I guess maybe you can tell from the headline that my heart's not so much into arguing that it's all the fault of Dean Lombardi, who -- as the argument usually goes -- is just too conservative to pull the trigger on The Big Trade, pony up for Mr UFA, etc.. I don't believe it, but I will give it my best shot.
A recap of what we've done so far: in part one, we identified the problem; in part two, I decided I would attempt to argue each of four (partially but not entirely mutually-exclusive) solutions, starting with blaming it all on the captain(s); in part three, I attempted to blame it all on the coach. Now, in part four, it's Lombardi's fault.
So, without further ado, here's why we should blame Dean:
Everyone knows that to win a championship, you need scoring. Thus, the fierce competition for the handful of elite scorers that become available either through free-agency or trade. Yet, Dean Lombardi is batting a perfect 0.000 in bringing one of these coveted players to Los Angeles. Consider if you will this list of the 40 top goal scorers since the lock-out:
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06
TOT
CUP?
Alex Ovechkin
32
50
56
65
46
52
301
no
Ilya Kovalchuk
31
41
43
52
42
52
261
no
Dany Heatley
26
39
39
41
50
50
245
no
Jarome Iginla
43
32
35
50
39
35
234
no
Eric Staal
33
29
40
38
30
45
215
2006
Sidney Crosby
32
51
33
24
36
39
215
2009
Vincent Lecavalier
25
24
29
40
52
35
205
2004
Patrick Marleau
37
44
38
19
32
34
204
no
Rick Nash
32
33
40
38
27
31
201
no
Marian Hossa
25
24
40
29
43
39
200
2010
Henrik Zetterberg
24
23
31
43
33
39
193
2008
Martin St. Louis
31
29
30
25
43
31
189
2004
Daniel Sedin
41
29
31
29
36
22
188
no
Marian Gaborik
22
42
13
42
30
38
187
no
Teemu Selanne
31
27
27
12
48
40
185
2007
Jeff Carter
36
33
46
29
14
23
181
no
Olli Jokinen
17
15
29
34
39
38
172
no
Daniel Alfredsson
14
20
24
40
29
43
170
no
Corey Perry
50
27
32
29
17
13
168
2007
Pavel Datsyuk
23
27
32
31
27
28
168
2008
Mike Knuble
24
29
27
29
24
34
167
1998
Alexander Semin
28
40
34
26
38
166
no
Jason Spezza
21
23
32
34
34
19
163
no
Mike Cammalleri
19
26
39
19
34
26
163
no
Simon Gagne
17
17
34
7
41
47
163
no
Zach Parise
3
38
45
32
31
14
163
no
Danny Briere
34
26
11
31
32
25
159
no
Evgeni Malkin
15
28
35
47
33
158
2009
Jason Arnott
17
19
33
28
27
32
156
2000
Patrick Sharp
34
25
26
36
20
14
155
2010
Shane Doan
20
18
31
28
27
30
154
no
Brad Boyes
17
14
33
43
17
26
150
no
Brian Rolston
14
20
15
31
31
34
145
Dustin Brown
28
24
24
33
17
14
140
no
Anze Kopitar
25
34
27
32
20
138
no
Joe Thornton
21
20
25
29
22
20
137
no
Alex Frolov
7
19
32
23
35
21
137
no
Brad Richards
28
24
16
20
25
23
136
no
Mike Richards
23
31
30
28
10
11
133
no
The first thing I invite you to do is shrink this chart so you can fit the whole thing on your screen. Then, kind of squint so you only see the field of colors, not so much the numbers and names. What do you see? A bunch of red, right? Those are all the seasons that those 40 highest goal scorers won cups. And if only Dean Lombardi had gotten us any of those guys, we would have w -- No, wait. My bad. Red means the team DIDN'T EVEN MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THAT YEAR. How can that be? All these high powered goal-scoring millionaires, and they're not even in the playoffs? Okay, then what color means they won a cup?
Blue.
You see any blue? It's in there. Nine times. Nine out of 240 little boxes. Even smaller is the number of players on this list who never missed the playoffs post-lockout. Six guys. Meanwhile, eleven of these scorers haven't gotten past the 1st round.
The key is:
Blue = cup
Green = lost in finals
Eggplant = lost in 3rd round
Yellow = lost in 2nd round
Orange = lost in 1st round
Red = missed playoffs
Now, here are some of the same names, appearing on a list of the big UFA signings since 2007 (I didn't include players who re-signed with the same team; only players who signed with new ones). There are some omissions (e.g. Sheldon Souray) which I am correcting and updating as time allows. But this will do for now, because really I just wanted to highlight the signings that led to appearances in the cup finals. There are six of them. And two of those are Hossa. Another is Cristobal Huet, who has his name on the cup, but would still be high atop the list of UFA signing catastrophes. I had previously formatted this list so that everyone whose team missed the playoffs in the wake of the signing appeared in red, but it was too red.
Just eyeballing the names here, you can see a lot of wasted money and albatross contracts. More than half are either total busts or signings by non-playoff teams. Of all the big name players Lombardi is rumored to have pursued, I think only Briere and Hossa made choices they would still make today.
| PLAYER | TEAM | YEAR | CAP HIT |
| Marian Gaborik | RANGERS | 2009 | $7,500,000.00 |
| Marian Hossa | RED WINGS | 2008 | $7,400,000.00 |
| Scott Gomez | RANGERS | 2007 | $7,360,000.00 |
| Brian Campbell | BLACKHAWKS | 2008 | $7,100,000.00 |
| Chris Drury | RANGERS | 2007 | $7,050,000.00 |
| Jay Bouwmeester | FLAMES | 2009 | $6,700,000.00 |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | DEVILS | 2010 | $6,660,000.00 |
| Dan Boyle | SHARKS | 2008 | $6,600,000.00 |
| Daniel Briere | FLYERS | 2007 | $6,500,000.00 |
| Ryan Smyth | AVALANCHE | 2007 | $6,250,000.00 |
| Mike Cammalleri | CANADIENS | 2009 | $6,000,000.00 |
| Brian Rafalski | RED WINGS | 2007 | $6,000,000.00 |
| Paul Kariya | BLUES | 2007 | $6,000,000.00 |
| Cristobal Huet | BLACKHAWKS | 2008 | $5,600,000.00 |
| Marian Hossa | BLACKHAWKS | 2009 | $5,230,000.00 |
| Brian Rolston | DEVILS | 2008 | $5,060,000.00 |
| Martin Havlat | WILD | 2009 | $5,000,000.00 |
| Brian Gionta | CANADIENS | 2009 | $5,000,000.00 |
| Alex Kovalev | SENATORS | 2009 | $5,000,000.00 |
| Michal Rozsival | RANGERS | 2008 | $5,000,000.00 |
| Rob Blake | SHARKS | 2008 | $5,000,000.00 |
| Kristian Huselius | BLUE JACKETS | 2008 | $4,750,000.00 |
| Mike Komisarek | MAPLE LEAFS | 2009 | $4,500,000.00 |
| Jose Theodore | CAPITALS | 2008 | $4,500,000.00 |
| Ron Hainsey | THRASHERS | 2008 | $4,500,000.00 |
| Anton Volchenkov | DEVILS | 2010 | $4,250,000.00 |
| David Booth | PANTHERS | 2009 | $4,250,000.00 |
| Mark Streit | ISLANDERS | 2008 | $4,100,000.00 |
| Nik Antropov | THRASHERS | 2009 | $4,000,000.00 |
| Michael Ryder | BRUINS | 2008 | $4,000,000.00 |
| Pavol Demitra | CANUCKS | 2008 | $4,000,000.00 |
| Michal Handzus | KINGS | 2007 | $4,000,000.00 |
| Sean Avery | STARS | 2008 | $3,900,000.00 |
| Jaroslav Spacek | CANADIENS | 2009 | $3,830,000.00 |
| Francois Beauchemin | MAPLE LEAFS | 2009 | $3,800,000.00 |
| Mattias Ohlund | LIGHTNING | 2009 | $3,750,000.00 |
| Nikolai Khabibulin | OILERS | 2009 | $3,750,000.00 |
| R.J. Umberger | BLUE JACKETS | 2008 | $3,750,000.00 |
| Mike Commodore | BLUE JACKETS | 2008 | $3,700,000.00 |
| Willie Mitchell | KINGS | 2010 | $3,500,000.00 |
| Jeff Finger | MAPLE LEAFS | 2008 | $3,500,000.00 |
| Cory Stillman | PANTHERS | 2008 | $3,500,000.00 |
| Rob Scuderi | KINGS | 2009 | $3,400,000.00 |
| Henrik Tallinder | DEVILS | 2010 | $3,250,000.00 |
| Alexei Ponikarovsky | KINGS | 2010 | $3,250,000.00 |
| Todd Fedoruk | COYOTES | 2008 | $3,175,000.00 |
| Ray Whitney | COYOTES | 2010 | $3,000,000.00 |
| Alex Frolov | RANGERS | 2010 | $3,000,000.00 |
| Brendan Witt | ISLANDERS | 2008 | $3,000,000.00 |
If you think the Blackhawks proved the value of splurging on UFAs, I would just point out that they had the same three players this season and barely squeaked into the playoffs. Why? Because of the lack of depth forced on them by signing those three guys at those prices. I just see no evidence at all that breaking the bank helps you at all.
There is also the argument that Lombardi has put too much emphasis on stockpiling prospects and is not willing to deal them to bring in that one high-octane forward. This is the "Hickey, Schenn, Loktionov and Bernier for Malkin" argument. I almost didn't address this subset of the anti-Lombardi diatribe because (1) people don't trade superstars in their prime for a package of prospects, and (2) even if they did, the Kings couldn't add a $6-7MM contract without giving equal cap value back, because of what's about to happen this summer with the Doughty RFA extension (yes, the Kings will be more or less at the ceiling). Therefore the only way Lombardi brings in a superstar in trade -- e.g. Zach Parise -- is if he's willing to deal two of Brown, Williams, et al, plus sundry prospects and picks -- and fans seem reluctant to suggest that kind of thing. They want to add to their hockey cards, not subtract.
However.
I do think there's one interesting argument to be made in pinning it all on DL, but it has nothing to do with UFAs. It has to do with the two biggest trades Lombardi has made as Kings GM.
And that's what we will cover in part 4b...