Monday Logjam: Points Blown

Here's this week's games for the logjammed teams. Four of the seven will make the playoffs. Opponents in parentheses are outside the logjam.


PTS ROW MON TUES WED THUR FRI SAT SUN
CHI 88 35 (CBJ) (VAN) (NAS)
DAL 83 33 PHX (VAN) CGY
PHX 83 30 DAL COL SJS (STL)
COL 83 30 CGY PHX (VAN)
LAK 82 30 SJS (STL) (BOS)
SJS 82 29 (ANA) LAK (BOS) PHX
CGY 81 31 COL (MIN) DAL

And here are the points-blown standings:

Q NHL W/L/OTL PTS W% PRJ to 93 PB 8th+/- ROW ROW+- GD GP SS SSGR
1 1 STL 46-19-8 100 0.6849 112.3 n/a 46 16 42 12 47 73 2 1
2 2 VAN 43-20-8 94 0.6620 108.6 n/a 48 14 36 6 43 71 1 1
3 5 NAS 42-22-8 92 0.6389 104.8 0-9-1 52 10 38 8 20 72 LAK 0
4 4 DET 44-24-4 92 0.6389 104.8 1-9-0 52 10 37 7 47 72 DET 0
5 6 CHI 40-25-8 88 0.6027 98.8 2-6-1 58 4 35 5 10 73 LAK 0
6 9 SJS 36-25-10 82 0.5775 94.7 5-5-1 60 2 29 -1 13 71 -1 3
7 3 DAL 39-28-5 83 0.5764 94.5 5-5-0 61 1 33 3 -3 72 LAK 0
8 10 LAK 35-25-12 82 0.5694 93.4 5-4-1 62 0 30 - 9 72 - -
9 7 PHX 36-26-11 83 0.5685 93.2 4-3-2 63 -1 30 0 3 73 tie 0
10 8 COL 39-30-5 83 0.5608 92.0 4-2-2 65 -3 30 0 -1 74 COL 1
11 11 CGY 34-26-13 81 0.5548 91.0 6-2-1 65 -3 31 1 -17 73 -1 1
12 13 MIN 29-32-10 68 0.4789 78.5 n/a 74 -12 22 -8 -46 71 2 1
13 12 ANA 30-32-11 71 0.4863 79.8 n/a 75 -13 27 -3 -23 73 LAK 0
14 14 EDM 28-36-8 64 0.4444 72.9 n/a 80 -18 24 -6 -23 72 -3 2
15 15 CBJ 23-42-7 53 0.3681 60.4 n/a 91 -29 19 -11 -65 72 tie 0

KEY:

  • Q = my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
  • NHL = the official standings, via NHL.COM.
  • PRJ = projected point total for 82 games.
  • TO 93 = the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold.
  • PB = points-blown.
  • 8th+/- = the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
  • ROW = regulation plus OT (but not SO) wins. The first tie-breaker.
  • ROW+- = the difference between the Kings' ROW and that team's.
  • GD = goal-differential.
  • GP = games-played.
  • SS = season series, the Kings' point differential against the opponent in question.
  • SSGR = games remaining against that opponent.
  • Click on the headers to sort.
Some observations:
  • The chances of 93 points being good enough to make the playoffs are about 50:50, but I'm keeping 93 as the so-called presumed threshold because the figure is bouncing around wildly (between 93 and 95) day to day.
  • After San Jose's game tonight, they will have played the same number of games as the Kings.
  • SJS and LAK have games in hand on the rest of the log-jam.
  • SJS and LAK are doing better than the official standings indicate.
  • COL, PHX and (especially) DAL are doing worse
  • The Kings are in good shape re ROWs against all the log-jammers except Calgary (one behind) and Dallas (three behind). Well, they're five behind Chicago, but I don't think we're catching them anyway.
  • The odds of ROWs deciding who makes it and who doesn't are pretty good, I think.
  • Not as easy week for any of those teams.
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