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Monday Night: The Good, The Bad, The New Real Standings

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Tonight's Results

The Good: SJS lost, MIN lost.

The Bad: CHI won.

Tomorrow's Big Games (Kings-wise)

LAK @ NAS -- LA is 3 points up on the Preds. This is a good chance to help them along in their descent. GO KINGS. 

SJS @ DAL -- Either way. Just end it in regulation.

PHX @ CGY -- ditto.

Now, the updated standings:

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY: Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here). NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM (ESPN has the tie-breakers wrong). PRJ is projected point total for 82 games. LSF is last season's final point total. PB is points-blown. +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed. TO 96 is the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. GR is games-remaining. W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker). SS and SSGR indicate season series results against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. opponent's points-earned) and games remaining (team name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss. GD is goal--differential. 

Oh, and I should point out, out of an overabundance of caution, I raised the playoff threshold to 96 points. According to Sportsclubstats, in their 100,000,000 simulations, 96 points gets the Kings into the playoffs between 98 and 99% of the time (depending on how many loser points are involved). 95 points still has the Kings above 90%, but several other teams are now looking at 96 points to break the 90% threshold. Thus, the change. 

Q NHL   PTS W% PRJ LSF PB +/- TO 96 GR W! SS SSGR GD
1 1 VAN 101 0.7113 116.6 103 41 17 n/a 11 42 1 1 64
2 2 DET 90 0.6522 107.0 102 48 10 3-10-0 13 37 3 LAK 28
3 3 SJS 86 0.6143 100.7 113 54 4 5-7-0 12 34 -1 2 14
4 5 LAK 83 0.6014 98.6 101 55 3 6-6-1 13 32 n/a n/a 24
5 4 CHI 84 0.6000 98.4 112 56 2 6-6-0 12 33 -8 CHI 36
6 7 DAL 82 0.5942 97.4 88 56 2 7-6-0 13 32 3 LAK 0
7 6 PHX 83 0.5929 97.2 107 57 1 6-5-1 12 32 -2 1 2
8 9 NAS 80 0.5797 95.1 100 58 0 8-5-0 13 29 2 1 16
9 10 ANA 79 0.5725 93.9 89 59 -1 8-4-1 13 33 2 3 -7
10 8 CGY 81 0.5704 93.5 90 61 -3 7-3-1 11 29 1 1 11
11 11 MIN 77 0.5500 90.2 84 63 -5 9-2-1 12 33 1 LAK -8
12 12 CBJ 73 0.5368 88.0 79 63 -5 11-2-1 14 28 3 LAK -18
13 13 STL 71 0.5145 84.4 90 67 -9 12-0-1 13 27 -6 STL -14
14 14 COL 60 0.4412 72.4 95 76 -18 n/a 14 23 6 LAK -48
15 15 EDM 55 0.3929 64.4 62 85 -27 n/a 12 21 5 LAK -59

Some observations:

  • I dropped MIN into the red, designating them as essentially out of the race (though mathematically there's still a chance; all they have to do is going 9-2-1).
  • SJS dropped into the blue, as they seem determined to keep it interesting. The Kings have two games left with the Sharks. 
  • LAK is 3 points behind SJS, but only one measly point-blown back. 
  • Wait, do we even want home ice advantage in the playoffs?