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The Penultimate Real Standings and Match-Up Variations

Tonight's results

The Good:

The Bad: Kings lost.

Tomorrow's Games

CHI @ DET

If Chicago wins in regulation:

  • It's a four-way tie for 4th.
  • The ROW tie-breaker gives ANA 4th, CHI 5th, with Nashville and Phoenix tied in ROWs.
  • Those two teams proceed to the head-to-head, in which they are also tied. So it's on to goal-differential, in which Nashville prevails.
  • Chicago would play Anaheim. Nashville would play Detroit. Phoenix would play San Jose. And LA plays Vancouver. However:

If Chicago wins in a shoot-out:

  • then it's still a four-way tie for 4th, and Anaheim still gets 4th because of the ROW tie-breaker, but now:
  • it's a three-way tie in ROWs among Nashville, Phoenix and Chicago -- they proceed to the head-to-head tie-breaker, and in that particular three-way, the winner is...still Chicago.
  • However, now Phoenix is 6th and Nashville is 7th. Because it's the head-to-head-to-head records which decide the standings, and in their respective records against each other, Nashville is the worst.
  • Chicago still plays Anaheim. But now, Nashville plays San Jose, and Phoenix plays Detroit.
  • LA still plays Vancouver.
If Chicago loses in OT or SO:
  • Chicago and LA are tied for 7th, and Chicago takes 7th place thanks to the ROW tie-breaker, and opens in San Jose.
  • Anaheim plays Nashville.
  • Phoenix plays Detroit.
  • LA still plays Vancouver.
However, if Chicago LOSES IN REGULATION:
  • Hmmm. Well, that depends on the outcome of our next game...
DAL @ MIN

If Chicago loses in regulation, and Dallas wins in a shoot-out or loses either in regulation, OT or SO:

  • Chicago takes 8th and opens against Vancouver.
  • The Kings take 7th and open against San Jose.
  • Dallas lands in 9th and misses the playoffs with either 95, 96 or 97 points. But...
If Chicago loses in regulation, and Dallas wins in regulation or OT:
  • Chicago and Dallas are tied for 8th, and tied in ROWs.
  • They proceed to the head-to-head tie-breaker, which favors Dallas.
  • Dallas takes 8th and opens against Vancouver.
  • The Kings take 7th and open against San Jose.
  • Chicago goes home, missing the playoffs with 97 points.

Now, the updated standings:

Q NHL PTS W% PRJ MAX LSF PB +/- >9th GR W! SS SSGR GD
1 1 VAN 117 0.7134 103 47 19 50 -1 VAN 77
2 2 SJS 105 0.6402 113 59 7 43 -2 SJS 35
3 3 DET 102 0.6296 103.3 104 102 60 6 1 42 3 LAK 19
4 4 ANA 99 0.6037 89 65 1 43 -3 ANA 4
5 5 NAS 99 0.6037 100 65 1 38 4 LAK 25
6 6 PHX 99 0.6037 107 65 1 38 -1 PHX 5
7 8 CHI 97 0.5988 98.2 99 112 65 1 0-0-1 1 38 -8 CHI 34
8 7 LAK 98 0.5976 101 66 0 36 21
9 9 DAL 95 0.5864 96.2 97 88 67 -1 1-0-0 1 37 5 LAK -4
10 10 CGY 94 0.5732 90 70 -4 32 2 LAK 13
11 11 STL 87 0.5305 90 77 -11 34 -8 STL 6
12 12 MIN 84 0.5185 85.0 86 84 78 -12 1 35 1 LAK -29
13 13 CBJ 81 0.4939 79 83 -17 29 3 LAK -43
14 14 COL 66 0.4074 66.8 68 95 96 -30 1 23 8 LAK -62
15 15 EDM 61 0.3765 61.8 63 62 101 -35 1 23 7 LAK -75

Click on the headers to sort.

KEY:

  • Q is my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
  • NHL is the official standings, via NHL.COM.
  • PRJ is projected point total for 82 games.
  • LSF is last season's final point total.
  • MAX is maximum points possible for that team.
  • PB is points-blown.
  • +/- is the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
  • GR is games-remaining.
  • W! is wins plus OT wins (the first tie-breaker).
  • SS and SSGR is season series against the Kings (Kings’ points-earned vs. that team’s points-earned) and games remaining (team name in the SSGR column means that team has won the season series). 2 points for a Kings win, 1 for an OT or SO win, -1 for an OT or SO loss, -2 for a loss.
  • GD is goal-differential.
Observations:
  • Five points separate 4th from 10th.
  • Depending on the outcome of tomorrow's games, 2-4 points will separate 4th from 9th.
  • And 1-2 points will separate 4th from 8th.