In Part 1, we examined scoring chances for the 2014-15 Los Angeles Kings as a team. But that was mere surface. Now, we dissect at an individual level.
Yes, that means weighing the Kopitar. Removing the Sekera. And even making an incision across the Van der Gulik.
But before we cut, I want to introduce our tools. For some long-time practitioners, this glossary is strictly pre-med—in that case, skip ahead, knives out!
A2 Secondary Pass (for further explanation, check out Ryan Stimson's groundbreaking work)
ES Even Strength
HSC High-danger Scoring Chance. See Part 1 for further explanation.
HSCA High-danger Scoring Chances Against
HSCA60 High-danger Scoring Chances Against Per 60 Minutes
HSCF High-danger Scoring Chances For
HSCF60 High-danger Scoring Chances For Per 60 Minutes
iHSC Individual High-danger Scoring Chances
iHSC60 Individual High-danger Scoring Chances Per 60 Minutes
iSC Individual Scoring Chances
iSC60 Individual Scoring Chances Per 60 Minutes
PP Power Play
SAG Shot Attempt Generated from Pass (for further explanation, check out Ryan Stimson's groundbreaking work)
SAG60 Shot Attempts Generated from Pass Per 60 Minutes
SC Scoring Chance. I used the "home plate" definition in my tracking. I also cite War on Ice's more generous definition here. See Part 1 for further explanation.
SCA Scoring Chances Against
SCA60 Scoring Chances Against Per 60 Minutes
SCF Scoring Chances For
SCF60 Scoring Chances For Per 60 Minutes
SH Shorthanded
TOI Time on Ice
WOI War on Ice
Even Strength
Most tables are sortable.
We will be focusing on the rate stats, but here are the raw:
Yawn. Of course That 70’s Line and Gabitar dominated SCF% and HSCF%. Gaborik didn’t garner the same fanfare that Kopitar, Carter, and Toffoli received, but he was every bit as good.
What’s surprising? Brown snapping at the heels of more celebrated snipers Carter and Toffoli in iSC60. And what’s shocking? Clifford chasing the pace Carter with a 4.15 iHSC60. No doubt “Big Red Dog” crashes the net, it’s just too bad he doesn’t have much of a plan once he gets there:
On the verge of a massive extension, Kopitar’s diminished iSC60 (11th out of 15 forwards) is somewhat frightening, but his SC SAG60 remains in a class by itself. He’s still easily the most effective set-up man on the Kings.
Stoll VS Richards VS Shore
This was much debated throughout the year. Who was a more convincing third-line center?
Obviously, the organization was biased toward Stoll. I spoke on behalf of Richards. Some, understandably fed up with both vets, went Shore.
We all lost.
Stoll compounded a dismal SCF60 (13th among forwards) with a below-average SCA60 (ninth among forwards). And defense was supposed to be his strong point!
Richards compounded a dismal SCA60 (14th among forwards) with a below-average SCF60 (ninth among forwards). And offense was supposed to be his strong point!
Somehow, Shore matched a team-best SCA60 with a team-worst SCF60.
Respectively, Richards, Stoll, and Shore finished 11th, 12th, and 14th among forwards in SCF%.
So short of creating one super-average third-line center from strands of Richards, Shore, and Stoll’s DNA, perhaps Dean Lombardi should’ve talked himself into making a trade.
For what it’s worth, Richards’s HSCF% was a little more respectable (seventh among forwards), backed by a solid HSCA. This might correlate with his sound shorthanded work, which we will get to soon.
And strangely, while Shore topped SCA60, he bottomed out in HSCA60. Let’s hope he spent the summer studying low slot coverage!
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
This is actually the third consecutive year that Jewels from the Crown has provided year-end scoring chance reviews. Dearly departed Robert_P. broke down 2012-13 in three parts: Forwards, defensemen, then goalies. Nick was blessed by a Cup-winning 2013-14.
If you’re curious, Robert_P. is enjoying semi-retirement in Russia, where he is indulging his passion for petting zoos and Ryan Reynolds’s “Green Lantern.” Or maybe he’s slinging some of the best pie in Manhattan. But I digress…
We’re about to explore scoring chance trends over the past three seasons, so I suggest you dig through their findings.
Keep in mind that counting scoring chances is subjective, so don’t compare our exact figures. Instead, pay attention to where a player ranked at his position.
Also, we might use a different name for the same stat. This isn’t a matter of artistic license, but instead, speaks to the relative infancy of hockey analytics. For example, I go with iSC60, Nick chose C/60, and Robert paid homage to the upcoming Robot Liam Neeson with a cannon arm hit Taken/60. Finally, Robert and I tracked all ES, while Nick just 5v5. However, that shouldn’t skew comparisons much.
Of course, we start with Kopistar. His iSC60 has waxed and waned from ninth (out of 15 forwards) in ’12-13, fourth (out of 17) in ’13-14, and 11th in ’14-15. This year’s iSC60 was undoubtedly affected by a career-low 5.48 5v5 Shots/60. These are numbers to watch carefully in ’15-16: Is the next phase of Anze’s career being a pass-first guy?
Carter has lapped teammates in iSC60 for three years running. But coming on is Toffoli, who accelerated from 10th last season to pull behind his explosive linemate. Might Los Angeles have a new top gun this fall?
Williams was just average at controlling scoring chances (seventh), following standout efforts in ’13-14 (second) and ’12-13 (first). While some of his blues can be blamed on being chained to Stoll, sharp drops in his Points/60, Shots/60, and possession, along with his age, indicate that the 2014 Conn Smythe winner might be more good than great these days. But make no mistake, he was great.
Richards, on the other hand, has not aged so gracefully:
| Year | SCF60 Team Rank | SCA60 Team Rank | ISC60 Team Rank | SC SAG60 Team Rank | Qualifying forwards |
| 2014-15 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| 2013-14 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 17 |
| 2012-13 | 8 | 7 | 8 | N/A | 15 |
While the former Selke finalist’s SCA60 was also unsightly last year, he managed a somewhat underrated offensive campaign, starring—yes, I said starring—as LA’s second billing setup man. However, things fall apart.
While he wasn’t with the Kings, I took a snapshot of Milan Lucic’s SC numbers from 2012-15. According to War on Ice, he was only eighth (out of 12 qualified Boston forwards, 1000+ 5v5 mins) in SCF% and sixth in iSC60. Think the High-Danger area is his specialty? He was just 10th in iHSC60. What’s encouraging here is his shooting ability—he led the Bruins in 5v5 shooting % in this time.
We will be focusing on the rate stats, but here are the raw:
I got everything off my chest re: Sekera in my eulogy. RIP brother.
And while we’re shoveling dirt, the recently-retired Regehr appears to be dead weight in every iteration of SCF% and SCA60. However, if the dead could talk, they might argue that Martinez was in fact LA’s worst regular blueliner—that’s a stone-cold 45.58 SCF%. Of course, being paired with Reggie has submarined stats since the Lusitania. But maybe—just maybe—A-Mart isn’t cut out for top-four duty.
That the inexperienced McNabb finished behind LA’s elite trio in SCF% is promising. McBain, beyond an unreplicable shooting %, provided some offensive spark when he suited up, but his team-leading SCF60 was undercut by a below-average SCA60 (seventh out of 10 defensemen).
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
You must be impressed. Three whole paragraphs into a JftC overview of Los Angeles defensemen, and no mushiness over Muzzin yet. Well, I can’t contain myself any longer: This is his third straight year leading the rearguard in SCF%. I’m singing let it go, let it go, haters. He’s not just an advanced stats darling—what’s so advanced about a scoring chance?—Muzz is simply an excellent player, unless controlling scoring chances isn’t really your thing.
Sure, SCF% is no end all, be all. Doughty has gone third, sixth, and fourth among Los Angeles defenders in the category recently, which doesn’t accurately express his value. But what Muzz Jake do to be fully appreciated?
Anyway, I’m watching Martinez closely this fall. Overmatched in ’14-15, perhaps he can flourish like he did before and prove that a six-year investment in him was not a mistake. But it bears reminding: He has Sekera’s term and might end up with a higher AAV than the still available Christian Ehrhoff.
Speaking of the just-signed Ehrhoff, there are two narratives. First, he looked like a pretty-average top-four guy in an injury-riddled season with the Penguins. He ranked fourth in both SCF% and HSCF% (out of six qualified Pittsburgh defensemen, 500+ 5v5 mins). Before that, however, he was probably the very best defender both for terrible Buffalo teams and ’10-11 Stanley Cup finalist Vancouver. From 2011-14, he was second in both SCF% and HSCF% (out of eight qualified Buffalo defensemen, 1000+ 5v5 mins), and easily ran away with the blueline’s best SCF% Relative to Team in that stretch—Ehrhoff had a 3.9%, while Jordan Leopold followed with a 0.85. His numbers for Vancouver were even better.
If Los Angeles can get something between the Ehrhoff from last year and his Buffalo days, they’ll be thrilled.
Power Play
Only players who skated 30+ PP minutes are listed. JftC did not record PP chances in 2012-13.
We will be focusing on the rate stats, but here are the raw:
Kopitar, Gaborik, Carter, and Toffoli were the most reliable cogs of an unreliable LA PP machine. Anze, way ahead of his considerable ES SC SAG60, more than doubled the nearest forward’s power play passing output.
But sigh the 100+ minutes with which Stoll and King gave Los Angeles a “man advantage”…
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Once again, Gaborik flexed a sturdy iSC60. After placing fourth (out of 10 forwards) in ’13-14, behind—wait for it—or shall I say “Trade for it”—leader Matt Frattin, the Slovakian seized the conch this season.
As Gaborik rocketed, Richards plummeted. For LA’s finest all-around PP specialist last season (first in combined iSC60 and SC SAG60), shoot or pass may as well have been punt or kick this year—his iSC60 dropped from fifth to ninth and SC SAG60 from first to ninth.
King and Stoll were exceedingly polite. Ninth and 10th in combined iSC60 and SC SAG60 in ’13-14, ever the gentlemen, they simply swapped spots this season.
Once again, I’m going to take a brief look at Lucic. He’s going to disappoint at PP iHSC too: He was just sixth (among nine qualified Boston forwards, 150+ PP mins) from 2012-15. His shooting % wasn’t any better; he was eighth.
We will be focusing on the rate stats, but here are the raw:
Generally, Doughty, Muzzin, and McBain formed the cream of LA’s power play crop (among six qualified defensemen). Muzz was probably Los Angeles’s most threatening “man up” blueline bomber, leading the attack in iSC60 and most other PP statistics. Doughty, who earned the most TOI of any Kings player, was more of a passer (second in SC SAG60).
Martinez’s uninspiring season is also reflected by his limp PP stats.
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Muzzin’s PP success almost certainly has something to do with usage. A fixture on LA’s top unit in ’14-15, last year it was Martinez who benefited from more time with the best players (first in iSC60 out of five qualified defensemen).
Jake was more Magic than Michael that season, dishing the highest SC SAG60 among most-used dmen. It appears that he may have made a conscious effort to shoot more on the man advantage in ’14-15, as his 5v4 Shots/60 flew from 11.91 to 13.99. Facilitator or finisher? It’s encouraging that Muzz seems equally at ease in both roles.
Ehrhoff has a dangerous shot but is more of a quarterback. From 2011-14, he was third (out of five qualified Buffalo defensemen) in iSCF60. With Pittsburgh, he was also middle of the pack in iSCF60. I would guess that Los Angeles tries him with Martinez on the second PP unit to start the season.
Shorthanded
Only players who skated 30+ SH minutes are listed. JftC did not record SH chances against in 2012-13. Rate and raw stats are together.
This was Richards’s sanctuary, as the much-maligned center bested eight qualified forwards in all SH SCA categories. If you recall, he was also a safe bet with ES HSCA, which suggests that he still knows his way around the low slot defensively. Um, except against Buffalo. Hopefully, he imparted some wisdom on Shore.
Of course, Lewis’s similar SCA60 is even more striking because of his heavier SH deployment.
In contrast, Stoll and Kopitar did not show well. Their bloated SCA60s were at least a little related to significant usage; Lewis’s achievement is all the more commendable.
Lewis and the always dangerous Toffoli were probably LA’s most effective penalty killers.
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Richards still appears to be an above-average penalty killer—he was second (among eight qualified forwards) in SCA60 in ’13-14. So why was he used so seldomly on it?
Let’s go back to the mistake versus the lowly Sabres. Up to that point in early December, Richards was averaging nearly a minute a game on the kill; he was a regular, roughly third-choice PK’er. After that gaffe, which drew withering criticism from Darryl Sutter, he averaged less than half a minute a game on the kill; that’s about what not-so-regular PK’er Pearson averaged.
As for favored son Stoll, he fell hard from third to seventh in SCA60, which pretty much completes his decline as a viable player. Frankly, he doesn’t seem to do anything very well anymore, besides locker room stuff.
Kopitar also brought up rear last year. Cutting back his SH time might cost him a Selke vote or two, but penalty killing may not be his forte. Anyway, a shorthanded break might allow him to catch his breath, so he can swing his arms a little more to say, shoot.
Granted, the Kings will be short some likely PK candidates with the departures of Stoll and Richards. It appears that they will lean heavily on the untested Shore, who is excellent on the draw.
Martinez and Muzzin topped all SH SCA categories with ease, but it must be noted that Doughty, Regehr, and Greene play the toughest minutes for LA.
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
As much as JftC rags on Regehr, he was a strong penalty killer in ’13-14 (third out of six qualified defensemen in SCA).
In very limited time, Muzzin finished second. With Reggie’s retirement, Muzz is next in line for heavy PK minutes, which he’s handled capably in smaller doses over the last couple seasons. In that case, this will be an opportunity for him to obliterate any doubts about his status as an elite all-around defenseman.
That is, unless Voynov returns.
Or Ehrhoff soaks up the extra PK minutes. He was the Sabres’ second most-used blueliner (out of eight qualified Buffalo defensemen, 100+ SH mins) on the kill from 2011-14 and was adequate, ranking fourth in SCA60 and third in HSCA60 in that time. However, he was seventh (out of eight qualified Pittsburgh defensemen, 30+ SH mins) in SCA60 and last in HSCA60 with the Pens.
I’d guess Muzzin gets more of Regehr’s SH time because he’s more physical than Ehrhoff and more experienced than McNabb.
Goaltending
While I didn’t track Save % on scoring chances this past season, I believe War on Ice’s Sv%M (Medium-Danger Save Percentage) and Sv%H (High-Danger Save Percentage) will serve as suitable proxies for SC Save %. See WOI’s glossary for further explanation of save percentage danger zones.
Also, unlike forwards and defensemen, we will concentrate on how the goalies compared league-wide instead of just within Los Angeles.
5v5
| 5v5 TOI | Sv%M | Sv%M NHL Rank | Sv%H | Sv%H NHL Rank | Qualifying goalies | |
| Jonathan Quick | 3351.3 | 91.59 | 31 | 84.31 | 17 | 35 (1500+ 5v5 mins) |
| Martin Jones | 626.5 | 91.67 | 42 | 82.81 | 38 | 62 (600+ 5v5 mins) |
Neither Quick nor Jones enjoyed memorable seasons.
The Kings starter tripped into the Sv%M pits (out of 35 qualified NHL goalies), while offering merely average Sv%H work. His understudy was below-average in both zone Sv% categories.
Much as been made of Quick’s seasons within a season. Two months in, he was challenging for the Vezina—I’ve included 5v5 Sv%L (Low-Danger Save Percentage) and Overall 5v5 Save% for additional context:
| GP | Sv%H | Sv%H NHL Rank | Sv%M | Sv%M NHL Rank | Sv%L | Sv%L NHL Rank | Sv% | Sv% NHL Rank | Qualified Goalies | |
| 10/8-12/8/14 | 21 | 86.67 | 4 | 93.1 | 14 | 98.63 | 5 | 93.79 | 4 | 32 (500+ 5v5 mins) |
Then he fired the worst 15-game stretch by a Kings goalie since Dan Cloutier. As LA’s possession and scoring chances control was pointing up, the American was falling down:
| GP | Sv%H | Sv%H NHL Rank | Sv%M | Sv%M NHL Rank | Sv%L | Sv%L NHL Rank | Sv% | Sv% NHL Rank | Qualified Goalies | |
| 12/9/14-1/14/15 | 15 | 84.06 | 18 | 84.38 | 31 | 97.03 | 20 | 89.74 | 29 | 31 (350+ 5v5 mins) |
He was having trouble stopping pretty much everything in this stretch, but oddly enough, it was Medium-Danger chances that baffled him most. Anyway, he was pretty much the league’s worst starter at this point.
Quick was able to pick himself up for the rest of the campaign, though his Sv%H and Sv%M were still below-average:
| GP | Sv%H | Sv%H NHL Rank | Sv%M | Sv%M NHL Rank | Sv%L | Sv%L NHL Rank | Sv% | Sv% NHL Rank | Qualified Goalies | |
| 1/15-4/11/15 | 36 | 82.56 | 22 | 92.75 | 23 | 98.54 | 5 | 93.07 | 13 | 36 (750+ 5v5 mins) |
His overall 5v5 Save% benefited greatly from a 98.34 Sv%L (second in the NHL), as Quick was below-average against scoring chances for most of the year. And Jones was a little worse than that!
This is Quick’s third straight season sporting a below-average 5v5 SC Sv%. I guess it’s a fool’s errand to expect much more.
Jones suffered a bit of a sophomore slump after an outstanding debut. Does he belong on either extreme? Fear the Fin seems to be sitting on the fence on this one.
Incoming backup Jhonas Enroth registered an excellent 94.25 Sv%M (third out of 31 qualified goalies, 4000+ 5v5 mins) from 2012-15. However his 82.86 Sv%H (23rd) and 96.83 Sv%L (28th) leave something to be desired.
Shorthanded
| SH TOI | Sv%M | Sv%M NHL Rank | Sv%H | Sv%H NHL Rank | Qualifying goalies | |
| Jonathan Quick | 339.4 | 87.5 | 21 | 72.09 | 29 | 35 (175+ SH mins) |
| Martin Jones | 56 | 83.33 | N/A | 66.67 | N/A | N/A |
In Part 1, I spotlighted LA’s mid-season penalty killing slump. They surrendered more SH goals in a 28-game stretch from early December (beginning with Richie’s folly in Buffalo) to mid-February than they did the rest of the year. We can key in on Quick’s role here:
| GP | Sv%H | Sv%H NHL Rank | Sv%M | Sv%M NHL Rank | Sv% | Sv% NHL Rank | Qualified Goalies | |
| 12/9/14-2/12/15 | 25 | 61.29 | 35 | 81.82 | 29 | 77.5 | 36 | 37 (50+ SH mins) |
Not coincidentally, this was around the time that Quick’s total game fell apart. So he was also more or less the league’s worst special teams keeper for a couple months too.
Nick didn’t track SH SC Sv%, but considering the data we do have, the results probably wouldn’t be encouraging. As Robert pointed out, Quick wasn’t exactly a PK god in ’12-13 either.
Enroth hasn’t been much better. From 2012-15, he was dead last in the league in Sv%M (out of 35 qualified goalies, 400+ SH mins)—his 75.86 was actually almost five points behind the next netminder. However, his 81.98 Sv%H ranked a promising 10th.
Anyway, this wraps up 200+ hours of tracking. Thanks again to Nick for helping out and Robert for guiding the way like Green Lantern’s light. And a big “Here’s looking at you, kid” if you’ve made it this far!
Stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and War on Ice.