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But the arbitrator is not allowed to bring in his own "comparables" (also: more on Doughty, Weber, straw men)

Shea Weber’s Award Does Not Translate to Drew Doughty’s Contract, Part II - S U R L Y & S C R I B E L.A. 

Shea Weber received an award of $7.5 million for one season. That makes him literally the highest paid defenseman in the league. For one season. 

But:

  1. Christian Ehrhoff - $10,000,000
  2. Zdeno Chara - $8,500,000
  3. Duncan Keith - $8,000,000
  4. Chris Pronger - $7,600,000
  5. Shea Weber - $7,500,000
Fifth highest paid defenseman in the league this season. 

[...] [Some] claimed that whatever Drew Doughty was asking for just went up and even went so far as to proclaim the market for all defensemen went up. Exaggerated? Absurd. 

Actually, what I said was:

Star-divide

Weber award is $7.5MM (HIGHEST EVER); so Doughty deserves... - Jewels From The Crown

Whatever it was Drew Doughty was asking for, it just went up. I know it's apples-to-oranges. I know Shea Weber had arbitration rights and Doughty doesn't. I know Weber is a half a decade older. I don't think it matters. Of course it matters to Lombardi's argument. Doughty/Meehan can just argue that -- even if everything Lombardi is saying is true -- the market for defensemen just went up, for everyone. And, that's just one more reason for Doughty to want to get to UFA sooner. [...] 

See? It matters to Lombardi's argument, but I assume Meehan will argue that it raises the bar for everyone. As of course it does. You can debate how much the bar is raised. But it's hardly "absurd" to think that a huge payday for one defenseman affects the value of the contracts of other defensemen. There's a counter-argument to be made? No kidding. I made it myself in that very paragraph. 

Seriously, if Weber had been awarded $5MM, you think Lombardi wouldn't have used that fact in negotiating Doughty's deal? You think that wouldn't impact the contracts of other defensemen? Yes, I know Weber and Doughty are different. That's why they call it a comparison.

Here's more from Surly/Scribe, now quoting Larry Brooks:

From the NY Post[...]: Finally, an arbitrator who did more than split the difference between a club’s submission and the player’s. Finally, an arbitrator who did more than color by numbers upon reaching his decision. … the arbitrator reached his decision based on the compensation due Keith and Seabrook this coming season, including signing bonuses, rather than on their respective cap hits over the course of their long-term contracts.

I guess that would be because salary arbitrators are not interested in cap hits at all. They're interested in salary

Also, by the way, Mr Brooks: you're praising the arbitrator for reaching his decision based on the Seabrook and Keith contracts, but it's not his choice. He's only allowed to consider comparables that one or the other side brings up in their argument. He is not allowed to bring in his own comparables. If the player or the club don't mention Seabrook and Keith, the arbitrator can't factor them in. Here's the relevant passage of the CBA:

CBA 12.9(g)

(ii): The parties may offer evidence of the following: [...]

(G) The compensation of any Player(s) who is alleged to be comparable to the party Player, provided, however, that [...] the Salary Arbitrator shall not consider a Player(s) to be comparable to the party Player unless a party to the arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable; nor shall the Salary Arbitrator consider the compensation or performance of a Player(s) unless a party to the arbitration has contended that the Player(s) is comparable.

(iii) The following categories of evidence are inadmissible and shall not be considered by the Salary Arbitrator:

(A) Any SPC the term of which began when the Player party to such SPC was not a Group 2 Player;

(B) Any SPC entered into by an Unrestricted Free Agent, including SPCs signed by Players after the Player's Club has exercised a walk-away right pursuant to Section 12.10;

(C) The SPC of any Player who is not being offered as a comparable Player to the party Player [...].

Back to S&S:

Intelligent and not reactionary discourse dictates that a 1 year contract for an elite defenseman does not "raise" the financial bar for all elite D, much less every Tom, Dick & Harry D-man.

Because?

The arbitrator correctly gave Shea Weber $7.5 million because he recognized what you do as well – if the "years" are going to be less (or, in this case, all of 1), then the dollars will be more for one of the best in this game. Years get longer, dollars get less. 

Actually, no. The arbitrator didn't make any such calculation. He didn't award Weber more because the years were less; he awarded him more than Seabrook because he decided he compared favorably to Seabrook, and less than Keith because he decided he hasn't achieved what Keith has. The arbitrator's job is to determine what a player should be paid (in the next one season or two, depending on the case) based on any appropriate comparables that are offered by the club or the player. Here's your friend Larry Brooks again:

NHL arbitrator sides with Predators' Weber - NYPOST.com

Furthermore, the arbitrator reached his decision based on the compensation due Keith and Seabrook this coming season, including signing bonuses, rather than on their respective cap hits over the course of their long-term contracts. This was not about a multi-year deal; this was about compensation for 2011-12. Keith, who won the 2010 Norris Trophy, will earn $8 million this season [...]. Seabrook, Keith's partner in Chicago and on the 2010 Canadian Olympic Team (which also included Weber), will earn $7 million [...]. "All that I can know is that in the coming season, Mr. Seabrook, who in my view has not achieved to the level of Shea Weber, will receive $7 million," Picher wrote. "I find Mr. Weber's position relative to Duncan Keith to be somewhat more problematic, [but] I am satisfied that Shea Weber should be placed slightly below Duncan Keith in the compensation market for the coming season."  

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"Because?"

because it’s intelligent and not reactionary discourse, of course.

You wanna tell me that to mah face?!

by uvgt2bkdnme on Aug 15, 2011 10:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Pegula’s a little too gung-ho, almost to the point of being Charles Wang, but at least the Sabres didn’t sign guys like Yashin or DiPietro.

"After months of reading other people’s catchy sigs (like yours), I decided I needed one, too." -- DougX

by VoluminousTuna on Aug 15, 2011 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

They really tried their best to acquire a guy like that in Kotalik though haha. I think that Leino deal really is baffling too.

Giv'r

by DontDoughtDrew on Aug 15, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Curious comparisons

I thought the Yashin (pre-cap) and DiPietro (post-cap) contracts were too long. But … “guys like them?” Yashin was a good player with some subjective flaws. DiPietro was a promising goalie trending upward in an (at the time) escalating goalie market who happened to suffer a succession of concussion, hip and knee injuries within a year after signing the contract (the rare risk of which is exactly why I’d never offer a goalie 15 years).

Pegula — or maybe Regier, since he’s the one burning through Pegula’s money, market be damned — is acting quite like Wang ca. 2002-2006. It’s kind of disappointing, because I was looking forward to Buffalo’s previously conservative budgetary mind being applied toward a cap ceiling team. Instead they’re acting like they have a gift card that must be used at the store now before it goes out of business.

Like Wang, they’ve spent a lot of money on good but not great players like … Yashin and DiPietro.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on Aug 16, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wait . . . so you reasoned yourself into agreeing with me within your post?

To be fair, “guys like them” didn’t tell the whole story about what I meant. “Good not great” sums it up very nicely.

"After months of reading other people’s catchy sigs (like yours), I decided I needed one, too." -- DougX

by VoluminousTuna on Aug 16, 2011 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Between the Ehrhoff contract and the Weber award...

… I’m going to guess that the number of defensemen who actually make it to an arbitration hearing in the next three years will be approximately zero.

by BleedBlue42 on Aug 15, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have my sequel to this salary vs. cap hit distinction coming up, as you know. But there really is a lot of confusion out there about how the arbitration process works.

On the Forecheck did a great job of explaining the relevant bits of the CBA, and what to expect. Reading up on that was the reason I wasn’t surprised by Weber’s award at all. Likely RFA comparables were Phaneuf, Seabrook, and Keith. They make $6.5, $7, and $8 million dollars next year respectively. Weber’s $7.5 is perfectly in line with that.

DragonGirl’s CBA FAQ series over at Broad Street Hockey is also a great reference tool. They’re important to have when even ESPN can’t get all the details of arbitration right.

I do find it dismaying that “highest paid” is being confused with “highest cap hit” in general. In the modern era of cap-bending, and the increase in the cap over time, ranking players by AAV is a pretty pointless exercise.

In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

by Niesy on Aug 15, 2011 11:24 AM PDT reply actions  

Not apples to apples

Three of those defensemen have lead teams to a Cup. If you do that, than you can ask for the moon…

by Steve S. on Aug 15, 2011 11:58 AM PDT reply actions  

That's an unusual standard

Chara signed his previous $7.5 million per year deal ($37.5 million over 5 years) and current 7-year, $45.5 million extension before the Boston Bruins won the Cup.

Duncan Keith signed his current 13-year, $72 million contract (the largest in Blackhawks history, bigger than the Toews and Kane deals announced on the same day) in December of ’09, before the Hawks won the cup in the summer of 2010.

So that leaves one of your three highest-paid defenseman who got his current contract before a Cup win, and Pronger made bank even before that. I think you can argue that great #1 defensemen can play a key role on championship teams. They hit paydirt before they raise the Cup regardless.

The rest of the roster also has a good deal to do with winning it all. There are plenty of guys without cup rings who are more talented than players who do. It’s fine if you want a player to meet certain requirements — but a championship is extreme.

Even the Norris is a high bar. Lidstrom didn’t win one until he was 31. What a slacker, right? Geez.

In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

by Niesy on Aug 15, 2011 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

*For “before a Cup win” I meant to say “after”

Only my most central point, hehe.

In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

by Niesy on Aug 15, 2011 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

This dollar amount is adjusted upward ever year, consistent with the percentage increase of the league’s average player salary

—CBA Interpretation by DragonGirl

Yearly inflation, sure. Weber just shows to what tune…currently. I suppose in the end the number of years will be most interesting.

Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

by USHA#17 on Aug 15, 2011 1:06 PM PDT reply actions  

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