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The 95 point threshold - who can still get there?

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Monday's results:

The Good: Kings win, Avs half-lose.

The Bad: Kings let Avs get away with a loser point, Wings win.

So?

  • Kings are five behind SJS, four behind PHX, and four ahead of both NAS and COL. 
  • The Kings have games in hand on everybody but Chicago.
  • They need three more wins to get to 95 points, which still looks like the safest benchmark to aim for. 94 points gives them a 75% chance, 93 is below 50%, and 92 is a long-shot. For Calgary, they might even need 96 points. For Detroit, 94 is probably enough. But I only care about the Kings. 95 points. Six points to go.
  • The franchise single season wins record is 46 (1990-91), so they need 5 more to top that. At 42 wins, that's already 7th in franchise history.
  • The franchise single season point record is 105 (1974-75). To top that, they would need to go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, which sounds, um, unlikely to me. In '75, the Kings went 6-3-2 in their last eleven  (they were at 91 points with eleven games left; this year's model is at 89).
  • Next up for the Kings: COL, STL, DAL, MIN, NAS. I for one am glad four of those are road games and the first two and last two are back-to-back. Not much time to think. Go 3-2-0 over that stretch, and we'll be at 95 with six games left and everybody can exhale.
  • Tomorrow night has some big games: DAL/NAS (a Stars loss dooms them; Preds loss drops them into a tie with the Wings), SJS/MIN (a Sharks loss puts the Yotes ahead of them for real; a Wild loss dooms them), PHX/CHI (a Yotes loss brings the Kings to within 2 points of them), ANA/CGY (a Ducks loss all but screws them into the ground; a Flames loss puts them in a position of having to close out 8-2-0).
  • STL, MIN, DAL and ANA could all be out of it by the weekend, leaving only Calgary with a shot of catching Detroit. (I'm not talking absolute mathematical elimination -- I am only concerned with a team's ability to get to 95.)

Here are the standings* (if you haven't seen my version of standings before, scroll to the bottom for the explanation):

  1. Chicago Blackhawks 45 (1) +8
  2. San Jose Sharks 48 (4) +5
  3. Vancouver Canucks 52 (3) +1
  4. Phoenix Coyotes 49 (2) +4
  5. Los Angeles Kings 53 (5) --
  6. Nashville Predators 57 (6) -4
  7. Colorado Avalanche 57 (7) -4
  8. Detroit Red Wings 59 (8) -6
  9. Calgary Flames 63 (9) -10
  10. Anaheim Ducks 66 (11) -13
  11. St. Louis Blues 67 (10) -14
  12. Minnesota Wild 68 (12) -15
  13. Dallas Stars 68 (13) -15
  14. Columbus Blue Jackets
  15. Edmonton Oilers
And here's the record each team needs from here on, to get to the assumed (by me) magical point total of 95:
  1. Chicago Blackhawks**
  2. San Jose Sharks**
  3. Phoenix Coyotes**
  4. Vancouver Canucks 1-8-1
  5. Nashville Predators 2-6-0
  6. Los Angeles Kings 3-8-0
  7. Colorado Avalanche 4-6-0
  8. Detroit Red Wings 5-5-0
  9. Calgary Flames 7-3-0
  10. St. Louis Blues 9-1-0
  11. Anaheim Ducks 9-1-1
  12. Dallas Stars 9-0-1
  13. Minnesota Wild 9-0-1
  14. Columbus Blue Jackets
  15. Edmonton Oilers
*standings in points-blown explained: "points blown" means, literally, how many points your team could have had, but squandered; a loss is 2 blown points, a "half-loss" (OTL/SOL) is one blown point, a win is zero blown points. The resulting standings are golf-like, the fewer blown points the better. Two points "awarded" for every loss, one point for every OTL/SOL. Again, lowest point total is best. Number in parentheses is the official standings (via ESPN). Last number (+/-) is number of points (in my system) ahead or behind Los Angeles. Because it's a Kings-centric universe.
**already hit 95 points. They can lose the rest of their games now, and should, if they want to avoid Detroit in the first round.