Since You Asked: Premature 50 Game Evaluation

by Quisp on Jan 23, 2012 1:58 PM PST

Lineup change, and one before the break " LA Kings Insider
SUTTER: "I look at it as tonight is Game 50 [...]. Tomorrow will be a harder day for the players than today is. Tonight is Game 50, and where are you? How does that mathematically equate to, say, where you were last year at this point? Or what it’s going to take it set it up for those last 32, what you’re going to have to have. Whatever that number is going to be, in terms of being a playoff team, we’re a team that’s going to finish 50 (games) tonight. Then you should be able to sort of figure what you have to have.’’

I was going to do this over the break, but Coach Sutter has set it up too well. I can't resist.

How does that mathematically equate to where you were last year at this point?

The Kings currently have 56 points after 49 games, which is 3 points ahead of last year's pace.
Last year, the Kings had 55 points after 50 games (i.e. they won game 50). So even if the Kings lose tonight to the Sens, they will be ahead of last year's pace (by a point).
Last season, the Kings had just completed their nearly season-crushing 2-10-0 streak (games 36-47) and were two games into their massive season-saving hot streak, which saw them go 20-4-5, getting them to 94 points after game 76. Then Kopitar broke his foot and, well, you know the rest.
Sutter didn't ask about how this season stacks up against seasons previous to last year, but here's a chart anyway.

The left-most column indicates the game number. Next to that is the rank of this year's point total compared to the other seasons shown. Red indicates losing streaks going back a couple of seasons. Green is the Sutter Era. (Check out the 2006 column, which is way ahead of the pack; you might recall this as the season which ended with the wheels falling off, Sean Avery yelling at coaches in practice and getting suspended by the team, Andy Murray getting fired, the Kings missing the playoffs, Dave Taylor losing his job and...enter Dean Lombardi.)

#	R	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999
1	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	2
2	3	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	2	4	1	2	4	2
3	10	3	4	4	2	2	4	4	4	6	1	4	4	4
4	7	5	6	6	4	2	4	6	6	6	3	5	6	5
5	3	7	8	8	4	2	4	6	6	7	3	7	7	6
6	1	9	8	8	6	2	4	8	8	8	4	7	9	6
7	1	11	10	8	6	4	5	10	8	10	6	8	9	8
8	3	11	12	8	7	4	7	12	8	10	6	8	10	8
9	1	13	12	10	7	6	8	12	8	12	8	8	10	10
10	1	14	14	12	7	8	8	14	10	13	8	10	12	10
11	3	14	16	14	8	10	8	14	12	15	8	12	14	10
12	6	14	18	16	10	12	8	16	14	15	9	12	16	11
13	5	15	20	17	12	12	8	18	15	15	9	12	18	11
14	7	15	22	18	14	14	10	18	17	17	9	14	20	13
15	6	17	24	20	16	14	11	20	18	17	11	16	21	13
16	8	17	24	22	16	16	11	21	18	18	11	18	21	13
17	6	19	24	22	16	17	13	23	20	18	13	19	22	13
18	5	21	24	22	18	17	13	25	20	20	13	21	24	13
19	5	23	26	24	19	17	14	25	22	21	13	22	26	13
20	6	23	26	24	19	17	16	27	22	22	14	24	28	13
21	6	25	26	26	21	17	16	29	22	24	15	26	28	15
22	4	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	24	24	17	26	28	15
23	5	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	26	25	19	27	30	15
24	3	28	28	28	23	21	18	33	27	27	19	28	31	15
25	3	30	30	30	24	21	20	33	28	27	21	28	33	15
26	4	30	32	30	26	22	22	33	30	27	21	30	34	15
27	6	30	33	32	26	22	22	33	31	29	22	30	35	17
28	8	30	35	34	28	24	22	33	32	31	22	32	37	19
29	8	30	35	36	30	24	24	35	34	33	24	34	37	19
30	9	30	37	37	31	26	24	35	34	33	25	36	39	19
31	8	32	37	39	32	26	26	37	36	35	27	37	39	19
32	8	32	39	41	32	26	26	37	37	37	29	37	39	21
33	8	34	41	43	32	26	28	39	38	37	31	38	39	23
34	8	36	43	45	34	26	29	41	39	37	33	38	39	23
35	8	37	45	45	34	26	29	43	39	39	35	38	40	25
36	6	39	45	47	36	26	29	45	40	39	35	38	40	27
37	5	41	45	47	36	26	29	45	41	39	36	40	42	29
38	4	42	45	47	38	26	31	47	41	39	37	42	42	31
39	4	44	45	47	38	28	33	49	42	39	37	42	43	33
40	3	45	45	47	40	30	33	50	43	41	39	42	45	34
41	3	47	47	49	40	32	33	52	43	41	41	42	45	34
42	3	47	47	51	40	32	35	54	44	41	43	44	45	36
43	3	49	47	53	40	32	37	56	45	41	45	46	46	36
44	3	50	49	53	41	32	38	56	46	43	45	46	48	36
45	3	52	49	53	43	34	38	56	47	43	47	48	48	36
46	2	53	49	53	45	36	38	58	49	44	49	50	50	36
47	2	55	49	55	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	50	38
48	3	56	51	57	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	52	38
49	3	56	53	57	49	40	38	60	53	46	53	52	52	38
50	?	?	55	59	51	40	38	61	54	46	55	52	54	40

What it's going to take it set it up for those last 32?

Back on December 19, I wrote this:

98 points: what the Kings need, when the Kings need it - Jewels From The Crown

The Kings have 50 games left, 32 points. Let's pretend the playoff threshold will be 98 points. Could be a couple of points less, but counting on that would be foolhardy. So let's go with 98: the Kings need 66 points in their final 50 games. That's a .660 point-percentage the rest of the way. Last season, when their rock-bottom was in the middle of January, the Kings needed to go approximately .700 the rest of the way, and they did it, finishing on a 22-8-5 tear. This year, it's not as steep a climb, but it's longer (since we crapped out earlier - yay?). To get to 98, the Kings would need some version of 33-17-0. If you want to throw in the statistically-likely number of OT/SOLs, make it 31-15-4.

That's doable. Especially for a team that's supposed to be one of the best in the Conference.

I broke the games down into blocks of (usually) six or seven games, with an eye toward making the breaks as natural as possible (i.e. the beginning of a road-trip or home-stand). The green line is the All-Star break. The red line is the trade deadline. In general, the Kings need to win 4 for every 2 they lose.

R is days of rest. Hr is hours between games. TP is total points. P is points needed for that block of games. Rec is record.

As you can see, I targeted 57 points through game 50. Which means we're one point away with one game left. So far so good.

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19-10-4

Like you, I, brake the season into “blocks”. I do 8 game blocks because that’s about 10% of the season … easy for me to look at trends and project out … anyway …
19-10-4 record from today would get us to 98 points
Beginning game 57 (February 12th) we play 25 out of 26 games against Western Conference teams.
8 of the 26 games are against Pacific Division rivals
It’s all in our hands.
Let’s see some of the PRIDE _ POWER _ PASSION

by kevin_ebel on Jan 23, 2012 2:31 PM PST reply actions

Tonight’s game is big in that you want to go on the long break with a win instead of a two game losing streak.

On a side note, I liked seeing Loktionov with Penner and Richards late in the game. I hope that continues and that Sutter keeps it intact for the PP.

by sstephen17 on Jan 23, 2012 3:01 PM PST reply actions

it would be a 3-game losing streak…

by Garrett79 on Jan 23, 2012 7:01 PM PST up reply actions

HOLY CRAP, Look at those last 25 games!

The schedule makers didn’t do us any favors. Then again, I guess this also reflects just how many quality opponents there are in the West.

Let’s get those points early, Kings.

by Doughty99 on Jan 23, 2012 3:21 PM PST reply actions

Yeah those are some tough ones

But February is comparatively kind. Like I’ve said before, the Kings really need to bank some points next month.

I have Quisp’s blocks of games charts saved and I update it after every game, so I’m crossing my fingers that I’ll be inputing some win streaks.

by Uni on Jan 23, 2012 3:26 PM PST up reply actions

I forgot how incredible last year's run was.

Given that the Ducks handed the Kings two straight losses at the end, going 20-2-5 up to game 80 is just insane.

As for tonight’s game, I feel quite optimistic from an intangible viewpoint. I’d imagine Sutter will be really fired up to win this game before break, and since he’s proven to be a strong motivator I look forward to the Kings playing great.

by Uni on Jan 23, 2012 3:23 PM PST reply actions

Where’d everybody go? 5 comments on an awsome thread worthy of geekdom. Great job Quisp. Gives me something to stare at for a while without getting bored (unlike work).

by defrim65 on Jan 23, 2012 6:07 PM PST reply actions

Well, I glanced at the title and read “premature” +"evaluation" and figured I had stumbled onto the wrong page.

Quisp, if there was any intent at all there then this was a classic.

by JZarris on Jan 23, 2012 6:34 PM PST up reply actions

Data overload… there’s just so much to process…

by maxwellian_demon on Jan 23, 2012 6:40 PM PST up reply actions

defrim, you're a riot

by number 6 on Jan 23, 2012 8:11 PM PST up reply actions

One small issue

Remember Quisp the post you did earlier in the season which showed projected goals? I think they might be doing the impossible by actually doing worse than what you projected.
But I’ll tell you what, as astonishing as that run was last year, they also won a bunch of those in shootouts etc. They aren’t getting that done this year. No Zus and Stoll needs a seeing eye dog to find the net (it’s that red frame down there with the guy with the mask in front of it).

So while the 19-19-4 thing sounds nice, I’d also need to ask where exactly they’re gonna get all of those goals to help accomplish that.

by number 6 on Jan 23, 2012 6:49 PM PST reply actions

i expect a trade

JFTC / on Twitter / on Facebook

by Quisp on Jan 23, 2012 7:02 PM PST up reply actions

Trade

I do as well.
Was hoping they wouldn’t … but seems like the guys are forceing it.
Not that I don’t think they need a winger … but for reasons previously stated, would feel better if they did it during the off season.
Maybe Lou will move Parise … he has a history of moving guys that wont sign at the trade deadline. Don’t think that would be prudent for us though. Parise seems bent on testing the market.
/shrug … as I said … I do as well … hope they don’t.

by kevin_ebel on Jan 24, 2012 5:43 AM PST up reply actions

Sorry, I mean the 19-10-4 totals…. typo …. the 9 is right next to the zero. How revealing.

by number 6 on Jan 23, 2012 6:50 PM PST reply actions

The zero looks like an o. lol

by defrim65 on Jan 23, 2012 6:56 PM PST up reply actions

Quisp, I think you’d really enjoy playing around with the data more. Go download Tableau Public. The tool you use to create charts/tables is basically the same as Tableau Professional, but without the ability to import data from a few types of datasources. Excel files and CSV’s are allowed though, and I imagine that’s where you have the data anyways. You can publish the chart and they give you code to embed it into a webpage. Not sure if SBN allows it but you might as well try. You can always export to an image or pdf I believe.

by BobKnob on Jan 23, 2012 7:33 PM PST reply actions

a longer conversation. i'm interested but have no time right now to drill deeper

JFTC / on Twitter / on Facebook

by Quisp on Jan 23, 2012 9:42 PM PST up reply actions

alobarisright
at
gmail

by BobKnob on Jan 23, 2012 10:26 PM PST reply actions

that’s fer yer post above

by BobKnob on Jan 23, 2012 10:26 PM PST up reply actions

how many points to make the playoffs

Do you still look at 98 points as the target? Right now it looks like 91 points would be enough to make the plaoffs in the West.

by fanofkings on Jan 24, 2012 4:18 PM PST reply actions

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#	R	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999
1	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	2
2	3	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	2	4	1	2	4	2
3	10	3	4	4	2	2	4	4	4	6	1	4	4	4
4	7	5	6	6	4	2	4	6	6	6	3	5	6	5
5	3	7	8	8	4	2	4	6	6	7	3	7	7	6
6	1	9	8	8	6	2	4	8	8	8	4	7	9	6
7	1	11	10	8	6	4	5	10	8	10	6	8	9	8
8	3	11	12	8	7	4	7	12	8	10	6	8	10	8
9	1	13	12	10	7	6	8	12	8	12	8	8	10	10
10	1	14	14	12	7	8	8	14	10	13	8	10	12	10
11	3	14	16	14	8	10	8	14	12	15	8	12	14	10
12	6	14	18	16	10	12	8	16	14	15	9	12	16	11
13	5	15	20	17	12	12	8	18	15	15	9	12	18	11
14	7	15	22	18	14	14	10	18	17	17	9	14	20	13
15	6	17	24	20	16	14	11	20	18	17	11	16	21	13
16	8	17	24	22	16	16	11	21	18	18	11	18	21	13
17	6	19	24	22	16	17	13	23	20	18	13	19	22	13
18	5	21	24	22	18	17	13	25	20	20	13	21	24	13
19	5	23	26	24	19	17	14	25	22	21	13	22	26	13
20	6	23	26	24	19	17	16	27	22	22	14	24	28	13
21	6	25	26	26	21	17	16	29	22	24	15	26	28	15
22	4	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	24	24	17	26	28	15
23	5	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	26	25	19	27	30	15
24	3	28	28	28	23	21	18	33	27	27	19	28	31	15
25	3	30	30	30	24	21	20	33	28	27	21	28	33	15
26	4	30	32	30	26	22	22	33	30	27	21	30	34	15
27	6	30	33	32	26	22	22	33	31	29	22	30	35	17
28	8	30	35	34	28	24	22	33	32	31	22	32	37	19
29	8	30	35	36	30	24	24	35	34	33	24	34	37	19
30	9	30	37	37	31	26	24	35	34	33	25	36	39	19
31	8	32	37	39	32	26	26	37	36	35	27	37	39	19
32	8	32	39	41	32	26	26	37	37	37	29	37	39	21
33	8	34	41	43	32	26	28	39	38	37	31	38	39	23
34	8	36	43	45	34	26	29	41	39	37	33	38	39	23
35	8	37	45	45	34	26	29	43	39	39	35	38	40	25
36	6	39	45	47	36	26	29	45	40	39	35	38	40	27
37	5	41	45	47	36	26	29	45	41	39	36	40	42	29
38	4	42	45	47	38	26	31	47	41	39	37	42	42	31
39	4	44	45	47	38	28	33	49	42	39	37	42	43	33
40	3	45	45	47	40	30	33	50	43	41	39	42	45	34
41	3	47	47	49	40	32	33	52	43	41	41	42	45	34
42	3	47	47	51	40	32	35	54	44	41	43	44	45	36
43	3	49	47	53	40	32	37	56	45	41	45	46	46	36
44	3	50	49	53	41	32	38	56	46	43	45	46	48	36
45	3	52	49	53	43	34	38	56	47	43	47	48	48	36
46	2	53	49	53	45	36	38	58	49	44	49	50	50	36
47	2	55	49	55	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	50	38
48	3	56	51	57	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	52	38
49	3	56	53	57	49	40	38	60	53	46	53	52	52	38
50	?	?	55	59	51	40	38	61	54	46	55	52	54	40

#	R	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999
1	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	2
2	3	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	2	4	1	2	4	2
3	10	3	4	4	2	2	4	4	4	6	1	4	4	4
4	7	5	6	6	4	2	4	6	6	6	3	5	6	5
5	3	7	8	8	4	2	4	6	6	7	3	7	7	6
6	1	9	8	8	6	2	4	8	8	8	4	7	9	6
7	1	11	10	8	6	4	5	10	8	10	6	8	9	8
8	3	11	12	8	7	4	7	12	8	10	6	8	10	8
9	1	13	12	10	7	6	8	12	8	12	8	8	10	10
10	1	14	14	12	7	8	8	14	10	13	8	10	12	10
11	3	14	16	14	8	10	8	14	12	15	8	12	14	10
12	6	14	18	16	10	12	8	16	14	15	9	12	16	11
13	5	15	20	17	12	12	8	18	15	15	9	12	18	11
14	7	15	22	18	14	14	10	18	17	17	9	14	20	13
15	6	17	24	20	16	14	11	20	18	17	11	16	21	13
16	8	17	24	22	16	16	11	21	18	18	11	18	21	13
17	6	19	24	22	16	17	13	23	20	18	13	19	22	13
18	5	21	24	22	18	17	13	25	20	20	13	21	24	13
19	5	23	26	24	19	17	14	25	22	21	13	22	26	13
20	6	23	26	24	19	17	16	27	22	22	14	24	28	13
21	6	25	26	26	21	17	16	29	22	24	15	26	28	15
22	4	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	24	24	17	26	28	15
23	5	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	26	25	19	27	30	15
24	3	28	28	28	23	21	18	33	27	27	19	28	31	15
25	3	30	30	30	24	21	20	33	28	27	21	28	33	15
26	4	30	32	30	26	22	22	33	30	27	21	30	34	15
27	6	30	33	32	26	22	22	33	31	29	22	30	35	17
28	8	30	35	34	28	24	22	33	32	31	22	32	37	19
29	8	30	35	36	30	24	24	35	34	33	24	34	37	19
30	9	30	37	37	31	26	24	35	34	33	25	36	39	19
31	8	32	37	39	32	26	26	37	36	35	27	37	39	19
32	8	32	39	41	32	26	26	37	37	37	29	37	39	21
33	8	34	41	43	32	26	28	39	38	37	31	38	39	23
34	8	36	43	45	34	26	29	41	39	37	33	38	39	23
35	8	37	45	45	34	26	29	43	39	39	35	38	40	25
36	6	39	45	47	36	26	29	45	40	39	35	38	40	27
37	5	41	45	47	36	26	29	45	41	39	36	40	42	29
38	4	42	45	47	38	26	31	47	41	39	37	42	42	31
39	4	44	45	47	38	28	33	49	42	39	37	42	43	33
40	3	45	45	47	40	30	33	50	43	41	39	42	45	34
41	3	47	47	49	40	32	33	52	43	41	41	42	45	34
42	3	47	47	51	40	32	35	54	44	41	43	44	45	36
43	3	49	47	53	40	32	37	56	45	41	45	46	46	36
44	3	50	49	53	41	32	38	56	46	43	45	46	48	36
45	3	52	49	53	43	34	38	56	47	43	47	48	48	36
46	2	53	49	53	45	36	38	58	49	44	49	50	50	36
47	2	55	49	55	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	50	38
48	3	56	51	57	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	52	38
49	3	56	53	57	49	40	38	60	53	46	53	52	52	38
50	?	?	55	59	51	40	38	61	54	46	55	52	54	40

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Jewels From The Crown -

Since You Asked: Premature 50 Game Evaluation

How does that mathematically equate to where you were last year at this point?

What it's going to take it set it up for those last 32?

Do you like this story?

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#	R	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999
1	1	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	2
2	3	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	2	4	1	2	4	2
3	10	3	4	4	2	2	4	4	4	6	1	4	4	4
4	7	5	6	6	4	2	4	6	6	6	3	5	6	5
5	3	7	8	8	4	2	4	6	6	7	3	7	7	6
6	1	9	8	8	6	2	4	8	8	8	4	7	9	6
7	1	11	10	8	6	4	5	10	8	10	6	8	9	8
8	3	11	12	8	7	4	7	12	8	10	6	8	10	8
9	1	13	12	10	7	6	8	12	8	12	8	8	10	10
10	1	14	14	12	7	8	8	14	10	13	8	10	12	10
11	3	14	16	14	8	10	8	14	12	15	8	12	14	10
12	6	14	18	16	10	12	8	16	14	15	9	12	16	11
13	5	15	20	17	12	12	8	18	15	15	9	12	18	11
14	7	15	22	18	14	14	10	18	17	17	9	14	20	13
15	6	17	24	20	16	14	11	20	18	17	11	16	21	13
16	8	17	24	22	16	16	11	21	18	18	11	18	21	13
17	6	19	24	22	16	17	13	23	20	18	13	19	22	13
18	5	21	24	22	18	17	13	25	20	20	13	21	24	13
19	5	23	26	24	19	17	14	25	22	21	13	22	26	13
20	6	23	26	24	19	17	16	27	22	22	14	24	28	13
21	6	25	26	26	21	17	16	29	22	24	15	26	28	15
22	4	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	24	24	17	26	28	15
23	5	26	26	28	23	19	18	31	26	25	19	27	30	15
24	3	28	28	28	23	21	18	33	27	27	19	28	31	15
25	3	30	30	30	24	21	20	33	28	27	21	28	33	15
26	4	30	32	30	26	22	22	33	30	27	21	30	34	15
27	6	30	33	32	26	22	22	33	31	29	22	30	35	17
28	8	30	35	34	28	24	22	33	32	31	22	32	37	19
29	8	30	35	36	30	24	24	35	34	33	24	34	37	19
30	9	30	37	37	31	26	24	35	34	33	25	36	39	19
31	8	32	37	39	32	26	26	37	36	35	27	37	39	19
32	8	32	39	41	32	26	26	37	37	37	29	37	39	21
33	8	34	41	43	32	26	28	39	38	37	31	38	39	23
34	8	36	43	45	34	26	29	41	39	37	33	38	39	23
35	8	37	45	45	34	26	29	43	39	39	35	38	40	25
36	6	39	45	47	36	26	29	45	40	39	35	38	40	27
37	5	41	45	47	36	26	29	45	41	39	36	40	42	29
38	4	42	45	47	38	26	31	47	41	39	37	42	42	31
39	4	44	45	47	38	28	33	49	42	39	37	42	43	33
40	3	45	45	47	40	30	33	50	43	41	39	42	45	34
41	3	47	47	49	40	32	33	52	43	41	41	42	45	34
42	3	47	47	51	40	32	35	54	44	41	43	44	45	36
43	3	49	47	53	40	32	37	56	45	41	45	46	46	36
44	3	50	49	53	41	32	38	56	46	43	45	46	48	36
45	3	52	49	53	43	34	38	56	47	43	47	48	48	36
46	2	53	49	53	45	36	38	58	49	44	49	50	50	36
47	2	55	49	55	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	50	38
48	3	56	51	57	47	38	38	58	51	44	51	52	52	38
49	3	56	53	57	49	40	38	60	53	46	53	52	52	38
50	?	?	55	59	51	40	38	61	54	46	55	52	54	40