Tonight's results

The Good:

The Bad: Kings lost.

Tomorrow's Games

CHI @ DET 

If Chicago wins in regulation:

• It's a four-way tie for 4th.
• The ROW tie-breaker gives ANA 4th, CHI 5th, with Nashville and Phoenix tied in ROWs. 
• Those two teams proceed to the head-to-head, in which they are also tied. So it's on to goal-differential, in which Nashville prevails. 
• Chicago would play Anaheim. Nashville would play Detroit. Phoenix would play San Jose. And LA plays Vancouver. However:

If Chicago wins in a shoot-out:

• then it's still a four-way tie for 4th, and Anaheim still gets 4th because of the ROW tie-breaker, but now:
• it's a three-way tie in ROWs among Nashville, Phoenix and Chicago -- they proceed to the head-to-head tie-breaker, and in that particular three-way, the winner is...still Chicago. 
• However, now Phoenix is 6th and Nashville is 7th. Because it's the head-to-head-to-head records which decide the standings, and in their respective records against each other, Nashville is the worst. 
• Chicago still plays Anaheim. But now, Nashville plays San Jose, and Phoenix plays Detroit. 
• LA still plays Vancouver. 

If Chicago loses in regulation, and Dallas wins in a shoot-out or loses either in regulation, OT or SO:

• Chicago takes 8th and opens against Vancouver.
• The Kings take 7th and open against San Jose. 
• Dallas lands in 9th and misses the playoffs with either 95, 96 or 97 points. But...

Now, the updated standings:

Continue reading this post »

• SJS (2nd), 103 pts, plays PHX (5th), 99 pts.
• DET (3rd), 102 pts, plays CHI  (8th), 97 pts. (Sunday)
• NAS (4th), 99 pts, plays STL.
• LAK (6th), 98 pts, plays ANA (7th), 97 pts.
• DAL (9th), 95 pts, plays MIN. (Sunday)

Sharks and Red Wings

• Currently tied in ROWs (regulation/over-time/NOT-shoot-out wins)
• Sharks won the season series. 
• If they end up tied at 103 points, Sharks take 2nd place (winning season-series tie-breaker).
• If they end up tied at 104 points -- and the Wings pick up a ROW -- the Wings take 2nd place (winning the ROW tie-breaker).

Predators, Coyotes, Kings, Ducks and Blackhawks

• still have the potential for a five-way tie.
• IF: Ducks beat Kings in OT, Preds and Coyotes lose and Hawks win. Everyone is tied at 99 points. 
• In that case, ROW tie-breaker gives the Ducks 4th, Hawks 5th, Preds 6th, Coyotes 7th (Preds and Coyotes would be tied in ROW, tied in season series, and Nashville wins on goal-differential), Kings 8th. 
• Unless Chicago wins Sunday in a shoot-out, in which case 5-7 would be Coyotes, Hawks, Preds (order determined by head-to-head points). 

Kings and Ducks

• The Kings lose every tie-breaker with anyone they might be tied with, due to their deficit in ROWs. 
• The Ducks win every tie-breaker with anyone they might be tied with, due to their surplus of ROWs.
• If the Kings win, they will finish 4th-6th, depending on the outcome of the Preds and Coyotes games. 
• If the Kings lose, they will finish 7th (if Chicago loses) or 8th (if Chicago wins or half-wins).
• If the Kings lose in OT or SO, they will finish 7th, unless Chicago wins, in which case the Kings take 8th.

Preds, Coyotes and Hawks (and Stars)

• Preds, Coyotes and Hawks are currently tied at 38 ROWs. 
• If the Hawks win (not in a shoot-out) and the Preds and Coyotes lose, the Hawks leapfrog to 5th.
• If the Hawks lose and Dallas wins (not in a shoot-out) the Hawks drop to 9th. 
• Preds and Coyotes tied in their season series, so if they end up tied in ROWs also (they are tied as of now), it will go to goal-differential, in which Nashville prevails (unless Phoenix beats San Jose by a margin that's bigger than the NAS/STL margin by 20 goals).
• If the Hawks and Preds are tied at 99, Hawks win (head-to-head tie-breaker decides).
• If the Hawks and Coyotes are tied at 99, it goes to goal-differential, in which Chicago prevails, unless...
• ...Chicago beats Detroit in a shoot-out on Sunday, in which case Nashville prevails in the ROW tie-breaker. 

Likely Final Seeds

The seeds are listed in descending order of likelihood. Seeds in parentheses indicate much lower probability. Chicago, LA and Anaheim have a range of 5 seeds depending on the outcomes of this weekend's five games. 

My guess

• Kings win, take 5th.
• Nashville wins and takes 4th. Plays Kings.
• Hawks win, rise to 6th and play Detroit, who stay at 3rd.
• Anaheim drops to 8th and plays Vancouver.
• Phoenix loses, drops to 7th, and plays San Jose. 

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY:

• Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). 
• NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong). 
• PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. 
• LSF is last season's final point total. 
• MAX is maximum points possible for that team. 
• PB is points-blown. 
• +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. 
• TO 97 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. 
• GR is games-remaining. 
• W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). 
• SS and SSGR is season series against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. that team’s points-earned) and games remaining (team  name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss. 
• GD is goal-differential. 
• Qcl is clustered points, which corrects for variance in games-played and then rounds point totals to the nearest multiple of 5. The idea is to emphasize which teams are bunched together, or, to put it another way, are "more or less tied." It may be useless or annoying. Feel free to ignore. 

Observations:

• Everything just got a whole lot simpler.
• It's down to Dallas or Chicago now. If Dallas wins in regulation or OT (but not in a shoot-out) and Chicago loses (but not in OT or SO) Dallas is 8th and Chicago is done. 
• If Chicago earns one point, they're in.
• If Dallas wins in a shoot-out, they're out.
• If Dallas loses or half-loses, they're out.
• Whoever is in, plays Vancouver. 
• As far as seeds 2-7 go, I'll address the various match-up possibilities in the next post. 

I've been trying to wrap my head around the playoff math in the Western Conference. I made a little chart, showing the different possible outcomes for Dallas's final two games, and what records Chicago, Anaheim, Nashville and Phoenix would need to make the playoffs, in each case. 

The far left column gives Dallas's possible records over its last two games. ROW = regulation or OT wins. SW = shoot-out wins. SL = shoot-out losses. If a box is blank, the team in question clinches if Dallas gets the record on the corresponding row. 

In every case but one, only a point total is indicated. This means that it doesn't matter how the team gets to that point total (i.e. they don't have to have a certain number of ROWs to qualify). However, in one case (CHI when DAL goes 1-0-1-0), a record is shown. This is because, with Dallas at 97/37, Chicago needs to pick up an ROW so that they get to 97/38. 

The asterisks indicate an exception. Nashville clinches with 100% certainty at 98, however, they may also be able to squeak in at 97, even if Dallas goes 1-0-1-0 (the second row of the chart). Here's how that could shake out:

• If the Preds and Dallas are tied at 97/37, they also tied their season series, which sends it to goal-differential, and the Preds will (unless some historic blow-outs occur over the weekend) prevail. 
• However, if the Preds and Dallas are in a three-way tie at 97/37, they will LOSE the head-to-head tie-breaker if the third team in the three-way is Chicago.
• In order for that to happen, Chicago would have to go 0-1-1-0 (win only once and only in a shoot-out) and Dallas would have to go 1-0-1-0 (win twice, but once in a shoot-out) and Nashville would have to lose out. In that eventuality, Nashville loses the tie-breaker and misses the playoffs (unless, while all that is going on, Anaheim gets only one point, in which case, Anaheim plays golf). 
• However, if the three-way doesn't involve Chicago, then Nashville is fine at 97 and can happily lose out. Not really worth the risk, though.
• Chicago's asterisk in the same row is also Nashville/3-way-related. If Dallas goes 1-0-1-0, Chicago is 100% guaranteed to qualify if they pick up an extra ROW by going at worst 1-1-0-0. That gets them to 97/38 and they would prevail in the ROW tie-breaker.
• However, Chicago could also win a tie-breaker with Dallas at 97/37 -- despite the fact that they lost the season series with Dallas -- provided that it's a three-way tie or a four-way tie that involves Nashville. 

• get 4 points, they finish 4th. Most likely opponent: Nashville Predators. Maybe: Phoenix Coyotes. Less likely: Chicago Blackhawks. Will not play: Anaheim Ducks.
• get 3 points, they finish no lower than 6th, no higher than 4th. Most likely: 4th. Least likely: 6th. Most likely opponent: Nashville. Maybe: Phoenix. Less likely: Chicago. Will not play: Anaheim.
• get 2 points, they finish no lower than 6th, no higher than 4th. Most likely: 5th. Least likely: 6th. Most likely opponent: Nashville. Maybe: Phoenix, Anaheim. Less likely: Detroit Red Wings, San Jose Sharks. 
• get 1 point, they finish no lower than 8th, no higher than 5th. Most likely: 7th. Least likely: 5th. Most likely opponent: San Jose, Detroit. Less likely: Anaheim, Nashville, Phoenix. 
• get 0 points, they finish no lower than 8th, no higher than 5th. Most likely: 7th. Least likely: 5th. Most likely opponent: San Jose, Detroit. Less likely: Anaheim, Nashville, Phoenix. 

Tonight's results

The Good: KINGS WON, PHX half-lost.

The Bad: CHI won, ANA won, Kings' shoot-out win doesn't count in tie-breaker column, Kings lose season series with Phoenix because of the Bettman point.

Tomorrow's Games

COL @ DAL -- no longer quite as important to the Kings as it might have been an hour ago. Nevertheless, a Stars loss here clinches playoff berths for PHX, NAS and ANA, but not yet CHI. See "observations" after the jump for more detail on how this breaks down and why Chicago has slightly more to worry about than the others. 

Now, the updated standings:

Continue reading this post »

Something I forgot to mention about tonight's game against the Coyotes. In addition to being tied in points (at 96), the Kings are one tie-breaker win behind PHX, and two points behind Phoenix in the head-to-head tie-breaker. Which means that a Kings victory in regulation would bring the two teams even in wins (at 37) and even in the season series, too. Which means that, were PHX and LAK to be tied at the end of the regular season, it could easily come down to goal-differential, in which the Kings (as of now) have an advantage of +16. 

Phoenix ends the season home-and-home against San Jose. The Kings are home-and-home against the Ducks. 

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY:

• Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). 
• NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong). 
• PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. 
• LSF is last season's final point total. 
• MAX is maximum points possible for that team. 
• PB is points-blown. 
• +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. 
• TO 97 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. 
• GR is games-remaining. 
• W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). 
• SS and SSGR is season series against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. that team’s points-earned) and games remaining (team  name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss. 
• GD is goal-differential. 
• Qcl is clustered points, which corrects for variance in games-played and then rounds point totals to the nearest multiple of 5. The idea is to emphasize which teams are bunched together, or, to put it another way, are "more or less tied." It may be useless or annoying. Feel free to ignore.