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Having just posted my thoughts on tonight's Rich Hammond post, I find that I wasn't the only one. Here's Surly and Scribe:

Lombardi And Drew Doughty’s Agent Set The Parameters On His Deal Two Weeks Ago? That Sounds Familiar, Doesn’t It? " S U R L Y & S C R I B E L.A. Kings Hockey Blog

On July 28, we told you the following about Drew Doughty’s contract status:

Just heard from our source minutes ago. Are you excited? I am excited. The L.A. Kings and Drew Doughty may have an agreement in principle on a long-term deal that may no longer have a NMC provision as a stumbling block. I am told there is also a "back up" 5 year deal in place. Everyone chatted via conference call and it ended well with a happy Drew. The devil is always in the details so this is not done and I expect both sides will continue to feed the media the work in progress lines, as quite bluntly they should, until the contract is signed. It could take a while still to finish it. Let’s hope that’s only days (and not weeks) away.

Counting today, July 28 was 14 days ago…or 2 weeks ago. From Rich Hammond today:

There have been no new discussions in the past two weeks. The Kings have a long-term offer on the table, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the issue extend into late August, or perhaps even into September. It’s worth noting that Doughty’s agent, Don Meehan, also represented Evgeni Nabokov(notes) when, in 2002, Nabokov held out before signing a contract with the San Jose Sharks (and then-GM Lombardi) in late October. As for the current Doughty negotiations, Lombardi said today, "I think it’s fair to say that in the last conversation, we set the parameters, as to where we feel his contract should be. We talked about a number of scenarios, and I guess now it’s their move. They never really responded."

So, their last discussion was 2 weeks ago…check. It was about a long-term deal…another check.

That's not news. 

According to Lombardi, "we" (referring to Dean Lombardi and Doughty’s agents) set the "parameters" 2 weeks ago as to where both sides feel his contract should be

Lombardi does not say that "we" refers to Meehan, and he does not say that "both sides" agreed to the parameters. If you look back at Lombardi's past comments, "we" usually means Lombardi and other people who work for Lombardi. "The Kings organization."

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Lombardi: Not much new on Doughty front " LA Kings Insider

[...] we’ll jump back into things with the latest update on the Drew Doughty contract talks, courtesy of a chat today with Dean Lombardi. There have been no new discussions in the past two weeks.

Keep this in mind when tracking rumors. Nothing has happened for two weeks. Nobody has talked to anybody. I would have to go back and read old posts, but it seems to me that's the norm, rather than the exception. There were a few weeks of silence before the draft, and a couple of weeks of silence after the draft (during the whole free agency hoopla). Mostly, there is just no talking. 

And I think I know why. There's NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT. You've got money, and term. You can have a no-move or no-trade in five years, or not. You can have it be a level salary year to year, or front-loaded, or back-loaded. That's it. The Standard Player Contract is boilerplate. 

They're not talking because they don't agree on money and term and maybe on the no-move/trade clause. This is not a labyrinthine process. It's fill-in-the-blanks. 

The Kings have a long-term offer on the table, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the issue extend into late August, or perhaps even into September.

See? Kings have an offer on the table, and have had one on the table since mid-July, which is the last time they spoke. The reason there has been no progress is that Meeghty (yes, I'm sticking with that moniker for Doughty/Meehan; it's summer, we have to self-amuse) hasn't submitted a counter-offer. They're content to wait.

It’s worth noting that Doughty’s agent, Don Meehan, also represented Evgeni Nabokov when, in 2002, Nabokov held out before signing a contract with the San Jose Sharks (and then-GM Lombardi) in late October.

I think it's worth noting that Rich thinks this is worth noting. He's notoriously level-headed and conservative in his interpretations. The fact that he thinks a comparison to Nabokov is in any way germane tells me that it's now quite reasonable to be thinking about the possibility of Doughty holding-out. 

As for the current Doughty negotiations, Lombardi said today, "I think it’s fair to say that in the last conversation, we set the parameters, as to where we feel his contract should be. We talked about a number of scenarios, and I guess now it’s their move. They never really responded."

They never really responded. Lombardi made a concrete offer, and additionally discussed a number of alternatives. Meeghty can either (1) accept the offer, (2) reject the offer but continue negotiations in the direction of one of the discussed alternatives, (3) reject the offer and the suggested alternatives, but make their own counter offer, or (4) reject everything and make no counter. 

They chose #4. That's what not responding to an offer means. 

I would also point out that when Lombardi says "we set the parameters as to where we feel his contract should be" he's saying that Meeghty knows the range of possibilities, within which the Kings are willing to negotiate. Outside of that range (the "perameters"), there's no point in talking. 

So they're not talking. 

And how about the fact that the Shea Weber award happened inside the latest two-weeks of silence? I'm not even sure how to interpret that, other than to say it's pretty clear that Meeghty expects Lombardi to "widen" his parameters, and Lombardi is not in the habit of blinking. Neither is Meehan, come to think of it. He doesn't give a shit if Doughty holds out. And I think Lombardi will be content to let Viatcheslav Voynov, Thomas Hickey, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin and Nicolas Deslauriers stretch their wings in camp while Doughty gives interviews about being in great shape and looking forward to get back with the team. 

I had been preparing an update on my post of a few weeks back in which everyone was invited to predict what the Doughty contract would look like and when it would be signed. I made a little chart that shows the dates everyone chose (grouped by week).

I was going to comment on the general optimism reflected in these predictions, but it turns out I don't have much to say about it. Most people thought this would be over by now. I predicted September 2 myself, but if I were making a prediction today, I would go with something closer to November. AEG might blink, or Doughty might, but I don't think Lombardi or Meehan are going to. 

I would not be surprised to find out that this comment was supposed to be off-the-record. [UPDATE: Rudy points out in the comments that "this is pretty clearly a plant by Dean to make Doughty nervous." I'm kind of embarrassed I didn't think of that.]

Kings assistant Ferreira been around rink a few times | Jim Alexander | PE.com | News for Inland Southern California

[...] Ferreira's has been a life often spent on the road, and his current role as special assistant to Kings president/general manager Dean Lombardi -- the continuation of a relationship that goes back four decades -- is no different. [...] He is a valuable complement to Lombardi and assistant GM Ron Hextall, filling in whatever gaps need to be filled and contributing the instincts and wisdom of the hockey lifer.[...] Today's Kings are still at a negotiating stalemate with defenseman Drew Doughty , a restricted free agent. That situation got no easier Wednesday when an arbitrator awarded Nashville's Shea Weber, a more experienced defenseman, $7.5 million for one year.

"This year we were up in Toronto for the scouting combine and Dean had some meetings with Newport Sports (Doughty's agents)," Ferreira said. "He came back and they were discussing what went on, and I just looked at him and said, 'Dean, they don't want to make a deal. They're not ready to make a deal.' That's gonna be a tough one. I would not be surprised if he was a holdout. I went through it with Paul Kariya, and Dean's been through it."

More validation for my irrational gut instinct on this situation. 

(hat-tip to Bobby Scribe for digging up this article; how it eluded my Google Alerts I'll never know)

Further Reading on Doughty Mania:

Shea Weber, Drew Doughty & Market Value " S U R L Y & S C R I B E L.A. Kings Hockey Blog
Shea Weber received an award of $7.5 million for one season. That makes him the highest paid defenseman in the league. For one season. That does not establish "market" value for top defensemen who seek contracts for more than a season, anymore than Surly getting lucky with a hot, drunk, 20 something year old blonde who is angry at her ex boyfriend, on one random night establishes his target market for the rest of his potential scores.

Surly, having enjoyed the company of the hot, drunk, twenty-something angry-at-her-ex-boyfriend blonde, might well decide to hold out till he gets a similar deal long-term, no matter how much his friends counseled him to the effect of "you've got to be f-ing kidding me." 

Also, in this analogy, Surly needs to believe he is much hotter and younger than the ex-boyfriend.

Whatever it was Drew Doughty was asking for, it just went up. I know it's apples-to-oranges. I know Shea Weber had arbitration rights and Doughty doesn't. I know Weber is a half a decade older. I don't think it matters. Of course it matters to Lombardi's argument. Doughty/Meehan can just argue that -- even if everything Lombardi is saying is true -- the market for defensemen just went up, for everyone. 

And, that's just one more reason for Doughty to want to get to UFA sooner. 

The Hockey News: Headlines: Predators defenceman Shea Weber receives US$7.5-million award in arbitration
A salary arbitrator has made Nashville Predators defenceman Shea Weber the NHL's highest-paid blue-liner. Weber received a US$7.5-million, one-year award on Wednesday. The decision came one day after the Predators captain went through team-elected arbitration. It's the highest award ever granted and puts Weber ahead of Florida Panthers defenceman Brian Campbell and his $7.14-million cap hit. Weber had 48 points (16-32) in 82 games last season and was a finalist for the Norris Trophy.

Not that I'm being a pessimist or a Cassandra. It's just that every time someone says "it'll get done, it'll get done," I think...why is that, again? I'm not saying we're doomed or anything. I just don't see why people are so sure this will all get worked out before training camp. 

Make your prediction in the comments. One prediction per commenter. No revisions. Your first prediction is your prediction. In case of a tie after the tie-breakers, the win goes to the person who got his prediction in first.

Everyone who predicts the cap hit within $250,000, and term exactly will be considered "right." Everyone else will be considered "wrong." For the purposes of this contest, someone who guesses the exact cap hit and term is tied with someone else who guesses the right term but is off on the cap hit by $250,000 or less.

If more than one person is "right," the tie will be broken based on how many of the following details the commenter also guessed correctly:

1. no-move clause, no-trade clause, or neither?
2. salary in each year of the deal (one point for each year correctly guessed within $75,000)
3. month in which the deal is officially announced by Kings press release
4. exact date in which the deal is officially announced by Kings press release (3 points for a direct hit; 2 points for +/- 2 days, 1 point for +/- 7 days)
5. is this deal the result of an offer sheet? 
6. if yes on #5, did the Kings match?
7. if yes on #5, which club tendered the offer sheet?

Did I read that right? 

The ball appears to be in the Kings' court in talks with Drew Doughty - latimes.com

It's apparently up to the Kings to end the long lull in talks on a new contract for restricted free agent defenseman Drew Doughty.

Don Meehan [...] said Tuesday he hadn't spoken to the Kings about Doughty since June 23. [...] It's believed the Kings are offering up to nine years at more than $6.5 million per year.

"I think he'd be happy to stay if we agree upon terms that are acceptable to him," Meehan said. "And those are our instructions, to negotiate with L.A. on that basis to secure something that he'd be happy with."

Unless he's planning on playing on another continent, he's staying whether he would be happy to or not. He's a restricted free agent. He will sign a contract by December 1 or sit out the season.

Grrrrr.

[...]  "I know how important Drew Doughty is to the Los Angeles Kings on a going-forward basis," Meehan said. "I think that's something that they're very well aware of and they know what they have to do. [...]"

Am I supposed to read that as "the Kings know how important Doughty is to them," or "the Kings know that I know how important Doughty is to them"? 

Doughty is an important part of the Kings, but if he sits the year out, I'm happy to let Viatcheslav Voynov, Nicolas Deslauriers, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez -- oh, and that Jack Johnson guy -- pick up the slack. 

Send him to New Jersey for Zach Parise and Adam Larsson.