Can that be? Let's look at the sportsclubstats numbers. Not the "chance of making the playoffs" numbers. The part where they show if point total x for each team is good enough to make the playoffs, expressed as a percentage. Generally, I use the 90% and 95% markers to determine what's very and extremely likely (respectively).
Here are the bubble teams and the points needed for each to exceed a 95% likelihood of making the playoffs.
- Anaheim -- 95 points
- Colorado -- 95 points
- Calgary -- 95 points
- Los Angeles -- 95 points
- Dallas -- 94 points
- San Jose -- 94 points
- Chicago -- 94 points
- Phoenix -- 94 points
And here are the odds of making the playoffs for each of those teams when finishing with 89 points:
- Anaheim -- 9.7%
- Colorado -- 10%
- Calgary -- 13%
- Los Angeles -- 9.3%
- Dallas -- 19.9%
- Chicago -- 24.5%
- San Jose -- 15.9%
- Phoenix -- 21.8%
Hm. I have to say, as stupid as Marc Crawford sometimes seems to be, I have to say those odds for Dallas, Chicago and Phoenix are higher than I expected. I wonder what accounts for that. (I hope I don't have to eat my hat)
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