Kings-Canucks Preview: Province of Persecution

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 2:50 PM PST in Game Previews

Since we last rang in the New Year with the Vancouver Canucks...

IN: David Booth returned from his knee injury.

OUT: Andrew Ebbett (collarbone), Sami Salo (concussion). Salo is a great guy with terrible luck. Why, hockey gods? Is he your version of Job?

Possible Canucks Lineup:

D. Sedin-H. Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Kesler-Booth
Hansen-Hodgson-Raymond
Malhotra-Lapierre-Weise

Hamhuis-Bieksa
Rome-Edler
Alberts-Ballard

Luongo

Kings Lineup:

Brown-Kopitar-Williams
Penner-Richards-Stoll
Richardson-Loktionov-Lewis
Clifford-Fraser-Hunter

Scuderi-Doughty
Mitchell-Voynov
Johnson-Greene

Quick*

*But it's not baseball

Game Outlook: According to the fair, august, and in no way hysterical writers at The Province, no one should be able to beat the Canucks. If they do, it's because the other teams are bullies (the Canucks are boy scouts, you see), or benefiting from a conspiracy, or because the Canucks themselves just decided to take a day off.

This conspiracy is probably going to see the Canucks win their division again. They've even managed to beat teams in southern markets in the postseason. Bettman! How could you allow this? What kind of conspiracy are you running! Oh, I get it. It's subtle. They allow that just to throw us off the scent.

Nevermind, Gary. You're a genius.

In reality, this should have the makings of a spirited contest. Possession-wise, the Canucks are slightly better on the whole when the score is close (they are particularly better when down by 1-2 goals). The Kings are a smidge better when the score is tied. That's my nerd way of saying the Kings are hanging with some good company.

All that matters: points, points, points.

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wowzers

the Annoying Peasant

by Robert_P. on Jan 17, 2012 3:17 PM PST reply actions

No Kings

…. but at least a Wayne Simmonds?

by maxwellian_demon on Jan 17, 2012 5:50 PM PST up reply actions

It’s always useful to look at the different ways teams use players. It definitely affects their production.

On the Flyers, Simmonds gets power play tim, is given verrry favorable zone starts, and isn’t on the shutdown line. It shouldn’t be surprising that his scoring is up.

On the Kings, he wouldn’t be getting that treatment, and not just because Brown and Williams would be ahead of him. Different philosophies.

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 5:59 PM PST up reply actions

Random stat for you

Kopitar has 42 points out of the Kings’ 102 goals on the season, meaning that he has a point on 41.2% of the Kings’ goals. Despite his long scoring droughts, this is the third highest percentage of any other team’s leading scorer, behind only Stamkos (41.3%) and Tavares (41.7%). Other percentages for the top-30 scorers who are also leading their team in scoring:

Malkin (38.06%), Selanne (38.05%), Eberle (37.7%), Vanek (36.6%), Kessel (35.04%), Benn (35%), Sedin (34.9%), Versteeg (34.8%), Giroux (34.0%), Elias (33.9%), Backstrom (33.6%), Datsyuk (33.56%), Spezza (32.2%), Hossa (32%), Vrbata (31.7%), and Seguin (26.1%)

by maxwellian_demon on Jan 17, 2012 6:22 PM PST up reply actions

That is interesting….but not surprising. Just goes to show how much the Kings depend upon just one line.

Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?

by USHA#17 on Jan 17, 2012 6:43 PM PST up reply actions

Is there a stat for where someone’s shift ended? Like who got them the offensive zone start in the first place.

And I’m not sure, but I’m assuming this is data is collected only from faceoffs. So if the gingers come onto the ice on the fly and the puck is in the o-zone, it doesn’t count towards these numbers. Is that right?

by BobKnob on Jan 17, 2012 3:31 PM PST reply actions

Behind the net has offensive zone start percentage (how many times a player is sent out to take a draw in the o-zone vs the d-zone), and zone finish, so you can see if there are any patterns. (Offensive Zone Finish % = Offensive Zone Finishes / Offensive Zone Finishes + Defensive Zone Finishes).

This also affects a player’s shot differentials, since it’s more likely you’re going to be on the ice for a shot against when you’re out there for a defensive faceoff, and more likely to be around for a shot for in the o-zone. Thus, if someone has high Corsi, you can see how much they’re benefiting from cushy situations.

Vancouver has maximized the offensive capabilities of the Gingers by giving them many o-zone faceoffs for a while now, to an extreme degree compared to most of the league. Right now almost 80% of their draws are there! That’s just wow.

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 5:08 PM PST up reply actions

I forgot to say you can see everything I’m talking about by clicking on the link posted up there by Rick.

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 5:11 PM PST up reply actions

Also, CAN’T WAIT for all the unbiased, completely sane, logical and 100% completely rational Canuck fans to post here tonight.

by BobKnob on Jan 17, 2012 3:35 PM PST reply actions

The game preview over at Nucks Misconduct declares that Vancouver is so deep right now, they only have to play solidly for 60-70% in order to win.

by klink3115 on Jan 17, 2012 4:24 PM PST up reply actions

*Excuse me, 60-70% of the game.

by klink3115 on Jan 17, 2012 4:25 PM PST up reply actions

Vancouver has a way of winning hearts and minds, don’t they?

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 5:11 PM PST up reply actions

Kings %’s drop dramatically once their up. Kind of drives me crazy that when the Kings are winning, they say “here you go, lets make this a real contest”.

by defrim65 on Jan 17, 2012 4:09 PM PST reply actions

If it makes you feel any better, they’re improving in that department. It got pretty bad under Murray. Like almost at the bottom of the league terrible. They were right above NYI.

Are you familiar with this phenomenon called “score effects”? You expect the team that’s ahead to sit back and protect a lead, and you expect the team that’s behind to pour it on and take more chances. Not only did the Kings protect a narrow lead to an extreme degree, at one point under TM they were spending more time in their own zone even when they were down by one!

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 5:15 PM PST up reply actions

Hockey’s version of the prevent defense.

Hey, have fun with that snowstorm, Niesy ;)

by SCSF on Jan 17, 2012 6:06 PM PST up reply actions

My dog keeps eating snow. I haven’t driven anywhere in two days. Only walking. The grocery stores are running out of produce. All because this region can’t justify lots of snowplows for storms that last only a week.

Even if it messes up the roads — at least it’s pretty!

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 6:51 PM PST up reply actions

Hadn’t heard the term “score effects”, but that is something that I had pointed out for a while judging by possession stats, and many would just spout off the Kings record holding the lead going into the 3rd period, and how perfect they were holding that lead. I thought I was off somewhere on what happened as soon as we score, but I couldn’t figure out how to explain it properly.

by defrim65 on Jan 17, 2012 6:11 PM PST up reply actions

They had a lot of success last year scraping by, so I don’t think they felt they needed to change. But it’s still a nailbiting, risky strategy. Very taxing to the goalie and the defense, who need to be perfect.

The Kings in “Protect Lead Mode” do a good job of boxing out the middle and getting to rebounds — but another way to protect the lead is to not spend so much time in your zone in the first place.

Dinglebarnin' It JftC

by Niesy on Jan 17, 2012 6:30 PM PST up reply actions