Points-Blown Standings: will 95 points be good enough in the West?
by Quisp on Jan 20, 2012 7:11 AM PST
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PrintRecently, I said I thought 98 points was the safe target to make the playoffs in the West. However, I was looking at the numbers over at www.sportsclubstats.com, and noticed that 95 points is good enough to squeak into the playoffs in 95% of the simulations. Last season, I'm pretty sure the 95% threshold wasn't crossed until 96 or 97 points (yes, it's true, I'm too lazy to check the JftC archives). I did do some quick counting though, and discovered that the Western teams are on track for about 12 fewer "loser points" than last season, so that might account for the discrepancy. Last year, the actual, final line in the sand (as opposed to the predicted one) turned out to be 97 points.
KEY:
- Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
- NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM.
- PRJ is projected point total for 82 games.
- TO 95 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold.
- PB is points-blown.
- 8th+/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
- LA+/- is the distance in points-blown between that team and the Kings.
- GD is goal-differential.
- GP is games-played.
- OSR is "old school record", in which all ties after regulation are treated as ties. One point.
- OSP is "old school points".
- Qcl is clustered points, which corrects for variance in games-played and then rounds point totals to the nearest multiple of 5. The idea is to emphasize which teams are bunched together, or, to put it another way, are "more or less tied." It may be useless or annoying. Feel free to ignore.
Click on the headers to sort.
[it is sometimes the case that the site needs to be set to "wide" view in the right margin of the page, in order for the chart not to get mangled]
| Q | NHL | W/L/OTL | PTS | W% | PRJ | to 95 | PB | 8th+/- | LA+- | GD | GP | OSR | OSP | Qcl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | STL | 28-12-6 | 62 | 0.6739 | 110.5 | 14-17-5 | 30 | 10 | 10 | 23 | 46 | 27-13-6 | 60 | 65 |
| 2 | 1 | DET | 31-15-1 | 63 | 0.6702 | 109.9 | 14-17-4 | 31 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 47 | 27-16-4 | 58 | 60 |
| 3 | 3 | SJS | 26-13-5 | 57 | 0.6477 | 106.2 | 17-17-4 | 31 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 44 | 20-16-8 | 48 | 60 |
| 4 | 5 | CHI | 28-13-6 | 62 | 0.6596 | 108.2 | 14-16-5 | 32 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 47 | 24-16-7 | 55 | 60 |
| 5 | 2 | VAN | 28-15-4 | 60 | 0.6383 | 104.7 | 15-15-5 | 34 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 47 | 26-15-6 | 58 | 60 |
| 6 | 6 | NAS | 27-16-4 | 58 | 0.6170 | 101.2 | 16-14-5 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 24-19-4 | 52 | 60 |
| 7 | 7 | LAK | 23-15-10 | 56 | 0.5833 | 95.7 | 17-12-5 | 40 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 48 | 19-19-10 | 48 | 55 |
| 8 | 10 | DAL | 24-19-2 | 50 | 0.5556 | 91.1 | 20-12-5 | 40 | 0 | 0 | -7 | 45 | 21-19-5 | 47 | 50 |
| 9 | 9 | MIN | 22-18-7 | 51 | 0.5426 | 89.0 | 20-11-4 | 43 | -3 | -3 | -15 | 47 | 17-20-10 | 44 | 50 |
| 10 | 8 | COL | 25-21-2 | 52 | 0.5417 | 88.8 | 19-10-5 | 44 | -4 | -4 | -13 | 48 | 18-23-7 | 43 | 50 |
| 11 | 11 | PHX | 21-19-8 | 50 | 0.5208 | 85.4 | 20-9-5 | 46 | -6 | -6 | -4 | 48 | 19-22-7 | 45 | 50 |
| 12 | 12 | CGY | 22-20-6 | 50 | 0.5208 | 85.4 | 20-9-5 | 46 | -6 | -6 | -20 | 48 | 20-23-5 | 45 | 50 |
| 13 | 13 | ANA | 16-22-7 | 39 | 0.4333 | 71.1 | 26-7-4 | 51 | -11 | -11 | -21 | 45 | 15-25-5 | 35 | 40 |
| 14 | 14 | EDM | 17-25-4 | 38 | 0.4130 | 67.7 | 26-5-5 | 54 | -14 | -14 | -16 | 46 | 16-26-4 | 36 | 40 |
| 15 | 15 | CBJ | 13-28-5 | 31 | 0.3370 | 55.3 | 30-2-4 | 61 | -21 | -21 | -42 | 46 | 10-29-7 | 27 | 30 |
Some observations:
- I don't think Anaheim is going to finish the season 26-7-4 or better. Of course, anything is possible. But I'm crossing the Ducks, Oilers and Blue Jackets off the list of teams that can make the playoffs.
- The Blues are much better than they appear in the official standings.
- The Canucks are much worse.
- 5th through 12th are separated by 12 PB, 6 PB above the 8th seed and 6 PB below. That's a slightly bigger spread of points and slightly fewer teams in contention than in the last few years.
- That would contribute to the lower projected playoff threshold.
- The Kings lead the conference in "loser points" with 10. To me, this is a good thing.
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17-12-5?
Yea … I think we got that no problem- given the way we’ve been playing under DS, altogether.
shhh!
this is hockey here, guys! that means we need to be superstitious, hold off on shaving every now and then, carry around pyramids (well ok, we’re not the leafs circa 1976 so maybe not) and worry about tempting fate. while we’re at it, the quacks are on a 6-0-1 roll or something close to it.
Sure, we make the playoffs at 17-12-5...
…and get the 7/8 seed and have to play CHI/STL/DET in the first round… FUN!
I want to see this team get the 4/5 seed for once. The 3 is probably out of the question (SJ is probably going to take it easily).
by circasurvive on Jan 20, 2012 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
Four games in hand make San Jose the likely shoo-in for 5th or better. That fills the top five.
LA has two games left vs the Preds. IMO, those two games will determine if the Preds lock LA out of 6th
One is back to back after playing the Ducks—so at least travel won’t factor. The other, a road game proceeded by a 48 hour break for both clubs.
With all the Bettmans the Kings are slowing opening a gap…but two clean losses and things change quickly. What I do not like is the 3 games in hand currently held by Dallas.
If only the Kings could pick up their scoring pace slightly.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
I’m trying to see that… Your thinking LA will overtake them in the Pacific?
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
I’ve been noticing over the last week or so that the Kings actually seem to have fairly solid hold on a playoff spot in that the teams closest behind them don’t have any games in hand that would allow them to pull even, much less leapfrog. In other words, all other things being even, they won’t catch the Kings. That’s a pretty nice place to be in, considering where they were two months ago.
I’m not particularly worried about seeding at this point. I don’t there’s going to be much difference in consequence between the 5-8 seeds.
"I see my life flashing before my eyes... and it's boring!." — Gumball Watterson
Barring injury, I still think the Kings can catch San Jose. We’ve been playing relatively well, especially on the road. And I have to think DL is going to do something by the deadline if in fact Gagne is out for the rest of the year and we get some cap room to work with.
Could be, could be. Even without trading for a replacement for Gagne, The trend line is still up. They haven’t exactly been slumping without him.
Given the chance to play (and he’s getting it with Gagne out), I think Lokti will continue to improve over the remainder of the season.
"I see my life flashing before my eyes... and it's boring!." — Gumball Watterson
He’s certainly getting smarter. He might benefit along the boards by adding a touch of weight and some strength conditioning.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
Loktionov’s line has suprisingly spent a lot of time on the attack, more than I would have thought for a line with three fast but small players. He’s got got some great offensive instincts; I’d actually like to see if he can get Penner going.
What they need to do is start scoring some freaking goals.
by HawaiiKingsFan on Jan 20, 2012 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
hey,
I live on the Big Island, born and raised. Lived in the mainland for 6 years (army), got relatives in Torrance..seen a lot of Kings games. Where you from?
by Hawaii5point0 on Jan 20, 2012 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
St. Louis is really good this year. Against the Wings they are 2-2 with the Wings winning the last two…the latest by 3-0
They handed us our ass 5-0 before falling 3-2 in the second game.
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
No
We handed them their ass 5-0. Moot point though since that was pre-Hitchcock.
Personally I think anyone from the Central Division would be scary in the playoffs, especially in the first round. It’s funny to think that I’d prefer facing off against SJ or Van, but not only do I think Kings would fare better against both but I think the rivalries that are already in place from past seasons would make a great playoff series for hockey.
The Kings have a 73% of making the playoffs and an 8% chance of winning the division. Most likely to finish as the 7th seed.
SJ’s PDO is currently at 1011. The Kings is 988.
3 year avg PDO coming into this year SJ = 1004. Kings 997.
I am biased but I think the probability is way higher than 8%. The Kings will have to get at least 18 wins to get there though.
the Kings have more road games than home games on the remaining scheduled. SJ’s is even.
The Kings have a slightly tougher strength of schedule.
PDO? Thanks in advance…looked and the links/charts yesterday and still could not glean…
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
Probably a Stupid Question
But how do you add shooting percentage and save percentage when skaters only have the former and goalies only have the latter?
sharks games in hand
has anyone looked at the schedule to figure out when the sharks catching up in games played?
off topic:
from the mayor:
coach Darryl Sutter says he expects goalie Jonathan Bernier to play more in the final 32 games than he did in the first 50.
The Kings lead the conference in “loser points”
I resent that.
Kidding aside, why is this a good thing? My initial sentiment is negative, owing to the fact the Kings went 0-3 in overtime games in last year’s playoffs. That’s hard to do in a single series, and I wouldn’t care for them to do that again…
The team’s “keep-it-close/defense-first” style lends itself to overtime games: the Kings have gone to the extra period 17 times this year, or more than a third of all games this season. That’ tops in the league by a few (the league average is 10).
At the same time, it seems like taking a game to OT would/should benefit this team’s style: mind your defense and finish the game off by grinding the other team into a pulp. And yet we lead the league in loser points… (Our record in OT is 3-4; I’m too lazy to figure out where that sits league-wide).
by maxwellian_demon on Jan 20, 2012 1:49 PM PST reply actions
yeah i prefer “decaf points” or “diet points”. All the pleasures of losing without the losing!
by Robert_P. on Jan 20, 2012 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
One consideration is how poorly the club has done in shoot outs this year. Had we won just two more shoot outs and we are in 6th and everything looks rosy.
Also, look at the old school points and the real points, no Bettman points and we are tied with Dallas…boo
Are Teemu Selanne and Melanie Griffith Twins?
you can look at it both ways, of course
if you’re losing (in OT/SO) games you should have won, that’s not good. The fact that the Kings have 1 regulation loss since sutter’s arrival suggests that the Kings have been taking their OT/SOLs from the regulation loss column. And that’s good because it’s additional points.
The shoot-out is a statistical crap-shoot and OT is not much better.
Very well said, Quisp. At least when the Kings have had to accept a loss, they’re getting a Bettman point out of it. I was initially hugely skeptical of the Sutter hiring when it went down. I can now say with confidence that Daaryl and DL have pleasantly proven my skepticism wrong.
"We will come with our guns blazing, and we just blazed." - Tim Leiweke
by DodgerBlueBalls on Jan 21, 2012 1:46 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
A bit of an aside
but I really like the Kings’ schedule in February. I think it’s crucial that they put together some win streaks next month because March gets much tougher.
And really, I’d prefer it this way as better prep for the playoffs.
Thanks, Teddy!
Tampa beats Dallas at Dallas, 2-1. Both goals by Purcell. Helping the Kings, even though he’s no longer with the team.
"I see my life flashing before my eyes... and it's boring!." — Gumball Watterson
We have to beat the Avs tomorrow
That way, we can start distancing ourselves from 8th (with MIN and DAL sliding)…
Alcohol may be man's worst enemy, but the bible says love your enemy.
"My goodness, this is delicious. Hitler! That's a lovely tie you're wearing. You're Goebbels!" -Lewis Black
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