Mid-Series Scoring Chance Review - Kings vs Blues

Harry How

Before tonight's pivotal game 5, we'll take a quick look at how scoring chance numbers have broken down thus far. If you're unacquainted with the scoring chance project, read more about it here. Basically, during each game I keep track of scoring chances which are generally defined by shots within this area of the ice.

People have found that there is a very heavy correlation between scoring chances and possession numbers. Yet, scoring chances are still useful in smaller samples. It's just another layer of information we can take into account when trying to analyze a team's performance. Also, more than anything, they are probably the most accessible entry point for people who are curious about looking into new types of hockey stats.

(Tables are sortable. Also, please note that I've adjusted the individual numbers to a "per 60 minute" basis.)

Even Strength - Forwards - Scoring Chances per 60

EV TOI Chances FOR Chances AGAINST Chance +/- EV TAKEN
Lewis 55.0 15 4 11 0
Penner 48.9 12 7 5 6
Williams 67.3 15 12 3 10
Stoll 51.5 8 7 1 3
Kopitar 65.3 10 9 1 3
Brown 67.9 11 11 0 3
Fraser 26.3 14 16 -2 0
Richards 57.3 16 19 -3 5
Clifford 36.9 15 18 -3 5
Richardson 12.6 14 19 -5 0
King 50.1 12 18 -6 5
Carter 64.1 10 19 -8 3
Nolan 16.4 4 22 -18 0
"Taken" means they recorded the chance themselves with a shot directed at net.
  • Trevor Lewis is known for his defensive abilities and that has manifested itself so far this post-season. He leads all Kings in chance differential and he's done it mainly by suppressing chances. He has only been on ice for 4 scoring chances against per 60 minutes of even strength ice time. Even more impressive considering Lewis has started more of his shifts in the defensive zone than in the offensive zone.
  • Justin Williams has been incredible. He has taken more scoring chances than any other player in the series. He's recording 10 scoring chances every 60 minutes at even strength. A staggering number.
  • It's a bit of surprise to see Jeff Carter toward the bottom of this list. The Blues have been successful in neutralizing him as he only has taken 3 scoring chances per 60. His regular season mark of 6.5 lead the Kings, so he is registering chances at half that rate.

Even Strength - Defense - Scoring Chances per 60

EV TOI Chances FOR Chances AGAINST Chance +/- EV TAKEN
Voynov 75.3 16 10 6 1
Regehr 68.6 11 10 1 0
Scuderi 75.7 11 13 -2 0
Martinez 24.9 14 17 -2 0
Doughty 87.0 10 13 -3 1
Muzzin 54.6 13 16 -3 0
Ellerby 30.2 8 18 -10 0
  • Who have been Kings best defensemen this post-season at denying scoring chances at evens? Robyn Regehr and Slava Voynov with 10 allowed per 60 minutes of ice time at even strength. Even more impressive for Regehr is the fact that he has started far more of his shifts in the defensive end than in the attacking zone.
  • Keaton Ellerby has had a very rough series. He has been on ice for the most chances allowed while also being on ice for the least chances for. As a result, he has seen his ice time dwindle down to almost nothing and is on the verge of being scratched.

Even Strength - Team - Scoring Chances

Period Kings Blues +/-
1 13 10 3
2 18 19 -1
3 8 14 -6
OT 3 2 1
Total 42 (50)* 45 (62)* -3 (-12)*
*= Scoring chances at all strengths.
  • The Kings have been slightly out-chanced 42-45 at even strength so far. They have slowly but surely been gaining ground after their miserable performance in game one when they were out-chanced 7 to 19.
  • They are lagging behind at all strengths having been out-chanced 50-62. One reason for this is that the Kings have spent about 8 minutes more on the penalty kill than on the power play so far in this series. The other reason is that their power play has been very poor at times and not only have they not been able to generate a lot of chances, they've allowed the Blues a lot of short-handed opportunities.
  • The home team has out-chanced the road team so far in every game this series. The Kings will likely need to break that trend in order to pull ahead.

For the Blues scoring chance stats: click here.

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