Make Your Doughty Predictions Here -- Win a Terry Murray Golden Seals card (or something even better!)
by Quisp on Jul 19, 2011 2:34 PM PDT
in Doughty Contract
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PrintMake your prediction in the comments. One prediction per commenter. No revisions. Your first prediction is your prediction. In case of a tie after the tie-breakers, the win goes to the person who got his prediction in first.
Everyone who predicts the cap hit within $250,000, and term exactly will be considered "right." Everyone else will be considered "wrong." For the purposes of this contest, someone who guesses the exact cap hit and term is tied with someone else who guesses the right term but is off on the cap hit by $250,000 or less.
If more than one person is "right," the tie will be broken based on how many of the following details the commenter also guessed correctly:
- no-move clause, no-trade clause, or neither?
- salary in each year of the deal (one point for each year correctly guessed within $75,000)
- month in which the deal is officially announced by Kings press release
- exact date in which the deal is officially announced by Kings press release (3 points for a direct hit; 2 points for +/- 2 days, 1 point for +/- 7 days)
- is this deal the result of an offer sheet?
- if yes on #5, did the Kings match?
- if yes on #5, which club tendered the offer sheet?
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I made a doughnut shaped like a #8 once. It was part of my “Norris Nominee” dessert series.
Green was a lime jello shot shaped like his horrible hair, and Keith was a cupcake with chicklets (this was before #nhlcupcakes).
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Here's Mine
1) NMC/NTC
2) 6.5 million for 11 years (8, 8, 8, 7.5, 7.5, 6, 6, 5.5, 5, 5, 5)
3) August
4) 08/05/11
5) No offer sheet
6) N/A
7) N/A
I don’t have the ken or patience to work out a detailed prediction. But I will predict that the contract will be announced during the first week of August, because the last time I left town on business for more than a day, the news about Ryan Smyth requesting a trade broke. :-0
"I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly
1) Yes, NTC/NMC
2) $55mm, 8 years, $6.875 Cap Hit, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 7.5, 7.5, 8, 8
3) August
4) Deal done Aug. 8th
5) No Offer Sheet
6) Doesn’t apply
7) Doesn’t apply
www.prosportsblogging.com
by Great Ice-Pectations on Jul 19, 2011 3:35 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
NTC/NMC
Must be a Group 3 Free Agent before you can get one.
The CBA .PDF is free to download from the Internet.
by Cirtes on Jul 19, 2011 3:36 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
its.all.too.much.....
i cant think rt now cuz im busy working…and this feels like work to me….
6yrs.6.25…..NMC….ill work the rest out later…if i win its fine if i get disqualified…but i dont wanna think rt now….
"It's not illegal. It's frowned upon, like masturbating on an airplane."-Alan Garner
$7.25MM, four years ($7.25, $7.25, $7.25, $7.25), no no-move/no-trade, announced 9/2/11, no offer sheet
Wait till this year.
oops, i screwed up -- and obviously i am bound by my own rules so i can't change my prediction
but i meant three years not four. four would suck, as dd would be ufa then.
Wait till this year.
I for one, hope you are wrong..
because I will strangle myself with my girlfriend’s Doughty scarf (OK it’s mine) if he’s not signed by 8/2/11.
by CrownedRoyal on Jul 19, 2011 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Does he deserve to make more than Kopitar? That seems wrong (maybe if he ripped it up last year, Norris candidate but it just seems weird...)
I guess with only three years (as you’re predicting) and a contract that has him ending up as an RFA still, then I guess that sounds reasonable. I think DL ends up going that route (sorry to copycat but it seems very DL’ish type; short term, three years).
So, prediction?
1. NMC/NTC (might as well if it’s such a short term contract)
2. $7.00MM cap hit – ($8.0MM, $7.0MM, $6.00MM)
3. August
4. August 4th, 2011
5. No offer sheet
6. Norris trophy candidate this upcoming season
7. First LA King defenseman to score 20 goals two seasons from now…
Winning Will Be Satisfaction Enough (Well, that and the knowledge that the Kings are likely Western Conference favorites going into the season!)
I predict it gets announced this Friday July 22 because with Stamkos’s deal now done, Meehan can focus on Doughty. Based on what Stamkos got, I predict Doughty will get a bit less as he has not yet demonstrated himself to be quick the impact player as Stamkos.
8 years, $56.5 million ($6 million for 2011-12, $6.5 million for ‘13, $7 million for each year ’14-’17, $8 million for each ‘18 and ’19) for an average annual cap hit of $7.0625 million (as compared wiht Stamkos’s $7.5 cap hit).
It’ll have a NMC that kicks in next summer.
No offer sheet.
by Garrett79 on Jul 19, 2011 4:07 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
6.85 cap hit for 7 years
1) A NTC going into effect in year 3
2) Back-loaded salary (5, 5, 6, 7, 7.5, 8.725, 8.725)
3) July (being optimistic)
4) 7/28/2011
5) No
I felt like playing along. I doubt I will be right, but we will see…
Reba (I have posted once or twice, its been awhile)
Cap hits-
Duncan Keith-5.53
Nik Lidstrom-6.2
Zdeno Chara-6.9
Chris Pronger-4.9
Mike Green-5.25
Dan Boyle-6.6
You guys really think Doughty is gonna get 7+ on his first contract?
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Hope not
but expect so.
Don’t you think that it’ll be scaled somewhere below Stamkos and Weber? I can’t see Meehan ignoring their figures. Lombardi will try to draw numerous contrasts…
Also, to play the devil’s advocate, keep in mind the numbers you show don’t reflect everything and can easily be turned around. Chara’s previous contract was higher and this one runs until he’s 41; Duncan got a multi-year deal that runs until he’s 39 so he made a bit of “sacrifice”; Pronger earns big $$ until just before he turns 40 when it dips; Lidstrom has taken a little less a couple of times now (and he’s 41) but he has had a number of years earning around 7.5. And then we’ve got Campbell, earning over 7.1, who you didn’t list.
Lombardi can argue that Campbell was nowhere worth his contract and it helped contributed to the break up of the Hawks. Stamkos isn’t really comparable because he’s a forward (and a center) who’s scored 50 goals. Pronger had won a Hart and Norris and Lidstrom multiple Norris’s win they made big money.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Absolutely, it’s both sides’ job to present their points. Personally, I don’t think any player that isn’t clearly highly elite, like Crosby and Ovechkin – but not Stamkos – should be pulling this sort of money so soon in his career. Don’t know about the breakup of the Hawks argument, mind you; Tallon’s tardy offer sheet fiasco contributed greatly, plus they did manage to win the Cup with Campbell on the team.
Yeah but Lombardi is trying to build a team long term, not a one off. Because they had Campbell’s ludicrous contract, he had no room to resign Buff, Ladd, Neimi or Versteeg (I know Hossa contributed to that as well, but that is a low cap hit for his value). I also would be careful when comparing July 1 UFA signings (Campbell, Wisneiwski, Chara (first Bruins contract) to RFA resignings (Keith, Green)
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
The cap hit will largely hinge on the number of years, though you also have to factor in that Doughty will be in his prime. Lidstrom was paid a lot more until recently. Pronger’s cap hit comes from tacking on a crazy amount of cap-bending — though Philly managed to mess even that up, because it was an over 35 contract. He’s still being paid $7.6M.
You can get a lower cap hit if you want to take on that level of risk — let’s face it, even for a star, anything longer than 4-5 years becomes a gamble. Plus, the player has to be willing to sign it.
It’s hard to say. I think what happened to Richards and Carter would give any young player pause. Stamkos only going for 5 years makes sense to me.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Yeah but like I said above for Lidstrom, he had won multiple Norris trophies. I’d be fine with a long term deal for Dough, but I don’t think Lombardi would go over 10 years. Good point on the Richards and Carter trades giving young players pause.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Granted this was in the pre-cap era, but Lidstrom used to make tons more. He’d already filled his vault when he signed those lower deals with the Wings.
Current market forces have something to do with it. When Kopi signed his massive deal, the cap was lower, so it was a bigger chunk of the budget. Meanwhile, the cap has been rising, and that’s been affecting things (unfortunately for us).
Elliotte Friedman consulted some execs around the league, and they thought Weber would get $6.5-7.5 and Suter $6-7. This was based on the idea that the crazy contracts thrown around to lesser lights this summer would affect what they pulled in. We don’t know who those sources are, and we don’t know what Weber and Suter are actually seeking. But it’s worth thinking about.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Suter will be different. One one hand he’ll be a UFA (will get more if he goes to open market) but also not as good as Weber. Weber has accomplished more than Drew (4 seasons w/ more than 15 goals/40 points (plus more than 20 once) as well as been past the first round, all while being a nasty son of a bitch. Drew has one great season and one decent one. Meehan can argue that Drew’s ceiling is arguably higher than Weber’s.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
I wouldn’t underrate Suter, or how much he brings to that pairing. But good point about UFA.
Doughty might not have accomplished as much as people would like him to, but he’s still accomplished a lot by age 21. High current skill level + potential seemed to be talking points for Mark Guy in Stamkos’ contract.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Suter is good, but the most goals he’s scored in a season is 8. Weber is better. Stamkos has scored 51 and 45 goals, Doughty hasn’t had the same output.
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Well, I’m not talking about goals, really. He’s a great complement, and his presence allows Weber to do what he does.
Maybe that’s a high number on him. Who can say. To me it looks like salaries are going up, and if Weber says “I need you to assure me that Suter is staying” — he’s probably staying.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
PS I think if you say “Doughty hasn’t had the same output as Weber” the only year that he has put up less than 40 points was his rookie year, where point totals and shooting percentages are lower by the general rule (and that incarnation of the Kings totally sucked). Then he put up 59 and 40 points.
Weber’s first full season didn’t come until he was 21. I don’t know how the comparables will shake out, but I would bet right now he matches Weber’s production by the time he’s 25. If the Kings really offered him a 9 year contract, I think they believe that too.
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
Well it appears we’re at a stalemate, just like Drew and Dean
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
Haha, okay.
I will say this: I don’t expect Dean will let a cap hit at 7 happen either. But if he gives up some UFA years, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pull in that in actual salary (front- or back-loaded).
In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC
I agree with Quisp; I think DL enriches the annual amount ($7.0MM or greater) if Dought’s signs for a term of three years or less (I don’t believe either side goes less than three years though so three seems logical IMO),which keeps him as an RFA next go around. If he signs for 4 years or more, I think he gets Kopitar money… It’s what status this contract’s term leaves him at once completed. Much more bargining room for DL if he’s an RFA yet again when Dought’s is up for his next contract.
7 year/$46.2 million ($6.6 million cap hit)
1) Yes, will receive NMC
2) 6.0, 6.2, 6.4, 6.6, 6.8, 7.0, 7.2
3) July
4) July 28 (my birthday is as good as any other day)
5) No
6) N/A
7) N/A
God help me...
I’m the sorta jerk that goes to Vegas and puts down five bucks on the Clippers, Islanders, Detroit Lions, and Pittsburgh Pirates each to win their league’s (semi) respective championships. So far, only the Pirates may payoff (don’t stop believing). With that being said, and everyone’s predictions being pretty sound I’m goin balls to the wall, cause why not?
3 Years at 8 million per
1. Yes, a NMC right out the gate
2. Nothing fancy (more on that) 8, 8, 8
3. September
4. September 5th
5. OH YEAH
6. You betcha
7. Wait for it…Edmonton. Tambellini gets a case of ‘actin a fool’ after Bettman screws the pooch in the Smyth deal, where he voids the trade to everyone’s dismay. Tambellini cries for an hour, downs a bottle of Canadian LTD, then offers Doughnuts the 8 mil per 3 years just to screw with Lombardi, clearly not thinking properly. Of course the move hamstrings just about everyone involved with it, but hey, that’s Tambellini, right?
Obviously I am more than likely to be wrong on every count. HOWEVER, if I am right, I want bonus points if Tambellini does indeed drink specifically Canadian LTD.
GET IT DONE DEANO
"And in net, number 39, DAAAAAAN CLOOOOUTIER"
"NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"
8 years / $56 mil ($7mil cap hit per)
1. NTC/NMC
2. $7mil per season
3. August
4. 8/1/11
5. no offer sheet
5a. this is will be a direct result of Shea Weber signing a contract
by djspock92 on Jul 19, 2011 6:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
This is Stamkos in a Puck Daddy article:
With the CBA going to expire at the end of next year, we wanted to get something done. You never know what the outcome [of that] will be, and you don’t want to be tied down in a long-term deal," he said.
With the same agent as Drew, maybe he wants a shorty deal too?
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
SH*T! 3 years, 7, 6.85, 6.05
fine. I DQ myself. I surrender.
Here’s a thought though.. if the rumors are true that Doughty wants to be the ‘highest paid King’ (not sure if I buy it, sounds like agent posturing to me) wouldn’t it be interesting if DL offers a long term front loaded contract that gets him $6.85 MM until 2016 (the final year of Kopitar’s CURRENT contract) and then down to like $5 MM or something after that? Just a thought.
I actually agree with Quisp that it will probably be 3 years.
by CrownedRoyal on Jul 19, 2011 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions
3 years, $18.75mil = $6.25mil
1. neither
2. 2.25+3sb, 2.25+4sb, 7.25mil
3. July
4. July 25
5. no
pulling out all the “out there prediction” stops!
You wanna tell me that to mah face?!
DL's "Show Me Somethin'" Contract...
Two years, $12M total ($6M cap hit)
1. No NMC/NTC
2. $5.5M, $6.5M
3. August
4. August 10
5. No offer sheet
by King of Saskatchewan on Jul 19, 2011 7:50 PM PDT reply actions
6 years, 39 million
Per year – (5.5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7, 8) = 6.5 million cap hit per year
NMC and NTC included
July 30th
No offer sheet
3 Yrs, $18.75M 5.75, 6.25, 6.75
NMC/NTC Yes
August
August 14, 2011
No sheet
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
I'd love to wait....
until shea webers arbitration hearing…
lets go 4 years, 27M, cap hit of 6.75M
8, 8, 6, 5
No NMC/NTC
First well hear of the deal is Aug (4th), officially announced august 5
there will be no offer sheet
I'll throw my hat into the ring...
5 years – $30MM (6.0 per)
1. neither
2. 8MM, 8MM, 6MM, 4MM, 4MM – get that money before the CBA ends.
3. August
4. August 3rd
5. No
6. No
7, No
I believe a guy with very little leverage can’t get Kopitar money without going Kopitar length. Lombardi wants to continue keeping everyone’s salary low for flexibility/precedence.
by Clever Kings Handle on Jul 19, 2011 10:44 PM PDT reply actions
That Terry Murray card would look great next to my KC Scouts pennant...
6 years / $45 million (cap hit of $7.5 million per year)
1. yes NTC, no NMC
2. 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6
3. August
4. August 8th
5-7. No offer sheet
by Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo on Jul 20, 2011 1:09 AM PDT reply actions
anything Robitaille (jersey would Rock though)
1. NTC
2. 8 years at $50.0 mill. Average caphit $6.25 (8.25, 5.0, 5.50, 5.75, 6.0, 6.25, 6.5, 6.75 )
3. July
4. 28th
5. No.
NTC after 4th year
5,642,857 average cap hit
7 year contract
2.5 sal, 2 sb = 4.5
2.5 sal, 3 sb = 5.5
4.5
6
6
6.5
6.5
total 39.5m
by Cirtes on Jul 20, 2011 6:42 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
6 years, variable salary, total $41.5m, avg cap hit $6.9m
1.) Nope
2.) 6.5, 6.5, 7, 7, 7, 7.5 (6.9 avg cap hit)
3.) August
4.) 4th
5.) Nope
http://inplaynoouts.blogspot.com/ - A blog about teams I like, written by me.
5 years, $32.5 million, $6.5 million avg. cap hit
1. No on NMC
2. $6.25/$6.25/$6.5/$6.5/$7.0
3. August
4. August 4th
5. Not a result of an offer sheet.
6. N/A
7. N/A
I think DL would push for a longer term and offer more money but Doughty wants a shorter term and will take less money so he becomes a UFA with several prime years ahead of him.
3 years, $20.4MM, $6.8MM cap hit
1. NMC, NTC
2. 6.4, 6.5, 7.5
3. September
4. 9/11/11 at Fanfest
5. No
DD gets the same actual salary for Kopitar for the term of the contract and the Kings retain FA rights. It’s a win-win.
Actually, Richards will make more the next three seasons but his contract was not negotiated by Lombardi yet so I’m sticking with my Kopitar matching concept.
Rich Ramus
Five years, eleventy gajillion dollars.
San Jose Sharks 2011 Off-Season: Shock and Balls
Battle of California
Hya, get out of here snail!
For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.
by Nut on Jul 20, 2011 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
"gajillion" does not exist
I think you meant “gazillion.”
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Kovalchump 2.0
I had happily forgotten the nonsense about Kovalchump until this whole DD scenario and an article on Puck Daddy, Ridiculous. Stamkos signing should give this some clarity. I go with;
5 year $35M CAP Hit $7M
NTC/NMC
($8M,8,8,5.5,5.5)
.Signed August 3rd
NO offer sheet
Contest
7 years 45.5 MILLION 6,75 cap hit
NTC,NMC
7.5M,,6.5M, 6.5M, 6,5M,5.5M, 7M.6M
Signed August 5th
No offer sheet
3 years, 18 mil
1. No clauses (bonus of Norris?)
2. 5.5, 6, 6.5
3/4. Signed August 4th
5. No offer sheet
Four years, 27.5M
1. Neither
2. 6.95M, 6.95M, 6.85M, 6.75M
3,4. August 3 (after Dean’s finished working on the debt ceiling)
5,6,7. No
I’m not winning anything, but is this what you’re offering?
Nice to see him smiling.
It is that thing that I sent to you.
Maybe
but then why is mine turning? :)
It is that thing that I sent to you.
by whine_country on Jul 22, 2011 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
6 years, 8.0 million
1) no-move clause in final year
2) 8.5 million in first 5 years, 5.5 in final year
3) August
4) August 6th
5) No
6/7) N/A
If this deal looks like the Stamkos deal to you, that was intentional (I am a Bolts fan, after all).
Also, this is pretty much the first time I’ve visited this blog so I admittedly know nothing about the general felling on the situation, but if there is panic, don’t panic. Don’t listen to the rumor-mongers. We heard all about how Philly was doing this and that for Stamkos, and of course he signed with us and both sides said that there was never a chance of him leaving. The Doughty situation, IMO, is pretty similar.
you're not defending him are you?
are you his mom?
by toppleprone on Jun 7, 2011 9:43 PM EDT
Also, this is pretty much the first time I’ve visited this blog so I admittedly know nothing about the general felling on the situation, but if there is panic, don’t panic. Don’t listen to the rumor-mongers.
I think there is a mild undercurrent of anxiety, in large part because it’s almost certain that nothing else major will happen with the Kings for the rest of the summer, and Doughty’s contract is the only thing left to focus on. After the Richards trade and the Smyth trade and the Gagne signing, there’s just not much point in making any other major moves.
I appreciate your perspective, and your advice is sound. Any talk about teams making offer sheets for Doughty is almost certainly just hot air, as it was with Stamkos. Even so, I’m curious: Did you guys have that same low background hum of anxiety until Stamkos actually signed?
"I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly
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