Kings-Centric Points-Blown Standings

by Quisp on Jan 11, 2012 2:02 PM PST

A new year means the return of the points-blown standings. I've been getting a lot of requests for these (most of which are along the lines of "WTF!"). I know some of you hate them. That's fine. There are enough standings variations in the world to keep everyone happy. My own, which I call points-blown (or points-squandered) simply corrects for games-played by focusing entirely on points you didn't get in the games you've played. A loss is two points-blown. An OTL/SOL is one point-blown.

"But why don't you just sort by W%? Isn't that easier?"

It's easier, but it doesn't tell me what I want to know, which is, how many games does team x (ahead of me in the standings) have to lose before we're even. For example, Nashville has a W% of .595. The Kings are at .569. What's that 2 and 3/5ths percent worth in the standings? What do the Kings need to do to catch up? I can't picture .026 in the standings. So, choose among:

Nashville is .026 ahead of the Kings.
Nashville is one point ahead of the Kings, with a game in hand.
Nashville is three points-blown ahead of the Kings.

Actually, you don't have to choose, because each is useful. That's the point.

KEY:

Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM.
PRJ is projected point total for 82 games.
TO 98 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. I'm trying to be conservative. It could be 95-97 points.
PB is points-blown.
8th+/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
LA+/- is the distance in points-blown between that team and the Kings.
GD is goal-differential.
GP is games-played.
OSR is "old school record", in which all ties after regulation are treated as ties. One point.
OSP is "old school points".
Qcl is clustered points, which corrects for variance in games-played and then rounds point totals to the nearest multiple of 5. The idea is to emphasize which teams are bunched together, or, to put it another way, are "more or less tied." It may be useless or annoying. Feel free to ignore.

Click on the headers to sort.

[I just noticed that the site needs to be set to "wide" view in the right margin of the page, in order for the chart not to get mangled]

Q	NHL		W/L/OTL	PTS	W%	PRJ	to 98	PB	8th+/-	LA+-	GD	GP	OSR	OSP	Qcl
1	3	SJS	23-11-5	51	0.6538	107.2	21-16-6	27	9	10	22	39	18-14-7	43	55
2	2	STL	25-12-5	55	0.6548	107.4	19-16-5	29	7	8	21	42	25-12-5	55	55
3	1	VAN	27-14-3	57	0.6477	106.2	18-15-5	31	5	6	36	44	25-14-5	55	55
4	4	CHI	25-13-5	55	0.6395	104.9	19-15-5	31	5	6	14	43	21-15-7	49	55
5	5	DET	26-15-1	53	0.6310	103.5	20-15-5	31	5	6	36	42	25-16-1	51	55
6	6	NAS	23-15-4	50	0.5952	97.6	22-14-4	34	2	3	0	42	20-18-4	44	50
7	9	DAL	23-17-1	47	0.5732	94.0	23-12-6	35	1	2	-5	41	21-17-3	45	50
8	7	MIN	22-15-6	50	0.5814	95.3	22-13-4	36	0	1	-4	43	17-17-9	43	50
9	8	LAK	21-15-7	49	0.5698	93.4	22-12-5	37	-1	0	-2	43	18-18-7	43	50
10	11	PHX	20-17-6	46	0.5349	87.7	24-11-4	40	-4	-3	-2	43	18-20-5	41	45
11	10	COL	23-20-1	47	0.5341	87.6	23-10-5	41	-5	-4	-9	44	16-21-7	39	45
12	12	CGY	20-19-5	45	0.5114	83.9	24-9-5	43	-7	-6	-18	44	19-22-3	41	45
13	13	EDM	16-22-3	35	0.4268	70.0	29-6-6	47	-11	-10	-8	41	15-22-4	34	35
14	14	ANA	13-22-6	32	0.3902	64.0	31-5-5	50	-14	-13	-31	41	12-24-5	29	35
15	15	CBJ	11-26-5	27	0.3214	52.7	33-2-5	57	-21	-20	-41	42	8-27-7	23	25

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Comments

Hooray for points-blown standings!

Those 7 OTLs are sticking out like a sore thumb, though. What did the Kings have last year, around now…1 OTL? All those shootout points they got last year aren’t coming this year, but I guess that was expected. Regression to the mean, and all that.

I’m still trying to decide if that means the team is playing better this year compared to last year. They’re in pretty much the same spot they were last year standings-wise, but are doing it with fewer Bettman points. Is that being skewed by them playing more games than everyone near them?

by WindyMan on Jan 11, 2012 2:43 PM PST reply actions

Last season after 43 games

Kings were 23-19-1.

Who can say who’s “better,” but I’d take this team over last year’s even though they’re in virtually the same place. Reason being is that the defense has reached an elite level as has the goaltending. So even though the team is losing more in OT, they’re losing fewer in regulation. If they’re going to lose the game, they might as well get a Bettman point. And playing elite D gives them a greater probability of getting at least a point out of the game than straight up losing it.

I also believe the chances of the goals-for average rising is greater than that of the goals-against average lowering. An awesome defense, once in place, will give you a chance to win every game. I’d rather have a team be elite in one respect and lousy in the other than slightly above average in both.Easier to focus on bettering one aspect of the game than the whole of it. And I’d much rather the elite part is in their own end.

Since DS says he hasn’t touched the D and his changes are exclusively on the offense, I can only imagine that the team will inevitably get better in this respect. So bravo to TM for establishing an elite team game on the back end. But the bravo’s just about end there.

by Uni on Jan 11, 2012 4:53 PM PST up reply actions

the other thing about last season after 43 games

last January after 43 the Kings still had four games to go in their hideous 2-10 run (they went 1-3 in those last four).

JFTC / on Twitter / on Facebook

by Quisp on Jan 11, 2012 6:10 PM PST up reply actions

Great post Uni.

the chances of the goals-for average rising is greater than that of the goals-against average lowering.

This is the crux. It’s also what makes Jon Quick’s accomplishments so incredible – and so required. His numbers are amazing overall, but when you look at his current 6-3 run over the past 9 games … he gave up 1, 1, 1 goals in those 3 losses (and still got us a point in 2 of them.)

We need points, and we need goals to assure us those point – but I feel real good about our chances going forward.

by OneTimer. on Jan 12, 2012 10:02 AM PST up reply actions

For what it’s worth, as a possession team, the Kings have gone from middle of the road (15th) last year, around 50%, to 8th in the league (52%), in company with teams like Chicago and Philadelphia. That dramatic jump happened when Murray left and Stevens took over, and not coincidentally decided to take a philosophical shift in the makeup of the third line.

They were only treading water to start the season, but things are going in a much, much better direction now. Goals will come.

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 12, 2012 11:15 AM PST up reply actions

Not to mention how much more exciting the games are with puck possession, too.

I’ve actually been on the edge of my seat watching some recent offensive zone cycles just wiping out the other team’s energy. I’m optimistic some of those chances are going to go in also.

It’s like they’re actually playing the puck, and the team, rather than a one-size-fits-all system that preaches shooting the puck like it’s going to explode the minute you cross the blue line.

by Uni on Jan 12, 2012 1:52 PM PST up reply actions

Aaaaaa-men.

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 12, 2012 4:41 PM PST up reply actions

thanks man

and yeah, to get a points out of games when they scored 1 or no goals is definitely incredible.

by Uni on Jan 12, 2012 1:48 PM PST up reply actions

Interesting that when looking at old school points, San Jose is WAY lower and Dallas is WAY higher than the Quisp or NHL standings. Tells you something about their overtime habits this year…

Always a fan of the points blown standings, thanks

by maxwellian_demon on Jan 11, 2012 4:18 PM PST reply actions

By this chart, having played less games they have less points to blow.

What’s interesting is we can see how far back the Kings really are. Say SJ were to blow all four games in hand. They would still be ahead of LA

Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

by USHA#17 on Jan 11, 2012 5:53 PM PST up reply actions

Just noticed....

…how “Old School” points and records match the Points Blown standings.

Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

by USHA#17 on Jan 12, 2012 7:37 AM PST up reply actions

Wooooo!

"The beating hearts of other creatures are like needles in my brain. Only once I have silenced them all will I have peace." -Owen Nolan
Battle of California

by Megalodon on Jan 11, 2012 5:05 PM PST reply actions

In the last month or so, the Kings have improved their points pace from 84 to about 94, with a low of 82 on the 14th, 15th, 18th, and 19th of December. Sutter took over on the 22nd, IIRC.

by BobKnob on Jan 12, 2012 2:19 PM PST reply actions