he had two points in three games before the injury, then missed a ton of time, and came back to play limited minutes in limited situations, so you can’t take his points per game as canon. Last year in the playoffs he had two broken feet.
The year before he did have a terrible series against the Pens…but everyone had a bad series against the Pens while they were on their way to the Stanley Cup. Before that his playoff numbers were just fine. I think it’s completely overblown, especially if you value a guy willing to backcheck and play defense to go with his 35+ goals.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Psst, Pardini, You can just scroll down to my comment and say “I agree with all of this” and save yourself a lot of trouble. /grin
Actually Carter played that Pens series with a separated shoulder!
by flyersphan17 on May 13, 2011 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions
re: Dutch71's comments
was gonna add this anyway…. a phily columnist was interviewed on nhl homeice about a week or so ago. he spoke about the above situation. clearly seems there was an issue re: the room and stuff (you can google if you wish…). anyway, while i don’t remember the words used, the ‘feel’ it had re: jeff carter was not wonderful… and that from a guy who follows the team.
i said on laki that i was pretty sure (obviously could be wrong) that paul holmgren would try and fleece the kings getting bernier for carter… and like you say quisp, what are we gonna do w another center?
also w all due respect to myfavbaseball’s comments above, carter may be good, but he’s playing w much more talent in philly. put him on a line centering the remaining kings wings after penner and jw are taken up on kopi’s line… let other teams key on him…. put him in a super defensive oriented system and …. Voila!!! jeff carter magically turned into a 23 goal scorer. Such A Deal!!
There’s always the concern with players coming from good teams had their numbers inflated due to better surrounding talent, but I like his ability to generate shots on goal at a very impressive rate particularly at even strength. At the very least he’s a player that create a decent amount of his own scoring chances, of course playing with better teammates will help him but I’d say he can do fine with a lesser supporting cast. His even strength numbers the past number of seasons suggest he tends to “out generate” top 6 competition. And remember the Atlantic division has been home to some of the stingiest defenses in the league, particularly in net with Lundqvist, Brodeur and MA Fleury.
I look it at that a trade of Bernier or Quick for Carter is a steal for the Kings. At some point Bernier or Quick will make the other redundant. Acquiring a player that’s more than capable of putting 30+ goals a season would help.
by MyFavBaseballSquadron on May 12, 2011 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I look it at that a trade of Bernier or Quick for Carter is a steal for the Kings. At some point Bernier or Quick will make the other redundant. Acquiring a player that’s more than capable of putting 30+ goals a season would help.
Valid points, but to use an expression that some friends of mine are fond of, “Choose wisely, my son.” I have always maintained that Lombardi will want to get as long a look at both Quick and Bernier as he can before he chooses one or the other, because at that point he is making a long-term commitment to a #1 goalie. That’s why neither will be traded this summer.
In addition, it’s key to understand that the Kings’ goaltending is as strong right now as it has ever been, and certainly deeper. The Kings have been in a position before where two young goalies were considered potential #1s, but they were… Bob Janecyk and Daren Eliot. If you view defense as the bedrock of your team (as Lombardi does), you like where you are now, with an excellent starter, an excellent backup, and no worries about what happens if Quick is injured.
Plus, throw in the size of Carter’s contract, and I just don’t see this deal being done.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Eliot and Janecyk! Oh boy, you take me back.
I think you’re right…it’d take an offer that DL couldn’t refuse (is that going to happen at this point?). We can see which one wins out before we deal. At that cap hit there’s no rush — and we’ve invested a lot of time in development already.
Bernier worked out the kinks this year and got used to not playing all the time. After the All-Star break, his numbers were terrific. There’s a very good chance his value will go up.
What makes me happy is that the Goalie Guild thinks highly of both of them. A much better position to be in. :)
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Bernier worked out the kinks this year and got used to not playing all the time. After the All-Star break, his numbers were terrific. There’s a very good chance his value will go up.
True dat. All the more reason why Bernier will not be dealt this summer. His value now is probably not what it will be next summer or later.
I acknowledge that the Kings can’t keep both Quick and Bernier forever, but for now, I love the goaltending situation. Barring an astounding burst of bad injury luck, there is no need to lose sleep over the goaltending. It’s a wonderful — and unfamiliar — feeling for a Kings fan. I think Lombardi sees it similarly, which is why I’d be surprised if he treated Bernier as a surplus asset rather than a core asset.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
The Philly media gets carried away by a lot of things, in my opinion — I’d take the character things with a grain of salt.
Philly could trade for Schneider or Bernier but the big question is how much they really want to. They are the top prospects in goaltending — they’d probably have the starter job in other franchises, and they are considered to have elite upside. OTOH they aren’t starting goalies yet, yadda yadda. But they do have cap hits that fit.
Bobrovsky is their “goalie of the future” but then they go and talk like they need to have a placeholder ASAP. Nabokov? He’s experienced and presumably cheap; he could help Bobrovsky transition. It’s interesting.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
PS if the locker room thing is about Carter and Hartnell — the site that posted that rumor is extremely bogus and posting it was reckless and distasteful. Disgusting, really.
A lot of things are rumored. And a lot of things are frankly made up.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
11 years?
Sheesh, no thanks… Jeff Carter is good, but no thanks…
"If you're looking in my general direction, you're looking the wrong way."
Barca Blaugranes
I have to agree with the 11 years being too much. I doubt DL would sign anyone for that long (maybe Doughty), much less trade for it.
With regards to Quick, it will be interesting to see how many games Bernier is penciled in for at the start of the season. He has shown that he thrives with more time in net and the Kings certainly need to make a decision with who they are going with long-term at some point.
Lombardi specifically mentioned the concern over Quick burning out
which means (if you ask me) he’s not trading bernier and risk going back to an “ersberg is not trusted” situation. jones may be ken dryden, but until he’s played some pro games i don’t think we’re going to see either of those crazy kids (the jons) in another uniform.
Wait till this year.
I guess I’m late to the party, but I’ll chime in with the Philly perspective and see if I can answer some of what came up in the article and the comments.
- Is Carter a locker room poison?
Who really knows with this crap, but the most common off-ice stuff we hear is about him being part of a crew that likes to party with local college girls. And yes, the stuff about Hartnell is a load of crap.
- The Kings have too many centers
So do the Flyers. Carter played wing almost all year this year, and did very well there.
- Jeff Carter isn’t injured, is he?
Yes, yes he is. He had knee ligament damage from a knee-on-knee hit with Myers in the Buffalo series and missed all of the (too-brief) Boston series.
- Comparing Leino to Carter
There’s no comparison here. Leino was the most sheltered player on the Flyers — he had the most offensive zone starts of any forward and faced weaker competition (by Corsi Rel QoC) than any other top-9 forward. Carter, in contrast, actually edged Richards out for much of the year as the Flyers’ heavy lifter — he had the fewest offensive zone starts of anyone who wasn’t on the fourth line and faced the toughest competition.
- Comparing Leino to Giroux
This is the apt comparison — these are the two best choices for team MVP this year. Despite Carter being used in such a heavy defensive role, he was third on the team in Corsi Rel at +7.8 shots per 60, consistently starting in difficult spots and moving the play forwards. Giroux had more middling usage (7th in zone starts, 4th in competition), but had a whopping +14.1 Corsi Rel. Giroux is obviously more of a passer, with the highest primary assist rate on the team by far (1.29/60) and Carter more of a scorer with the second highest goal rate (1.40/60), but they were both great this year.
- Contract status
Yes, it’s a forever contract, but I actually kind of like it. I think at his production, a $5.2M cap hit is a pretty good deal right now — he’s been among the top 10 goal scorers year after year and this year showed some impressive two-way skills. And assuming salaries continue to go up, this may look like a bargain contract in a couple of years. He’s only 26, so he may even play the dang thing out, or at least get to darn near the end of it before his skills decline below the pay level.
- Do the Flyers need a goalie?
I am in the tiny minority on this, but I think Bobrovsky (who posted a .923 even strength save percentage this year) is perfectly adequate and that the cost of a better goalie (in dollars and therefore inevitably players) is greater than the benefit. Geoff Detweiler wrote a great article looking at this today, which you can read here if you’re interested.
- Do the Flyers want a goalie?
Unfortunately, my tiny minority vote does not carry the day here. The Flyers’ owner has come out and said they need better goaltending next year. So I expect something will happen, but I hope it’s relatively minor (letting Leino walk to make room for a $3M goalie) rather than giving up a key piece like Carter.
Hey Eric!
Eric, you forgot to mention, on top of all of it he’s a right handed shot. It’s pretty hard to find a consistent 35-40 goal scorer, but finding one with a right handed shot is even harder.
Defending Carter until 2021...
Good point. I also forgot to mention (though I meant to) that like you, I think the playoff issues are overblown.
Yea I mentioned it above…these past two years aren’t really valuable considering he had two broken feet last year and that injury against Myers was a freak collision that had nothing to do with hockey. It’s always scary when two players who aren’t even looking at one another hit knee on knee…
So, if you go to 2009 you have a terrible (TERRIBLE!) series against Pittsburgh…but Pittsburgh made everyone look bad on their way to the Stanley Cup. So if you want to harp on that series I have no defense for the guy, we needed more from him. Before that he had 11 points in 17 playoff games. He has some flaws, even I can’t deny that, but they’re largely overblown.
He’s like the Mike Schmidt of the Flyers. He’ll never get his due because he does everything so smoothly and it all looks so effortless that people think he’s not trying. Could he use his size more? Not only could he, but he should. Could he pass more? Absolutely. But that’s a little bit of nitpicking. He’s tenacious on defense and can create his own shot with remarkable ease. His shot comes off so fast it’s ridiculous. Even I admit if we have to trade one of them I’d trade Carter before Giroux, but we ain’t trading Giroux so that doesn’t matter.
Defending Carter until 2021...
I think the reporters talk about locker room problems because he’s been more difficult with them since the Hartnell BS and the partying kept getting brought up by them. Even before that he rarely gave more than monosyllabic answers.
by flyersphan17 on May 13, 2011 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions
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