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Oh, the Possibilities

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  • SJS (2nd), 103 pts, plays PHX (5th), 99 pts.
  • DET (3rd), 102 pts, plays CHI (8th), 97 pts. (Sunday)
  • NAS (4th), 99 pts, plays STL.
  • LAK (6th), 98 pts, plays ANA (7th), 97 pts.
  • DAL (9th), 95 pts, plays MIN. (Sunday)

Sharks and Red Wings

  • Currently tied in ROWs (regulation/over-time/NOT-shoot-out wins)
  • Sharks won the season series.
  • If they end up tied at 103 points, Sharks take 2nd place (winning season-series tie-breaker).
  • If they end up tied at 104 points -- and the Wings pick up a ROW -- the Wings take 2nd place (winning the ROW tie-breaker).

Predators, Coyotes, Kings, Ducks and Blackhawks

  • still have the potential for a five-way tie.
  • IF: Ducks beat Kings in OT, Preds and Coyotes lose and Hawks win. Everyone is tied at 99 points.
  • In that case, ROW tie-breaker gives the Ducks 4th, Hawks 5th, Preds 6th, Coyotes 7th (Preds and Coyotes would be tied in ROW, tied in season series, and Nashville wins on goal-differential), Kings 8th.
  • Unless Chicago wins Sunday in a shoot-out, in which case 5-7 would be Coyotes, Hawks, Preds (order determined by head-to-head points).

Kings and Ducks

  • The Kings lose every tie-breaker with anyone they might be tied with, due to their deficit in ROWs.
  • The Ducks win every tie-breaker with anyone they might be tied with, due to their surplus of ROWs.
  • If the Kings win, they will finish 4th-6th, depending on the outcome of the Preds and Coyotes games.
  • If the Kings lose, they will finish 7th (if Chicago loses) or 8th (if Chicago wins or half-wins).
  • If the Kings lose in OT or SO, they will finish 7th, unless Chicago wins, in which case the Kings take 8th.

Preds, Coyotes and Hawks (and Stars)

  • Preds, Coyotes and Hawks are currently tied at 38 ROWs.
  • If the Hawks win (not in a shoot-out) and the Preds and Coyotes lose, the Hawks leapfrog to 5th.
  • If the Hawks lose and Dallas wins (not in a shoot-out) the Hawks drop to 9th.
  • Preds and Coyotes tied in their season series, so if they end up tied in ROWs also (they are tied as of now), it will go to goal-differential, in which Nashville prevails (unless Phoenix beats San Jose by a margin that's bigger than the NAS/STL margin by 20 goals).
  • If the Hawks and Preds are tied at 99, Hawks win (head-to-head tie-breaker decides).
  • If the Hawks and Coyotes are tied at 99, it goes to goal-differential, in which Chicago prevails, unless...
  • ...Chicago beats Detroit in a shoot-out on Sunday, in which case Nashville prevails in the ROW tie-breaker.

Likely Final Seeds

The seeds are listed in descending order of likelihood. Seeds in parentheses indicate much lower probability. Chicago, LA and Anaheim have a range of 5 seeds depending on the outcomes of this weekend's five games.

WIN LOSE OTSOL RANGE
LAK 5th, 6th (4th) 8th (7th) 8th, 7th 4-8
ANA 5th, 6th (4th) 8th (7th) 8th, 7th 4-8
PHX 4th, 5th 7th, 6th 5th (4th) 4-7
NAS 4th 6th, 7th 4th, 5th 4-7
DAL 9th (8th) 9th 9th 8-9
CHI 6th, 7th (5th) 8th, 9th 7th, 8th 5-9

My guess

  • Kings win, take 5th.
  • Nashville wins and takes 4th. Plays Kings.
  • Hawks win, rise to 6th and play Detroit, who stay at 3rd.
  • Anaheim drops to 8th and plays Vancouver.
  • Phoenix loses, drops to 7th, and plays San Jose.