What's Broken (part 4b): Kings should never have traded Mike Cammalleri
by Quisp on May 9, 2011 8:23 PM PDT
in Backseat Driving
Email
Print[This is part 4b of a multi-post analysis of "what ails the Kings." If you haven't read the previous posts, understand that each "part" is an attempt to lay the blame (if there is any blame) in a different place. Part 1 set the table; part 2 blamed the captains; part 3 blamed the coaches; part 4a (and 4b) blamed the GM.]
In this chapter, we're going to pursue the narrative of an "alternate history." In this version of Kings history, in June, 2008, the Kings do not trade Mike Cammalleri to the Calgary Flames.
What's the point?
It occurs to me (because everyone has been talking about it) that the Kings' recent problems come down to the absence of a sniper, a year-long power-play drought and a lack of team speed. Every once in a while you see someone comment that the Kings need Cammalleri's scoring, and I am quick to point out why he was dealt. (1) He wanted so much money that it would have thrown the entire cap structure off, not that season, but years down the road (i.e. now), because all the contracts that followed would use Cammalleri's contract as a benchmark; and (2) instead of the Kings logo tattooed on his ass, he had a self-portrait.
I was strongly in favor of this trade at the time and I still am. If I was mildly disappointed in the return, I also realized that Lombardi was going not going to get top dollar for a player everyone on the planet knew had to be traded. Probably, everyone in Kings-land would have dubbed Lombardi a genius had he selected Tyler Myers with the pick he packaged the Calgary pick (and the Dallas pick from the Norstrom deal) to get. But he traded down and took Colten Teubert, who he flipped (three years later) for Dustin Penner, which is ironic, or at least symmetrical, as we are now (we being me in this exercise) considering what the repercussions of not trading Cammalleri would have been.
With that, let's turn back the clock. It's July 5, 2007, the day that RFA Cammalleri, unhappy with the Kings' reported offer of $2.6MM per season, filed for arbitration, seeking $6MM/year. A month later, the Kings would prevail in arbitration. Cammalleri was awarded $3.1 and $3.6MM for the following two seasons, after which he would be a UFA and free to seek his $6MM. Lombardi traded him a year later to Calgary, and a year after that, Cammalleri signed a five-year deal with Montreal for $6MM per year.
But all that is what really happened. What if this happened instead:
Cammalleri Sets the Benchmark with RFA Contract
- July 5, 2007 -- The Kings and Mike Cammalleri agree on a five year deal, with an annual cap hit of $5MM.
- October, 2007 -- Dustin Brown wants Cammalleri-type money, does not sign an extension, but opts to wait it out.
- April, 2008 -- Brown's season is (as in reality) substantially better than Cammalleri's. He gets his extension at $5MM for five years.
- June, 2008 -- The Kings pick 28th instead of 11th (because they don't trade Cammalleri; which also means Lombardi is not able to trade up to snag Colten Teubert) and they use the pick on Viatcheslav Voynov (instead of using the 32nd pick on VV). The second round pick (32), Lombardi uses to select the best available big tree from the WHL, Travis Hamonic.
- September, 2008 -- Kopitar, like Brown, decides to wait on signing an extension. This adds a certain amount of tension to the already distracting negotiations with Patrick O'Sullivan, who, having had a better season than Cammalleri, believes he too is deserving of a Cammy-sized** deal.
- September, 2008 -- Lombardi, who in this universe doesn't mind* giving Cammalleri $5MM, has no problem giving O'Sullivan $3.5MM.
- September, 2008 -- ...which means he has to give Stoll a little more too...$3.9MM.
- October, 2008 -- Cammalleri discovers he doesn't like Terry Murray. Instead of recording career numbers in Calgary, he struggles mightily on the Kings'
1st/2nd/4th/1st/3rd/1st/4th/1st line. - March, 2009 -- Lombardi trades the underperforming O'Sullivan for Justin Williams, but to compensate for the extra salary, Lombardi has to thrown in the 2010 6th round pick, in addition to the 2009 2nd round pick.
- June, 2009 -- Kopitar uses a powerpoint presentation showing Cammalleri's dollars-per-goal ratio to persuade Lombardi (or Lombardi*) to give him a seven year deal at $7.3MM cap hit.
- July 2, 2009 -- Lombardi acquires Ryan Smyth and suddenly the Kings are about $1-2MM over the cap. They're going to have to unload some salary. The candidates are Handzus, Stoll, Williams, Brown, Scuderi or Greene. Which means it's either Handzus or Stoll.
- Summer, 2009 -- Lombardi cannot find anyone to take 2 years of Handzus at $4MM/year. So Stoll is traded for pucks. Cammalleri moves to center on the second line.
- June, 2010 -- Because Lombardi traded away his 6th round pick, he is not able to trade up to grab Maxim Kitsyn.
- July, 2010 -- The Kings have no cap room to pursue Ilya Kovalchuk or anyone else, so the summer of 2010 is much more fun.
- October, 2010 -- Jack Johnson extends, at $5MM/year, not $4.5MM.
- October, 2010 -- Kings opening night roster is:
- Kings are up against the cap ceiling.
- February 28, 2011 -- Lombardi, strapped for cap room, does not trade for Dustin Penner.
- Spring, 2011 -- Williams extends at a cap hit of $4MM, not $3.6MM.
This year's playoffs, with a side of Cammalleri?
- April, 2011 -- The Kings enter the first round series against San Jose without Kopitar and Parse, both injured (per reality). But they have Cammalleri instead of Penner (presumably an upgrade) And they don't have Stoll.
- Does the addition of Cammalleri have given the Kings the needed edge in some of those one-goal games? Or, does his defensive inattentiveness fit right in with the Kings' meltdown theme? I can imagine either outcome.
- But let's say he helps and the Kings get themselves out of the first round, sort of like Montreal last year. (Woo.)
- ...before they lose in round two or three to the eventual cup winner. (Boo.)
- (the point is, I feel safe saying Cammalleri would not have been the Missing Piece that delivers the Cup in 2010.)
- The question then becomes...
Would that extra round or two have been worth it?
- There are several things to look at. The first is the fact that signing Cammalleri sucks up all the cap room Lombardi used to pursue upgrades through trade (in this case, Penner). Personally, I believe that Penner (who, recent evidence to the contrary, is good defensively) is a better option than Cammalleri. But let's say I'm wrong. Say Penner sucks all of next year. Let's say he wears the Frolov wig. He's "enigmatic" and everyone blames him. Would we wish we had Cammalleri then?
- Let's follow the counter-factual for a few more months...
- June, 2011 -- Doughty extends at $6.5MM cap hit into perpetuity.
- June, 2011 -- Wayne Simmonds extends at $1.8MM.
- June, 2011 -- The cap increases to $62.5MM...
- ...which is just about exactly the Kings' cap figure.
- September, 2011 -- At training camp, Brayden Schenn is one of the best players on the ice, but he's demoted to Manchester because the Kings don't have the cap room to keep him. There is no bonus cushion in the last year of the CBA, so all of Schenn's cap hit ($3.14MM) would count. As a result, Schenn is buried in the minors for the season.
- The 2011-12 opening night roster looks like this:
- The Kings have Cammalleri, but don't have Stoll or Schenn, and don't have Penner either (which you might think is a blessing -- I think Penner will have a great year next year -- but I'm willing to look at his absence as a bonus here).
- In reality -- outside of this exercise -- the Kings have the option of using Schenn or Loktionov or both next season. But in the Cammalleri Counter-Factual, the Kings are forced to use a steeply discounted Handzus (or someone similar, if Handzus won't sign in that range), instead of the faster, more offensive Stoll, in the third line center spot.
- And whoever the second line center is, he's got to be cheap. Either Loktionov is ready, or an unlikely candidate like Justin Azevedo appears out of nowhere, or the Kings are stuck with something like Kopitar/Lewis/Handzus/Richardson down the middle.
- Also, it's interesting that we (I) began this frivolous exercise in part because of the perceived need for speed, and as a result of retaining the speed we previously traded away, we end up having to trade away the speed we have. (That's a mouthful: I mean we gain Cammalleri and lose Stoll.)
- AND we don't get Schenn for another year (2012-13).
- Having Cammalleri instead of Penner, Stoll and Schenn leaves the Kings smaller and very thin down the middle. Actually, it's Cammalleri and Handzus, instead of Penner, Stoll and the option of Schenn or Loktionov. Yes, Cammy is speedy and a sniper. But if Penner is not going to suck and Schenn or Loktionov are ready for prime time, there really is no need for Cammalleri.
23 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well put
I for one am so glad Cammalleri was traded. I don’t even care who the Kings got for him. He was useless and still is. Remember the 2007-08 season when he started out with 10 goals in the first 10 games of the season and was leading the NHL with guys like Kovalchuk? How did that season end for him? 19 goals. Granted, he played 63 games, but that still means that over his last 53 games he had 9 goals. He was never going to be a true sniper like the Kings need and I say the same thing I did when he was traded, “Good riddance.”
Rec'd just for the asterisk footnote :-)
Really, it’s all about cap management, which is the art of getting value for what the league allows you to spend. I think that Cammalleri is a useful player; the problem is that he’s way overpaid for what he contributes. And in the salary cap era, you aren’t going to build a team good enough to win the Stanley Cup by throwing money willy-nilly.
The problem. I think, is that GMs who don’t have Lombardi’s iron will sometimes feel so much pressure to upgrade their rosters through signing UFAs that they get into a bidding war and inevitably overpay. When you’re talking about the few, truly elite players at the top, that’s one thing. But when you get to the bottom of the top tier and the second tier, well…. cf. Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Cammy, etc. And you’re stuck with a contract that’s too horrific to get someone to take it in trade, and you’re inhibited from doing things that will really improve your roster.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
Ditto
Whenever the Kings have a scoring slump or losing streak, some shithead comes out of the woodwork characterizing the Kings as “cheap” and maybe even inept letting such a great player get away. The analysis above shows how stupid this criticism is.
He is NOT worth 6 million dollars a year, and never will be. If the Canadiens are dumb enough to pay him that, then so be it. Yes he can score, but is this the type of player that will lead a team to a Cup? Is it worth blowing this much cap space for this guy?
The next thing I am going to hear is that Randy Jones is a great defenseman (look at how well Tampa Bay is doing) and the Kings were short sighted letting him go.
It becomes very hard to listen to garbage like this, and unloading Cammalleri was not only smart, but an inevitability. Good riddance you greedy asshole !!!
by Steve S. on May 9, 2011 10:09 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
As for Penner...
It’s easy to forget that he looked pretty good when he played with Kopitar. He did pretty much what the Kings acquired him to do during that time. He drove to the net, set screens and created room for Kopi to operate in. Based on that, I predict that he’ll put in a good season next year. He and Kopi just need more quality time together. :-)
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
I hang my hat on the hope
that Penner-Kopitar-Williams have a whole season together. They actually consistently passed to each other, created many good scoring chances, and usually controlled the run of play. It’s a solid line; better than solid, scary good.
I also got the feeling that Penner lost whatever mojo he has when Kopi got hurt. I think he came here thinking his role/job was to be Kopitar’s missing winger whereupon they would light the red lamp more often than a hooker in Amsterdam. When Kopi got hurt, Penner’s paradigm needed to shift such that he was the Kopitar of that line—carrying the puck, taking the puck to the net, and creating for others. Unfortunately, he never made that mental shift.
Good point
When Kopi got hurt, Penner’s paradigm needed to shift such that he was the Kopitar of that line—carrying the puck, taking the puck to the net, and creating for others. Unfortunately, he never made that mental shift.
And that was just too much to reasonably expect from him, given that he had just come to a new team in mid-season, and that he never really had to play that creator role in Anaheim or Edmonton (not that I can recall, anyway).
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
If Kopitar and Williams stay healthy, it will be a big year for Penner
I will hang my hat on the fact that it is a contract year for Penner. No matter what the sport is, players in their prime tend to have huge years before they become UFA’s. Money and security is the huge motivator here. Combine that with a training camp to learn the system and gel with his linemates, I wouldn’t be schocked if Penner puts up 30+ goals, maybe even approach 40.
Of course, health is going to be an asterisk, not for Penner but rather his linemates (ankle for Kopitar, shoulder for Williams). It will be very interesting to see if Penner comes into training camp in shape and ready to have a big season. If health and fitness come together, this is a legit top line.
My main worry about Kopitar is that he might get off to a slow start, and that being off of his skates until mid-summer will affect his conditioning. Given that he has been such a horse, I think we can regard his injury at this point as an aberration. I still see him as being unusually durable.
"Prepare your bladder for imminent release!" — Invader Zim
When I see Kopitar, I see a player who is smooth and moves effortlessly. In contrast, guys like Richardson or Stoll look like they are really working hard to generate their speed. I’m certainly no medical expert but I would think that this efficiency of movement will help Kopitar when he returns from his injury.
Given that he does not play an overly physical style or make his living in front of the net, I agree that he is extremely durable. He doesn’t necessarily need to bowl over a guy to make a good play and more times than not, his hockey sense actually puts him out of harm’s way.
I want to start off by saying that I absolutely agree with Quisp and everyone else that it was a good move to trade Cammy. He didn’t want to be here really and wanted way too much money.
I do disagree with Quisp’s prediction of how signing Cammy would have set the benchmark and raised all of the salaries of other players the Kings sign. I have two real issues with this idea:
1) Scott Gomez has a cap hit of $7.4 million and last season scored 7 goals with 38 total points for the Canadiens.
Chris Drury only played in 24 games but had 1 goal and 5 points in those games which projects to under 20 points for the season but he has a cap hit of $7 million.
And of course there is Wade Redden whose $6.5 million cap hit was buried in the AHL all season long.
I don’t think that any player on the Rangers or Canadiens or any other team that has a contract like this can say well, I had a better season than Gomez so pay me over $7 million per year. The team can say well we overpaid him but we aren’t going to hand you a bigger contract just because he didn’t play well this year. Which kinda leads into part 2
2) The “benchmark” for player’s salaries isn’t just set by what the team has given other players (example- Brown’s extension is based off what JW gets or Kopitar signs) but also the general benchmark across the league of what that player is worth. The bad contracts for Redden, Gomez, Drury who are all clearly ridiculously overpaid doesn’t lead to all the other players on the Rangers then demanding more money so I think it is unfair to portray the Kings hypothetical alternate situation as such.
Looking back now I guess it was really just one point kinda split into two parts of an explanation but I hope you understand what I’m trying to get across :)
And again, I totally agree Cammy wasn’t worth that much and it was a good decision to trade him then rather than lose him for nothing the next summer.
I like Cammo, but not at 6 million
So right decision to trade him…
"If you're looking in my general direction, you're looking the wrong way."
Barca Blaugranes
Off topic but
I too am actually glad he’s gone. Here is one that I am still getting off my chest to this day though. The 2003 draft. Wanna talk about what if’s? The Kings had three firsts under DT. Dave was never known as being a terribly creative GM when it came to trades (and while A Deadmarsh was a heart and soul player Pierre Lacroix also knew he was very injury prone throughout his career (and they could afford to give him up…. so that’s another story).
Back to the 2003 draft. I like Brownie, but I think most agree that he’s a very solid 2nd line winger. Players drafter after him: Zach Parise, Getzlaf, Mike Richards, Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry. The Kings had picks 26 and 27. What if they had packaged those picks (plus a 2nd rounder if necessary to move up three spots?). Players who were still available were Kesler, Richards and Perry (who was actually drafted after Boyle and Tambellini).
But in Quisp’s alternate universe we probably would have actually been a better team and probably not slipped to the bottom where we could draft DD. Everything has it’s price.
OK. Ideally I’ll never speak of that draft again.
I remember Pierre Maguire going balistic at the time that teams let Parise drop as far as he did, saying that a lot of teams were going to regret that decision, and it turns out he was right.
At least Brown turned out to be a very good player for the Kings. Remember Lauri Tukonen, who the Kings picked 11th overall the following year? Yeah, me neither.
I didn’t know that about Pierre Maguire’s response. At the time I was living in the UK so quite cut off from nhl except on the internet (which wasn’t the same at the time). So I studied the pre draft Hockey News. Funny, there are only about three players profiles that I remember. One was Brownie. They said he comes to play every night but scouts had concerns about his offensive upside as his offense seemed inconsistent. They were right.
Then to Parise. They said something to the affect ‘one scout called him magical’ and said ’there’s nothing I don’t like about this kid’. Right again.
On Brian Boyle they said that it was one thing to do the things he was doing at the HighSchool level (I believe) carrying three defenders on his back as he scored a goal. But it was very difficult to know how where he was would translate to a higher level. Righteeoooh.
By the way, I also remember that EJ Hradek said that several teams didn’t like the way Boyle interviewed. Yep, seemed like a dead cert then for our old Kings admin.
But...
April, 2011 — The Kings enter the first round series against San Jose without Kopitar and Parse, both injured (per reality). But they have Cammalleri instead of Penner (presumably an upgrade) And they don’t have Stoll.
Would we have even made the playoffs without Stoll and his near perfect record in the shootout? That’s a whole lot of shootout wins we relied on even to land the seven seed.
I Love Alternate Histories
In reality, we have no idea what would have happened had Lombardi signed Cammy at the price he wanted. But Quisp’s scenario seems as plausible as anything else. I think DL made the right choice to get him out of town – there is no way I see Cammy fitting in under Terry Murray, and I think he easily could have become one of those massive contracts that are impossible to move.
I second Hoolie — there’s no way to know what would have happened. But I doubt he would have gone after Smyth in this alternate universe. Smyth’s excessive cap hit was something he was willing to live with after missing out on Hossa and other free agents.
He might not have gotten along with TM — but that is also a TM problem, no?
Interesting exercise.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
yes, also a TM problem.
I personally feel we have that problem now, though most people seem comfortable giving him another year.
Wait till this year.
Didn't Cammalleri have concussion issues as well?
I remember his exorbitant salary demands and the rumors that he was a cancer in the locker room but IIRC correction, he had some concussion issues to factor in.
I feel like this is the Pelican Brief and I already know too much.
www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on May 11, 2011 10:09 AM PDT reply actions
