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A Drew Doughty Don Meehan Dean Lombardi Thought Experiment

  • Assume the Kings start the season without Drew Doughty.
  • The strategy of Meehan/Doughty will be to wait for the Kings to crumble without Doughty and come scurrying back with a better offer. 
  • The strategy of Lombardi will be to weather the storm till 12/1, which is the date Doughty must sign by or he sits out the season, per the CBA. 
  • Last year, the Kings were 13-10-0 (26 points) on 12/1. 
  • Last season, the Kings finished with 98 points. That's 1.195 points per game. Which would have been 27.5 points on 12/1.
  • This year, the Kings have 24 games by 12/1. To equal last year's pace, they would need 28.5 points out of those 24 games. That's a record of 14-10-0, or 14-9-1, depending on whether you round up or down.
  • Do you think Lombardi thinks the Kings can win 14 out of 24 games without Doughty? 
  • (I think he does)
  • If your answer is yes, then doesn't it make sense for Lombardi to 

Star-divide

      stick to his guns and wait for Doughty to accept the paltry $6.8MM/7 years (if indeed that is the best offer)? 

  • If your answer is no, then I assume you think Lombardi will blink first, rather than throwing the season away and probably losing his job in the process. 
  • What does it look like if Lombardi blinks? It isn't going to be $7MM/5 years. What about $7.5MM for seven years, throwing out the Anze Kopitar "line in the sand" but sticking to the term "line"? Or is it going to be a one-year deal, so we can do all do this again next year with an arbitrator? 
  • (my guess is Lombardi would do the one year deal before any of the other bad options)
  • I think Lombardi thinks the team will be able to weather the storm for 24 games. I've even started wondering if that wasn't the point in adding Mike Richards and Simon Gagne (and Ethan Moreau, even Trent Hunter...). Sort of like a playoff run, in October/November. And in a backasswards way, Doughty sitting out would mitigate, even erase, all the irrational exuberance and high expectations surrounding the Kings this season -- which can work to our advantage (remember Gretzky's back injury in 1992 and how that season -- the Cup Finals season -- was supposedly doomed? Even the Blake trade in 2001 was supposed to be the end; instead, the Kings won a playoff round for the first time since 1993). These particular Kings have never functioned well under the pressure of expectations. 

    I would prefer Doughty take a fair deal and continue to be a good guy and valued teammate, instead of Cammalleri/Blake 2.0. I'm not wishing for a hold-out. But I'm not afraid of one, either.  

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    Allegedly Voynov's Been in LA

    all summer, working out.

    Maybe somebody mentioned to him that he’d have an extra special opportunity to impress at camp.

    by Lars H on Sep 15, 2011 12:35 PM PDT reply actions  

    I saw him yesterday! He was wearing checkered Vans shoes. He also appears to have gotten a hair cut.

    The West Coast is the Best Coast.

    by RudyKelly on Sep 15, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Was he riding a Vespa?

    by JZarris on Sep 15, 2011 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Quite frankly, this whole thing is starting to turn me sour on DD. He is ONLY 21. There have been several offers put on the table. 6.8M over 9 years? Ok, so the length of term is a problem for you? Fine, take one of the shorter cheaper deals. The fact is that 62M is a butt load of money, no matter who you are. That is top dollar every year for 9 years. 200k per year when you make that kind of money is a drop in the bucket. Fine, front load the deal a bit so that he can have the extra $$$ up front to invest and cover the 200K difference. This is starting to look bad on DD if you ask me. And I have been one saying don’t panic yet, it is not a holdout yet…. I think the agent has more to do with this problem than DD does BTW.

    by michael e on Sep 15, 2011 12:46 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

    His Agent? Sounds like my mother's answer to family tiffs.

    Cousin X wants Christmas at her house this year…
    “We always have everyone over. Its that good for nothing husband of hers.”

    Uncle Bill wants to skip the Poconos this summer…
    “Its his wife, she thinks she’s too high flouting for us.”

    Baby Drew doesn’t like his payday…
    “Its that lousey agent, the guy won’t let him sign if his life depended on it”

    Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

    by USHA#17 on Sep 15, 2011 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

    In this case, though (and in this category of situations), I think there’s a lot of truth to it. High-powered agents like Meehan don’t really have their clients’ best interests in mind. They have it in mind to milk GMs for high-value contracts, regardless of the client’s relationship with the team, or desire to play in a certain city, or just get on with it so he can play. Because why? Because the agent gets paid a % of the value of the contract. And the more big $ contracts he can generate, the more attractive he looks to other potentially lucrative clients. Which is good for him, and doesn’t really matter to Doughty.

    In fact, it doesn’t matter to Meehan if he gives Doughty bad advice and sidetracks his career, as happened with O’Sullivan and his agent. People won’t remember that. They will remember, however, if his brinksmanship works and he gets Drew a big payday. Make no mistake about it: Don Meehan is gambling with the future of a 21-year old kid so he can further his career and make more money. That’s what big-time agents like him do.

    "I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

    by DougX on Sep 15, 2011 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Meehan certainly has a lot at stake now and going forward. Doughty does have a voice in the matter however.

    I suppose for conservation we could float these questions;

     “Name the last hockey player(s) who gave up a big payday for the love of the team and the game. What was left on the table?”

    Maybe Lidstrom?

    Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

    by USHA#17 on Sep 15, 2011 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Scott Niedermeyer

    He came and played for the Ducks and gave up big money. But he wanted to play with his little brother but gave up lots of money nonetheless. Ended up winning the cup. Isn’t that more than a super big payday? Isnt that what these guys ultimately want?

    by Hat Trick7 on Sep 15, 2011 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Logan Couture comes to mind. Also Joe Thornton took a pay cut at his own suggestion. Obviously, he still makes a lot of money…

    by meetyourmako on Sep 15, 2011 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Logan Couture comes to mind

    nope

    Thornton

    He still got a big payday.

    Name the last hockey player(s) who gave up a big payday for the love of the team and the game. What was left on the table?

    This has never happened because no one’s that stupid.

    The West Coast is the Best Coast.

    by RudyKelly on Sep 16, 2011 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

    Doughty does have a voice in the matter however.

    Or rather, he theoretically does, and he should, but it’s more complicated than that.

    Quisp has stated his opinions on agents in other places, and I share them pretty much entirely. I’ll just add here that it would be naive to think that the athlete is always driving the car in situations like this, and the younger they are, the more influence the agent likely has. I mean, if a player felt like he could master the ins and outs of contracts without an agent’s advice, wouldn’t he do it (like Jack Johnson did)? It would be more work, but I’m sure JJ saved himself a lot of money that way.

    "I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

    by DougX on Sep 15, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

    True enough. But remember, Jack Johnson spent a few years in University, and I believe I read somewhere he goes back in the summer to finish his degree. He’s also, what, three years older than Doughty? Doughty essentially went from high school to the NHL, so it’s smart to let an agent handle it – even if I wish he picked a different one.

    Oh, on the subject on players representing themselves, remember Ovechkin fired Meehan and then signed his monster contract in Washington to save on agent’s fees. That one had to sting Meehan.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

    A good point, and I think it kind of reinforces mine. I’m sure a lot of these guys rely on agents because they don’t feel they have the sophistication to do it themselves, and that’s an entirely reasonable approach. But that makes them reliant on agents, who will (naturally) look out for their own interests at least as much as their clients.

    I’m just pointing out that instead of viewing this as a two-way relationship, it’s more accurate to view it as a triangular relationship, with the team, the agent and the player each having their own interests. The player hires an agent because he doesn’t want to dance with the devil personally, but he just winds up hiring a different devil to do it for him.

    "I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

    by DougX on Sep 15, 2011 9:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

    True enough. In theory, the agent should be looking after your interests and not his own. But we all know that’s not always the case, and I think this could be one of those times.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Actually

    Actually I think tying it to last years start influences the question too much.
    LA started great:
    Recorded 10th win in 13th team game, tied for fastest in club history.
    Eight-game home winning streak (Oct. 12-Nov. 13) tied club record for longest home streak to start season.
    Went 5-0-0 on five-game homestand (Oct. 30-Nov. 13) to tie club record.
    Nine wins in December tied club record.
    19 points in December tied club record.
    LA has a MUCH more difficult schedule at the beginning of the season this year. Road/Road/Travel/Travel … oh and you need to cross the Atlantic!
    I really REALLY hope this thing gets done before we go down any kind of hold out, but I’m with you “I’m not afraid of one, either”

    by kevin_ebel on Sep 15, 2011 12:55 PM PDT reply actions  

    I think if this drags on into November, than a one year deal will be signed, no matter what the Kings record is at that time. I really don’t think that Doughty wants to miss the entire season, and I really don’t think Dean wants to risk going with JJ on his top pairing all season, so if it comes to that point, they’ll compromise on a deal to finish off the season, and then us lucky Kings fans get to do this all over again next summer – at least knowing that no matter what, it will be finished by early August at the latest.

    But call me an optimist, I don’t think it goes anywhere near that long.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 12:58 PM PDT reply actions  

    Last year, the Kings had a pretty strong start and then things turned in the last 2 weeks of November, where the team went 1-7. I think they were 14-10 after 24 games

    I think we will probably NOT start as strong in games 1-10 given the mileage run the guys will be going through. I think/hope the team is less likely to collapse later in the year, but I’ll be glad if we are 14-10 after 24, without Drew, and with the Eurotour.

    by Passemoilapuck on Sep 15, 2011 1:01 PM PDT reply actions  

    seems to me...

    …that we did just fine while he was out of the line-up last season. i also remember that we struggled when he came back. maybe i’m remembering it wrong, but i don’t think so.

    can anyone substantiate this memory?

    he’s a really good player and i hope this resolves, but i’m not afraid either.

    What Would JeZus do?

    by Jack-Handy on Sep 15, 2011 1:10 PM PDT reply actions  

    I looked It Up

    3-3 while he was out. Five game win streak when he returned.

    Injured 10/20 vs the ’Canes (Kings win).

    Returned 11/4 vs the Lightning (Kings Win).

    by Lars H on Sep 15, 2011 1:14 PM PDT reply actions  

    Drew was actually better in the first half of last season than he was in the second, at least points-wise. Which is kind of funny when people refer to his “slow start” because he showed up to camp out of shape.

    The West Coast is the Best Coast.

    by RudyKelly on Sep 15, 2011 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Even funnier when they don’t even consider being burned out from the season before as a possible reason for showing up to camp out of shape. Ego probably played its part also, but I don’t blame all of it on ego, and I don’t buy that DD doesn’t show enough commitment. Not when he’s leading everyone on the ice in ice time, every night.

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Even funnier when they don’t even consider being burned out from the season before as a possible reason for showing up to camp out of shape

    No coach in the league would buy that excuse

    For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.

    by Nut on Sep 15, 2011 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Didn’t he only play, like, six playoff games that year vs. the Canucks?

    by meetyourmako on Sep 15, 2011 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

    It was the lack of a goal early that influenced a lot, I think. He got his first goal in Nov. an his scoring rebounded in December.

    I think he was effing around in the 5 games at the beginning of the season, even before his concussion Oct 21st, but he was performing at a solid all around level long before the end of it.

    In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

    by Niesy on Sep 15, 2011 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

    kind of funny when people refer to his "slow start" because he showed up to camp out of shape.

    Just means the REST of the league was even MORE out of shape than Drew early last season.

    by Passemoilapuck on Sep 15, 2011 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

    so...

    …we held our ground for 6 games while he was out and won 5 when he returned… my memory sucks.

    What Would JeZus do?

    by Jack-Handy on Sep 15, 2011 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Well, I think it was a question of relative expectation. I think it was widely expected that the Kings would do worse than 3-3 without him, so .500 hockey looked pretty good at the time.

    "I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

    by DougX on Sep 15, 2011 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

    500 hockey without him last year + a better team this year. it all just goes to strengthen quisp’s argument.

    by jmsalsa_ on Sep 15, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Fear is not an option. DL drawing a line in the sand on 7 years (if the rumors are true) means negotiations are over. If DD wants to be a King he’s going to have to except, but I wish negotiations were still an option, and I don’t blame DD for any hold out, when DL is being just as stubborn either. There are plenty of other options that DL can do other than have your top defenseman miss time in your line up, like offering 6 years, and negotiating. That would be better than DD sitting out for any length of time, but apparently that’s not even an option.

    If the options are 1. Kings find out how well they can survive without DD, 2. re-open talks and sign DD to a mutually lucritive deal where both sides compromise, then I pick 2.

    No player coming out of his ELC should have a “long term or nothing” deal their first contract.

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 1:21 PM PDT reply actions  

    No player coming out of his ELC should have a "long term or nothing" deal their first contract.

    then the players shouldn’t have fought to lower the age of free agency.

    Wait till this year.

    by Quisp on Sep 15, 2011 1:58 PM PDT reply actions  

    Don’t see Chicago gnashing their teeth about that selfish guy Toews.

    In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

    by Niesy on Sep 15, 2011 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Also, I find it interesting that the owners aren’t responsible for things that they agreed to.

    In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

    by Niesy on Sep 15, 2011 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

    aren't they?

    I don’t really understand that comment in the context of Doughty. Everyone is bound by the CBA, which everyone agreed to. Not Doughty, obviously, because he was only 15 then. The thing is, one can only judge whether Doughty should take this or reject that, or whether Lombardi should offer whatever, in the context of the system, and it’s a system the players and the owners set up together, in order to make the most money for everyone involved. Doughty is not “entitled” to anything. He doesn’t have a contract. If he had a contract, he would be entitled to lots of different protections and benefits. If he thinks that he’s not being treated fairly by Kings management, then his recourse is to quit the NHL and go play in another league. He can ask politely for, or demand, a trade, but the Kings don’t have to grant it. The Kings hold all the cards, because the CBA deals them the cards, because that’s the way the teams and players agreed to do it. A club has control of a player’s rights for the first several years of the player’s career. That control is more or less absolute. If Doughty “deserves” $7MM a year, it’s because the market has decided he does…but there is no market, because he doesn’t have arbitration rights, so at the earliest what he “deserves” doesn’t enter into it until next year, when his arbitration rights kick in. I’m pretty sure if he sits this season out, he won’t have arbitration rights next year, though.

    That’s one of the reasons there are qualifying offers. Doughty has the right to accept that offer (provided the Kings renewed it, they expire after a couple of weeks), or any other offer that is still on the table.

    It’s in the Kings’ best interest to get Doughty under contract. But the notion that Doughty deserves this or that is based on a market that doesn’t exist for Doughty this year. Just like he could only get so much on an ELC. He’s not objectively worth x millions just because some other GM paid some other guy 1/2 x and Doughty is twice as good or whatever. Unless another GM is willing to tender an offer sheet, Doughty is worth whatever Lombardi says he’s worth.

    Wait till this year.

    by Quisp on Sep 15, 2011 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

    Amen!

    A moment of levity in a sea of panic!

    Kings own Doughty until he skates one more season.

    If DD really wanted to cash out ASAP, all he needed to do is sign the QO, skate his “cheap” season then let the arbiter make him a millionaire.

    Lombardi knows this, DD will make an average of $6m per year for the next 4 years no matter what be it contract or arbitration. He is simply put realistic about the predicament; if DD wants the path to the big bucks as fast as possible, there ain’t thing one Dean can do about it after this contract negotiation. So the line is drawn and the decision is on Drew.

    Sign the QO and get traded or play for the Kings for real good money for the next seven years.

    by Cirtes on Sep 15, 2011 7:09 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

    I had been thinking about Toews, and Kane……. and Crosby and whoever else was mentioned in the five year thing. And one thing that occurred to me is that (oh yeah, Stamkos) all of those players were on a one way trajectory of improved play. Not that that changes things dramatically, but had Drew been almost as solid last year as he was the year before, I think I’d be less concerned.

    by number 6 on Sep 15, 2011 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Here’s an interesting list: Doughty’s 40 point season compared to others roughly in his peer group.

    His 40 point year is still 7th best among defensemen his age since the lockout.

    On a 3 season average he’s ahead of Shea Weber at that point in his career, and Keith, and Seabrook, and many others. And that’s just point totals. Weber wasn’t on the top pairing back then. Phaneuf and Green were no where near facing competition like him.

    We also can’t make the Norris season last year disappear from the record. It’s there. And that affects negotiations.

    The Kings are trying to have it both ways. “We’re worried about you, yet we’re terrified of losing you in 5-7 years.” Either give him longer than 3 seasons by age 21 to prove himself more than he already has by budging on term, or pay 6MM+ for what he’s currently worth and his potential.

    If any of this is true, anyway. Aaagh.

    In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

    by Niesy on Sep 15, 2011 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

    the Kings aren't trying to have it both ways.

    Doughty is Kings’ property. He has no choice. They want a 7 year deal. Doughty can accept that, or go play in Europe.

    Wait till this year.

    by Quisp on Sep 15, 2011 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

    yes, and whether it’s Bettman, or whoever else…… the last CBA and the lockout was Supposed to Improve things. By seeing what is going on at the moment, it’s not exactly my personal idea of an improvement. In fact, I’d go so far as to say it’s my personal idea of a big mess. Backloaded contracts ala Kovalchuck who probably won’t even be playing (at least the one that didn’t pass), Hossa’s contract, Brian Campbell (like he’s really worth that money…. and there are another 15 dmen who would use him as a ref point), etc..
    And now the stuff around Doughty.

    All that to say, Quisp you’re absolutely spot on. I thought right from the git go that it was a -- idea to have moved up free agency to 27. Especially wrt to a dman. Everyone knows that it takes them usually three, four or five years to figure it out. Perfect, when they do then they can play the last year or two of that period for the team that drafted them (and had to deal with all their growing pains) just in time to walk.

    Sounds like not such an equitable idea if you ask me.

    by number 6 on Sep 15, 2011 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Would a 3 year deal work, with the money being somewhere in the low $20M’s? It would be nothing more than taking this negotiation and delaying it, possibly even making it a harder negotiation should DD prove to be an elite Dman and the salary cap decreases, but at least he would be in the fold now when the Kings are looking like a legitimate Cup contender this year. A lot can happen in 3 years.

    I can understand both sides of the negotiation and hope that this ends amicably, as the Kings obviously want DD to play the whole season (and much, much longer) and DD wants to have the ability to sign a mega deal at 26 years old. I don’t understand some folks getting mad at DD for trying to maximize his salary. Yeah it sucks that it may keep him off the ice, and he is putting himself ahead of the team, but the same people who are complaining about DD are the same folks who probably bitch and complain all the time that they are underpaid and deserve more income and yet they are giving DD the business because he is doing the same thing.

    by The Reddgie on Sep 15, 2011 3:22 PM PDT reply actions  

    Six years be perfect and maybe that’s what DL is leveraging towards by insisting on 7, then conceding at six. Consider:

    Quick/Bernier – 2 years left
    Brown/Greene – 3 years left
    Williams – 4 years left
    Kopitar – 5 years left
    Doughty – 6 years? left
    Johnson – 7 years left

    Of those players, only Williams isn’t considered part of the “core”.

    by sstephen17 on Sep 15, 2011 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

    only Williams isn’t considered part of the "core"

    I would think more of the core then Greene, but that will change in four years…if Greene is still around.

    Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

    by USHA#17 on Sep 15, 2011 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Greene is more leadership core. Or team comedian, lol.

    by sstephen17 on Sep 15, 2011 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Start saving early…Hockey Lay Away Plan

    Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

    by USHA#17 on Sep 15, 2011 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Nick Nickson joked at Hockey Fest that Richards had 24 years left on his contract, lol.

    by sstephen17 on Sep 15, 2011 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Why

    Why would the team pay more money for shorter term?
    I mean maybe if you think you want to do this all again after the CBA and right before he would go UFA … but it seems like if they are willing to do this now, what do you think they would be willing to do then?
    (By they I mean DD, Meehan is just a mouth piece)

    by kevin_ebel on Sep 15, 2011 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

    If it were short, I think $6-6.5 would be perfect for that.

    The shortest they are willing to go is 7 years, per McKenzie. But I mean shorter than that.

    In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

    by Niesy on Sep 15, 2011 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen sounds like a good line...
    I think Lombardi thinks the team will be able to weather the storm for 24 games. I’ve even started wondering if that wasn’t the point in adding Mike Richards and Simon Gagne (and Ethan Moreau, even Trent Hunter…). Sort of like a playoff run, in October/November. And in a backasswards way, Doughty sitting out would mitigate, even erase, all the irrational exuberance and high expectations surrounding the Kings this season

    This is more or less the same thought I had a few weeks ago. I completely agree.

    It seems like the reasoning could go further: How many teams would kill to have Drew Doughty as their “big off-season signing”?

    Thought Experiment #1.1: Summer Signings

    All other things equal, let’s say Drew Doughty hits the market as an unrestricted free agent at the beginning of the summer (i.e. pre-trades, pre-signings, pre-draft, etc.). Naturally, competition drives up the prices higher (in a way, I think that’s a reason why this is taking so long: Meehan wants a higher “market value”, but Doughty isn’t on the market, so DL can try signing him for cheaper than what Doughty “deserves”), but your team is looking to make a splash in the off-season and become serious contenders next season.

    As your team tries to make the biggest move towards winning the Cup, is your #1 target Drew Doughty or Brad Richards?

    Thought Experiment #1.2: Line in the Sand

    I think Lombardi thinks the team will be able to weather the storm for 24 games.

    How many games do the Kings have to lose at the beginning of the season before “scurrying” back to Camp Meehan? Or will it be scoring/defensive/special teams problems that will make them up the offer? On the other hand, how many games do they have to win before obliging Doughty in his wish to sit out completely?

    I think that I would have pursued Doughty harder than I would’ve lobbied for Richards (or anyone else, for that matter). Richards gets all the Kings’ horses and all the Kings’ men with video presentations galore… and Doughty gets…? He’s too valuable to leave out of the plan. There’s no way I would waste time in opening dialogue towards a compromise at this point… (I’d like to think that DL and Meehan are both getting at least a little more pliable by now…)

    Also, I don’t care as much about how many games the Kings win during the first 24 games of the season as much as I care about how many games the Kings can win in, say, April, May, and June… and I think Doughty needs to be there.

    by maxwellian_demon on Sep 15, 2011 4:15 PM PDT reply actions  

    Back to back Euro games (with airport time in between) followed five days later in NJ and Philly is quite road trip. It may be a while until we see what we got.

    My guess, the Euro trip and lag costs LA 2-4 points before returning home.

    Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

    by USHA#17 on Sep 15, 2011 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen sounds like a good line…

    :-D

    How about Schrodinger? If Drew Doughty holds out — so that we fans don’t see him, as if he was hidden in a box — how will we know whether he exists or not, until he ends his holdout and returns to the team?

    "I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

    by DougX on Sep 15, 2011 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

    I find it funny how everywhere I go to read about Drew Doughty, no one is as convinced as Kings blogs that there will be a holdout. Lyle Richardson said this morning he could easily see a deal getting done soon, Eklund (who granted is an idiot) thinks it will be done by training camp, Scott Cullen is tweeting that he’s picking Doughty in his fantasy league tonight, etc. And I think it’s because they’re looking at it more objectively than we are. They see that Drew wants 5 years at $7 million, and Dean wants 7 years at $6.8 million. They are so damn close that if they don’t compromise, then they;re both idiots.

    Anyway, I’ve let obsessing about this take up too much time lately. I’m glad I’m spending the next two days at the Toronto Film Festival watching a bunch of movies so I can forget about this for a few days.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 4:34 PM PDT reply actions  

    Ok, back to paranoid, since McKenzie just tweeted that the Doughty situation may be perilously close to going off the rails and that the next 24 hours is critical.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

    I think part of the reason too is that they haven’t really watched Doughty outside of the the last two playoff years and the Olympics (and they’re Canadian) so they have an idealized view of Doughty and less so of Kopitar, even though Kopitar is our most dominant player.

    For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled.

    by Nut on Sep 15, 2011 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Hey, I’m Canadian! And I’ve watched nearly every game Doughty has played at the NHL level. And I think some of them have watched Doughty outside of the playoffs. After it, it was on the NHL on TSN panel that they said that anyone who didn’t vote to nominate Doughty for the Calder trophy his rookie year, should never be allowed to vote for a hockey award again. And they have said nothing but great things about Kopitar – they called him the best player in the world not at the Olympics two years ago.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

    ok... I figured it out

    Drew just HATES the first day of camp. You know, that day when the players get a bunch of conditioning tests, and their weight taken. Followed by the next 2 days, which are really the “I know what you ate last summer” days. Ok… so he hates those first 3 days.

    So I think he’ll sign on Monday, as soon as he is told that the scale has been removed from the training room (or sooner if Penner broke it). Drew just wanted to have one last fat summer in his life – too much to ask for a 21 year-old?

    by Passemoilapuck on Sep 15, 2011 5:09 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

    It would be sooooooooo like the Kings to ruin something about to be this good.

    God damn it you both can’t be Clint Eastwood at the same damn time

    In Dinglebarn We Trust -- JftC

    by Niesy on Sep 15, 2011 5:26 PM PDT reply actions  

    On the bright side

    On the bright side this isn’t NYIsles … aren’t signed by camp in that organization … they pick up talks next summer.

    by kevin_ebel on Sep 15, 2011 5:30 PM PDT reply actions  

    Somehow I think that if they were in this situation with Doughty, and not Josh Bailey, they might change that rule.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Don't panic yet

    The differences are $200,000 and 2 years. It is just posturing, a deal will be signed. 6 years @ 6.8. Both sides can say they got what they wanted.

    by Osaka19 on Sep 15, 2011 5:37 PM PDT reply actions  

    Logically I know you’re right, and sometimes they makes me feel better. But logic doesn’t seem to have much to do with this anymore – on either side.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Logic

    Hoolie you’re so correct in your above statement. Logic has gone out the window.
    DougX below…. you too. Absolutely agree with you about ego and the war analogy. Pity that is.

    Also, after much reflection, while Doughty says he wants to be with the Kings, money is more important to him than being with the Kings. One can say as much as one wants, yes, it’s Meehan, blah blah. The fact is, if he was OK with 7 years he’d say, I’ll be 28… can sign a contract then (if he’s all that he’s cracked up to be) for whatever million a year. He’ll still be in his prime.

    Regardless of Meehans mojo, he Works for Doughty. if Doughty says “enough…. I’m fed up…. I’m not totally happy with 7 years but the money is good and I’m happy living in LA and playing for a team on the rise”. The other possibility is that it’s a combination of money and he harbors doubts about the Kings real potential.

    Or……. or….. it goes back to what DougX says. War of egos and they can’t find it in them to lower the 7 to 6 and get on with it. (I’m speaking of both sides). At That Point, if they still aren’t happy (dd and his agent and/or DL) because of the one year difference between 6 and 5, then they honestly need some help….

    by number 6 on Sep 15, 2011 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

    My instinct has been all along that the difference between the two sides isn’t really that great, and it’s just a game of chicken to see if one side can get a little more of what they want at the expense of the other. So I hope you’re right, and tend to think you’re right.

    But as Quisp has pointed out, the danger is that one side is underestimating the willingness of the other to stand firm. That’s how wars get started. :-/

    "I think you just outed yourself as Dean Lombardi. I knew it all along." — Rudy Kelly

    by DougX on Sep 15, 2011 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

    You’re right. As I have thought for a while now, this whole thing seems to be more about Lombardi’s and Meehan’s egos right now, and less about what is best for the team and the player.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 5:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

    I don’t know, that seems to be reading a bit too much into it I think. Certainly egos play a part, and I’m inclined to lean that way on Meehan (he does benefit directly $$$ from a better deal), but I don’t know what grounds there are to say that Dean’s ego is getting in the way of what’s best for the team. Frankly, I think he is doing exactly what is in the team’s best interests for the long term while Meehan is doing just what Doughty is paying him to do.

    Doughty is the one with a decision to make and ultimately has the most agency in the situation.

    by JZarris on Sep 15, 2011 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

    See I would agree with you, if it weren’t for the fact that the obvious answer to this question is right in front of their faces – 6 years at $6.8 million. I understand why you won’t give 4 or 5 years, because on the first you get no UFA years and on the second you have to sign Kopitar and Doughty at the same time. But I have heard no one make an argument as to why they think that getting Doughty for 7 years is so much more important than getting him for 6, that you risk getting Doughty for 0.

    Now, if it comes out that DL had offered a 6 year deal at $6.8 million, and Doughty turned it down, then I’d be inclined to agree with you. But the reports indicate that DL won’t budge off 7 years, and I think that’s more about ego than logic.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Dean not offering a 6 year deal yet is not a concern, but if doesn’t offer one soon it would blow my mind. He has to stand by that 7 year line a little in order make it look like he is giving up something ( assuming 6 years was ok all along). If he said 6 years was the line then he would be expected to drop to 5 years in the negotiations.

    I agree with you though, how could 7 be ok but not 6?

    by Osaka19 on Sep 15, 2011 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

    With only a few days to go before camp, the threat of a hold out, I would say there’s a problem if you haven’t already talked about it at least.

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

    I’m convinced DL only offered Doughty 9 years to start so that he could say he compromised and came down to 7. 9 years was a complete pipe dream. So perhaps, he’s just waiting for camp to start, and for Doughty to get nervous, and then give 6 years, so both sides can save face.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

    I would hope that isn’t the case because that would mean he’s also hanging Doughty out to dry with the fanbase. He’s gotta know what people are saying. DD’s well aware, and has already made a comment that he’s been reading what everybody is saying, and none of it’s true.

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

    He’s gotta know what people are saying.

    Well I for one am disgusted by what I’ve read and I know that a good guy like Drew Doughty would never be greedy. In fact, I bet he’d give me $1,000 if I asked him just because he’s that kind of guy.

    Drew, my address is

    The West Coast is the Best Coast.

    by RudyKelly on Sep 15, 2011 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

    I would hope that isn’t the case because that would mean he’s also hanging Doughty out to dry with the fanbase

    The fans will welcome Doughty back with open arms once he signs. Feelings are hurt right now, but once they get to see the Kings with Johnson as their number 1 defensemen, they’ll love Drew again.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Is that a requirement?

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

    That was for Rudy but the posts have a mind of their own.

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Yeah, I largely agreed you originally and still do. I’m with you on bending to a 6 year deal if the hit goes down, and I don’t particularly have a problem with paying Drew more than 6.8 per if they get to 7 years…the price of doing business goes up every year in my opinion.

    by JZarris on Sep 15, 2011 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Has a player ever held out over $200,000 in recent years? Has a GM not signed a star player over a year or two in length of contract and let him sit? When Dean went through this in SJ how far apart were the sides? What does each side gain and what do they lose by DD sitting? It seems to me that both sides lose more than they gain by DD holding out.

    by Osaka19 on Sep 15, 2011 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

    It’s not really about the $200,000, it’s about the two years between what Doughty wants and what Dean wants that is the problem.

    As to holdouts, we discussed this on another thread. The two most recent that anyone could remember were Brandon Dubinsky, who signed about a week into camp, and Ilya Kovulchuk, who signed with Atlanta on October 8, 2005. The last time a star player held out for a whole year? I think it was Michael Peca in 2000-2001 with Buffalo. And yes, Don Meehan was his agent. Peca was traded after that year btw.

    by Hoolie on Sep 15, 2011 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Deja Vu

    OK I looked up the Nabokov hold out in SJ. Dean wanted to sign him 5-6 years but the most Nabokov’s camp would go is 3 years. He ended up signing a 2 year deal so it was all about the terms then also. Oh and of course Meehan was his agent.

    by Osaka19 on Sep 15, 2011 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Yashin held out around that time too from what I remember

    by ShahofToronto on Sep 15, 2011 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

    Have a Look at Hammond's Poll

    The ongoing results are very impressive…overwhelming.

    Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

    by USHA#17 on Sep 15, 2011 8:16 PM PDT reply actions  

    DD’s taking a hit for sure. Some do have good reasons (not my reasons) for blaming DD, but I suspect most just want it done, and think DD should cave in no matter what"s going on.

    by defrim65 on Sep 15, 2011 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

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