Richards' production from a fantasy standpoint

by lampshade9909 on Jul 21, 2011 9:21 AM PDT

I'm posting to discuss predictions on Mike Richards' fantasy hockey production, specifically in the Goals, Assists, and Special Teams Goals categories.

Obviously there are several factors that go into predicting a player's production on a new team. Just to name a few:

Past statistics
Difference in past and present team's playing styles
Chemistry with new linemates
Depth of past team vs depth of present team, player ice time, player situations (ie: powerplay, penalty kill, even strength)

So let's break these down. During 2008 season and 2009 seasons, Richards had 2 years in a row of point per game. STGs ranged from 13-15. During the 2010 and 2011 seasons Richards averaged about 64 points per season and had a slight decline in STGs (as well as Power play assists). Another important note to make here is that during 2010 and 2011 Philly's began spreading out their offensive forwards among many lines to add depth. This included several points in time when Richards would be centering a checking line even strength, while still maintaining a role on the powerplay and penalty kill units.

Philly's playing style differs greatly from LA. I believe that Richards as a player will fit in great, but Philly was very offensive, and LA is slightly more defensive. One big question to ask, what is Richards' role going to be on LA? I'm thinking number 2 Center with key role on power play unit as well as special teams unit. That role sounds like it fits him well, but it doesn't sound like he'll be scoring point per game with that role. Opinions??

Chemistry is very important. I can see him having solid chemistry while scoring some points, but I can also see him having solid chemistry while not scoring very often. LA has not been a high scoring team over the past few years, but this could certain change over the next year or two. My basis for LA being low scoring is that, they often win low scoring games, and the simple fact that they scored 219 goals last year (that's tied for the second lowest goals scored amount playoff teams last year). I'm not saying that's a bad thing, I'm just saying that's a factor in predicting Mike Richards' fantasy production this coming year.

Richards is a skilled, power forward, two way center, ect. He'll fill a big role in LA. When comparing depth between Philly and LA... I'd say Philly had more depth on forward (last year) and LA had more depth on defense (last year). Richards coming to LA helps balance the depth for LA. That may work in Richards' statistical favor in a sense that LA will have a strong balance of offensive depth and defensive depth this year.

Though I would love to see his numbers higher, I'm putting Mike Richards in the ball park of 50-58 points with 8-12 STGs.

Any opinions or predictions out there?

This item was written by a member of this community and not by an author of JFTC.

Tweet Comment 8 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Hello there. This is an interesting question. Thanks for stopping by.

My basis for LA being low scoring is that, they often win low scoring games, and the simple fact that they scored 219 goals last year (that’s tied for the second lowest goals scored amount playoff teams last year). I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, I’m just saying that’s a factor in predicting Mike Richard’s fantasy production this coming year.

It’s not very easy to base predictions for this team just off the past season. A lot of changes have occurred.

For reference, in 2009-10, the Kings were 9th in the league in goal scoring. The big difference from that season to last was the power play. Their even strength scoring improved (145 to 148 goals), but the weak power play alone was enough to send them from top ten to lower rungs.

The Kings’ PP was static and predictable, and relied too much on getting shots from the point. More forwards with playmaking ability and creativity would have really helped. Loktionov was doing good things there in his call-up. Gagne and Richards should improve that.

There are other factors that will affect overall team scoring (like whether Martinez and the other young players improve on their rookie seasons, Stoll moving to the third line, etc.), but I’ll focus on MR, because this is about fantasy predictions. Mike Richards has often gone against the toughest competition and still produced. I think it’s likely that Terry Murray will continue to use him that way, and give Kopitar an easier time of it. Murray likes pairs, and Gagne-Richards had a lot of chemistry. Brown or Williams will be on the other side; TM likes juggling, but Richards will be with some talented guys. So the questions are: will Gagne bounce back, and will he and Williams stay healthy?

The other debate that Kings fans have is how much Terry Murray’s pre-lockout-era defensive minded system affects overall scoring. Brown and Williams have at least shown they can be very productive in the Kings’ system. If there are two players who will probably do just fine with it, I’d say Gagne and Richards.

The last four seasons Richards put up 76, 63, 79, and 62 points. It will depend on the health of his linemates and the way his new RWs will respond to the shutdown role — but I don’t think he’ll score fewer points overall just by being in the Kings system.

Richards noted that he and Gagne flourished under Stevens and Murray. I think he’s looking forward to it. So am I.

In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

by Niesy on Jul 21, 2011 11:28 AM PDT reply actions

Good comparison with the 2009-10, 2010-11 season saying even strength slightly improving, but the Powerplay dropped heavily. Gagne, Richards, (and maybe even Penner this year?) should certainly help improve that.

As you said, no doubt that Richards will fit Murray’s defensive minded system. Another good point saying that Gagne’s health and possibly even William’s health will greatly affect Richard’s fantasy production.

Let’s look at the Kings scoring breakdown from during the past 2 years. And try to pinpoint some “estimated” predictions.

2010: Scored 241 goals. Allowed 219
Forward Points: Kopitar (81, 82gp), Brown(56, 82gp), Smyth(53, 67gp), Stoll(47, 73gp), Williams(29, 49gp)
Def Points: Doughty(40, 76gp), Johnson(36, 80gp)

2011: Scored 219 goals. Allowed 198
Forward Points: Kopitar (73, 75gp), Brown(57, 82gp), Smyth(47, 82gp), Stoll(43, 82gp), Williams(57, 73gp)
Def Points: Doughty(40, 76gp), Johnson(42, 82gp)

The big thing to notice in the point spread is that Kopitar is leading the bunch near point per game. Then comes a handful of guys in the 50+ 40+ point range. So to stay on the topic of fantasy production, it’s interesting to think about Richard’s impact to this point spread. Will he be up high along side Kopitar in points, slightly above the handful of 40+/50+ point guys? Or will he fit in that gap between Kopitar and the hand full of 40+/50+ point players?

2012 Possibility A, assuming fairly healthy team and successful powerplay:
2012: Score up to 250 goals. Allowed < 205 goals
Forward Points: Kopitar (75, 80gp), Richards(70, 80gp), Brown(57, 82gp), Gagne(55, 70gp), Stoll(40, 80gp), Williams(60, 75gp), Penner(45, 80gp)
Def Points: Doughty(50, 77gp), Johnson(45, 80gp)

Possibility A is basically saying the team is very healthy and Richards scores very well with his linemates even strength and on the Powerplay.

2012 Possibility B, not as healthy team and not as successful powerplay:
2012: Score up to 230 goals. Allowed < 205 goals
Forward Points: Kopitar (75, 80gp), Richards(55, 80gp), Brown(55, 80gp), Gagne(40, 60gp), Stoll(40, 80gp), Williams(54, 70gp), Penner(48, 80gp)
Def Points: Doughty(40, 75gp), Johnson(40, 75gp)

Possibility B is saying the team is not as healthy and the line chemistry is far from flawless Richard’s is not as productive on the Powerplay. As a result Richards’ point production falls to the 40+/50+ point bunch on the squad.

I could see the Kings point fortunes falling somewhere in between Possibility A or Possibility B. Either way, I see their goals against staying low (~205 or less). Looking forward to the 2011-12 season!

by lampshade9909 on Jul 25, 2011 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, there are a lot of interesting variables. Last season the Kings’ top 6 scoring improved (most of their goals from 5 guys) but there were also weaknesses — no top line LW, and the fact that Stoll isn’t really a true #2 center (lacks playmaking ability). On the other hand, they had a shutdown center (Handzus) to take on tough competition, but Kopi’s line could be sent out there against the toughs, too.

So the wingers on the second line should have better production with Richards’ playmaking. On the other hand, they lost Handzus, and if Richards replaces him (like I expect) how will that affect everyone’s numbers?

It’s going to be crucial to improve both the even strength and power play scoring. There are some solid winger prospects in the pipeline, so help is on the way, but this could be either a breakout or another transition/growth season.

Cool discussion, hope that helped in some way. Cheers. :)

In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

by Niesy on Jul 25, 2011 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

this could be either a breakout or another transition/growth season.

That’s a great way to summarize the discussion.

Handzus was a great signing by San Jose. One of those players you’d rather see go to another division even if he’s just a 3rd line center all year :\ He’s getting older though, hopefully he won’t be as productive in San Jose as he was In LA.

One thing I love about the Kings club, they’re not relying on either just goaltending or D to keep the puck out of the net. Solid defensive system, solid depth on Defense, and good goaltenders that are getting better with each year. Not to many teams can say that.

Yeah this is helping, basically I’m trying to make a decision on keeping Mike Richards in a fantasy auction league. I have the option of keeping him, or letting him go to auction and attempting to buy him back. The problem is, I want to keep other guys on my roster solely because their price tags are significantly lower, but if I let Richard’s go to auction he’ll get bid up higher than my keeper price so I’ll be losing money if I try to re buy him on auction. So I’m trying to get a good idea on what he’s actually going to produce before I make a decision. Plus, who doesn’t like watching the Kings :-)

by lampshade9909 on Jul 26, 2011 6:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Handzus brings a lot of what they need — and he’s one of my favorite players, because he’s so damn smart — but Iast season his footspeed became more of a problem, and with the loss of a good puck possession guy like Frolov, that line lost the shot battles more than it ought to have. I wish him all the best, but I don’t know if that aspect is going to improve over the next two years. When it came to re-signing him (before Richards was on the horizon) there was some ambivalence. Now I think Richards will be able to take over as PK ace, and other teams won’t know whether to send out their best players to stop Richards’ or Kopitar’s line.

I’ve never played an auction league, but that sounds fascinating. Come back and watch Kings games with us whenever you like.

In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

by Niesy on Jul 26, 2011 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions