Marc Crawford says the playoff threshold could be high 80s in the West

Can that be? Let's look at the sportsclubstats numbers. Not the "chance of making the playoffs" numbers. The part where they show if point total x for each team is good enough to make the playoffs, expressed as a percentage. Generally, I use the 90% and 95% markers to determine what's very and extremely likely (respectively).

Here are the bubble teams and the points needed for each to exceed a 95% likelihood of making the playoffs.

  • Anaheim -- 95 points
  • Colorado -- 95 points
  • Calgary -- 95 points
  • Los Angeles -- 95 points
  • Dallas -- 94 points
  • San Jose -- 94 points
  • Chicago -- 94 points
  • Phoenix -- 94 points
And here are the odds of making the playoffs for each of those teams when finishing with 89 points:
  • Anaheim -- 9.7%
  • Colorado -- 10%
  • Calgary -- 13%
  • Los Angeles -- 9.3%
  • Dallas -- 19.9%
  • Chicago -- 24.5%
  • San Jose -- 15.9%
  • Phoenix -- 21.8%
Hm. I have to say, as stupid as Marc Crawford sometimes seems to be, I have to say those odds for Dallas, Chicago and Phoenix are higher than I expected. I wonder what accounts for that. (I hope I don't have to eat my hat)
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